Putin is losing control of his 'warlords' says Lt. General Ben Hodges

Russian Defenders will break because I don't think in most of these trench lines that the soldiers that are there sitting in those trenches and bunkers are well trained confident disciplined and so the potential for the same cracking open but I say potential is is very real hello and welcome to front line for times radio with Me Kate Chabot and today we're talking to a retired American General Lieutenant General Ben Hodges in his 38 years for the U.S army he's commanded in Iraq and Afghanistan from 2014 to 2017 he was commander U.S army Europe and now he is a senior advisor to the NGO human rights first Ben Hodges welcomed Frontline really good to speak to you and of course we're going to be talking about Ukraine today how do you see it do you see we're entering into phase 2.0 in this War I think right now with sort of the Calm before the storm the momentum has shifted so much to Ukraine's side ukrainians are preparing for a counter-offensive that we all think is coming soon every day there's new good news about countries like the UK Germany others wanting to provide resources to the Ukrainian side and there's uh generally bad news almost every day for the Russian side so I'm very optimistic about what lies ahead and recently this week we've seen a new development it is incursions into Russia itself in the belga road region this is forces for the international Legion in Ukraine what do you make of this exactly well this is very interesting because there's three or four plausible explanations of what happened uh clearly looking at the pictures of the aftermath the Russians staged something to make it look like they had destroyed the entire incursion but it didn't because these are Russian Fighters fighting for the Ukrainian cause or else they are taking advantage of an opportunity fighting for their own cause I would imagine that there is some connection with Ukrainian intelligence or something like that but I I can't tell for sure and and other than the distraction it causes for the Russian side you know why would the ukrainians do it I see benefit for the ukrainians but I don't know for a fact that they have directed this we're talking about the freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian volunteer Corps how seriously should they be taken do you think well um it kind of depends on the Russian reaction if the Russians take it very seriously that this is a real distraction for them and if they have to start pulling resources from somewhere else to strengthen their own border I think this is a good thing because it takes them away from where I think Ukraine's main effort is going to be and how much do you think you need is behind them did they Supply the weapons for example again hard to say I mean we should keep in mind that Russia particularly on the frontiers of Russia is not like Moscow I mean the the control of the government extends not 100 to every little village in town so it's not inconceivable that you could have people who were not pro-kremlin that are Russian that would be able to get their hands on equipment weapons uniforms things like that you know of course there are soldiers from Belarus or people from Belarus who are fighting for Ukraine there are Russians who are fighting for Ukraine this seems like some sort of aspect of that so at the moment do you see this more as a distraction rather than something that's going to lead to some kind of escalation yes I think this is a distraction that causes problems for the Kremlin and of course they have to explain it and if this makes it more difficult for Russia to mass against Ukrainian forces then I think it's a good thing there are reports today that Russia has launched an attack on a medical clinic and nepro this may well turn out to be a war crime how optimistic are you that the people who've committed war crimes are going to be held to account and brought to Justice yeah well of course 100 it is a war crime to Target hospitals and you know these are Precision weapons that are being used so these are not accidents and there's been a pattern of going after medical facilities as well as other civilian infrastructure I think that one of the things we should be doing is posting with the times for example the pictures of the entire chain of command everybody that has a role to play from the Kremlin on down to the captain that's responsible for the battery that launches the rocket or the missile this is who they are because I think this will be one of the most effective ways to start putting pressure on Russians when they realize they cannot do this with impunity and indeed the NGO you advise human rights first is working in Ukraine and is advocating for changes to U.S policy to make it more easy to bring people to Justice um isn't it time for the U.S to join the international criminal court and support absolutely I just pinned a opinion piece that was published in Washington DC the other day along with two former Supreme Allied commanders of Europe General Breedlove and General West Clark advocating for at least our secretary of defense should support the ICC the international criminal court in the collection of evidence so to help them collect evidence of these war crimes and I I hope that our government will decide it is time that we need to be a signatory to the Rome statute which gives that jurisdiction we have to live up to our own talking points the Secretary of Defense well he hadn't called me personally yet um the the concern there in the Department of Defense has always