One of the most active severe weather days of the Summer expected Monday.. Detailed breakdown!

hey what's going on everyone this is Mitch good Sunday evening to you all hope you guys are doing well out there certainly and found yourself a great day a great weekend and unfortunately we're at the end of another weekend about to head off into a work week speaking of our work week our Monday looks extremely active tomorrow August the 7th potentially potentially could be one of our most active severe weather days of the summer and that's saying a lot considering the fact that it's been a very active summer in regards to severe weather one of the most active ones that I can remember since actively following weather now we're not going to know if that is going to be true until we get to the end of tomorrow Tuesday morning until they finalize all these storm reports and then posted on the Storm Prediction Center website but I'm thinking tomorrow is going to be very very active and that's what we're here to do we're going to get very detailed with you guys try to figure this one out damaging winds is by far the biggest threat for tomorrow but there is going to be a tornado risk for sure Health threat just like there is with any kind of storm set up severe storm set up we're going to break it all down this video try to keep you guys aware and do our part here on this channel to do so I want to mention if you hear any low rumbles in the background it is um storming about 30 miles away from here and that storm is definitely producing a lot of thunder lightning and thunder it actually rolled through here about 45 minutes ago and uh it was a really neat little summer storm that's one of the few things I like about summer is a good afternoon evening storm that you can just kind of chill out and watch off your front or back porch and that definitely was the case about an hour ago but it's very stormy out there this evening we'll talk a little bit on that talk about what's going on right now we'll break it all down for you in this video If you folks have not subscribed certainly consider doing that like the video if you like it it really goes a long way with getting these videos out there to more people not just because I want my channel to grow of course I'll be honest with you guys I would like to see my channel grow but it gets these videos out to more people it hits the algorithm it'll pop up on somebody's feed watching YouTube videos and then maybe they never knew that you know tomorrow was going to be very active and now they know okay so that's how I view it you know but if you guys got anything I can pray about pray over as always please put it in the comments below it gives me an opportunity to pray over it gives others an opportunity to do so too we also got stormy back here my cat she's been sleeping on that towel on my dresser for about three hours now so that means that she's gonna have the Zoomies overnight tonight and probably wake everybody up in the house but let's get going let's take a look at the Storm Prediction Center um Outlook we're going to talk about this first and then we're going to break down kind of what's going on and then kind of compare it to what's driving the severe weather threat for tomorrow let's talk about ingredients first and then we'll give you the information I'm sure a lot of people are here to see which is what it could look like tomorrow so skip ahead if you want don't want to know all the the players going into the severe weather threat you know I I can't blame you but it is important and it will help you understand what's driving this a lot more and I'm going to do my best to try to explain it so so I'm pretty Action Center outlook for tomorrow large enhanced risk okay we'll take a broad look at this first and then we're going to zoom in a little bit more on the Mid-Atlantic and the southeast but listen you got to enhance risk almost all the way to Birmingham all the way up to Philadelphia and everybody in between okay this is wild and we're not going to talk about this severe weather threat we'll do that in the morning we're really just going to focus in on the eastern U.S threat but we're going to break down all these regions but there's an enhanced risk and this entire area right in here in the arms that is a level three out of five the yellow level two out of five dark green level one out of five so let's go on and zoom into each risk we're going to talk about the risk of what's driving this enhanced risk Also let's zoom into this so Atlanta enhance risk all right Asheville enhance risk Greenville Spartanburg enhance risk Columbia Charlotte uh Raleigh uh Winston-Salem if you hear any vibrations in in the video guys my phone's just right here and I got my Google Maps pulled up and it's just notifications coming in basically 80 75 percent of West Virginia enhance risk extreme Eastern Kentucky enhanced a Washington D.C Richmond Roanoke Charlottesville Washington already said that Baltimore Philadelphia up here to what Harrisburg you guys enhanced risk okay level three out of five all right this is a huge area I'm almost going to guarantee we are going to get a moderate risk in this area right here okay and I'll talk about why in the video tornado risk for tomorrow the the grain area that is a