Jim Rogers: Worst Recession + Worst Bear Market Of Our Lifetime Approaching Fast

you remember 2008 we had a big problem because of too much debt well Adam look out the window it says 2009 the debt everywhere has skyrocketed the world has never seen anything like this accumulation of increase in debt so the next bear Market has to be the worst in my lifetime welcome to wealthyon I'm Wealthy on Founder Adam Taggart as we approach the end of one of the most tumultuous years for the markets and decades investors minds are turning towards what to expect in 2023 well if you want to know where you're likely headed it's often best to seek the counsel of a veteran expert who's seen and studied it all which is why I'm thrilled to welcome Jim Rogers to the program today he's a legendary International investor Financial commentator and author of several books including the best seller hot Commodities on his previous appearances on this program Jim warned us of an approaching bear Market well we certainly got that in Spades this year we'll ask Jim if he expected to continue in 2023 and whether he thinks a substantial recession may be in the cards Jim thanks so much for coming on the program to help us make sense of this highly uncertain moment in time all the way from China I am actually in China today uh making a speech here but I am yeah I'm in Asia yes yes and I just finished quarantined in China not fun by the way Adam I do have to make one small request listen I make plenty of mistakes so so it's a very nice introduction you might but you should also say and Jim is happy to acknowledge that he makes many mistakes well I appreciate that Jim and that's why folks are such huge fans of yours it's not just your knowledge base but it's just you're a straight shooter we can sit we can talk about my first wife that was a mistake that was a huge mistake oh my gosh so I make many mistakes do we need more than an hour then days days but I will tell you though I did happen to run into a little while back and I am so glad I'm not married to her anymore at the time it was seemed terrible but oh my gosh what a great mistake that was oh I'm glad you can smile about it now I certainly hope you weren't running into her with a car oh no no no quite by chance it doesn't it doesn't matter but it was another accident okay well look um we are talking here this video is going to be airing uh during Thanksgiving week and so just let me be one of the first to wish you a Happy Thanksgiving from America gym while you're there in China um and we're very grateful to have you take the time while you're there to come on this program I got a lot of questions for you as usual um but if you don't mind I'll start with the the general one I like to kick these discussions off with um any answer you have is fine what is your current assessment of the global economy in financial markets well the current assessment is as you know we had a big problem in 2008 or so and then central banks and governments around the world started Printing and spending and borrowing money like never in recorded history so Adam if you give me a few trillion dollars I'll show you a very good time I mean you know the world economy has been flooded with money and spending uh since then America has never gone so deeply in debt so fast as we have done in the last decade more than a decade now 13 years so yes we're all floating on a bit of artificial stimulation it always comes to an end no matter how much you you pump into the economy it seems to be coming to an end inflation is coming back which leads to higher interest rate and some people are starting to say wait a minute this is too much debt this is absurd not everybody I mean the Japanese are still doing it but some people are starting to question how much more we can do so I'm not sure if the world has come to an end yet but I do know it's going to come to an end eventually in the form of another bear Markham and you remember 2008 we had a big problem because of too much debt well Adam look out the window it says 2009 the debt everywhere has skyrocketed the world has never seen anything like this accumulation of increase in debt so the next bear Market has to be the worst in my lifetime I mean it's simple arithmetic the dead has skyrocketed everywhere it's going to lead to a problem someday and maybe today is someday or maybe it's already in process all right well I I want to dig into that with you and and I think that's a good jumping off point into sort of the topic of of monetary policy um as we head there let me just ask you a general question given your best um expertise um both in terms of your career but also you're a student of History um when the debt gets out of control uh for a nation um it really only has two choices right it has to let defaults Clear all the bad debt which is hugely painful in the immediate term um or would it what it usually has to do is destroy the currency um by choosing the inflationary out from the debt pile do you have a a sense or a gut feel that it's going to be one way or the other or is it a coin toss at this point well given that the people in the Federal Reserve are not very smart people you know their academics and bureaucrats they mainly want to keep their job what they will do at the first sign of some some good news and it may already be here they will start talking about and even acting on slowing down it sounds like they're going to slow down for a while because they think things are better and they may be at least on paper but eventually Adam they're going to print money till we run out of trees that's what all they know if there's start to be a lot of