been could this be used against American soldiers in a way I mean let's be candid soldiers from the United States are not the same as soldiers from from a a country that has a different sort of profile so I think that's part of the reason for the caution however the president supports this Secretary of State supports this and the Department of Defense seems to be the most conservative in this case and I hope they'll change do you think they will change I think eventually we will we've been hearing for a couple of weeks now that the Ukrainian counter offensive is is coming is it coming and when so journalist illusiony the chief of the general staff there was an amazing Soldier I mean he's very good I've been impressed with their discipline we know more about the Russians than we do about the ukrainians which is as it should be but I think uh this a counteroffensive which everyone feels is coming it'll happen when they're ready for it too and I think he has three conditions number one are his own forces ready do they have enough strength armored brigades that can penetrate on a narrow front the dense Russian linear defenses that's one thing and so all the work that UK has been doing the equipment Germany's provided what the U.S is doing in other countries that's what's happening right now I think they probably are just a few weeks away from being ready in terms of Their Own Strength the second condition what about the Russian forces have they been degraded enough to give the best chance for Ukraine's attack to be successful that means destroying ammunition destroying fuel creating chaos in the rear area and then of course the Third condition is the ground the traffic ability is the soil dry enough to be able to support the churn of hundreds of heavy tracked armored vehicles when those three conditions are set I think he tells president zielinski we're ready to go and how do you think that will be conducted uh well I think you're going to see what we would call combined arms meaning mechanized infantry tanks Engineers moving and armored vehicles artillery and air defense moving along overwhelming combat power masked on a very narrow front we don't have they don't have to attack the whole 900 miles they just have to get through these defenses to I think the Asaf sea Coastline to to cut the so-called land bridge I think that's what when it starts that's what will happen but right now what's going on what we call shaping operations to set those conditions presumably the F-16 planes have been promised the US now says it's going to help in the training of the pilots to fly them they won't come soon enough for this counter-offensive not not for the opening of it unfortunately no what difference do you think they'll make when they do arrive well this will be a significant increase in capability for the Ukrainian side and of course it's not just the airplane it's it's the pilots it's the system are they prepared to conduct operations whether in support of ground operations or air-to-air to keep Russian aircraft away to sort of almost create like a bubble that pushes away Russia's ability to to counter Ukraine's offensive now obviously we should have made this decision eight ten months ago we'd have f-16s for multiple countries being flown by Ukrainian Pilots already we are where we are it will still help when they show up in the next three or four months and ukrainians will always be faster than we think we are they are proving this over and over when they start having an effect in the next three months or so um if I'm if you're on the Russian side you're like oh Ghana you know we've been hanging on waiting for the West to quit supporting Ukraine and now this shows up so that that will have a I think an important psychological effect in favor of Ukraine as well the Wagner group of mercenaries claimed to have captured the city of Bahamut and they say they will now leave it to Russian soldiers we've seen their boss yevgeny Prego wandering around on camera saying that he's doing that and congratulating the The Mercenaries do you think either can hold it well of course uh Mr pregosian takes no orders from the Russian Journal staff shoigu garasimov they he doesn't listen to them he blames them when he doesn't get what he wants or if it took so long to take Bach Moot and I think you know his business model is to okay I'm done I've done my part now I'm going to take my what's what I have left and go somewhere else so what situations that leave the the Russian forces in who he says is going to replace them in Bahamut yeah this will be interesting um this will uh these are forces that the Russians will have to find from somewhere else which of course is what ukrainians want the reason they have they fought so hard around Bak moot was because other than the fact it's a city of their fellow citizens from a strategic standpoint it was not vital but when they see that Russia is willing to spend thousands of lives to take that City then Ukraine said okay we'll do that but without diverting our armored forces that we really need for the upcoming counter-offensive and I think if Russia continues to put resources in their Ukraine will continue to try and fix them if they don't then what you'll see of course is Ukraine probably moves forward and retakes that City you've already alluded to the state of the relationship between the head of the Wagner group you've got any precaution and the Russian generals what do you think the relationship of the Wagner group is with the Kremlin and with Afghani precaution and the Kremlin there there has to be some sort