two percent risk of a tornado within 25 miles in the given location not that high I know but if you're in the green area I'm telling you do not totally neglect the tornado risk for tomorrow but the brown area this is where you have the best overlapping of kinematics and thermodynamics we'll talk about what both means here in a second this is a great video to really get detailed with weather terminology and that's what we're going to do uh the brown that is a five percent risk of a tornado within 25 miles in a given location that does include the Harrisburg Area includes Washington DC um northern Delaware um portions of the Del Mar of a northern VA uh Baltimore I don't know if I said that already Philadelphia okay it includes back here to Charleston West Virginia just a large portion of West Virginia okay so I mean that's a decent chance of a tornado I know you're thinking five percent risk Mitch I mean what are you making a big deal out of this for well it's just a totally different thing we're talking about tornado risk when you go from a two to a five percent risk that means that somebody is likely going to get a tornado warning I know that doesn't explain it well but when you go from a five to a ten percent risk you are likely going to get some confirmed tornadoes I know a 10 risk that that is just think think of that I mean temp you got a one out of ten chance to see a tornado I know that that's still not high but I mean if you're that one out of ten chance I mean it's it's you know it's gonna your life is at risk so it's serious we will show the health right just your general hell I don't think it's going to be a massive deal tomorrow that could change as we wake up tomorrow morning but in the yellow 15 risk of Hell exceeding one inch in diameter or larger within 25 miles in a given location guys the win threat is is the big dog threat tomorrow okay not only do you have this large large red area that is a 30 risk and this entire enhanced region that's a 30 risk of um winds exceeding 50 knots or higher 55 to 60 miles per hour but you also have in the purple region right here Washington DC Northern VA Baltimore okay Central Maryland a 45 chance you might as well say there's a 50 50 shot because it's 45 chance or higher of seeing winds pushing 50 knots or higher 55 to 60 miles per hour I can almost guarantee you you're going to get a hatched risk somewhere in here which means you're going to have a 10 risk of significant wins that's winds exceeding 65 knots or higher that's basically a mile per hour readings 75 miles per hour or higher hurricane force winds with some of these storms guys okay this is serious so you're likely going to get an upgrade to a moderate risk I have a pretty and I could be totally wrong I could I could definitely face palm myself and face plan on this and be totally wrong but most people in the weather Community agree that we're likely going to get an upgrade to a moderate risk in this region driven off win so the threat is significant tomorrow I don't know if there's kids in school in the Washington DC area some people have already started school or I said I think somebody said in Kentucky they don't start to like the first couple days of September it's crazy how broad the start date is but I wouldn't be surprised they canceled some school tomorrow from this I mean I'm 31. I don't remember them ever cancel canceling school for the risk of severe storms now if there was a hurricane coming I do remember that and obviously winter weather but yeah it's definitely a different ball game out there so let's try to explain what's going on on the water vapor Loop all right so you see this sort of spin right here all right that is our low pressure so this is the associated uh surface load with this shortwave trough digging in right here okay this is going to continue to move its way Eastward and with it it's going to bring a belt of when's the Loft a Shear uh winds basically a mid-level jet basically accelerated winds about 18 to 20 000 feet up in the air right through this entire region right into here okay even down here so with this so so much kinematic energy which is winds think of that as winds you are going to have a huge threat for damaging winds in this entire region tomorrow okay um and this basically this potent is the way they explain it in the Storm Prediction Center discussion this potent mid to upper level uh shortwave is going to swing through here and definitely have that neutral to almost negative tilt so it would swing through this region and basically with it going to bring a ton of ingredients that are going to overlap one another and going to cause our severe weather threat now if you kind of compare this to what's actually falling on the surface right now I mean you already have lift for thunderstorm development look at what's going on the Southeast right now it's already active okay you got severe thunderstorm warnings uh scattered about in Alabama when I looked at this When I Was preparing the video there was a lot more but there's a lot of storms that move through my neck of the woods we even got a flashlight morning up the road uh severe thunderstorm warning near Danville Virginia um one down here close to Macon you got severe storms that just rolled through parts of I think south