Is There a Global War Coming? | George Friedman at Brain Bar

[Music] hi is a global war coming of course there has never been a century that didn't have a global war the 20th century you know about 19th centuries and the poliana whores 18th century was the Seven Years War we can go back and back and back and back but if you don't think there's a global war coming then you're saying that the 21st century is going to be the first century in which there isn't a global war and I will bet against you any amount you want in fact global war all wars sitting with you right now it's sitting in your pocket I present to you the iPhone you've seen this it carries such superb tools on it as YouTube and Pinder and all the essentials and you guys are so cool that you know that this represents the future and makes you completely different because well you're cool let's talk about it foundation this phone is a microchip the microchip was developed to guide us intercontinental ballistic missiles against Soviet targets it had had a small computer it had to be very light it had to be very accurate and the microchip was the solution and all of the weapons that we use during a cold war the threatening dilation of humanity was built on the microchip and you now use it today because it's cool but that's what it is take a look at the other thing you have a camera in your phone the digital camera that was developed by the US National Reconnaissance Office for spy satellites probably had was that if you took regular pictures with film how do you get them to earth so you have to have a way to take pictures of targets of various sorts that didn't require you to drop a Kodak film pack down to the earth of course that's what they did at the beginning and they had to develop some sort of way to take pictures that could get back to earth fast just the way you send selfies to your mother or something and that was the digital camera it was driven by something called the CCD which I remember the name once but I can't remember what is about and what it did was it took digital pictures that could be beamed back to earth to target people your innocent little camera had its birth in spy satellites there's GPS you love it you walk around the street looking at it instead of the traffic you get killed this cool device GPS was invented by the United States Air Force what's called math star to guide cruise missiles to their targets until our our B units precision in their land navigation in others it was invented to let soldiers know where they were okay and it's the most dangerous thing you have in your device because if you don't get hit by a car you've got to crash yours while you're staring at it so it has a violent nature built-in now all this is designed to get to the place where all humanity lives which is the internet the internet was developed by Defense Advanced Research Project agency to move classified data from one secret lab to the other so something in Oak Ridge Tennessee labs there we've moved to Los Alamos and that would be moved to Brookhaven National Laboratories what were they doing in these laboratories doing research on nuclear wars because that was the big story then it was developed with only one thing in mind to make research more efficient and when you get on the internet all the protocols you get and all the cool stuff to get you around we're developed by American scientists who are deeply involved in the Cold War now you then have the cell phone which mostly you don't use anymore because you irritate me by sending me text messages instead of picking up the phone okay the cell phone was first deployed in 1985 by the United States Army and was used the first time in Operation Desert War and it was entirely invented to facilitate military communication bottom line is there is nothing in this phone or if you're a religious fanatic in the Android there was nothing in this that was not created for war so you think about war as a distant thing you think about war as something that doesn't really have to do with you and then you pick up this phone and every bit of it is drenched in war in fear of war and everything else now the Americans are peculiar in the United States government they're not allowed to have patents basic rule is if the US government invented it and it's not secret it's yours for the taking it's an odd rule but it works for us it means that everything we do in preparing for Wars is on the aircraft everything else ultimately comes down to being available so Steve Jobs so cool invented nothing he took other people's inventions of the government put them together and the only thing he invented was marketing and that was pretty cool Bill Gates invented nothing ms-dos was a program he bought from someone that had originally been developed for the Air Force zuckerberg invented even less your whole generation lives in a fantasy of creativity the basic tools that guide your life that permeate you were developed by warriors or scientists of warriors it got to you at a bunch of really smart and marketing guys put them together and convinced you they were geniuses the real genius has made $50,000 a year and retired for the marketing guys they made the money the reason I'm starting with this is to make it clear to you how intimately your life is involved with war Leon Trotsky the famous communist that we all dislike used to say you may not be interested in war but war is interested in you and what he meant by that was the fantasy that you can decide to avoid wars wars are among the most ubiquitous things in human life wars are constant they're going on now they will go on for a long time people don't like wars it doesn't matter what you like here and one of the most important things this generation must grasp is that history doesn't give a damn what you like or don't like it you may be able ennio but you bleed from bullet just the same as anybody else your life is built on the things that came out of World War two what came out of World War two two things multilateralism the belief that we should all belong to the European Union or the United Nations or the IMF or the World Bank and second the belief in technocracy World War two was won by the biggest technocratic all Dwight Eisenhower he had never heard a shot fired anger but he knew how to organize fifteen million men to wage war and out of that came a culture of experts the belief that experts can guide our society and make it effective and healthy okay and so we surround ourselves with people who know who are experts okay and a 2008 all of these experts proved well they're not quite that experts but this also led to the love of technology because World War two was won by technology by radar by radios by b-29 bombers by nuclear weapons and we believed Americans and Europeans alike in the sanctity of technology but not only that we decided to make it a virgin again very hard thing to do how do you make it a virgin again all of these technologies came out of global war we will pretend that it's no longer connected to it we'll pretend that war has nothing to do with us and the point I'm making to you is that you live every day with the product of war that every part of your life is bound up with this and the only reason you don't think of it is you don't know that and you think that if you don't know that it won't be true well it is will there be more wars wars occur when some nations rise in some nations fall World War 2 started with the rise of Germany after 1871 and unification the rise of Japan which suddenly became the Great