of uh confidence by Mr pagosian that he's not going to be tossed out of a window somewhere the fact that he's so publicly criticized in a veiled sort of way uh president of Putin but do you know this these guys are like Warlords you've got Mr kadira of the Chechen you've got pregosian with Wagner And there are several other mercenary groups and then you've got these so-called regular Russian forces I think that all of them are trying to figure out how do they stay alive and and what's their status going to be when this when this war is over in Ukraine has won do they want to be the Savior for Russia do they want to be the hero for President Putin or are they waiting for a chance to break away um I don't know how this is all going to play out the good news for Ukraine and for us is that this incoherence and the hatred between the various leaders on the Russian side guarantees that they will not have a coherent defensive plan and they won't be able to fight their defense any kind of a coherent way so this is a vulnerability that Ukraine certainly and perhaps even us can explore it it is a vulnerability as you say but a report out this week by the Royal United Services Institute is saying the regular Russian forces arachi although they were criticized at the beginning as being chaotic they're actually getting better they're learning on the job what's your assessment I think there probably are I mean Russi is is correct that there probably are some places that some some units that have the ability and are learning tactically how to fight better so we're talking about units getting better at securing or clearing a village or a town or large buildings you would you would expect that to happen but they have not gotten any better at the big stuff that really counts they still cannot integrate air and ground operations what we would call joint operations the black seed Fleet still not doing anything except launching missiles against apartment buildings and even this morning you know the report's out about a very very modern Russian ship being hit by a Ukrainian drone a maritime drone so the they haven't got better on the big things that really count they still cannot get air superiority they still could not interdict the line of communication that brings equipment and ammunition from Poland and Ukraine not one train has been destroyed since this thing started how can that be so you know if they're better at entering a building or clearing a trench so be it weapons and and uh equipment will obviously be key to Ukrainian forces and moving forward but if you were commanding forces on the ground what kind in preparation for this counter-offensive what kind of tactics would you be using I think what we're going to see uh what I would hope to see is the payoff of training that's been done by the British army the U.S army and other allies to help Ukrainian forces conduct a combined arms attack where you integrate tanks mechanized infantry Engineers that are moving in armored vehicles that will clear paths through the lanes to breach through obstacles or you've got artillery that is pouring fired out on top of the Defenders along this narrow Frontage along which they'll attempt to achieve a penetration and they'll also bring forward some air defense with them short-range air defense to help keep away the Russian drones and other responses that the Russians will do so I would imagine there will be two or three penetration efforts and then probably one or two that are decoys or deception or supporting attacks so that the Russians can't fix exactly where this is all going to happen I believe that potential is there for them to be very successful that they I mean there's this thing if if you're not well trained and disciplined and confident and you hear that the enemy has bypassed you or they're behind you you panic Russian Defenders will break because I don't think in most of these trench lines that the soldiers that are there sitting in those trenches and bunkers are well trained confident disciplined and so the potential for the same cracking open but I say potential is is very real of course we know that war the nature of war is unchanging it's violent it's uncertain there's friction there's fog so things could go wrong in some places and to address how long this war will go on there are some schools of thought that President Putin will try and spin it out for as long as possible perhaps until after the presidential elections in the U.S and then there are those that say that what he really wants is a settlement a deal a peace deal broker by the U.S where do you think it lies the truth his only hope and I do mean the only hope that the Kremlin has is for the West to lose interest or to get tired or to get distracted by something else that's the only thing he can do there there is no other thing they can do to bring about a successful conclusion from a Russian perspective and you're right I mean of course they know exactly when the American elections are British elections are polish and only and on and on fortunately the U.S election is 18 months away fortunately the U.S Congress continues to support this effort in a very very strong bipartisan way Stand Fast there are three or four loud mouths on both extremes but by and large the Congress is in strong support so I think if my president and I have a not only great respect for my president but also he's done a good job and you've got 50 Nations sticking together not just NATO Nations continuing to support Ukraine but he has stopped short of saying exactly what the desired strategic outcome