Securing Your Wealth Amid Global Turmoil

welcome to the J Martin Show where we dissect the greatest Minds in geopolitics and finance so that we can better interpret the world my guest today is Jim Rogers Renaissance Man world famous investor best-selling author Guinness Book of World Records holder and much much more I was really excited to pick Jim's brain today on how he is processing and interpreting all of the global conflicts that we're watching unfold before our very eyes and where he is putting his cash in response where he's looking for opportunity fascinating conversation you're going to enjoy this one for anybody who is looking to become a commodity investor to build a portfolio of commodity Investments check out the commodity university.com a 10 chapter video course that my team and I have assembled to give you all the tools you need to get your start the commodity university.com now here is Mr Jim Rogers enjoy this is J Martin here I am with Jim Rogers Jim it's great to have you back in the program I really appreciate you making the time I am delighted to be here Jay good morning where I am I guess it's good evening where you are it is good evening yes um just after dinner on the West Coast Pacific Northwest now here's where I want to start with you today Jim you're you're one of the most traveled human beings on the planet um and you've also invested all over the world you know a true Renaissance man with your life experience both traveling and allocating Capital you know for multiple decades internationally when you look at the array of global conflicts right now seemingly on every corner of the Earth are you able to make some judgment calls on you know where emerging opportunity might be or is it too chaotic at this moment for you to make any judgments like that well I hope it's never so chaotic I can't make judgment there usually nearly always opportunities somewhere in some asset uh it may not be in Microsoft but it might be in cotton or something else it might be in usbekistan there many places and opportunities in the world usually uh I like to see the world I got I'm a little nuts I like it to experience all of it and see it all and one of the things I have found is the more you see the more opportunities you might fine but back to your earlier question you know there are several small Wars right now and historically small Wars often turn into big Wars eventually if you look back at 1912 or a few previous times in history these things have a habit of expanding and erupting I hope not certainly I hope not this time but it has happened historically would you draw any correlation I know that you've been calling for the next American recession to turn into a global recession and to be the worst that's occurred during your lifetime would you draw any correlation between that economic Outlook and the global the global hot Wars that are erupting around the world well first of all what want just to be clear about what I've said you know we've had bare markets for thousands of years and I guess I guess live long enough to Hope I live long enough to see many bar markets um because they always come whether we like it or not politicians sometimes say oh we've done away with bare markets don't believe them we're always have it we will always and have always had bare markets now one of as I look at the world now I see a lot of small Wars small Wars and historically small Wars have a habit of turning into big Wars let's hope it doesn't happen this time but it always has and you rightly point out that there is the situations around the world now and if it develops as history shows it will we're going leading to a big war sometime in the next year two three years I don't know when I don't know where but I know it has happen now stock markets and nearly all markets around the world are very happy right now many of them are making all-time highs and that's because central banks have have and are printing a lot of money and when there's a lot of money printing people have a good time you look at the bank of Japan it's staggering how much money they've printed and how much they've spent and borrowed likewise the Central Bank in the United States everybody's doing it so there are a lot of good feelings at the moment but Jay history shows when everybody's having a good time it's time to start thinking about hey wait a minute is this going to ever come to an end and it probably will so if we continue to see escalation then in terms of hot conflicts around the globe you know obviously hot war in Europe hot war in the Middle East a couple civil wars in the Sahar region of Africa Rising tensions in the South Pacific etc etc and now you know economic Wars that up again between the East and the West I might gravitate towards maybe things like nickel copper probably fertilizers agriculture products maybe grain things like this do any stand out to you right now Jim as as maybe smart places to park some money well I have a lot of cash and I have a lot of cash in US dollars in tomorrow I'm not selling short not yet because I don't see the hysteria that you usually see at a top it's developing but I don't think I see hysteria yet so I'm not selling short I'm just sitting here in cash mainly in US dollars because history shows that when people are panick they turn to the US dollar as a safe haven it's not a real Safe Haven anymore Jay because the US is the largest de nation in the history of the world but people still think it's a safe haven so what I suspect will happen when problems come again people will jump in the US dollar for safety it will make a peak I hope I'm smart enough to sell that Peak if it happens that way because the US dollar is very flawed us it's unbelievable the debts in the US and