Or not? MUST SEE before buying a Rolls Royce Ghost | Depreciation and Buying guide

in this video I'm going to show you that rolls-royce ghost is depreciating an average depreciation rate of twenty three thousand two hundred and six dollars that this number is not too bad and that there might be a double bottom forming in the market what's up YouTube and welcome to a new video now if you are new to the channel this channel is all about depreciation analysis for various cars and normally I focus on sports cars and especially Porsches have been popular on the channel and perhaps a little bit too popular that's why I thought it was a good idea to mix things up a little bit and have a look to the cross were requested by Raymond plates and down here rubbles and note that that also means that you can request a car simply by commenting the name of the car which you would like to see in analysis down below in the comment section but let's start now with the market analysis for the rolls-royce ghost and to do that we will take a few steps first we will start buying from a look to the average price points so that we get a broad understanding of the market and step number two then we will dive into the details of pay garage what the depreciation numbers are for a ghost and a step number three we will use those depreciation numbers to make the forecasted prices we continue them by comparing all of these numbers to the other cars which I've analyzed on the channel and all the way at the end of the video I show you them what a fair purchasing prices and if at any point during the video you think hey this is actually quite a cool video please remember to give the video a thumbs up as it really helps to defeat the YouTube algorithm now let's start to explore the market and we're going to do that with the price distributions appearing right over here at the top you can see that with the distribution for the bull market and below that one we have the distribution split by the series one and the series two below that one the market is not split between the cars which have the extended wheelbase and the ones which don't and all the way to bottom you can see the split between the used cars the used cars for sale are dealers and the new cars if we start them with the full market at the top and note that I will go rather quickly through these numbers we can see that the average price point one hundred seventy-one thousand hundred and one dollars that are 184 cars for sale you can also see however that most of the cars are priced under $200,000 if we move Tanner histogram down then we can see the same market to split by generation type you can see for example that the series two is significantly more expensive than this is one and that is of course because there's a lot newer the series do name has an average price point of two hundred twenty-five thousand eighty eight dollars which is hundred and two thousand five hundred seventy five dollars above the average price point of the series one if we split the market and buy wheelbase in the next distribution then you can see that there are only twelve cars available which have the extended wheelbase also you can see that they are on average cheaper than the rest of the cars in the market because the cars which have this extended wheelbase tend to be series one cars I by the way also split the market between the black patches and the non black patches but there was only one car for sale which had a black patch so it's not so interesting to have a look to that split so let's have a look now to the last histogram which was a split between the used cars the used cars for sale at dealers and the new cars you can see first of all at the car sold by dealers are around thirty thousand dollars more expensive than normal used cars moreover you can see that there is a huge price gap between the used cars and the new cars in fact the new cars are on average two hundred twenty-five dollars more expensive now we hope that you didn't just purchase a new ghost because the story doesn't get any better from here this huge gap between a new and the used cars namely already tells us something about the depreciation per year and I should probably guess that it's quite steep how steep that we're going to figure out with the graph appearing over here well we have now model year on the horizontal axis and the price on the vertical axis you can also see that each car is represented by a bubble and it's a blue solid line going through the graph represents the depreciation curve finally then you can also see that there are some black axes in the graph and these axes show the average price point for that given model year now if we looked at the numbers then we can see it the average depreciation per year is twenty three thousand two hundred and six dollars you can however see that the height of this number depends very much on how old your car is to drop from the new cars to the first year which has used cars its namely on average hundred and five thousand dollars now when the last year however this number decreased to six thousand three hundred and four dollars and the fact that these numbers are so far apart of course means that there is a huge difference in depreciation between the series one and the series two so be smart and split the depreciation curve by generation then you can name you see that the depreciation as expected is quite low for the series one and sits at six thousand nine hundred and ninety four dollars I was however a little bit surprised to see that there was not a stronger bottom in the market for these cars yes of course compared to the series two it looks a lot better with what doesn't you can have proceeded to all the scores are still priced quite a bit lower than the ones from let's say model year 2012 to model year 2014 and that's a little bit odd I should normally see market stabilizing when they reach this age so the depreciation per year number is quite horrible but to be honest you perhaps expected that so let's have a look to the depreciation per thousand miles number and see if the story gets any better for the ghost and we're going to figure out what that number is with the graph over here where you can see that we have not a mileage on the horizontal axis instead of the model here and if I put this graph from the big screen then you can see that the pattern is quite the same as the one we solve for the depreciation per year may be that the number is a lot lower for the series one than that is for the service two for the series one we can see that the average depreciation per thousand miles driven is five hundred fifty seven dollars and that is four thousand five hundred and five dollars for the series two and that number for the series two is of course predominantly pushed up by the newer cars you can see then also that