Lok Sabha Elections 2024 | Why BJP-led NDA Seems to Have Advantage in 2024 Elections | News18

[Music] you're with the hard facts from the CNN news 18 and Federal Bank Prime Time Studios viewers viewers my friends we are in the SLO overs two phases remain with a little over 100 seats between them these seats are spread across Bengal udisha Bihar utar Pradesh Delhi Punjab and harana in these states as you know viewers the BJP is the party to beat as it won more than 80% of the seats in 2019 that was of course categorized as a Modi wave election given the absence of any discernable anti-bjp wave SL anti-modi wave in any of the states baring perhaps Punjab where there are different factors at play and a few seats in harana the BJP is well placed to romp home in the ensuing two phases the prime minister is not even waiting for the ballot to be pressed the button to be pressed on the evm in Phase five 6 or 7 he has already gone on record before fa F to claim that the party is on its way to 400 par and Amit sha had indicated that after phase 4 it had gone gone past the halfway mark But despite the two senior most campaigners for the BJP LED NDA predicting a 2014 and 2019 like whitewash for the opposition the India block is unded and viewers they have every right to be after all this is a democracy and they have a right to claim a comeback viewers they are basing this claim by pointing out to a lack of a Modi way and also showing data after data sheet on the economic distress that the people have suffered in these last 10 years particularly in the last five and on the back of this distress they say there is widespread and antipathy against the ND Rahul Gandhi krial and mam banery have predicted a route for the ND the term being used is quote 2004 like unquote humbling awaits Modi listen in your SS [Music] 79 [Applause] Congress viewers we know it's a consequential election we know it's a pivotal election the Prime Minister already said that he's working 24/7 for 2047 the resurrection of bhat is the defined purpose and therefore nothing can be ruled out especially when it comes to India's Discerning voters but even so the opposition has its task cut out viewers there are at least five barriers it must cross before it can hope to house the BJP in a repeat of the 2004 like surprise Victory scored by the Congress Le UPA let's go over these barriers the first barrier bjp's vote lakais are the first barrier 164 seats the victory margin was 2 lakh votes 105 seats the victory margin for the bjp's candidates was 3 lakh votes in 44 seats the victory margin was 4 lakh votes in 14 seats the victory margin was 5 lakh votes what is the takeaway from this data viewers it's simple the BJP has very few marginal seats to lose in elections where the incumbent party is sitting on marginal seats I seats that it won by narrow margins viewers the result can be unpredictable here it would take a lot a lot vote swings of 1 lakh plus in a large number of seats to even begin to Dent the BJP there is another barrier BJP is 50% plus vote share in 224 seats in 2019 now viewers let me break this down for you from 257 seats across up mp Rajasthan Gujarat Karnataka Delhi harana utarak and Maharashtra BJP won 224 seats with a vote share of 50% plus the takeaway Congress must sway 10% to 15% votes 10 to 15% votes from BJP in these states and this brings us to the third barrier bjp's 171 walkovers the Congress won only 15 of the 186 direct fights with the BJP Congress must win over 100 seats for the India block to take shape the takeaway here is that in 2004 Congress was able to form UPA 1 with just 145 seats a must win at least 100 seats against the BJP to Triple its 2019 tally can it do it viewers that's the question another barrier nda's Southern Comfort BRS erosion in Telangana and nda's cast combo resurgent one resurrected one in Andra will translate into more seats for the Modi Le ruling front just a 10% vote swing away from the BRS in Telangana allows BJP to back six seats if you were just to look at the historic data viewers the takeaway here is that gains in telengana and Andra could offset losses in Maharashtra where some people are projecting a weakness in the NDA on account of some of its new allies there's a another barrier the entry barrier five BJP has an utar so to speak viewers pun intended BJP won 40 seats in utar Pradesh with more than 50% vote share in 2019 despite bsp and SP Alliance the takeaway is almost impossible for India to form government without winning uttar Pradesh but viewers hope lives ET Turner India's democracy has thrown up surprise results in the past I don't personally recall massive vote swings of of more than 10 to 15% 15% especially at the national level but viewers there's always a first time it's happened at the state level on several occasions in an issueless that's what people are saying issueless election a non-existent wave election local factors come into play things can be very quickly up in the air viewers so let's open this up let's ask some fundamental questions and I want to first begin with cist political commentator Dr Su SI Raman we have an informed panel Rahul vhma is also here with us we have cist U pradep bandari we have of course senior journalist Dr Benda Chri who's a number cruncher himself so Dr Raman look there are these barriers do you see these barriers crumbling can it happen and if so is there any precedence in history and if you could take us through some of these barriers that I have sort of commented upon to show that yes this is a distinct possibility that these barriers can crumble barriers can crumble in any election Rahul and we have seen as you rightly said at the state level multiple times the national level we saw what happened in the