Eastern power and the most important rise the rise of the United States in 1865 we finished a civil war six hundred thousand did 35 years later the United States produced half the manufactured goods in the world in other words Wars don't cripple you oddly enough they can enable you and this world have to make a place for the United States and there were the British Empire there was a French Empire there all of these European entities that felt that they had an inherent right to dominate the world and here came Germany here came Japan and above all here came the United States and remade the world ok and if I'd asked people in 1935 you want a world war they would have said no they would have voted that way it didn't matter what they wanted it happened and between World War 1 and World War 2 over a hundred million people died lies are crushed and it wasn't any poll that you could take that would count today you have rising and falling powers the United States remains the dominant power 25% of the world's economy is under the control of the United States the United States controls all the oceans of the old it means we get to invade people and they can invade us which is an American I'm definitely in favor of but no power in the history of the world has ever controlled all of the oceans so simultaneously we're engaged in a crisis in Korea we're fighting in the Middle East and we're deploying forces in Poland Romania and so on we have a very strange president and it doesn't matter because presidents come and go and power stays however stupid Donald Trump is the United States remains 25% of the world's economy the only power able to project force anywhere in the world for good reason to bed the United States remains in control of the C dominant in space and we will even survive Donald Trump their powers that are right declining Russia Russia is Saudi Arabia speaking Russian they depend on oil exports oil export prices cannot be controlled by the Russians at $50 a barrel they can't run the country so they will invade Syria for no apparent reason to look good see we invaded somebody good now you have a leper congratulations what are going to do with it China is a declining country it once grew to 15% it now claims to grow it six and a half percent but it is a country that is extraordinarily poor the thin strand of China that we think of as wonderful China is in part of China it sells its goods to the United States and Europe and the Europeans have screwed up so they're stagnating they can't buy all those and the Americans will screw up because we always do eventually and then we can stop buying their goods and every one of these people depend not on their own genius but on the willingness to people to buy their products who the countries that are emerging Japan actually didn't never went away is the third largest power in the world by far better Navy than China has China PR notwithstanding the only people who want the Chinese Navy and great is the US Navy because as Chinese Navy is great they get more budget so they pretend that it's really very powerful Japan is the Great East Asian power Turkey if anybody's going to settle the Arab world is the Turks because that's the only people ever did settle them during the Ottoman Empire and they're back and this chaos in Turkey as they try to reconcile secular and religious but there was chaos in the United States during a civil war chaos sometimes a store is you and sometimes it makes you a lot stronger and in this region Poland which you laugh but when I first said Japan people laughed and then I said Turkey and they laughed and not laughing don't laugh at Poland why Russia is in decline Germany exports 50% of its GDP half of its economy depends on its customers buying and right now its biggest customer is the United States and we have a crazy presence who doesn't like Merkel and he's capable of anything when you're as big as the United States you can make stupid moves and get away with it with all this rising and falling you think there won't be war well the world is filled with war right now you may disapprove it there may be a poll that says it should stop but it won't Merkel by the way said after being insulted by Trump well we've had enough we're going to defend ourselves thank God finally why she thought the United States would be offended as a sort of not having to defend Germany is not clear but how does Germany exporting fifty percent of its GDP survive ten percent loss and exports is a five percent loss in GDP which to put it in technical terms means this crude so what you have here is a declining power Russia a declining power Germany and a country in the middle that's not doing too bad Poland and that's how you figure who's going to be there now it's Russia going to go quietly into that good night I think that is Germany going to say oh well you know we'll be unemployed again 30% no that's not Germany style is hungry going to be once more as in all of this history caught that a great conflict that has no control over yeah the early 10 million people and nobody cares about you it's hungry going to wind up on the wrong side of the war we've had a perfect record so far and this is your lies will you live your life out til the end of the century as many of you might without war without death without suffering you're living in a fantasy world that's not how the human condition works before World War one everybody thought Europe could not have a war because of interdependence the Germans of the French traded so much with each other man called Norman Angelle wrote a book saying the great illusion that there could be a war he's very smart guy he was dead wrong I wish he had been like 21 in the trenches dead dead wrong but he didn't get to go the warning that I have to you is that war lurks in your life everywhere the output of the war and you can pretend this is an innocent harmless tool but every piece of it was designed to kill or to help killing it's just true it also means that you're going to have to face the fact that the odds are since it's been 70 years since the last emic war that's not going to be another 70 years before the next one it could happen but again I'll bet you won't most of you you'll excuse me I'm old and cranky and most of you are self-absorbed and belief the life that you lead is up to you your grandparents may have thought the same thing it wasn't their lives are shaped by events you think you shape your lives you think that when you buy an iPhone you are in control of your life this is this Cold War weapon combined and you use it every day and you don't know it you don't care about it and the problem not of your generation but of my generation the Boomers of every generation is we think we're different may not you're just kids and satisfies then you grow up and something completely out of control happens to you and reshapes your life it would be better if you were prepared for it if you aware of it if you understood the strange statements that are made by leaders actually could not just change your life but end it you would be able to confront this much better because what will happen is when it starts it will somehow in some way you will be stunned you will say it doesn't have anything to do with you you will say I didn't wanted I'm a millennial I get to choose I'm a boomer I didn't get to choose my father grew up in Hungary in the 1920s and 30s and he didn't decide on World War two it is important to understand how deeply intertwined your life is with war of the past and how war can come and