bankruptcies or even a few bankruptcies they will get phone calls from people saying You must save us this is a matter of Western Civilization you must save us they will panic and they will print more money I don't think in the history of the world many central banks has had two bad guys it's time for a lot of bankruptcies go down the tubes that's not the way bureaucrats think that's not the way academics think and the end result will be not good for you and me but it might temporarily save their jobs okay and uh I don't disagree with any that I doubt a few of our listeners will as well it is interesting though because we we are now living um in a strange time in that Arc where many of the central banks are you know they are they're tightening they are hiking and tightening um and I I know what you just said it's interesting though but Jerome Powell himself has said hey America we're going to have to take the pain of what it's going to require to bring inflation down here um I'm going to put some words in your mouth and you can correct them any way you like my sense is you're pretty skeptical of of his level of commitment to that that as soon as we start seeing the first real um you know stumblings of the economy under these higher interest rates um I'm gonna guess you're going to think that the central planners are going to do an about face and they're going to go back to their stimulative easing ways and it's just going to be you know more of what we've seen for the past 10 years well let's go back to the last time something like this happened which was the 1970s inflation kept getting worse and worse and the central Bankers made it worse and worse but then the president it was Jimmy Carter at the time said to Paul volcker who he was going to appoint as he did appoint as head of the Federal Reserve Boca was a bureaucrat but volca understood the situation and Carter said to Volker you do whatever you have to do and I will support you now Volker didn't believe him at first but Carter reassured him that he could do anything he had to do and in the end of course Carter lost the election because volca did right what he had to do volca knew what had to happen I mean this will shock some people but interest rates on treasury bills short-term U.S government treasury bills went to over 21 Mike that's not a typo 21 on treasury bills because volcker tightened and tightened and tied he and and Carter said okay Carter said okay well it caused bad times but it killed inflation Carter lost the election but it did Kill inflation I don't think that there's a politician in the land today who would do that or support that and I'm not sure that many bureaucrats I don't see this guy we have now is another Paul Walker and again you know in Japan the head of the central bank has said I will print his word unlimited amounts of money and he's doing it and the Japanese politicians say do it do it do it I mean unlimited it's unbelievable how much money that got Prince so he is not certainly not a Paul volkrum uh I don't think we have a Paul volcker in the U.S and eventually they will cave in all right um okay so uh it sounds like you know if we're going to place our bets we're gonna place our bets on um central banks you know reverting the stimulus and in the longer Arc here you know we're inflating uh we're taking the inflation route the long-term inflation route which obviously spells um bad things for the purchasing power of our currency um we'll get in a bit gym to ways in which people can try to protect themselves from that I'm sure we're going to get in the hard assets and precious metals Etc um but before we get there um interest rates are high and if Pals to be believed in the short term at least going higher from here um what are some of the things that you would expect to kind of break first from you know this higher cost of capital in this this at least short term turning off of the um both monetary and fiscal stimulus spigots but usually the most reactive are the things that react first to things like mortgages because it hits a potential home buyer that day he says oh gosh gosh look how much my monthly payments will go up uh if I have to take a mortgage and a floating rate mortgage a very hard it's hard to get fixed rate mortgages these days so they get hit first but then it seeps through to everybody else a bondholders start losing money and they start feeling some kind of pain and eventually all of us you know eventually it's on the Evening News by the time it's evening news it's usually pretty much the end but you know uh no we all suffer you said interest rates are high well they're higher than they were a year ago but I want to hearken back to 21 treasury bills which have happened and can happen again that is true although it would be so destructive this time because to your earlier Point Jim the debt is so much higher um I I can't pull the the federal debt numbers from the 70s off the top of my head but I I know that back in 2008 going into 2008 it was something like 9 trillion and it's now over 31 trillion so we've had a two and a half times increase in what what is that like 14 years um so I just can't imagine what what 20 percent uh short-term treasury rates would do to this economy well Adam you raise it indirectly raise an interesting point in the late 1970s America as a nation was still a predator Nation we had debts but it was on balance we were still a creditor nation which we remained until the mid 80s so there are many different things now as far as we are concerned we being the United States and our situation is much much worse and these guys in Washington are making it very much worse