of Birmingham severe storms in southern uh Georgia so I mean it's already very active guys I mean even already got some storms up here in the Mid-Atlantic region okay some store you got some showers and storms we already discussed was likely going to happen this morning's video rolling through Western and Central PA so it's already pretty active um associated with our surface low back here you see this little spinach you got that tornado warning right here almost where Illinois Iowa and Northeast Missouri connect right here just north of Quincy uh you got some severe weather cranking up for Western Illinois which we talked about this southeast of sections of Iowa so this is kind of what's going on right now we kind of zoom out to all this and you can kind of see the picture of what's driving everything um Here Comes our our short wave right in here we already got plenty of lift for thunderstorm development and this is our little surface low and then we're going to have an Associated cold front with that surface low that we normally do but it man it it's definitely it's definitely setting up okay if you look at this and um the blues and the the oranges on your screen are Reds this blue is basically our shortwave if you watch it here you see how it's digging you see how these lines buckle down this is our short wave it digs sort of this um uh this upper troughing if you will then waking up one Monday morning and this thing looks like it almost has that neutral kind of dig to it which means the lot this thing buckles straight down if it was going if it was going more so like this this will be more so of a positive tilt and then this is more so like a neutral tilt all right and then this is what we call a negative tilt which means that we have a strengthening um a strengthening system that negative tilt is what you don't want to see that is really what enhances uh this uh damaging wind threat okay and it looks like this thing is going to be taking that look on as we're rolling through the day tomorrow okay let's go on and get this thing going here again that's way too far ahead so you see it moving through kind of takes that look goes neutrally tilted around tomorrow afternoon and here it is this shortwave trough moving through and then the base of this and just out ahead of it we're going to have a lot of nasty weather always remember when I show you this the blues this is basically a lower pressure sometimes it gets similar as a cold front and upper trough upper level low but always remember the severe weather isn't going to be around the Blue Area you see it's always going to be on the bottom or Eastern portion of this and this is where the mechanism for all these thunderstorm development is going to be so if you actually look and that was the atmospheric pattern kind of that I was showing you if you look at the ingredients this is what it looks like so at this point the upper trough swinging through areas of the Midwest through Ohio Valley okay this um purple color you're seeing on your screen almost the pink looking color this is our belt of mid-level flow moving through so you've got winds at about 50 60 knots um about 18 to 20 000 feet up in the air over Kentucky areas of Tennessee West Virginia okay so that's winds pushing 65 70 miles per hour in the upper levels of the atmosphere we would actually consider this more so the mid levels of the atmosphere so we haven't what we call a right exit region which is basically on the basically a portion of that belt of favorable kinematics which would be right here in this region right into kind of here so and this is going to be the worst threat right in here so this is basically right at this exit region where the worst severe weather threat is likely going to be and uh as this basically basically uh area of kinematics moves through this is basically just think of this as a ton of wind energy moving through this region this entire bluish purple pinkish colors that you're seeing on your screen that you're probably a lot of the audience that you're tuning in is probably having a hard time understanding and trust me I'm not the best to explain this that's why people always say Mitch you know why don't you make some informative videos well there's a lot of people who are probably a bit a lot better explaining this than I am I try to explain in a way where you guys can understand and not try to geek out on you too much but I still always want to show you um the ingredients that really go together to make this I think that's very important for the audience to to really understand but you know we take it all the way to about 3 4 P.M uh you got a ton of winds Aloft and the upper levels in the atmosphere in Kentucky West Virginia and then the big storms really start forming right here on the Leading Edge of this belt of um a mid-level flow that we call right in here and this continues to flow through the area and along this you're going to have damaging winds and the winds are not just going to be in the upper levels of the atmosphere you go about 5 000 feet up in the air this is what we call that low level Jet right this is really what we look at we're looking at Big Time tornado threat I mean look at these winds about only about a mile up in the atmosphere about about five four to four