it's unbelievable the way they keep increasing the debts they think there's no problem so listening to you it sounds like you believe the markets are getting a bit too hot a bit too fun attracting a lot of money probably spontaneously but you're it's not quite at a time where you're beginning to sell short or put those trades on so maybe the party can keep going for a bit longer there's an election coming up in short order does that have something to do with it well you more or less said exactly the way I'm I see the world right now yes the election certainly has something to do with it because politicians try to make people happy when there's an election coming and the way you make people happy is spend money build things whatever and that's happening again it will happen again it will always happen that way now your comments on the US dollar that in times of turmoil people tend to sell whatever they can and flood to the US dollar and so you're sitting on a lot of US dollars right now um what are your thoughts on that cycle and how many events have occurred in the last three years that may have brought us closer to the end of that cycle I mean all World currencies eventually come to an end they always have they always will any thoughts on what ining we might be in today well I I timing the end of 100 year cycle is pretty difficult at least for me it is but it is certainly I see the signs are developing you know many people put nearly all of their money in US Dollars it's becoming more and more of a SA Haven in people's minds but the facts are the US is a huge debtor nation and the debts are getting higher every day that has never led to good things in the end if a nation becomes a huge debtor It ultimately leads to problems yes I own a lot of US dollars at the moment because I expect people to turn to the US dollar in terms of T turmoil if it comes again and the dollar will go higher and and I'll have to sell them but I don't know where I'm going to put the money then Jay if you know please don't renounce it send me an email send me a private email because I'm trying to figure out where to put the money next which currency if there's another currency and I haven't found it yet yeah that was sort of my next question is do any assets or currencies stand out to you to be in a position to rival not as a you know replacement for the US dollar but as a decent second choice you know we've seen record Central Bank buying of physical gold as as one maybe example but does anything stand out to you Jim as a potential best second choice for Safe Haven well in theory it should be the Chinese rmbe but the renm is not a convertible currency so it cannot be the currency that's not convertible that can never be the world's International medium of exchange so I haven't found it yet I am looking as I say every currency I look at has its own peculiar problems someday we're going to have to get out of US dollars but I don't know where to go yet and I certainly own some gold and I own some silver but they are not going to be the international currency right so when you look at the Commodities Market Jim does anything stand out to you as ignored hated undervalued right now well there's nothing that's quite that bad at the moment I mean agriculture is certainly not popular nobody wants to be a farmer these days which means we should probably all be Farmers but no I don't I mean silver has been down Gold's making all-time Highs but Silver's still down 40 or 45% from its all-time high it's been moving recently but silver I guess silver is certainly one of the perhaps undervalued Commodities that I see in the world and most agricultural products are somewhat neglected and when you say agricultural products are you talking about you know pot as and fertilizers or where are you looking no I'm talking about things that people produce and trade uh corn wheat cotton you know these are the things that their Futures markets in there's no future I don't think there's a future Market in Poes at least there hasn't been that I know of how do you interpret the Central Bank gold buying over the last 24 months setting 50-year records there's a lot of talk about Central bank's pivoting away from the US dollar does that make sense to you or or is that overthinking it well I think most people know that the US dollar has serious problems we are the largest debt nation in the world to repeat myself I'm not the only one who knows that and the debts keep going up every day every week every month so many central banks are starting to notice that also Washington recently in recent years has started saying if they don't like you they put sanctions on you they won't let you use the US dollar well even our friends are saying wait a minute wait a minute they could do that to us too so many people including our friends her starting to look for a competitor to the dollar in case something happens and they should we all should I am then I'm an American U but I have not found yet the place to go that the world is going to go to central banks are increasing their Holdings of gold because historically for thousands of years gold and silver have been places who put money as a refuge well again I'm not the only one who knows that many central banks are starting to increase their Holdings of gold because they know that if the US gets angry at them they're gonna have a problem yeah that's that's been a big part of the conversation for the last couple of years if if there was a a way to play Devil's Advocate could you look at that situation where the United States sanction $600 billion of Russian USD reserves and say yeah that would was Reckless they sent a message to the world that said your US dollar reserves are no longer safe and that was foolish but