every day not every month every day they're making it worse well uh so we can get into this a little bit more in just a moment um do you do you take a little bit of heart then in the short term that it seems that the Republicans uh have taken the house and therefore we're going to have a divided Congress and in theory the gridlock will mean fewer you know packages and programs are going to get passed in the next two years well I mean it's pretty simple yes of course if the Congress cannot act that's good news for most of us because you know they they don't usually do good things for anybody except themselves uh no that's certainly positive positive but you know as I said if there's good news on the horizon or starts happening it's a signal to the central banks hey we can ease up we don't have to be so bad for a while and that makes many people in the markets more enthusiastic and more confident and we have big rallies like we've just been having right now um and I do want to get into your Market Outlook in a moment um I I in the intro I mentioned the last time you were on you were predicting that we will eventually experience the worst bear Market of our lifetimes um I want to I want to re-address that with you to see if you still think that's true before we do though um I want to talk more about just sort of your general macro Outlook because uh there's a lot of signs that the economy is is really struggling right now and not just in the U.S globally and um I want to get your thoughts on recession because I have heard in some of your recent interviews that you may believe that we are due for the largest recession of our lifetimes or or your lifetime here so can we start with that what what's your what's your outlook for economic growth going forward is it indeed that that dire well first of all I would remind you that we have periodically had recession since the beginning of time all over the world it was supposed to be the natural part of the economic cycle we just try to really push them off if we can it always has been and I presume it always will be but Janet Yellen said there was a secretary of the president no no we have figured it all out don't worry we have it under control well she's got degrees from a couple of fancy Ivy League schools so if you believe her then when don't worry Washington's sorted all this out now I happen to know she's wrong and I happen to know that we will have recessions again in the world and the next one has to be very bad as I explained 2008 was a nightmare for many of us or many people since then the debt has gone up by astonishing amounts you cited some numbers before pick any numbers you want they are terrifying and is continuing to get worse every day so the next time we have a problem I mean Adam it's just simple audition uh look out the window the dead is skyrocketing everywhere so the next problem has to be very very bad and it'll be the worst in my lifetime and I'm older than you so be the worst in your lifetime too I didn't say it'd be the worst in the world the worst in history or anything like that I just said in my lifetime all right so um we'll talk in a moment about what people may be able to do to sort of prepare for that in advance but um let me ask you this Jim so I've had this discussion with several other experts on the program here which is you know Mark is the business cycle and markets are supposed to follow a a boom bust cycle right it's just it's in it's very much like nature in the seasons right you know you you have prosperous times things get so good that people stretch you get now investment and then you need the the bus cycle to clear that out and prepare things to to start again right so in many ways we we should not fear the down cycle we should embrace it as just a natural part of keeping our economy healthy but man you know as I mentioned earlier we we seem to do everything possible these days to try to avoid one from happening and you just gave some great you know sighting of Janet Yellen as an example of of that and you know the thinking is is the more we push it off it's like building up you know potential energy right the more we push it off when it eventually does happen well then it's far more destructive than it needed to be because we we held it at Bay for so long um so here's where I'm going with this Jim let's say I make you or or the the universe of wealthy on viewers here all vote and they make you Emperor um are there any particular reforms will they make me they make you emperor of America are there any particular reforms that you would love to to see enacted that that you've you know chewed on in in your your Decades of investing to say man if we just did X better we'd be in a much better shape first I would resign okay probably the smartest move yes yes I would resign well I guess I would first abolish the Federal Reserve then I would resign because somebody would shoot me when things really got bad um oh I would I would cut government spending with an act not with an ax for the chainsaw because the situation is dramatic it is historic and I would stop printing money I would let the market decide what kind of interest rates the world need now we've had three central banks in American History Adam as you know the first two disappear this one is probably going to disappear too eventually because they keep making such horrible mistakes so but if I were doing it I would get rid of the Central Bank I'd let the market determine interest rates as it has in the past and the world somehow survived yes we had recessions but we've had recessions since the beginning of time in the Old Testament the Old Testament