to five thousand six thousand feet up in the air look at these winds screaming right come coming right over the southern apps of Tennessee North Carolina you got winds pushing I mean what what is this 70 to 75 miles per hour just about a few thousand feet above our heads this is going to mix the surface and you're likely going to have a nasty line of storms associated with these winds Aloft and I'm about to show you what the ace triple model looks here in a second and this goes basically from North Georgia through the Piedmont of North Carolina up through Virginia all the way up to the Delmarva region so you're going to have a robust line of Storms and this belt of favorable low-level winds this is going to mix the surface which means where you do have storms all these strong winds are going to come to the surface and you're going to have a threat for damaging winds into this region right into here I mean look right here 50 to 60 knots low-level Jets right into this region it's winds 65 70 miles per hour mile per hour readings maybe I got my Knights my knots the mile per hour conversion mixed up if I do you guys correct me but remember I'm doing all this in my head on the Fly Guys um but um if you look at the low level moisture I mean you check this off the Box easy it's not even a question you check it off you got plenty of low level moisture that surges into the region dew points well into the 70s all the way up into Southeast PA New Jersey uh plenty of Rich moisture out ahead of this and this is going to do nothing but check off another box for ingredients so this uh kind of shortwave trough if you will it's going to yank up all the ingredients into this region with this aiding surface low is going to help pull things out of the Southwest ton of moisture even all the way up into New York State and with that moisture you're going to have Cape levels think of this as storm fuel that are going to be pretty high so this is around 1 to 2 P.M tomorrow you got Cape levels in the Eastern you know Eastern areas of North Carolina areas of Virginia well over 2 000 joules per kilogram but you don't need a lot of cape in this setup a thousand 1500 joules per kilogram of Cape is plenty of energy in the atmosphere to work with but such favorable kinematics and lift okay remember some of our biggest severe weather tornado outbreaks um has not had a ton of Cape I mean a thousand fifteen hundred but you mix it with uh so much energy kinematic wise wind wise in the upper levels in the atmosphere then you have overlapping of ingredients of thermodynamics which is what you see on your screen the cape levels the higher temperatures the higher dew points moisture and then the kinematics The Winds of the surface uh the winds Aloft and the upper levels of the atmosphere okay you mix them two together you have a recipe for a severe weather outbreak which we could have tomorrow so let's get to the part that I'm sure a lot of people just want to see so we'll we'll give it to you folks let's talk about the Deep South first um this area I did not I almost completely skipped you guys I'm not even gonna lie but you guys definitely don't deserve to be skipped because if you look at the Storm Prediction Center I mean you got the slight wrist that extends all the way back to Nashville all the way through Birmingham almost all the way to areas of Northeast Mississippi so you guys definitely don't need to be skipped here I'll wake up Monday morning I could be dealing with some storms right off the dots and Northern uh I'm sorry northern Mississippi Central uh Tennessee some storms are working their way through they'll develop quick there's plenty of lift in the atmosphere even away from the surface load and you already have a nasty line of storms around lunchtime heading towards the Cumberland Plateau it shows some storms around the Florence near the Huntsville area these storms sink Southward they could redevelop at the tail end of this looks like around three to four pm you've got some powerful storms rumbling through Northern Alabama these are affecting the Northern areas of Georgia the mountains of North Georgia and this continues and then by the time you get into this evening um you could get another round of storms that potentially develops really quickly in Northern Alabama and then moves and affects the Atlanta area around 8 nods and piano I'm going to say this probably a few more times maybe I won't maybe I will what you're seeing on your screen could totally change when you wake up tomorrow morning okay it could but this is the general theme of what could unfold tomorrow but you show it the latest H Triple R model shows some storms affecting the Atlanta area and then eventually sinks Southward so uh we'll watch these storms for tomorrow any storms you see on your screen that do develop they have the ingredients to produce damaging winds hell and you can't completely ignore tornado threat okay keep your eye on the sky I would definitely watch Central to Eastern Tennessee which we will talk about Eastern Tennessee again and get more detail here in a second Northern Alabama and North Georgia in this can't rule it out a little bit further west but I would say it's much lower all right so this is a big area my folks in the Carolinas will talk about Georgia