the curve for the series two source of platen gently and they do then also expect that over time it will follow the path of the series one so now then what do these depreciation numbers tell us then about the forecasted prices well that's a little bit of a tricky question in this case because initially it appeared to be the case that the market started to form a nice button a closer inspection of the bottom over for review that after this period of price stabilization the might come a second round of depreciation and that's of course a very tricky situation so let's put the depreciation numbers into the for cost model and see what the results are and those results are appearing now right over here you can see it in blue we still have the depreciation curve then orange we have now the forecasted prices and these forecasted prices represent the prices for a car from all the year 2010 one year from now you can see however the term multiple orange bubbles and that is because each bubble represents a four cusses price for a car with a different mileage if we have looked into the four causes prices then we can see of course at the higher mileage cars are priced in lowest and at the lower mileage cars surprise the highest no if we take them all together then we can see that the average forecasted price is ninety seven thousand twenty-five dollars and this represents a drop of eight thousand two hundred fifty eight dollars compared to the previous year now at this point in the depreciation curve this number is actually still quite high so also here again no good news for the ghost but just when it seems that all hope is lost for the ghost it will be saved we're now namely going to compare the depreciation numbers of the coast to the other cars which I've analyzed on this channel and the result of that might surprise you the ghost is namely doing pretty good and the reason for that is that if we're going to compare different cars to each other we need to have to look to the relative numbers instead of the absolute numbers so let's pull up the depreciation leaderboard and have a look you can see that we've now the different cars from the horizontal axis and the relative depreciation per year on the vertical axis you can see all the way at the left that julia QV is still leading and that the series two ranks white at the bottom of the leaderboard but have a look to the series one with the value of 5.2% it ranks at the top end of the leaderboard and right between the v8 Vantage and the California now I didn't expect that initially and that is also not all because there is more if we namely looked at the same graph but then from the relative depreciation per thousand miles then you can see it with a new leader in the leaderboard the series one is namely ranking all the way to the right hand side with a rate of minus 0.41 percent and this puts it just above the game and nine and one s and the game at nine and seven so what if we don't just look to the depreciation per year or the depreciation per thousand mile driven but to do market as a whole that we can do with the curvature metric and that metric shows us the extent to which the depreciation curve of a car market is already completed and if we have a look to that leaderboard then we can see it's a depreciation curve for the ghost has a very high completion rate of 93% now if all of this good news convinced you to buy a ghost then you definitely need to keep on watching because I'm going to show you now what a fair purchasing price is before we continue however please remember to give the video a thumbs up if you enjoyed it because it really helps to support the channel now then the fair purchasing prices to figure out what such a price might be I use some mod and I input it to price the mole a year and the mileage to machine learning algorithm which determines for us if a car is following the normal market dynamics or not and you can think of this in the following way if a car is following the normal market dynamics it is following quite nicely to depreciation curve of the market and hence its price fairly if it therefore doesn't follow this depreciation curve is either priced over the market or under the market and hence it's not price pair the results of that analysis you can see in the treaty plot appearing over here you can see it we've now indeed to molière the mileage and the price each of the bubbles represents again a car and the darker the color of the bubble the more likely it is the dead Pacific car has a fair processing price if we have looked into the results then we can see that the fair purchasing price is between 100 and 170 thousand dollars that the cars need to have a mileage of less than 4,000 miles now this range is of course huge and therefore not really valuable it does tell us however that the majority of the market is priced quite fairly there's a depreciation is therefore relatively stable over those years and that you can again of course use your advantage as you will know more or less exactly what you will lose on the car now let's wrap up this video and conclude what seemed to be a sad drama story for the ghost actually turned out to be a trailer with a good ending the analysis namely showed that the depreciation rates on the ghost are actually not a different from the rates of a normal car the absolute values are just inflated and a little bit daunting due to the high price level of the car now when it comes to the future of the ghost market I still see the value slide out slightly but a little predictable rate this is namely in line with the model forecast and with the curvature metric we saw namely that this metric was 93 percent and it of course always takes a lot more time for the depreciation curve to bottom out fully then it takes to create the initial hit and that's of course because depreciation curves are decreasing in a decreasing way and with that we arrive at the end of this video now if the ghost is not really your thing and you're more into sports curves then I can strongly recommend you check out my analysis for the mclaren 570s and the one for the Porsche gt3 thanks a lot for watching and I hope to see you again next week for a new depreciation analysis you

Channel: Fourwheel Trader - Car depreciation analysis

Views: 6,775

Keywords: rolls royce ghost, rolls royce ghost depreciation, rr depreciation, ghost depreciation, rr ghost series I, ghost 2020, rr ghost 2020, rr ghost 2019, rr ghost 2021, new rolls royce ghost, supercar depreciation, fourwheel trader, exotic car hacks, depreciation, car depreciation formula, car depreciation explained, buying rolls royce, buying used rolls royce, buying guide rolls royce, buying guide, problems rolls royce, used rolls royce ghost, rr ghost series II

Id: ybpdDQKDW28

Length: 11min 48sec (708 seconds)

Published: Sat Mar 14 2020