Jonathan Roth - Civil War Coming to America?

[Music] is Jonathan Roth he handles large television projects for various broadcast corporate and NGO clients mr. Roth spent over a decade as a producer at major television corporations like Bell media and Roger Media mr. OTT produced long format conversations with individuals such as such as former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper former Mexican President Vicente Fox former Canadian Prime Minister Kim Campbell Prince Edward and author Salman Rushdie mr. Roth has also worked on camera interviewing people such as former zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe albanian prime minister celebricial' and former british columbian premier Gordon Campbell mr. OTT will today talk about his civil war coming to America mr. ladies and gentlemen please give a warm welcome to mr. rod thank you well it's a real privilege to speak with all of you today about this topic it is when Jan first sent this my way it's something that he and I had been talking about privately for a while this particular subject and I'm about to get into a story as to I was going to touch on this subject with a documentary film I was gonna work on a couple years ago and I decided not to which I'm gonna get into here but maybe I should have it might have made me some money but I just want to preface this conversation first of all by saying I know that this is a very serious topic and I think that coming from a media background myself seeing what's happening in television in the United States there's no question in my mind that this topic it Garner's eyeballs I know that even from a interview and article I did myself it was these things just roar across social media anything to do with civil war in the United States it's very very popular so that being said it is a very serious topic and it's one that all of us sitting in this room whether you're American Canadian or doesn't matter where you're from this is a serious thing and this is serious business and if some of the predictions are true that civil war is indeed coming to America I don't think any of us want to be anywhere near this you know the country that's just to the south of the city were currently in so I just want to start with a little bit of background about myself I'm not an American here in fact I I this might not be popular in this room but I love America I'm a Canadian was born in in Toronto but I spent the early years of my adolescence so basically from the ages of nine to twelve in Texas there with my family and it was there that I really obviously when you're kid you have no idea about you know national borders and and cultural differences between various groups but that really taught me something about America because I witnessed a lot of positive things down there and ever since I just have this warm affection I think for for our American brothers for the last five years I've had a u.s. work visas so I'm a Canadian but most of my work is in the u.s. some internationally but most of it is down the US so I do a lot of traveling it was just in New York last week I spent a great deal of time down there so what I want to do is I want to start with a story January the 20th 2017 you were probably watching events in Washington DC on television well I was in Washington DC because one of my clients was very tight with the Republican establishment so I was there just to get a lay of the land and see what was happening and as I was I I left my hotel room that morning you know obviously there are people milling around everywhere but the first thing I noticed was was that the National Guard if first of all I guess a reason behind was anyone in DC for the inauguration couple people the first thing I noticed was the National Guard had blocking off my hotel was about three blocks from the White House but all the streets leading to the White House into the National Mall were blocked off by these massive dump trucks and the National Guard and National Guard no weapons were visible although it was clear that there were there were weapons parked in in the Humvees behind them but what I noticed about the faces of all of the soldiers that were standing guarding there they were nervous there was fear in their eyes as you would walk past them they were wondering what was going to happen so I all I did was I didn't actually go to the National Mall to witness the inauguration there was no point I just wanted to walk around and get a vibe for what was happening and what I realized as the day went on you know the protests were typically if typical if you've ever been to the you know have been lots of protests in Seattle and various things that have been interesting to see and it was very similar to that sort of a vibe but what started to happen was once the inauguration was over and the Trump supporters started coming back from the National Mall and usually in groups of say you know two to seven people say and they'd have them make America great hat on as they would walk by you would see the protesters just item as they walk by and it was almost like the Trump supporters were deer that just had to get the heck out of there because they were worried about what was what was gonna happen the fear was palpable and you could tell when you'd walk past them because they would be nervously looking around wondering we need to get out of here so eventually yes the violence started and I ran to it it was about a block away from where I was I stood there watching for a while and then I thought you know what I'm a Canadian with a work visa in the United States it wouldn't be good if I got arrested I need to continue to work down here so I left I went to my hotel room but what happened that night was the entire evening all I heard were police sirens yelling and screaming outside my hotel and helicopters flying over my police helicopters flying with the floodlights going everywhere and that left me with this impression wondering and obviously at it worked its way up in the the election of Trump but I wondered what path is America really on is this developing towards something like civil war and that's when I decided maybe I should do a documentary on this on this subject and I talk to a lot of people discussed this topic back and forth and I hit a little bit of push back from quite a few people and one of the primary things was they would say do you really want to fear monger on this topic and second of all do you want to be the person that lights the flame in terms of violence in any way and I thought you know what it's