again probably um Eastern Tennessee Eastern Kentucky Southern West Virginia even areas of Virginia but we'll talk about we'll probably double dose Virginia we'll talk about Virginia and both areas okay so we'll get this emotional start off tomorrow morning there could be some storms you're waking up to in West Virginia already and then quickly I mean as early as like mid to late morning you already got storms that's the fire off here in Kentucky Lexington Kentucky Points East into the Eastern Hills of Eastern Kentucky storms can already be rumbling through your area in fact maybe most of your activity happens in the first half of the day but you got some storms heading out of Kentucky um these line of storms explodes potentially um in Eastern Tennessee and starts to really affect Western Virginia I mean just after lunchtime this gets going quickly you keep this going these are heading right over the Cumberland Plateau Into The Valleys of Tennessee I really say Eastern Tennessee Western Virginia your highest threat may be early in the afternoon but you could have additional convection that gets going later but Knoxville says 1 to 2 p.m Johnson City Kingsport Bristol you guys can be highly impacted early to mid afternoon and then these storms start to really get into the mountainous regions of Virginia then get more so into the Foothills how about let's talk about Virginia in the next time frame let's focus on these areas here because I'm really going to get detailed on Virginia here in a second but here it goes here comes this area this is this entire region has an enhanced risk right in here okay these storms move over the mountains I would say sometime mid-afternoon so Boone Asheville Waynesville a lot of areas I'm probably missing Banner Elk area blowing rot nasty storms mid mid afternoon I would say these storms could affect North Georgia and Northern Georgia mountains affect Atlanta and then we'll stop it here they could re-intensify when they get out of them higher elevations the mountains of Tennessee North Carolina Virginia tend to weaken storms and then they typically re-strengthen when they get right off um the Eastern slopes of the mountains and this is what happens I mean look at this it's around 5 P.M I really am concerned about Big Time damaging winthreat and Western North Carolina uh you know if you're in Hickory Winston-Salem um the Piedmont the Triad of North Carolina even upstate South Carolina I think we're going to have some tornado warnings with this area right in here this continues can't rule out some additional convection back here in Kentucky but this rolls through Charlotte I would say sometime late afternoon early evening and this heads towards Raleigh starts to affect the Columbia South Carolina all Augusta regions sometime probably late afternoon I would say more so in the evening and then it looks like model guidance likes the idea of this losing some steam as it gets into the Eastern Carolinas but it could still be a pretty significant amount of storms this is around 10 p.m you still got some nasty storms around the Orangeburg area extreme um basically around the kind of the Myrtle Beach region right in here affects the Wilmington area around 10 to 11 p.m but look I mean look at this additional storm action that are ongoing in Northern and Central Georgia you could have another line of storms lasting all the way till after midnight um riding that South Carolina Georgia state line all the way into the low country of South Carolina okay so that's kind of what it looks like I do want to mention I do want to mention the mail the name guys totally different start off tomorrow morning we'll go through this a lot quicker does show storms going on pretty quickly in Eastern Kentucky um but I mean this is what it looks like for 6 P.M on the Nam on the nap okay so show some scattered convection um not near as widespread you go back to the H Triple R model let's go to the H Triple R model for 6 PM okay um look how much different it looks guys um let's go all the way this is 6 p.m on the Nam I'm sorry on the H Triple or Mall totally different right so I just I just want to reiterate that two pretty well-known short-range model guidance looks totally different it really does so let's talk about impacts from this let's talk about winds first these winds will crank up quickly with any storms that get going for example stop it here it's around 2 p.m if you're confused about what time frame we're at this is an Eastern time so 1 p.m Central Time 2 p.m eastern time I mean look at these look at these winds with these storms affecting Eastern areas of Tennessee This Is 50 60 70 mile per hour wind gusts look at those winds associated with the storms in in Western Virginia you got 40 50 60 mile per hour wind gusts with these two look at these strong wind gusts are heading over the mountains of Tennessee and North Carolina very very strong winds potentially mid-afternoon tomorrow for the North Carolina Tennessee Mountains could be early afternoon could be mid-afternoon or late afternoon very strong winds showing up in North Georgia these could cause power outages I'm telling you there's going to be a lot of power outages tomorrow but look how much it really enhances increases as it gets into the upstate of South