aftermath of the emergency in 1977 what uh results came up then and then we saw a complete reversal in 1980 which was hardly you know three and a half years later so I don't uh anybody who says that you know it's all over I know that there have been desperate attempts including co-opting some of theologists to come up and say you know BJP will win it'll be more than 2019 and so on but you know at the end of the day all that it seems to betray is a greater level of nervousness you don't need to if you're winning 400 or you're winning 300 plus there is no need to keep TomTom okay I think we're losing Dr Raman Dr Raman signal issue coming through yeah can you hear me yeah I can hear you now can you hear me now yes yes I can hear you can you hear me now so I I I think the problem Rahul is that there is a nervousness which is clearly felt in the BJP that perhaps things are not going as per plan and how much ever the uh you know the so-called cists and political analyst some of them are trying to cover their tracks by saying one thing today and one thing tomorrow but uh some of them have consistently said repeat of 2019 2019 is going to happen again and so on but clearly there is nervousness and I think that today as Sanjay Kumar of CSD has said the question that is being debated is is 272 going to happen or not no nobody is talking of 350 nobody is talking of 400 everyone is asking one question will the BJP or the NDA be able to reach 272 or well at least you know these are anecdotal again again sir you know look I put out some data points we need to come up with counterfactuals to show that yes these swings are possible that these massive margins can I tell you one yes go ahead I I'll tell you one yeah u in in 5 years time in I I take my home state Tamil Nadu which swings violently from one side to the other it has been swinging for the past 25 years routinely until J put an end to it in 2016 the vot shares are never that different between the two alliances it's about 2% here three a close in 1991 in 1991 between 91 and 96 there was a complete massive swing in the v share between the a DMK and the DMK 91 was a post Rajiv Gandhi assassination election 96 was when J herself lost her seat so I have seen this in multiple States we've seen it um you know happen in um in States like Karnataka too in the past but the my interesting Dr Ran you said that it was a post Rajiv Gandhi assassination election so there was a dramatic dramatic happen stance here we are being told it's an issueless you know W I can go back further go back further 1977 No 19 1980 no no 1980 there the MGR government uh fought the Lo SAA elections MGR was in power MGR was dismissed he fought the Loa elections and they were routed the DMK and the Congress swept the Loa elections okay three months later the assembly elections were held and NR won 134 seats and romped back to Power the difference in timing between the two election that is happened I mean that has happened as late as as yes that's happened as late as 2020 Delhi if you look at Delhi or even 2015 Delhi but again that's a state versus National anyhow let's let's open this up let's open this up viewers look we're talking about a national election we're talking about personalities one side is Narendra Modi 10 years in power someone that three states to go again yes someone I think you're not getting the point you don't need every state to reverse I understand I'm not I'm just talking about seats right now I'm not even going into the States you know then it becomes even more cloudy the picture any pradep bandari who is with Juni bath of course author and a seist comes out with a large number of polls uh some of them have been quite remarkably accurate prep so let me just put this to you I put out some data set some barriers some entry barriers if you please can these just suddenly collapse have the these instances happened in the past can you point out statistically if this is possible at all uh rul thank you so much for having me on your show and as I speak to you I'm speaking you from Ground Zero uh I you were spoke you were speaking about the state of utar Pradesh and right now I'm in the state of utar Pradesh and you've mentioned certain data points let me say an outrightly answer that it is extremely difficult for such a Jude shift to happen now Rahul I will not speak about anecdotes or historical facts I'll just give you certain data points based on what is happening on the ground because in the last four to five months I've roughly traversed with my team of 100 researchers every other state and we have the background of getting the 2019 elections also actually rul we are looking at a country where Narendra Modi has increased its vort in 2014 from 15 crores to 22 crores in 2019 so what we basically talking about if there's a huge anti- inomancy we are talking about a 15 CR vote shift which is taking place from prime minister Narendra Modi towards India Alliance historically it has not happened and on the ground for that to happen there has to be an extremely huge sense of anti-incumbency now for that anti-incumbency to happen there are two states which are extremely critical one is the state of utar Pradesh and the other is the state of Maharashtra now as I speak from utar Pradesh let me tell you Rahul that the B J party from data points every election since 2014 has only grown stronger in utar Pradesh you take out this Assembly Election where the BJP has increased its vot has come back with 2/3 majority if you look at the 2019 election where despite the SP and the bsp alliance the B J party VES sh increase from 41% to 49% we are forgetting one very important factor while discussing all these seats and Port margins that uh cast is no longer a very