No protection against death

warm welcome to today's talk Wednesday the 13th of December now for the last few days I've been talking to Professor Stefan Pils in Austria about his uh latest paper and I'm going to give you the results of that now now what they were looking at was the effect of the fourth dose of a covid vaccine now of course we are where we are now with a current level of immunity with the current variance and people in the United States CDC for example advocating strongly that people get these additional booster Doses and S similar situation in the UK for certain specified groups but is this working well the data from Austria to be quite honest says it's not it really puts into doubt the current recommendations from the CDC and the British authorities because what they found was and this is a population-wide study for basically the whole population of Austria was that the additional dose of vaccine the fourth vaccine conferred uh no reduction in deaths compared to people who'd only had three vaccines now in fact the people that had a fourth vaccine did actually have a higher death rate um slightly higher death rate on a very small Baseline because not many people thankfully are dying um but it wasn't statistically significant so the authors have said there was no reduction no change in deaths so a fourth dose of vaccine is not protecting against death so why are we doing it does it protect against infection well yes it does for the first 3 months there was a 177% reduction in the number of new infections but and it's a huge butt for the six months after that for the 6 months into 2023 when this data was collected there was actually more infections so the vaccine is actually causing no reduction in mortality and after a small 3 month Hiatus for the six months after that where the data was collected it's actually causing more people to become infected and I would have thought if more people are infected then there's greater risk of long covid greater risk of sequi so really what what are we doing at the moment there are significant fundamental questions to be asked here and also there was a general Trend that they found that people who' had more vaccines got more infections overall people who' had less vaccines got less covid infections overall what is going on here now let's hope that this increased in infections that we're seeing is due to things like production of immunoglobulin type four let's hope it's due to sensitization of cells like suppressor tea cells I really hope that the increase in the infection that we are seeing is not caused by some overall effect reducing immune efficiency in the body as a whole let's hope that's not the case we simply don't have the data to adjudicate on that at the moment but really quite significant questions to be asked now let's go into the detail on this do stick around it is really interesting now this is the paper here and we notice for example that there's Professor ion nois here and uh Professor Pils these are these are some of the world's um leading medical researchers in this peerreview paper there we go it's from the Journal of uh European journal of clinical investigation now this is very uh readable uh surprisingly readable um and the whole papers there uh are made available for free download um for the amount of detailed medical information in it um it's actually really really readable and I would suggest that you download that if nothing else downloading it is good for the paper algorithm so do do can I encourage you to download that now let's get down to the details straight away now here we have it this is the paper here affectiveness of the fourth SARS Corona virus 2 vaccine dose in previously infected uh adults from Austria now these are people that are previously infected so we're dealing with a population group here that are previously infected now we have seen data from the office for National statistics in the UK for example that shows the amount of SARS Corona virus to antibody was at some points I think it was over 99% so I think it's fair to say that pretty well everyone has been exposed and the vast majority of people have been infected now so we're dealing with the previously infected population predominantly so this data is highly relevant to the current population that we now are so that makes perfect sense to me um that's the link there download it for yourself now the authors said that evidence is limited on the effectiveness of the fourth vaccine dose against Corona virus disease prior to their paper it was you've got to really ask the question why isn't this research being done in the United States why isn't it it been done in the UK um why is it just being done in Austria and a few other countries um yeah interesting question uh in populations with priar Corona virus to infection which of course we all now are they estimated the risk of death which was the primary outcome and they also investigated the risk of infection as we have said uh in case a short of time there was no difference to the amount of deaths infections went down for 3 months and then went dramatically up for uh 6 months so um overall um looks like it's actually causing infections for longer a six-month period than a 3-month period now the method that methods that that were used um it's a it's a nationwide retrospective observational study so it covers huge numbers of people in the country data was from the 1st of November to 31st of December so a 2month period in 2022 although there is a followup that we will mention into 2023 primarily we're comparing individuals with four versus three vaccine doses on the whole population what the were the results they found 3.9 million people previously infected 71% of those had four vaccine doses 38% had uh sorry 7.1% had four vaccine Doses 281,000 and 38% had three vaccine doses now these are huge numbers 281,000 very good statistics out of it but shows a very low background rate of death from covid which again puts a question mark over the current vaccination policy really so they recorded 69 deaths on 89,000 infections so pretty good numbers on the infections thankfully very low numbers on the deaths which is why the data on the deaths was more uncertain uh the majority of uh covid-19 deaths and a significant portion of all cause deaths occurred in nursing home residents sad to see and of course nursing home residents typically are inside all the time often short of vitamin D factors that we could go on and talk about there's no mention of medication or anything like that in the report so we simply don't know right relative vaccine Effectiveness RVE for four vaccines versus