visit you regardless of whether you wanted the confidence of youth is dangerous it is dangerous because it lives an illusion of powerfulness of making decisions that determine your future most of us all of us are caught in webs we never expected to be there and the best you can do is anticipate them and the reason you won't is you prefer the illusion of power and it's not there I hope I've not upset you too much you know for anything to be but basically means life sucks and then you die okay I'm done you know have you Sookie thank you so your your 10 min I said that is possibly the most perfect music for Georgia's presentation your your 10 million people nobody cares about you but brain bar Budapest cares about you and we want to hear from you so this is your chance to ask some questions so George you you have a unique vision of the world yeah so how do you see it's unique I I just think if you guys haven't heard it's interesting you know you're asking the question of war huh what is it good for well it seems to be good for iPhone innovation and so a degree is war good for innovation yeah you got an iPhone you like it our next question please turn around so I have to turn yes I'm a dime you can be spinning I'm lazily I want an automated sure we I we didn't get that far battle inventor maybe in a tank somewhere there's a nice little automate the chair okay yes thank you for duty and my question is that if burger bar is coming then how do you see the role of multinational organizations in it especially NATO and considering President Donald Trump's stance on it and even your editorial about knee to the absoluteness what is made of it is a military organization you can't have a military organization without a middle jury this is we've studied this very carefully military organization has militaries in the issue here is not whether the United States will leave NATO is whether Europe will join because right now from the American point of view the European national strategy is to condemn the Americans for being reckless and demand they come okay that's fine will come but hooli fighting so we've had a war for 15 years in the Middle East wise unwise our people are dying NATO is nothing to bet so the class you can ask him like right at the bottom there okay yeah I honestly want to George are we already at war so we've seen this sort of Warfare's fault on the battlefield but are we seeing lawfare or perhaps even news fair is the manipulation of our news by other countries but potentially an act of war active war is when I put a bullet in your head this is the act of war and you have to understand the world is filled with violence okay not impressed yes we have an eclectic yeah thank you for your insightful thought if there is a third world war then what will be the tools that it will be fought with weapons with feathers I don't know but they'll be designed to kill people what about what about cyber war George it's a question do you think the war will be fought not on the battlefield but on the web what about cyber war I don't know what's cyber war is question now that I was sending a write I actually realized that I read about your books and whatever usually I just realized I read about your books in Wikipedia and they seem very interesting but what I wanted to ask is where your favorite philosophers Hagel cool why hegel hegel designs history showing its predictability showing its Agony's showing its moral dimension he addresses the reality of human life and it deals with generations rather than differently is the generation to do with the millennial generation what's the best tragedy to survive a global war arm yourself with what that becomes an interesting discussion we should have a discussion of what you want arm yourself with who's your enemy here you've been asked a question right so you in particular were pretty good at escaping war and I don't think that you're seriously I mean you're seriously concerned but you're probably pretty good at avoiding you know bombs falling on your head and people shooting you yes I give him that right yeah my god my difference that a good enough skill to have shouldn't we just you know all learn how to run away from work yes but if you're all running away from war they can find you I have not escaped war in my father I mean my father did my children my daughter was an intelligence officer in Iraq and she fought for several years in Iraq my son is in the Air Force inventing some of these things he does that in the United States being in the military is not an uncommon thing it is not something that poor people do it's a life and my family's life from my father's survival was bound up with it but it was not only and is he the heart of his it it wasn't smart he was lucky so if you want to run away from it you can't outrun a bullet some of you will survive some you won't everybody is not wiped out but in terms of my life it begins in the wake of World War two passes through the struggle against the Soviet Union for my children passes into the Islamist wars Europe has had a wonderful time having in the first half of the 20th century killed 20% of its population it declared well thank god that's over but is it um a final question final question here where do you predict the next major civil war and if your reply is going to be really quick then to zero words majors and is it possible in a major western country I don't see any possibility in a major Western country but in 1850 nobody would have predicted the civil war in the United States Civil War is very hard to predict because they are driven by issues not only of interest but of passion and so on so I mean it is said that there's a chance of another civil war in the Balkans and that it's such a civil war in the Balkans happened it might spread to include other countries in Central Europe I don't know I do know there's a massive civil war going on India's a lot of world and I do know the Europeans are dying from it not many so I'm sure that in a room like this filled with people no one to think of planting of alarm but other than that the point is small civil wars go on everywhere large civil wars stay a long time do you think one of us see war from cooperation to cooperation between corporations not between nation-states corporations are read by the leaders who have two goals to stay alive and make money it is possible to make money without killing people or more important without being killed yourself next question thank you what is the new Global War one day so it's against the country but against terrorism and there are no not always clear battlefields on terrorism yeah I mean there is always a huge problem which is that if you have a sub-national group it's a problem so in 1848 in Europe there was massive uprisings I think you had learned it in school done maybe not so how the 1848 risings were sub national day they were not states the best way to deal with one is to kill them all and this is what happened in 1848 the mass slaughter the United States is trying not to kill everyone in the end they wind up doing it unintentionally just at the United States did you ever see South Park Team America yeah remember how accidentally we blew up the Eiffel Tower we didn't need it we were just there that's the United States so how do you deal with these wars not well not permanently but with the only thing that war has which is violence certainly sighs no seriousness Jewish that was an incredible presentation and please join me in thanking George for his insights [Music] [Applause] you [Music]