dominating factor in deciding Indian elections it is class which plays a very important role and every election since 2014 has been dominated by the women vote which is wherever the women have voted that is where the party has won whether it is Bengal 2021 whether it is 2014 19 20 now what I see from the ground Rahul there's a huge sense of pro incumbency in the women electorate which is 50% of the electorate of the 95 CR registered voters and there is and as rural areas you go and have you travel and if your commentators go ahead and travel on the ground you will see in fact I was in sultanpur the huge sense of welfare positive which is taking place on Narendra Modi so in fact I would put you a count I would put you another fact that do not be surprised if the Bia Jan party increases its vot sharees and maintains its vot share of 50% which was NDA last time in uh in uttar Pradesh last another Point let us look at another data point is the BJP only only diminishing or is the BJP expanding now there are very states where the bhy J party is expanding look at the state of utar Pradesh where the BJP got eight seats and at this moment the Bia J party's graph sheet is only increasing further look at the state of Telangana where in the assembly elections the BJP got a single digit vote share and it increased to more than 20% in the Loa election and it got four seats with an evaporated vs there is the possibility that the BJP can emerge disting the largest party in fact that is what the around the suggesting look at the state of Tamil Nadu from where Suman has come Tamil Nadu the bhy J party last time had got two to two and a half percentage vot share this time you might see a situation of it Crossing 15% sh so what I'm trying to establish Rahul that there are many areas where the BJP might end up spending its seat share and vot share and the areas where it had maintained its lead margins it is extremely extremely difficult for the India Alliance to shift a 50 percentage v share margin which the BJP had won into an India Alliance shifting 15 to 20% vote rul 78 seats which were close margin seats last time even in those close margin seats it the Bary J party was not winning all one B so it's not necessary that the 78 Clos margin seats where the India Alliance had won say 35% of them it will end up winning those 35 percentage so what I'm looking at Rahul is that the waves are not generally seen with people shouting it's like a family when the child is born the father will show immense love as the family in the relationship increases the bond may not be as expressive but the bond tendance what I see on the ground with Narendra Modi at this moment that the bond is connect and people have complete Clarity and R another last point with which I will end please look at any election people have never voted confusion 2004 is not the right parallel because in 2004 before the loab elections the btia J party was a double digit seat share party in utar Pradesh it had broken the alliance with mayavati and uh there were issues with the BJP and the RSS and right now the BJP is strongest in ut Pradesh that time BJP was Urban dominated party right now it's and about 50 plus seats were with the SP and the bsp you're absolutely right there that that has changed absolutely so yes so just to point I do not see any amount of confusion in the mind of the voters in fact I put it in differently rul that we might think in Delhi that the voters there is a huge sense of confusion I believeing across 15 state that the voters have already made up their mind and you will see that on June 4th what I'm let me bring in like they like they made up their mind in Bengal okay okay one second one second one second let's not speak over each other Gentlemen let's not speak over each other let's speak 30 years there are other people also on this can I come on the Bal part can I come on the B just just 10 seconds in Bal in 2019 the BJP got 18 seats which was there so let us wait and watch for the Bengal result went from 17 to 40% therei in the Bengal assembly elections and what happened gentlemen gentlemen I need to step in here I need to bring in Rahul now rul excuse please excuse please excuse please excuse I'm I'm bringing in Rahul VMA senior fellow of the CPR Dr Benda CH is also there with us they also taken out time to be on this show please Rahul Verma what do you make of some of these uh statistics statistical exercises that show that the BJP is very very dominant at least if you go into the past and therefore it will be difficult for the opposition to jump dump these barriers so to speak okay thank you Rahul let me make four points first I think in terms of probabilities and not possibilities because everything is possible uh but if you start thinking in terms of higher and lower probability things becomes much more clearer second Point see any party is going to project more than it can actually chew BJP is going to talk about 370 and 400 and Congress is going to say that we are going to bring down BJP below 250 and or we are going to win more than 150 seats so politicians and political parties are going to talk like this let's not take their uh uh sort of like statements on face value what is more possible is even and preo surveys has projected most preo surveys has projected in the month of late March or early April that bgp is poised to get somewhere around 320 seats and now what seems to be happening that uh uh some of the pollsters and some people who are picking up chatter on the ground they have started saying BJP may fall below 270 and so what the possible range of conversation is that BJP is either around 260 270 or might be able to crosses to uh uh uh uh uh 2019 number what does that signify that signifies very