they talked about seven good years and seven mean years you know you and I are not the first people to know that we have hard times sometimes in in the world and in history been going on for many many decades many centuries all right um I think you'd probably get a standing ovation from a number of of the current viewers here Jim for you know shrinking government abolishing the FED having Market set interest rates and getting out of the money printing business um uh would that these could go from your lips to the ears of our Central Bankers um but as you said earlier I don't think we should hold our breath for that um I want to ask you two more things about recession and then I want to ask you a question that's based upon where you're sitting right now out in Asia um first uh I don't know how closely you look at the U.S housing market and the U.S jobs Market these tend to be late lagging data sets um but with interest rates as high as they are as you mentioned earlier um you know mortgage rates have have almost tripled since you know a little over a year ago um one of the things about housing is that it is it is much more widely owned than stocks are you know ninety percent of all Financial assets are crammed into the wallets of the top ten percent but but housing is owned by a lot more people um how bad do you think we could be due for a housing correction both with a slowing economy and just with the math of mortgage rates moving this much and the reason why I asked that is because um you know potentially that has a much more uh bigger effect on the negative wealth effect just because housing is is owned by so many more people well I just want to go with you you keep talking about high interest rates Adam these interest rates in the United States in 2022 are by historic standards are not high they're higher than they were a year ago but this look back at the history of America the history of any country but since we're Americans these are not high interest rates uh in in our in our in American history uh so they have the scope and the historic president to go much much higher which I suspect they will for the reasons that we've discussed and that will have a dramatic effect on housing we have had a huge amount of Home Building in the last decade or so I don't have the numbers at hand but I know everybody has been building houses some would call that a bubble but even if it's not a bubble it has certainly been a boom and when that comes to an end you know if your house goes down in price you it it doesn't affect you too badly unless you have to sell or something but then when your neighbor's houses start going down and you your relatives houses start going down then you really feel the pressure because you know uh oh if I have to sell or whatever whatever wealth I thought I had I don't have anymore and then people everywhere start talking about it because you know one of the things that many people talk about are property prices house prices and if they start going down it's going to be high on their list of things to talk about much higher than the football game if everybody's house price is going down everybody's going to talk about it and moan and complain which leads to more pessimism right and and tightening of of consumer purse strings which then depresses consumer spending which then makes a recession potentially even worse um I appreciate the reminder Jim about the historic levels of of um interest rates and you're right I should say relatively High interest rates given where they've been you know in recent years I think one thing that though is different is um even at the higher interest rates back in the 70s like you're mentioning the ratio of home prices to income um were were much more sane relative to where they are right now given how distorted home prices have gotten so the only reason why I mention that is because it makes the destructive impact of a rising interest rate even more in this type of environment which you're nodding as we're saying this um all right so the other question is um just on jobs um I assume if you believe that we're going to have the worst recession um in your lifetime um than you expect that the outlook for jobs the jobs Market is probably not very good over the next one to two years is that accurate well again just look at the numbers and and what has happened throughout history yes we've had lots I mean I think unemployment has been the lowest in a long time uh in the U.S when we start having problems it goes from the lowest it usually goes much higher you know things when they get overextended on the downside they get over extended on the upside it's the way the world works that's the way history works so no of course I would expect unemployment to go higher and higher okay and the reason why I've sort of been walking through this string is if I can sort of wrap everything that you've said so far up it's plan for uh bad bad times ahead for um financial markets and thus your investment um plan for your house to go down in value and plan for um insecurity in your job going forward and I'm not trying to Super paint gloom and doom just for the sake of it but we've got real people watching this program and and to have a a venerated you know expert like you deliver a message like this hopefully people you know take some time now to to do a little bit of pre-planning so that if indeed what you expect to happen happens that maybe they're a little bit less exposed to it because they took some preventative measures now well Adam forget who I anything forget it anyway just read some history I'm not trying to scare people I'm just telling you how the