the other side of the argument could it be that the United States needed to send a super strong message to the world that nobody is safe from us sanctions and so the world better get in line because the global chess board is about to be reshuffled and um you don't want to cross us with that be what do you think about that well that's certainly The Way Washington think is thinking and what they're to do they want to make sure that everybody knows that the US is in charge and they better do what the US says yeah that's their plan but as I say some people are starting to say wait a minute that could happen to us and we have to find an alternative because if it happens to us what are we going to do nobody wants to be stuck with all of their money Frozen and unable to do any kind of Commerce nobody wants to be in that situation and Washington's recent actions make many people including our friends say we have to be prepared in case what are your thoughts on the health of the Chinese economy at present well the Chinese economy got hit by a gigantic housing bubble and by the virus the covid virus so they got a double attack uh it is bouncing along I mean that's making a bottom in my view it is making a bottom it's not a just a down and up a kind of bottom it's a bumpy bottom and in my view the Chinese economy is bumping along at a bottom and making a bottom but it's not a as I say it's not a onewe bottom it's going to take some time for the bottom to work its way out as has often happened in world history now if I've if I'm quoting you correct I've heard you say in the past the 20th century belonged to the West the 21st century will belong to the East and I believe you were referring to China do you still hold that conviction well China is certainly the largest economy in the in Asia and it is certainly made a dramatic progress in the last 30 or 40 years though and is now the second largest our largest economy in the world depending on how you measure and I don't see much that's going to yes China will certainly have problems as the world develops but I don't see anybody else that can rival China as the most important economy in the world in the next few decades if there's somebody else please let me know right and and is is this I to pull on that thread a little bit is that making the assumption that they will take the global power Torch from the United States or are you looking at this more like a multi-polar world for the Next Generation well throughout history there's always been somebody on top and there have always been people rising and others declining so that's if we're just seeing history repeated so the US has been the number one economy in the world the Chinese are now have been rising and are rising they will continue to rise but if you look at us history we had some terrible problems along the way we had some huge recess depressions we had a big Civil War we've had bankruptcies but still the us became the most successful country in the world China will certainly have many problems as they rise but I don't see anybody else that is going to rise to replace the US except possibly China okay and so forgive me if I if I'm interpreting this incorrectly but you might be saying that it's too early to count the United States out simultaneously is that correct well in 1924 Britain was the number one country in the world the richest most powerful I mean they're still there it's 100 years later they had gigantic problems along the way they went bankrupt at one point but still they're still there and there's still a lot of people having great success in making money money so the US is not going to disappear overnight I assure you nobody ever has no country that has lost the Pinnacle has dropped unless they lost a war or something has dropped immediately us is not going to drop immediately don't worry hey you know and the US dollar is not going to drop immediately even as people move away from the dollar and I'm trying to figure out where to go myself I don't know where they're going to go so the US dollar won't disappear overnight don't worry yeah I appreciate that all right it's it's good because in in macro especially it's seductive to talk about the the collapse you know of of the global Empire the collapse of the United States the collapse of the world Reserve currency and it's it's strikes me you know it's it's easy to get Sensational because people are drawn to that but it's rarely how history has ever played out and those cataclysmic events however it's often the most dominant conversation well unfortunately we've always history showed there's always been some cataclysmic events usually war is the most cataclysmic uh and we have not the world has not figured out a way to eliminate War I mean war is pretty foolish but still human beings do it have repeatedly done it and that may be the next cataclysmic event I see these small Wars developing history shows that small Wars sometimes turn into big Wars it could happen again and if it does the next time it's going to be very bad because there are lots of money and lots of weapons scattered around the world yes yes there is so your portfolio right now is you mentioned that you're heavy cash where else are you heavily exposed at present well I'm looking at China because China is depressed um China is not going to disappear I haven't found anything recently usbekistan I've been buying shares in usbekistan not too many but i' I'm hoping to buy more in usbekistan usbekistan you know a few hundred years ago was one of the most successful and powerful countries in the world the Communist ruined usbekistan but now they're different people trying to change usbekistan and it has vast resources of many kind but other than usbekistan and perhaps China you know