should be you know and he also has stopped short of saying we want Ukraine to win instead we say things like we're with you for as long as it takes that's that's not a that's not something solid enough to generate the kind of support that's needed to bring about a rapid conclusion if he were to say we want Ukraine to win and then prime minister would say it when this cancer would say it this this whole thing could be over by this is that what you want them to do absolutely and this whole thing would be over by the end of the year I mean because then we would stop coming over excuses while we can't provide atacums or we can't provide F-16 why do you think there has been this delay this hesitation in the provision of Weaponry um of course I have zero responsibility as an old retired guy but the president does have a lot of responsibility and so he has to be very thoughtful about the potential for Russia to escalate to use a nuclear weapon I think that's uh it's exaggerated I think there is about almost a zero chance of Russia uses a nuclear weapon of course they have thousands but almost zero is not zero you're right you're right but if if the United States and UK can be stopped from doing what needs to be done when any country threatens to use a tactical nuclear weapon that's a signal to everybody else in the world that has a nuke or wants a nuke like huh we we want some of that so I think this is the place where actually we we take a cold hard look at this and realize there are zero positive outcomes for Vladimir Putin if they use the nuclear weapon zero and so I think the people around him also realize there are no positive outcomes and that it's so unlikely that they would do it the quickest way to end this war in a way that we want it is to help Ukraine get it done now I would add this I think one other another factor out there is we're not sure what it looks like okay let's say Ukraine does win what happens what what happens um China has signaled that they do not want to see a Russian collapse I don't know that Russia and China and Russia are this these friends Without Limits clearly there are limits to this and maybe there is a role for China in some way that gives Russia an exit out of this mess that they have put themselves into but it cannot be I would I personally would never advocate for Russia being able to retain even one square meter of Ukrainian Sovereign territory to include Crimea in which case what kind of exit could Russia be given to get out of this message well look this is um you know when the Soviet Union made the decision to get around to get out of Afghanistan you didn't have all the nations of the world ringing their hands like oh we need to give the Russians an off-ramp they just made the decision to leave because they don't have to worry a whole lot about public opinion yes they were their mothers complaining about their sons being killed in Afghanistan but that's different from a leader of a democratic country having to worry about what millions of people actually think so an autocrat can always just say all right I'm changing my mind I'm changing the narrative and I think this is what could happen I don't think the loss of Crimea equals collapse of Putin's regime what do you think is at stake in this war and how well do you think the American public understand it and appreciate it well this is a excellent question so far I think most Americans instinctively feel like you know this is Ukraine it's a it's not a perfect democracy but they've only been at it for about 30 years so we've been at it for 250 Years and we're not perfect so there is a sense of the little guy in the Russia okay um I don't think there's a lot of sympathy for Russia except perhaps on some people on Fox News having said that the burden is on the president to explain why this matters it matters because this is about American Security because our security depends on Europe's security our prosperity depends on Europe's prosperity and all that requires stable secure Europe energy supplies Supply chains Refugee problem is not so great their people stay at home that's one thing the second thing this International rules-based order I mean that sounds like a political scientist phrase but if you unpack it we're talking about respect for borders respect for sovereignty That Matters to every American respect for freedom of navigation that That's essential for our economy that depends on trade respect for human rights respect for international agreements Russia hates all that stuff it's important for us it's important for all of our European allies and China is watching to see are we really willing to defend those values and if we don't show that we are willing to defend those values what are the consequences I think the chance of China making a miscalculation like Russia did goes up are you talking about Taiwan Taiwan South China Seas a variety of other places we don't have to have a company it's not inevitable that we have a conflict with China in fact I think if U.S Canada Europe our our Pacific allies all when you combine the economic power and the Diplomatic power of all those Nations we can hold China accountable force them to live up to the agreements they've signed respect for sovereignty international law but if we don't then they are going to continue seeking leverage in Africa the Middle East and in other places so are you saying then that what happens in Ukraine will determine the future relationships with China you said it much better than I did I didn't I tell you I didn't um think is the most realistic the most credible