world has always worked this is the way the world has always worked Justice from the Old Testament they had seven good years and seven bad years I mean this has been going on a long long long time so don't listen to me just read some history do your own research and then you will get knowledgeable and if you get knowledgeable you will get worried because you will see this has happened many times before and it's going to happen again as it always has and those who are prepared and knowledgeable will do well and survive some people came out of the 30s very rich not me I didn't come out of the 30s very rich but some people did so if you're prepared you'll do fine all right well that's a great message and I do when we wrap things up I want to end on your advice for for that for doing fine but but here's the question I wanted to ask based upon where you are now which is out in Asia um this has been a very interesting year um geopolitically right we've had a lot of um uh trade relations uh get completely shuffled around here um the war in Ukraine has really um you know changed the political map to a certain extent geopolitical map from an alliances standpoint um one of the things that it did and I love your comments on this is when when the the U.S sort of weaponized uh the the its Financial system against Russia and you know basically seized Russian assets and and orchestrated the the West's boycott of Russia um my understanding is that sent a signal to a lot of other geopolitical players that oh my goodness I I might not be on the US's bad side today but I might be at some point and therefore there are some things I want to do today or start or now to to start making sure that if that ever happens I'm not as vulnerable to it as I am today so you know some countries are are de-dollarizing certain amounts of their trade uh there's talk of an Eastern trading block really congealing over this what are you seeing from your Vantage Point in Asia well first of all the world has had many Reserve currencies International mediums of Exchange in history none of them have survived none of them have lasted more than 100 150 years or so I'm delighted that the US dollar has been on top for many decades but history would indicate that it's going to come to an end and that maybe it's time I mean we are certainly we've been on top a long time for economic reasons we are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world so there are financial reasons for people to look for something else there are also political reasons that you aptly point out you know all of a sudden I mean if Washington gets angry at you too bad they cut you off are they are they and or they confiscate your assets they just take your assets they say okay we get ours now so as you point out many people including our friends are starting to say wait wait a minute guys wait a minute this is not the way it's supposed to work if I have an international medium of exchange I should be able to use it for anything I want anywhere in the world well it's sinking in to many people that there are many reasons to start looking for a competitor and many major players in the world are looking for a competitor to something to compete with the U.S dollar I don't like this atom but I can see it happening and and I we all have to adjust to it whether we like it or not I don't know normally I would think it would be the Chinese currency because for many reasons but the Chinese currency is a blocked currency I mean you I can go online and buy the Euro if I want or the US dollar I cannot buy and sell the Chinese currency easily so that's not a player at the moment anyway maybe that will change so I don't know what it's going to be if you know please don't announce it on this program please send me a private email so that I can buy some too I am looking for the new competitor to the US dollar but it's it's happening it's happening before our eyes if you bother to look and it's going to be I remember when the pound sterling lost its status as the result you know in 1920s Britain was the richest most powerful country in the world he was number one there was no number two there was no rival in the 20s 50 years later 1976 to be precise Britain was bankrupt literally the IMF had to bail out Great Britain because they were bankrupt they went from no competitor to Total bankruptcy so it has happened it can happen and it will happen to everybody eventually in the big scheme of history and I don't as I say I don't know but you know by 1776 the dollar was Rising as strongly it had had a great play after the second world war but unfortunately that play has been going on for a long time and I say I don't know what it's going to be I look for it every day uh and if you do know send me an email okay if I know you are definitely in my private email chat before we uh we open it up to the greater World here on Wealthy on um by the way I do want to just say because I live through that Holy when the English lost that status and when they went bankrupt and it was a nightmare for the English most many English people immigrant they left their country because of what was happening I mean some people made I mean the Beatles didn't leave the Beatles didn't leave England in the 60s and they did extremely well but many many other people left England in those days because it was such a nightmare um and you know history you know they say it Rhymes right it doesn't always exactly repeat itself but there's an awful lot of commonality as as you are very good to point out here um I'm asking you to speculate here but if and when it is the US Dollars time to lose its privilege as the world