many stock markets are near alltime highs Jay and when that happens I anyway don't particularly like jumping into markets at alltime highs and it's everybody's having a good time the US has gone the longest period in American history without a big bare Market that doesn't mean it's going to have to have a bare Market soon but we always have after so such a long time we have had bare markets and we will probably have them again I think you're probably right when you look at Argentina and the changes that the newly elected um Javier mle is implementing does it make you optimis IC on Argentina's future he's got the country back to a a surplus a government surplus he's eliminating government jobs by the thousands what's your take on on Malay and is he can make a difference well I read the same thing you do yes he's saying some intelligent things he's taking some intelligent actions and Argentina is a country that has a lot of resources the only worry I've seen this happen happened several times in Argentina you know if you gone back 100 150 years ago Argentina was if if a European was thinking about going to the Western Hemisphere they were trying to decide between the US and Argentina those were the two choices those were the two great potential success stories obviously the small ones went to the US because Argentina has gone bankrupt a few times in the intervening times but Argentina has had some great success at times there was a time that if you were in Europe and somebody walked into a restaurant or some people would say ah there's a rich Argentine you know because they were that well known and that successful Unfortunately they often then went the other way and so with this with this new president you know I know a lot of people Stanley duck Miller recently uh Elon Musk another saying this is a pivotal turning point for the country and the worst years are behind it yes 100 150 years ago is one of the wealthiest countries in the world is it too soon to say that's probably the direction it's headed here or is that putting the car everybody who says this is right I can read the same thing they do it is happening my own I just am cautioning people to realize this is not the first time I mean I've seen this Rodeo before and let's hope that Argentina 100 years from now will be one of the great success stories of the world historically that it has happened before in Argentina it has never lasted maybe it will this time I don't know any reason that it will not except that it never has if you weren't raising your daughters in Singapore Jim where would you raise them if not where you're at well I wanted my daughters to speak Chinese um because in my view in their lifetime China is going to be the most successful or one of the most successful and strongest countries in the world uh therefore I wanted them to know Chinese I don't know another I guess if there were another I guess Spanish would be something that they should be know and be fluent in because Spanish has spoken in a lot of countries but I guess I I don't see anybody besides China on the horizon or Mandarin on the hor maybe Spanish but Chinese is what I am I've taught my children and I've taught them about Asia you can ask me in 80 years whether I was right or not do you ever consider moving back to the United States well of course um of course I do I am an American citizen a taxpayer voter of course but at the moment we're happy I mean we live in Singapore which is a very very efficient country it's a very place an very easy place to live everything works in Singapore so we're quite happy here um maybe they'll throw us out or maybe Singapore will make serious mistakes but at the moment I don't see any reason to leave of course we think about the us we're Americans but at the moment we don't leave any other countries in Asia like maybe Indonesia any thoughts on Indonesia as a place to relocate not necessarily for you but just for westerners in general well Indonesia is a country with huge resources and it's been badly managed for decades but now it seems to be changing everything I read about Indonesia in recent weeks months indicates that they are beginning to change and to do the right things and to manage the country properly so yes Indonesia has huge resources a large population and a good location so it could well be a great success again other I mean Korea once Korea opens and becomes one country again it's going to be extremely exciting and prosperous but other than Korea and Indonesia well maybe Vietnam Vietnam is moving in the right directions it's got a good location it's got a large population uh and it's a population that's more or less homogeneous which is usually good if you have a country um but other than Indonesia Korea Vietnam those are the main opport I mean India of course is changing Finly for the first time in my life the Indian government seems to understand what should be done done they've often said things but this time they seem to understand it and mean it so that's another name on the list there are a few countries but and there's a lot of people in Asia as you well know I mean there're gigantic numbers of people out here so that often leads to an opportunity as well can I ask what what do you read on a daily basis to ensure you feel caught up with what matters well I guess the single most important thing for me to do that is the financial times um to had historically been an English newspaper the Japanese now own it uh I I'd say the financial times would be if I could only have one thing that's what I would want to have could would you mind walking me through a little bit of your your morning routine when it comes to your the work side of your life well if I get up in time I take my daughter to school um she