Putin loses control of Black Sea as Ukraine creates 'zone of operation' for naval drones

uh you've then got Ukrainian saying right if you're going to attack our green facilities we're going to treat the Black Sea uh as a zone of operation and they've clearly developed some very effective means of hitting Uh Russian naval forces so each side tries to show that there's a cost to be paid by the other for its next step and on and on it goes until hopefully we end up with some type of solution that is positive for Ukraine I I don't know the precise details and what we do know um is a Russian forces have a long track record of attacking uh healthcare related facilities and I mean going back to the Syrian war in particular where they deliberately targeted hospitals Etc it is a powerful way to undermine civilian morale it has a military Dimension as well when you're a middle middle of a severe conflict so it is entirely possible that it was a deliberately targeted attack of course it's also possible that it was a successful shoot down of a missile or drone by Ukrainian forces that then landed there though I have to say the and there's been a lot of damage and death and destruction caused that way but the specificity of this here does sound like it probably was a targeted attack it comes of course after Ukraine appears to be stepping up its attacks on Russian shipping in the Black Sea um what do you make of what's going on there we've seen this quite dramatic uh footage haven't we of these remote uh C drones attacking some of those Russian targets well I it's it's part of the evolution of this awful brutal ongoing conflict um you know it's each person counters the other person's attack so we're we're in the second month roughly of a very slow-moving uh Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russian forces in at least two or three parts to the front line of Ukraine um and it's going slowly uh but nonetheless uh what you always want to do when you're defending and the Russians now you could argue are sort of Defending what they've gained is to counter-attack counter-attacking on Kiev is not as successful as it was because the ukrainians have deployed very effectively a lot of lots of anti uh missile defense systems whereas protecting the South Odessa some of those grain ports and uh shipping facilities they're much less well protected they're more vulnerable so an effective way to try to both um you know counter-attack to the Ukrainian counter-jack is to hit uh these green facilities which are very important for Ukrainian hard currency earnings at a time when it's economy is vulnerable and of course hitting its um you know energy facilities and so on is not as important that'll be done in the winter so uh you've then got the Ukrainian saying right if you're going to attack our green facilities we're going to treat the Black Sea uh as a zone of operation and they've clearly developed some very effective means of hitting Uh Russian naval forces so each side tries to show that there's a cost to be paid by the other for its next step and on and on it goes until hopefully we end up with some type of solution that is positive for Ukraine because although there was a huge discussion about what this counter-offensive by Ukraine uh would result in we've seen along that front line along the east of the country um although there have been some Villages and towns taken not a huge change in where that front line is partly because the Russians are so well dug in but it does look as though the ukrainians are now very much taking the attack to the Russians Beyond Ukraine's own territory onto the Russian Fleet in the Black Sea and of course those aerial drone attacks in Moscow absolutely and I think the way it's seen in um Kiev is that as long as they can survive with the support of Western uh weaponry and Western Material and economic and humanitarian humanitarian uh support um then in a way they can use that base to try to shape the political environment under which Vladimir Putin is operating by taking the fight as you said into Russia proper and to show to Russian citizens and to the Russian leadership we can wait this out as long as you can remember a critical part of Putin's uh strategy here is to say to the ukrainians you will never be able to take back what we have taken and we can wait you out longer than you can wait out each side is trying to show to the other that they have the capacity to escalate and to survive and I think it's incredibly important for the ukrainians to show um that this is a war that can affect all Russians this idea that it's a special National military operation that is not a war which is what Vladimir Putin has been trying to say to his population is being punctured by the Drone attacks in Moscow some of the cross-border incursions that took place involving Uh Russian opposition groups and then these attacks into um you know uh actual ports on the Black Sea that are not part of Crimea not part of of Ukraine and in the meantime we've got these um peace talks as they've been described um that have been hosted by Saudi Arabia bringing together more than 40 different countries including some who've been very much sitting on the fence in this conflict I mean even if they come up with a plan is there any way that that could be implemented given that Russia is not playing any part in this and Ukraine is saying that its goal at the end of all of this is to take back all of its territory um including places like Crimea that were taken almost a decade ago oh we seem to have lost oh we've got uh Robin back with you Robin I don't know if you heard that question what should we make of of these discussions yeah um what should we make a look I think it is an important signal um you know the more it looks like this is going to be a long conflict the more it looks like each side can drive the other to stalemate then there is a huge interest uh globally to be found to try to stop the war and to Move It from a hot phase to at the very least an Armistice or a ceasefire phase I don't think anyone's talking about um a peace agreement that would resolve the requirements of each side as you noted uh earlier the Ukrainian views we need to get back all of our territory and in fact uh since uh the discovery of the awful brutal human rights and war crimes that were committed around Butcher and urban in the early phase of the conflict in April March May 2022 the ukrainians have said we're not even interested in going back to the February 22 borders which included parts of Ukraine that had been taken by Russia we now want to take it all back so remember you've got the ukrainians on a maximalist position and the Russians on a maximalist position as well because Putin says I'm not even going to start negotiating until Kiev accepts that all of those those four provinces that we have conquered and are next uh are recognized as part of Russia so I mean the two sides as far apart as they can be but I think what you've got in Jeddah is an effort uh by countries that are traditionally you know sympathetic to the Russian position the Saudis in particular uh trying to bring together other countries that have been relatively sympathetic to the Russian position in Africa there's a Chinese delegation there as well um and the fact that these are countries that have not always been critical of Russia some have abstained the UN resolutions means that they really can I think bring pressure on Russia in a way that the West cannot so I think it's a very important development rather niblet a distinguished fellow at Chatham house uh the institute's former director great to speak to you thank you so much

Channel: Times Radio

Views: 344,650

Keywords: TimesRadio, russia ukraine war, russia ukraine, russia, ukraine russia news, ukraine russia, vladimir putin, ukraine, putin, ukraine russia war, russia vs ukraine war update, ukraine war, war in ukraine, russia ukraine news, russia ukraine war russian, russia ukraine war news, russia vs ukraine, russia war ukraine, russia ukraine war live, russia ukraine conflict, russia attacks on ukraine, ukraine counteroffensive, ukraine news, russia vs ukraine war, russia attack ukraine

Id: WgQp6MGgwno

Length: 8min 37sec (517 seconds)

Published: Sun Aug 06 2023