it's not really worth it to me I'm not sure I really want to do that but I did as an aside I actually I did go to a little company in New York City and I met with the director of sales at a company called Cambridge analytic which I'm sure all of you have heard of and I spent some time there Kant found them very interesting he just as an aside because I would assume that everyone in this room is quite concerned about the erosion of privacy in the United States what he told me what's been in the news about Cambridge and outlook is there's a lot more yet to come out what he told me was they had data points and basically 250 million Americans and I think I actually wrote it down here so I make sure I say it right but as he so succinctly pointed out the company this is Cambridge a new analytic a knows the porns habits of every single evangelical Christian in America and I'm not sure that that's a positive development but long story long story short I I was concerned about making this film and I eventually reached the point where I decided look it's it's too incendiary I don't want to go there it's not it's not worth going there subject wise but there was one other thing happening too and I think all of you if you think about this you've probably experienced that this and that's that there's this cognitive dissonance going on so if you turn on CNN or Fox News or MSNBC in the United States and you see what's being said there it feels like the whole country's about to erupt in flames whereas when you leave and you just you go you through Chicago a fair bit you walk through Chicago the airport in Chicago everybody's going their way everybody's doing what they need to do as I say I go to New York a lot I go to Dallas I go over the US everywhere I go people are friendly customer service is usually good it's better than here I'll say people are friendly things are I say to myself is this a country that could truly the people are gonna take up arms and shoot at each other so there's this cognitive dissonance going on that is this really really possible in the end I shall the idea this being said especially with what's happened here over the last six months it had to be revisited and chance given the opportunity to to revisit it is the United States about to engage in another civil war and first let's just go over some facts so Rasmussen polling which is a polling company United States did some polling last month and roughly 31% of likely US voters say it's likely that the US will experience a second civil war at some point in the next five years so one in three people in the United States almost 60 percent of all voters in the US are concerned that those opposed to Trump's policies will resort to violence and there's no question that Americans are becoming far more partisan in their views the Pew Research Center which is another very very reputable polling company conducted a study last year and it was titled the partisan divide on political values grows even wider and essentially what the crux of what they were saying was that more are now on the left and the right politically in that within the spectrum holding with fewer holding a mix of positions so there used to be a time where you know you could be a right winger but you might hold some left wing positions and vice versa well that has hardened where the right is on the right the left is on the left and that there's they don't mix they don't mix in other words political position positions are most definitely hardening in late 2016 vice news released a documentary titled a house divided and I don't know if anyone's seen this documentary but if there's anything you could do with your time later on today or later this week go watch it it's on YouTube it is a stunning film it is extremely well produced essentially all the major political players of the last decade in the United States are in it from Obama Pelosi McConnell wasn't in it but John Boehner and Eric Cantor and such and essentially it's a dissection of what's happening in the United States politically and there's this exchange that happens towards the end of the film and I want to take a quote there because the first time I saw it I had to stop in and go back and watch it again because it was so I I just thought it was so a scary and be profound and it was it exchanged between Shane Smith who's a he's an owner of ice news but he was the reporter in this film and Frank Luntz who if any of you know who he is he's a Republican pollster he's very famous in the United States probably the most famous pollster in the country today and Smith asks him this question he says if it's toxic and he's referring to the political system in the US and it can't be fixed where does American politics go from here and this is lensses reply he says that's why I tell people I'm going to New Zealand and I'm going to buy 15 acres somewhere and I'll sell out 14 so if you want to buy an acre let me know and it cuts to Shane Smith and you just kind of see him what are you kidding here and then he says once says no I'm not kidding I'm going in December at some point and this is this is where what he said I just thought I can't believe somebody as mainstream and establishment as him is saying this at some point the economy just stops functioning the Greeks did not survive the Romans did not survive the French did not survive the British did not survive why should we think the American Empire will survive I don't know and I unfortunately will probably still be alive I wish I wasn't when this whole thing comes tumbling down this is the most mainstream pollster in the United States saying this in a very public forum most a lot of political commentators and figures are saying obviously the civil wars around the corner or there at least soft-pedaling some sort of violent political action in foreign policy you may have seen this foreign policy is a very very mainstream establishment foreign policy magazine if you want to know what the establishments thinking you need to read it in March 2017 so just roughly just over a year ago Keith mines he's a former US Special Forces officer in a diplomat posted to a whole bunch of countries that have gone through internal civil strife he wrote an article and basically what he said was he predicted based on his experience working overseas that there's a 60% chance of civil war in America within the next 10 to 15 years Steve King is a Republican congressman and he's a bit of a blowhard at times but back in June he was commenting on on the protests taking place at the Immigration and Customs