can certainly get to school on her own now she's 16 actually she's goes to the top school in Singapore HP girl school and she was recently to my shock and Delight elected president of the student council she's the only Caucasian in the school and it was amazing I'm very proud but I'm shocked she was elected president of the student council but we take her to school or she gets to school on her own but then I basically start reading the financial times if you will I read a couple of newspapers to see what has been happening in the world I try to exercise every day um and by then and while I'm exercising I can use my computer you know to check the world and check email and things like that uh by then it's lunchtime for a young Speculator trying to get their start would you have any tips or recommendations Jim for where they might look or how they might approach what you approached so long ago well when I was first starting out I saw these old or more experienced and educated people I thought they knew what they were doing I thought they certainly knew more than I did didn't take me long to understand they didn't know what they were doing either you know the world is full of people who invest who not really good at it so I learned that I had to do figure out my own way I certainly made a couple of mistakes at one point I lost every I made a gigantic success and few months later I lost everything typical beginner uh in the markets but what I have what I learned and what I have learned is everybody has to figure out their own way and pursue their own way don't listen to other people do it your way if you want to be successful and it's not easy I have learned you it's not easy it looks easy everybody can say ah I could have bought Apple no if you could have bought Apple why didn't you buy Apple 20 years ago 25 years ago everybody thinks it's easy but it's not it seems like a relatively liberating thought or realization when you said you know you saw these older folks who were speculating you assumed they were very smart you came to realize most of them weren't they didn't know what they were doing either and I think that's a is that a pretty empowering can a pretty empowering belief to have to realize ah they're all everybody's making it up so it's okay that I don't know either I can figure this out just like anyone well I hope that everybody comes to the realization that yes I have to figure it out myself does that mean you will get it right no I certainly I made mistakes along the way as I was learning as I came to that realization and I figured I have to figure out this out for myself but even then I made mistakes along the way everybody will no matter how you who you are and how good you are I don't know a magic wand I have never found it at one point I was a professor at a famous business school and all the students always wanted to know which chapter should I read which page which page has the answer everybody and I would have to say to them there is no chapter 3 with all the answers there is no page 37 this is not easy takes a lot of work and there's no simple answer and if you know a simple answer Jay send it to me don't broadcast it yeah we'll do you know sure you made a lot of mistakes your successes have more than amortised those that's for certain if you were to chalk up those successes to a couple character traits does anything stand out like you know you mentioned work ethic curiosity boldness do want stand out to you Jim P persistence just don't give up um it takes a lot of digging to figure out what is correct and accurate and just don't give up P persevere persevere persevere most of us don't like to persevere as work we all want an easy answer I want to be rich this weekend too but I have experienced enough now to know it's not easy and it's going to take a lot of work my kids are younger than yours by by a bit of a margin I'm curious if you've unlocked any secrets to teach or encourage perseverance to your kids well you will save the world if you can teach everybody perseverance um no I don't know a trick or an answer except somehow or another I seem to have taught my children to persevere maybe it's mimicking us their mother and me um I guess that's the only answer is to set good examples young people mimic their parents MIM they notice what their parents do whe whether the parents know what or not kids certainly mimic and observe and follow their parents so setting a good example is the only thing I can tell you any book recommendations and your books are they qualify if you want to go there well certainly I like my books uh you know I like the lessons I have learned and try to pass those lessons on but also you know my books I didn't set out to be a writer I set out to have adventure and then I wrote about the adventures and people seemed to be interested so I I guess my answer is have Adventures see the world and then tell people about it that's what I try that's what I I didn't set out to do that but that's what how it has evolved and I certainly still like Adventure and to see the world I love that look I really appreciate your time tonight this morning in your case coming on the show uh coming back on the show and getting in front of my audience allowing me to pick your brain I really do appreciate it well thank you Jay it's always fun I guess you have to go to the Disco now but I have to go read the financial times okay you have fun at the Disco see you next time thank you all right bye bye bye bye

Channel: The Jay Martin Show

Views: 42,658

Keywords: Gold, Silver, stocks, Investing, money, jay martin show, jay martin, cambridge house, global, global markets, international trade, geopolitics

Id: YLs8otx8rDc

Length: 35min 12sec (2112 seconds)

Published: Sat May 25 2024