Carolina and Western areas of North Carolina the Triad to Foothills you've got huge areas of 50 60 mile per hour winds sweeping through these regions with these storm line of storms moving through Central Virginia too but I mean these could pack a punch these are likely going to potentially knock out power for certain areas and they continue all the way to the coastline okay so this is going to be quite significant guys the wind threat needs to be taken serious updraft Felicity swath remember what you're about to see on the screen the higher the colors like the yellows and then it gets into the Reds the more vibrant the colors um the higher chance um of a rotating updraft off this particular run of the H Triple R model so we'll start off tomorrow morning look how it highlights immediately in areas of Kentucky Western Virginia and then look how it really enhances in the Triad of North Carolina man it really likes the idea of these storms rotating even if they're associated with a line okay this will be a very significant threat of winds but you also have that threat of tornadoes I would not be surprised if they extend the Tornado 3 a little bit further south not one bit so please don't ignore this tornado threat these updrafts will be rotating and listen I mean even if it just is just a linear threat to more linear meaning just a line of storms if you're going to have some rotation with some of these storms okay so it's dangerous when you have a tornado embedded in the line of storms because a lot of times they come up on you so fast um they're not very photogenic and they could be just embedded in the line so you never see them coming okay so take this serious all right let's talk about my folks in the Mid-Atlantic Virginia West Virginia Maryland Southern PA even areas of Ohio Delaware start off tomorrow morning latest age report model says you're going to wake up to some showers and storms in West Virginia we keep this going storms quickly re get going around lunchtime I mean these look powerful right off the bank here in West Virginia Charleston West Virginia Morgantown uh Beckley you guys strong storms could start off as early as midday tomorrow could get some strong storms and eat in southern sections of Ohio too okay so we don't want to ignore Ohio you guys if you're in kind of Southern and Southeast areas of Ohio you guys could get some storms early to mid afternoon tomorrow you really could let's back it up here so we'll stop it here it's around 2 p.m Eastern Time storms heading to the Eastern panhandle of West Virginia you got storms moving over this higher terrain of West Virginia but and and Virginia they're affecting areas of Western Maryland at this point this is around mid-afternoon but these storms I'm telling you Blacksburg Lynchburg uh Charlottesville um I mean down here to uh Roanoke Danville I'm telling you significant winds are possible with these hurricane force winds are possible with these 70 75 miles per hour and this is the epicenter of the worst weather it's around three to four p.m you've got some gnarly storms moving through I'm telling you you need to secure anything that's loose and you need to know where these storms are if you're leaving work if you're just out and about picking up your kids from school doing any outdoor activities whatever you really need to have a reliable radar source and please do not rely on your radar on your uh on your hourly forecast guys this is not a good day for this okay please just actually walk outside look outside if it's safe look at a radar on your phone know exactly where they are don't just rely on an hourly forecast or you know it it could affect your life it could but you stop it here these storms are rumbling through Charlottesville knocking on the doorstep around for Washington DC and Baltimore and I mean this looks intense on this particular run of the age Triple R model this could very well be more intense down here in Virginia I mean look you got more storms rumbling through the northern portion of West Virginia up here near Morgantown uh you even got some storms showing up around the Pittsburgh and just South Region and these storms continue to roll through and head into the Delmarva region knock on the doorstep of Delaware watch out Richmond these storms are heading towards you guys this is around five to seven p.m and then they start to move into the New Jersey region Delaware I think they will begin to lose some steam as they get closer to the ocean but still very intense line of storms and then you'll have just some scattered more storms that could develop in Northern West Virginia like I said after the afternoon convection so we'll quickly move through this one more time this is around 11 A.M 12 p.m and this is 2 p.m 3 P.M 4 P.M 5 p.m 6 p.m 7 P.M 8 P.M okay last throughout the entire afternoon early evening time frame take this serious guys we look at the winds with this and uh here they come I mean it doesn't look worrisome on this but I'm telling you it's going to be a lot worse than what this is showing okay I really think it will you're going to have in this line of storms areas of 50 to 60 to 70 mile per hour wind gusts you might even get a wind gusts even stronger than that and they're going to roll through at the same time frame okay this is