same point what you actually mentioned that BJP is in a very very dominant position and it's a very formidable Force so yes it is possible to see a 7.8 point percentage swing but it's very difficult to break that wall of dominance Point number three in normal elections in issueless elections you cannot break through the ball of dominance elections and politics have certain systematic element if BJP or or this kind of dominant BJP has to be defeated you should have seen an extraordinary mobilization by the opposition parties uh starting say January February March you saw this happening in 2014 when BJP managed to got a big swing in its favor against the UPA or congress party so you could see that palpable anti-incumbency what you are not seeing in this election either a very high pro- incumbent sentiment or a very high anti-incumbency sentiment given that the fundamental of election is whether there is a high proin or high high anti-incumbent sentiment what you are much more likely to see that the base effect of 2019 will play into this election which means yes it is possible for BJP to lose 105 seats but it's also possible for BJP to gain some seats I think from the bjp's perspective their arithmetic is very simple their arithmetic is that in Northwestern areas in areas where they had picked they might be losing some seats and this is where the chatter is coming from that they picking uh losing some seats in Karnataka in Rajasthan maybe in harana but from bjp's own perspective that in non-core areas or where there was possibility of increasing the seats including uh up which Pradip pointed out BJP is hoping to pick up seats in Bengal in orisa in Telangana and Andra and net net they would hope that there is no big change my final point is if we think that BJP is losing seats in all the states yes and they are losing in big way there is perhaps a small undercurrent against them and they might not be able to make gains in in other parts of the country as BJP claims to be what we are missing at the moment that opposition between March and now hasn't done anything extra to be able to attract what like there there was palpable like there was an uh economic anxiety all preo surveys which Pro projected 37 to 40% votes for BJP said they will win 315 3206 they also said people are unhappy about their economic situation what doesn't seem to have happened in these two months or three months a ground swell mobilization by the opposition on some of the economic questions given that those things have not happened I will hold my horses and would say that the base effect of 2019 continues to be in motion at the moment okay very interesting Dr Chri before I come to you I just want to to um quickly tell viewers that in barrier 2 uh the BJP won 144 seats with a vote share of over 50% across some states in the north which have a total of 257 seats there's a bit of an error in that graphic it's 144 seats so uh yes Dr Chri go ahead sir Dr Chri namaskar number Congress vot fa 1991 Congress Party 8 SE NDA BJP NP con strike r% bid con that's an important Point uh let me bring in again Mr Rahul uh once again let me just ask you this Mr vhma the fact of the matter is that till the Congress doesn't do the heavy lifting it's not going to be able to OU the BJP the India block is not going to be able to do it it's as simple as that and the Congress therefore has to win one in every three seats it's contesting to get anywhere near 115 117 Mark let alone the 145 or whatever it was in 2004 when it could form the UPA absolutely right right rul see this election in that sense the geography of this election was very very clear that unless Congress pulls up a weight and puts up a good and credible fight against the BJP BJP will be in Striking Distance of power now uh but from the Congress perspective I think their game has been very simple that if we can pull down BJP a bit they don't have to basically defeat BJP if they can pull down a BJP a bit uh in Karnataka in harana in Rajasthan uh in Delhi or and and maybe in Alliance with SP uh get some seats in up I think their understanding is if they can snatch 25 to 30 seats from BJP in these states uh and not let BJP uh do well in other parts of India where India alliance members are there then BJP is going to be below 272 and that's I think uh uh the frontier which which the opposition is playing opposition in some ways is not playing to win the election opposition is playing to defeat BJP these are two very different mindsets from the two parties have gone into this election I will add something to this which is this is not to say that oppos otion hasn't done anything there has been no Narrative of opposition on the ground what happened that opposition lost crucial chunks of time between September and February they had done well in terms of building India opposition block uh but uh between the months of October November December uh Congress somehow did not do uh enough on the India Alliance sort of like taking it forward and that basically created whatever momentum that was was getting built okay well well viewers look let's be very honest the Congress holds the key if the Congress doesn't do the heavy lifting the India block will suffer and Modi has focused in speech after speech there's an analysis that has been done only on the Congress because he knows if he can keep it under 100 the BJP has a very good chance of returning comfortably to power I leave it at this viewers we come back on a very important agenda that needs to be called out it's the Western huge section of the western press and what they're up to in this country

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Id: gdj1YFFrXAc

Length: 30min 40sec (1840 seconds)

Published: Tue May 21 2024