Enforcement holding facility in Portland Oregon which is ice and I'm sure you've all heard of ice especially over the last month on Twitter he said the following he said America is heading in the direction of another Harpers Ferry after that comes Fort Sumter and he said this publicly so if you need any but of a history lesson essentially Harpers Ferry was the first violent action that led directly to the Civil War and obviously Fort Sumter is where the first shots of the Civil War occurred commentator dennis prager a right-winger believes america is already in a second Civil War Americans are more divided today morally ideologically and politically than they were during the Civil War several members of the Trump administration we've all seen this being kicked out of restaurants and such Maxine Waters Democratic congressman congresswoman you've heard what she's been saying essentially saying that the Trump needs to be resisted and ultimately impeached and that Trump administration officials should be harassed and I'm gonna guess in this room a pretty sophisticated audience I'm gonna guess that many of you saw this a day after Maxine Waters said what she said the Trump administration officials needed to be harassed splinter news which is a media company owned by Univision which is a has an audience comprised of American Latinos and Hispanics Univision czar sorry splinter News's senior writer a guy by the name of Nour Hamilton he wrote an article and the title the article was this is just the beginning and this is this is a bit of what he said read a recent history book the US had thousands of domestic bombings per year in the 1970s this is what happens when citizens decide on mass that their political system is corrupt racist and unresponsive the people out of power have only just begun to flex their dissatisfaction the day will come sooner than you all think when Trump administration's officials will look back fondly on the time when they all they had to worry about was getting hollered at and a Mexican restaurant and then earlier this week President Obama was in Johannesburg and Joburg in South Africa and he was delivering the annual Nelson Mandela lecture he said many interesting things but this is one that I pulled out from what he said and because you'll notice that he's he's beginning to be more vocal about what's happening in DC Obama said look at history look at the facts the fact that countries which rely on rabid nationalism and xenophobia and doctrines of tribal and racial or religious superiority as their main organizing principle the thing that holds people together eventually those countries find themselves consumed by civil war or external war check the history books this is what obama said well unfortunately his own Democratic Party is steeped in this poison of racial superiority it's something called identity politics but the Democrats are not alone in this as you all know Trump as many things dumb is not one of them any reasonable observer can certainly see him playing with identity politics himself albeit with a bit of a mask on but he's positioned himself as the only option for whites he's positioning himself this way and his proposition is pretty simple this is what he's essentially saying why would you a white person vote for a party the Democrats that view you as complicit in the crime of slavery and poverty and the like I'm the only one that can save you this is what he's essentially saying this is the proposition that he's giving to white people in America and the truth is is that it's working and you know what as an aside I've always wondered this as I observe American election television coverage they always break down voting in the US on television on election night by race as if race should have anything to do with it it means that my estimation it it doesn't matter and Martin Luther King jr. this is something I've told my kids I think this is probably one of the most profound statements in the other 20th century when he said I have a dream that my four little kids will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character now let's all analyze this is this what's happening in the political system in the United States today are people being judged by the content of their character avoid the color of their skin or other identifiable characteristics mostly around sexuality and things such as that this this is not what's happening in the u.s. so getting back to the core message here politically the country most definitely seems shattered the language being used by politicians is becoming more and more strident you notice it every day DC politicians know their political persuasion also used to spend a fair bit of time together with one another talking this doesn't happen anymore and there's two primary reasons the first one is they're on the road all the time raising money for their next campaign because of the influence of money in in the US political system and the second reason is because the political basis of both parties refused to allow politicians to get together they can't be seen with one another as we saw when Boehner and Obama were meeting they had to do it in secret because if both of their bases knew it it just wouldn't work so in other words compromises can't happen anymore because they're not even allowed to talk to one another and at the same time once political beliefs this is it's something that that is concerning once political beliefs have become the ultimate litmus test of intellectual worth so if you are a Democrat and I'm a Republican you're worthless because you don't believe the same political things I do and vice versa this is the attitude that's developing down there which any of you who spent any time I'm sure you run into it and all of this is happening all of it's happening well right and left-wing media outlets pour gasoline on this thirsty fire which is only increasing in fire every single day so take that which is you know basically the the political mailer that were that we're seeing in the u.s. we take that and then at the same time we're gonna add in the social and moral fabric of America in terms of where that's at today and it is most definitely changing in unprecedented ways and I would argue that these transformations could lead to revolutionary consequences so there was a study done in Norway back in 2016 and it was titled do F Nick demographic changes trigger civil war and it's Tuttle studied civil wars globally from 1962 to 2013 and this was the result this is this is what the the study said when the dominant majority