three doses uh 24% uh negative effect against covid-19 deaths now as we said this was only based on 69 deaths so this is not significant although it may be we simply don't know we don't have the numbers to say thankfully but what we could what the researchers can say with confidence is there is no uh reduction in deaths as a result of the fourth vaccine dose that is the second booster dose 177% protection against infection for three months but then after 3 months for the six months after that as we said there was actually a lot more infections for reasons that we are concerned about protection against infection rapidly diminished over time uh an infection with four vaccines was high during the extended follow-up until June 2023 so for the 6 months after this more infections so less infections for 3 months followed by more infections for six months not a very good tradeoff really you might think now um adjusted hazard ratio for all cause mortality people that had four vaccines had lower mortality overall but this is probably what you call the healthy vaccine effect in that people that took the vaccine were healthier so people that were about to die in hospices for example you wouldn't be vaccinating and obviously people that already died of Co can't die of something else anyway um so um healthy vaccination effect uh healthy vaccine effect there is probably the main factor that is people with a fourth dose 79% less likely to die suggesting healthy vaccine bias excuse me I've still got a bit of a cough after my covid episode last week um moving on rapidly what's the discussion from the authors um in previously infected individuals a fourth vaccine dose did not did not reduce the risk of covid-19 death death but was transiently related with reduction of SARS Corona virus to infection but they went up after that reversal of this effect in the in the longer followup or cause mortality data suggest a healthy vaccine uh bias so the people that were getting vaccine were more healthy now more details mostly fiser vaccine in this study the overall case fatality was 0. not 8 but if we assume that say 10% of infections were picked up of course that will give an infection fatality rate much lower so good to see that they are relatively low individuals repeated previous infection had reduced reinfection risk so um in other words natural immunity was evident people who' had repeated infections did better and in fact the author um did say that natural immunity may be the main determinant of immunological protection in a population so definitely benefits seen from natural acquired immunity by the end of 2022 the vast majority of the global population already acquired some immune protection of course as we've said this has been around for a long time and now at the end of 2023 of course it's even more so compared to three vaccine doses uh those with fewer or no vaccine doses did not differ with regard to mortality no protective effect on mortality but had reduced risk of SARS Corona virus 2 infection early on 2022 infection fatality rat due to SARS coronavirus 2 significantly declined signif suggesting transition into endemicity as we know which of course is good also directly from the paper in general enal our study results question whether recommendations for repeated vaccine boosters against s Corona virus 2 are currently Justified for large parts of the general population with a history of previous infections CDC take note measures against SS Corona virus 2 including vaccine policy should be critically re-evaluated with their risk to benefit ratio of course we are not discussing Adverse Events of vaccin of vaccines all here but we know they exist so we're getting the risk of Adverse Events from the vaccine known and unknown not getting any reduction in deaths we are getting a reduction in infections for three months but then we're getting a result an increas in infections for 3 months we don't know why there's an increase in infections we don't know if this is caused by some problem with the immune system as a whole or whether this is a specific effect either way I would have thought that might constitute a red flag but over to the regulatory authorities as most SS Corona virus 2 infections are asymptomatic in the mild or endemic phase effectiveness of vaccination Prim should primarily be evaluated against hard clinical outcomes such as deaths which they did and found no difference as we said the extended followup was the first half of 2023 when more infection were seen Omicron was the predominant variant at that time during this time there was 225 deaths and still they saw no benefit from a fourth dose of vaccine even with the high numbers of death no significant effect in Saving Lives they saw lots of infections and we now know from the previous data that infections would have been lower for the first three months but higher for the next six months assuming that the 23 data panned out the same as the 2022 data which it probably would have done analysis in 2023 confirms no relative vaccine Effectiveness for four versus three doses in terms of mortality but shows a higher risk of SARS Corona virus to infection 17% actually more for SE for six months could have been for longer um what about July August September October November December 2023 which simply data wasn't collected there was a cut off point to the study so we don't know this is props the most concerning thing here is the some problem that the vaccine is affecting immunity as a whole I really hope that's not the case I hope it's just a specific effect on on um immunity against covid giving more covid infections rather than more infections overall and of course things like cancer are determined on the of cancer is maintained at Bay by the quality of the immune system so a few a few things that are concerning there really so get hold of the paper there it is eminently readable and really the authorities need to be asking the question why are we vaccinating when it doesn't protect against death from covid why are we vaccinating when although it might cause reduced infections for three months it causes greatly more infections after in the six months following we're giving a vaccine that's increasing the amount of infections it's supposed to protect against on that point of incredulity I will leave you and thank you for watching annual patients

Channel: Dr. John Campbell

Views: 769,863

Keywords: physiology, nursing, NCLEX, health, disease, biology, medicine, nurse education, medical education, pathophysiology, campbell, human biology, human body

Id: CRs9xwiGabA

Length: 15min 56sec (956 seconds)

Published: Wed Dec 13 2023