this is um 8 P.M 9 p.m 10 10 p.m I'm sorry am a.m 11 12 1 in the afternoon two three four five six looks pretty bad down here in Virginia okay just know that you're gonna have damaging winds possible it's unlikely with any storms that sweep through this region guys updraft Alicia swap same thing we'll work our way through this region and I mean look here in West Virginia you got a legit tornado threat in West Virginia tomorrow and uh you know you don't have great terrain for actually visibly seeing anything so do not let this sneak up for you on you and you folks in West Virginia I found a couple people tell me that I ignore West Virginia this that was a very long time ago um but um I'm definitely not ignoring you guys for tomorrow okay you guys have a pretty significant threat for severe weather especially as you work away um I would say into the northeastern portion of the state um but you see these you know highlighted areas as far as colors this is indicating rotating rotation with some of these storms it will flow through so please guys take this serious take this serious tomorrow okay even if guys even if we get we go to bed tomorrow we we wake up Tuesday morning saying dang that was over I know someone someone's gonna say it and that was over hyped um it's not over hyped if it if one person gets hit because that one person um their life may be affected forever they might lose a loved one so it's it's easy for the grand schema things to say things are over hyped but you just never know if this is going to be way more significant than even what they're thinking it's going to be so please take it serious tomorrow guys a little bit closer look at this threat um you know really zooming in on specific areas here where I think the most significant threat will be that um purple the pink or purple purplish paint that you see on your screen uh will roll with um pink that is a 45 chance or higher to see when's exceeding 50 knots or higher guys I'm telling you you're going to have a hatch risk in this region I don't have to name these cities you see it if you're local to these areas but Washington DC Baltimore right smack in the middle of this thread guys and you know we look at the tornado threat you guys got that five percent risk of a tornado and then the health threat and yeah so definitely a big threat I don't want to ignore you folks in New York uh Northern portions of va you guys will see some strong storms tomorrow too if you're around the Buffalo region I think you can get some strong and severe storms around early to mid afternoon the Finger Lakes area up to Scranton this is around 5 P.M tomorrow look at these nasty storms sweeping through the Finger Lakes Region uh through the Rochester region getting close to the reading area these are moving through I mean this is what it could look like around 7 P.M tomorrow I think you can get a damaging Winthrop big damaging wind threat throughout the entire Western half of New York State tomorrow and um eastern PA okay now you know you for you folks wondering kind of in the New York City area I think I think the storms will lose its uh steam by the time it reaches you guys but I do think you'll get some rain off this tomorrow but I mean look how much rain's falling up here in New York state Syracuse uh Watertown a lot of rain falling from this but the severity of it I don't think will be quite as high so that's the update on the severe weather threat for tomorrow losing my voice I promised I would talk about the tropics but guys I'm not going to get as detailed as I wanted to get just because the severe weather threats has taken up so much um my energy and time here um but there's nothing expected over the next seven days and it seems like every time when we have an increase for a 24-hour period of Tropics it seems like we talk about it too much and then it goes away so maybe that's a good thing we need to talk about it a lot so the threat for anything in the tropics goes away but I will mention um the um on the European Ensemble run through 180 hours which is seven days out it likes the idea of something getting going here in the southwest Atlantic okay if that happens then you know we do need to watch the eastern U.S even into the Gulf of Mexico there's a sign here there's a there's quite a few L's but um you know this looks like 10 to 12 different low pressure showing up on this run that's out of 50. so that's not very high I mean it's only 35 percent of the members it does like the idea of a wave coming off North Africa here in about seven days so we'll definitely watch this so I know that's not a lot on the tropics I'll even show you the gefs gefs Ensemble run same thing and uh it's it's not very impressive I think this only goes out yeah let's go to uh let's go to the 12C and let's go 108 hours out yeah this isn't cooperating for me at all but in general guys the threat remains low as of now so that's all I got I hope that helped I felt like we weren't through that pretty efficiently so God bless all y'all stay safe out there and I'll have you another update in the morning

Channel: Mitch West Weather

Views: 14,651

Keywords: Weather, Severe, Storm, Wind, WashingtonDC, Hail, Tornado, Significant

Id: OWLz2AoG1bs

Length: 35min 47sec (2147 seconds)

Published: Sun Aug 06 2023