has a relative share of 80 percent or higher the risk of experiencing civil war is less likely on the other side a weak majority have a positive effect on civil war signaling that when a majority is losing its share the risk of conflict is likely to increase so all of you are probably at least somewhat familiar with the demographic trends in the US but the makeup is most rapidly changing in 2010 a census said that whites were roughly 60% of the population in the United States by 2045 they will be in the minority there will be 49.9% so that's 35 years from the last census interestingly of all Americans 18 and under within two years whites will be a minority so in 2020 and the fastest-rising group in the United States or Hispanics in 2010 they comprised of 9% of the population by 2045 they'll be 25% and we can go down the list so obviously that's happening at the same time we have the implosion of the nuclear family which we can all argue about whether this is a good or a bad thing look there have been numerous numerous studies that have said what is the best environment to raise children it's most definitely in a family where there's a mother and a father within the household the number of babies being born to unwed mothers in the United States is over 40% over 40 percent and we have to ask the question is there a broad social price to be paid for this if boys are being raised by their mothers and don't have positive male role models what outcome can we expect and that's a question all of you should think about and let's face it the much vast majority of boys whether they're being raised by their mothers or Father's or whatever the combination happens to be boys are spending hundreds or thousands of hours sitting around playing first-person shooter games they know how to kill people already so that just makes you wonder what are the trend lines where like in terms of the morality of what's happening there the general culture promoted by the left is most definitely ascendant in American life that control media outlets and they're using that power as a cultural alienating this broad swath of what you could say was middle America the left considered those who don't buy into the moral changes that have swept over the country in the last 30 years the gay marriage today it's transgender rights things along these lines the left considered these people to be bigots and uneducated losers so I guess the question is this how can you talk to someone you believe is inferior to you because of what they believe how do you talk to them if this is what you truly believe and then there's there's the big issue and this is when many people just you know anecdotally you have a conversation they always bring this up and that's the Second Amendment guns in America so obviously for the most part conservatives believe in in the Second Amendment and they do want to hang on to those guns and it seems like the left wants those guns so at one point is there any sort of middle ground that can be reached between those two opposing groups and I would argue no there's not any sort of middle ground that's that's gonna happen there so as family connections fray the trust in broader public institution is also decaying very quickly trust in Congress religious institutions and big business they're all at all-time lows right now and this is another interesting fact that maybe some of you haven't thought about the u.s. used to be the number one missionary sending country on earth as faith in the religion of their forefathers dies Christianity is dying so does the impetus to spread the message this fusion of both Christianity and American political beliefs democratic institutions these sorts of things so when you lose your religion this is what I would argue when you lose your religion and it isn't replaced with anything you die and that's what's happening the United States today there is one American institution that does command broad respect and has has actually grown over the last thirty years in the public sphere and that is the military and my question is what does this mean if the military is the most respected institution in the United States take a look at how many generals that are in Trump's White House a few of them have left but there are quite a few that have been moved in as positions within the State Department because retired generals are the only ones that can be confirmed by Congress these days because of the the the betrayal that's happening between the two parties there there's no question that military influence at the upper levels of the political system the United States is increasing so I wanted take a step back in 2016 I was in the UK take me an interview with a very infamous British politician his name's George Galloway he's a socialist and for the most part frankly nothing I'd agree with him on almost nothing except this and he said one comment that I thought was very prescient he said political flags and borders are always temporary always nothing is ever permanent he was referring to the dispute with Israel and Palestinians as he related that but I thought to myself he's he's a hundred percent right so going back to this question is the United States about to engage in another civil war and I don't know the answer for sure let's face it no one does but here are the big questions that anyone that's saying that all civil wars around the corner these are the questions that they need to answer they need to answer these questions who's gonna lead this war what will the ultimate aims be and chiefly what will the nature of the fighting be and who's going to do it these these are the questions so who's gonna lead is Donald Trump gonna lead it I mean he obviously if he's in peached he's guy you know it's clear that he wants to drag people as far you know down his rathole that he wants to do it so if he is in peach you can be sure that he's gonna try to activate at least some part of his base but are people gonna pick up their guns and kill their next-door neighbors because Trump's been impeached I would question that on the Democratic side who's gonna lead this civil war Elizabeth Warren Barack Obama Hillary Clinton I mean there's no one on the Left that you could argue what would be a leader that could rally all the troops to ultimately push these people to violence and then there's what will the ultimate aims be the imposition of a new political system obviously I think if we looked at it look at it realistically I think that's probably what this a lot of this issue is about it's about the imposition of a