realistic possibility of ending this war the Ukraine liberates Crimea uh Crimea is the decisive terrain of this War uh Ukraine will never be safe or secure as long as Russia sits there even after some sort of terrible negotiated settlement they'll never be able to rebuild their economy as long as Russia can block all of Ukraine's ports from Crimea so that's that's the key that can be done I believe that can be done by the end of this summer after that the Don bass I think the Kremlin will there will be a lot less enthusiasm for supporting the so-called separatists out there in luhans and Donetsk ukrainians will be able to clear that up anyway Crimea is the key and I think that gets done before the fall Commander U.S army between 2014 and 2017. if you're in that post now what would you actually be doing at the moment I would I'd probably be as far and close to the Border as I could possibly be trying to feel what was going on there talking to our polish allies talking to our Lithuanian allies and uh going up into Finland understanding what's going on up there but the key for U.S now is not combat power our combat power obviously our job is to defend all of NATO territory but the uh what what the U.S Army in Europe is doing now with our German allies our British allies and others this flow of equipment and ammunition that emanates from Southeastern Poland and jejov it's incredible what they have done I mean it's astounding I would be focused on making sure that that was uninterrupted and this um this war has broken out what five years after you left that post what's it like for you watching that now well the way you said that I would like to say well the Russians would have never attacked while I was there but the but the truth is they did attack when I was there because 2014 is when the war started of course when I was when I was in command so um I think the to truthfully answer your question of course I have to say I'm envious in a way of of the guys that are there now dealing with the challenges wrestling with all the logistics the intelligence working with our allies I loved that part of being a soldier I love that but there's so much talent in our army of people that continue to come up it was time for me to get out of the way and did you ever envisage what happened in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and did you ever foresee what was going to happen now with this War I actually did believe um that this was going to happen I did I didn't Envision exactly how it was happening why did you think that um well because I could see uh I was in the Army for a very long time and I you know you watch what the Russians are doing and you we failed to respond after they invaded George in 2008 we failed to adequately respond after they supported the Assad regime and um you know I'm looking around the U.S army was getting smaller in Europe the British army was almost completely off the continent back home the German bundes fair was getting smaller it had lost its Edge the Russians in the meanwhile were modernizing and so while I overestimated Russian capabilities things were going in there in the wrong direction so in 2000 2015 I did an interview with Wall Street Journal and I said I think we're going to be in a war in about five years but that was not that was just based on a practical military assessment and and believing that the Russians only respected strength and um I was not very popular when I said that but you're not in the Army for popularity you're there to try and make sure that you never ever have to fight a war by demonstrating that you're prepared and yes uh it is very expensive to to do what needs to be done for Effective deterrence but look at the cost now because this war is what failed to turns looks like and and the cost in lives as well as money is enormous and it was all all avoidable any unpopular insights you want to share with us now well look um when the Russians made their miscalculations it was based on overconfidence on their part that they would just be able to blow in the Ukraine there was no way the ukrainians were going to fight back secondly we the West had not done a whole lot to give them cause for concern I mentioned the previous times where we had not responded and then of course in the U.S we were a mess you know the former president denying he'd ever lost the election January 6 all of this embarrassing rupture in American society plus the way the war in Afghanistan had come to an end I mean you could almost imagine the Kremlin saying these guys are not they're not going to do anything Germany was still building North stream too up until late in 2021 so um that's the for me this is the biggest lesson is that it's what we already knew you know you you can't appease when you're dealing with a a brutal autocracy like Russia they only respect strength and I know I sound like a scratch record but it's a fact they've never been anything but an empire for almost five centuries and uh until they are defeated on the battlefield there will never be a reckoning and we'll just whoever comes after Putin will be something like him just with a less effective military Lieutenant General Ben Hodges it's been a pleasure to speak to you thank you very much for your time thanks for the opportunity you've been watching Frontline four times radio with me catcher Beau our thanks to Louis Sykes our producer and my thanks to you for watching bye-bye

Channel: Times Radio

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Id: rcRKBMQkCIw

Length: 29min 33sec (1773 seconds)

Published: Sun May 28 2023