Channel: Brain Bar

Views: 1,189,003

Rating: 3.7290101 out of 5

Keywords: ww3, world war 3, wwIII, friedman, george friedman, brain bar, brainbar, brain bar budapest, warfare, future of geopolitics, geopolitics, world war, global war, geopolitical futures, security, future of war, gps, future of the world, nuclear war, world war 2, 21st century, power of china, turkey, angela merkel, trump, merkel vs trump, violence, world peace, nato, military life, uprisings, eu, NATO, Europe, #eu, #georgefriedman, history, books, george, gpf, foreign policy, international affairs

Id: kwnPgscg0vU

Length: 35min 45sec (2145 seconds)

Published: Fri Jul 07 2017

Reddit Comments

[u/filberts]

God damn the bar for incredible is low.

[u/rrohbeck]

TL;DW? I watched the first few minutes and didn't hear anything of substance.

[u/diet_pepsi_bottle]

wars are generally faught over scarce resources. sure, the people in charge bullshit us about moral justifications and shit, but it's about resources.

we live on a world where the infinite growth paradigm we've been following (also bullshit) is now hitting the finite resources wall. (reality)

This means more and more people fighting over fewer and fewer resources.

As a result, we will enter into a period of unending wars for the last remaining resources.

The obvious wars are the wars for oil. The less obvious wars will be the wars for water and land to grow food on.

Pakistan and India will fight a nuclear war over water. With climate change causing their water source, the Himalayan glaciers, to melt and go away, it's guaranteed.

As far as land to grow food on, land that can be farmed will shift further and further north as average global temperatures continue to climb until we can no longer grow grains at scale.

No politician is going to tell there people, sorry, we're out of farmland. You'll just have to starve and die now. Especially in countries with powerful militaries.

As societies crumble from these effects, more authoritarian, fascist leaders and regimes will rise, leading to more conflict. We're seeing this in the United States right now.

Climate change and dwindling resources guarantee it's over.

[u/[deleted]]

Of course he's right, the world's history is an endless series of wars and nothing has ever changed. It's not if, but when.

[u/CubitalFosser]

Right out of the gates with eurocentrism. I'm pretty sure that India, Japan, all of Africa, all of South America, and the rest of the entire world wouldn't consider the 7 years war to be a global war.