new political system a new structure but other ultimate aims the genocide of a particular race all white people gonna round up all Hispanics and kill them all is this ultimately what what's going to happen whatever an attempt to create a new nation with new borders right I mean you could argue the first u.s. civil war wasn't really a civil war as Nicky and Bruno and I were discussing last night there the reality is is that was a rebellion that wasn't really a civil war so with the country bar to be partitioned in half would this be India Pakistan and you have 24 hours for Republicans to go here and Democrats to go there and anybody who's left after that sorry you're dead I mean honestly what would the ultimate aims of this war be and then chiefly what will the nature of the fighting be and who is going to do it so let's just say we had some sort of an insurgency where there's a lot of bombings car bombs terror attacks these sorts of things well as I already disc in the 1970s we saw literally thousands of bombings by left-wing groups in the US was there a civil war no if there's an outright war every military expert I've ever talked about when it comes to these issues has always said that given the moderate that basically the horror of the modern technology that is exsist s-- in war making millions of people would die if if if technology was unleashed the way that it could be but taking that into again into all-out war there's some other issues that need to be taken in account and that's and you might laugh at this but thirty percent of American teenagers and more than two and three adults in the u.s. is they're all considered obese or overweight so is it possible for a fat overweight culture to explode in violence and this is a serious question because what is that obesity and essentially being fat what does that say about the actual the mainly where where people at in the country and at the same time America is aging rapidly do senior citizens have the will and the means to engage in violent civil conflict so finally one of the most influential Studies on civil war conducted by two Oxford University professors argues that the causes for such conflict civil wars are primarily economic and not grievance based yes some conflicts occur because of a loss of power by the dominant majority that is true but economics are typically at the heart of the issue so if civil wars are primarily about economics then how could a civil war began in our current economic environment according to a 2011 study even the poorest in America have a car multiple TVs air conditioning and access to food and medical care and amazingly the typical average poor American has more living space in his or her home than the average non poor European has and plus if you believe the numbers and I think we're gonna be hearing about inflation in the next stuff you minutes here the economy is supposedly growing maybe it's not due to inflation we're not really sure all we know is it's not as bad at look is the united states venezuela most certainly it is not but i guess the question is this is our current economic climate going to last forever can this last forever and within this context it's easier to understand why governments did what they did during the 2008 crisis they were petrified because political evil always happens when there's economic disaster so if we go through another economic crisis similar to 2008 which many people Doug Casey who we'll all hear from later on today he's been obviously suggesting this could happen sooner or later what's gonna happen that that's that's a big question so is the u.s. about to engage in another savour keep on asking this question and the media would like you to think that a civil war is imminent but you have to remember if it bleeds it leads this story line like a car accident or stormy Daniels or anything that gets eyeballs this is what leads and that's why it's there because we all look so the question is is this war imminent and I personally believe no it's not imminent but about five or six years ago I directed a documentary for Casey Research called meltdown America and in that film I there was a conversation with a gentleman by the name of Myka Milkovich who was a he lived in Yugoslavia when the country split up and and this is his quote he said everyone becomes afraid when there's civil strife happening in the country so they buy guns and then it only takes one person to kill someone else usually out of fear and the killing starts civil wars can start with a very very small trigger just about to wrap this up so I was in I was back in Washington DC about three weeks ago and while I was there I met with several very senior intelligence and political people and over lunch it was very interesting what I was told the words decay and decadence as it related to America were brought up more than once by them and these are gentlemen who are let's just say on the further end of their further own in the spectrum of life than I am much much life experience including many many years in the White House and the words decadent decay were used and I just thought to myself are we witnessing the end of the American Empire is America truly are we are we witnessing something that's going to lead to some sort of potential political breakup what's what's happening here and the and really the answer to that question is really up to American they're gonna have to decide what happens but to end here I want to just take a quote from a book you've all I'm sure heard of by Edward Gibbon titled the decline and fall of the Roman Empire this is what he says about why Rome fell the story of its ruin is simple and obvious and instead of inquiring why the Roman Empire was destroyed we should rather be surprised that it had subsisted for so long the victorious legions who in distant Wars acquired the vices of strangers and mercenaries first oppressed the freedom of the Republic and afterwards violated the majesty of the purple the Emperor's anxious for their personal safety and the public peace were reduced to the base expedient of corrupting the discipline which rendered them alike formidable to their sovereign and to the enemy the vigor of the military government was relaxed and finally dissolved by the partial institutions of Constantine and the Roman world was ultimately overwhelmed by a deluge of barbarians thus was the end of Rome is America next thank you [Applause]

Channel: CapitalismMorality

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Length: 31min 5sec (1865 seconds)

Published: Sun Nov 18 2018