Reserve currency do you expect that to be more of an event or a process right is it something that happens over years or decades um or is it something that kind of just one morning you wake up and there's a new regime well it's usually a process more and more people get affected as more and more measures get taken by the politicians to save you they always say hurt you always but it's usually a process now eventually it's somewhat like I I can remember in 1976 when Britain went bankrupt it was on the Evening News everywhere when that happened but that process had been in trained for several years several decades all right so is it sort of like the old Hemingway quote um how do you go broke gradually and then all at once it was sort of integrating and then bang it became a crisis that's exactly the way it happens to Nations to currencies yes all right and I'm asking you to speculate here again so no one's going to hold you to this but this time around would you expect the U.S dollar to be supplanted by uh another competing currency or do you think we might fracture into kind of a multi-currency system for at least some period of time things are going now your latter scenario is more likely I mean there is the European scenario there is the Asian scenario it is the Western Hemisphere there are varieties of spheres of influence that could be because I don't see you know in the in the 60s the 50s and 60s there was the US dollar because of what happened in the second world war and after so it was very clear who was riding up to replace the the pound I don't see that happening now so I would suspect it's going to be spheres of influence or spheres of currencies if you want to look at it that way and eventually one of them will come out on top either after a war after its depression or something some kind of historic event would take place which will somebody will then suddenly rise to the top over the various regions but again I don't know I don't know who or what or when okay and uh I I I I don't want to you know reveal any of your your membership and you know private closed-door Illuminati we rule the world groups but um I have had a couple of speakers on this program um I'll mention them by name really quickly one is Simon hunt I'll link to my interview with him here when is Aleister McLeod I'll link to my interview with him again here um where they have talked about um apparently sort of an Asian block or at least a block of countries led by Asia um that is apparently looking to put together a um a commodities-backed currency um potentially priced in Gold grams I'm just curious is this anything that you hear about living out there in Asia or is uh I read the same things you do you don't have to have closed doors you know bars or something we all know the problems the political and economic problems of the US dollar it's not a secret everybody knows it and everybody knows that people are looking it's being accelerated I mean the Ukraine war has accelerated this surge because of what the U.S did you know they just seized assets they blocked assets of innocent people they just said we we suspect something's up and They seized their assets or blocked their assets so many people this movement is being accelerated by Washington's facts of our actions I hate to say so yes it just makes and many people know that gold has been around for centuries um by the way silver has been much more often used as the as the backing for currencies throughout history I mean Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver he wasn't sold for 30 pieces of gold but thousands of years before that you had the Egyptians using it correct we had the what I said but thousands of years before that you had the Egyptians using it correct oh yeah well okay well actually the U.S currency when the U.S when the America was founded as a nation the US dollar was first backed by silver it was a Silverback currency in 1792 when we set up the monetary system Etc so the silver has been around for and more common China in the 1930s was a silver-based economy many places have been so but it doesn't matter whether it's silver or gold or seashells you know people come up with something to back the currency it makes sense because people as I've explained before what are we going to do and people they look around they don't see anything else so they say why don't we back a currency with something real everybody knows what gold is silver wheat whatever it happens to be so it is a very likely scenario that people will try for a while especially if we have more and more problems and crises and eventually a gold back currency has problems too that's why they always get changed and did the politician is too hard for the politicians they say oh my gosh this is too hard so they change the rules they're always changing the rules so then they will get rid of the gold standard again or the silver standard or whatever right and that's because they impose discipline which many politicians don't like because they just want to be able to be of course they don't like discipline what's wrong with you are you serious you know these guys can't get a real job that's why they work for the government they don't want to be disciplined there was a study not so long ago that showed that the American politicians when they were kids they excelled at playground they were the best kids during recess at playground so that's why they become successful politicians they don't know what they're doing and they want the easy way so yes the easy way at one point seemingly may be gold or silver back currencies but eventually that causes discipline and that's they changed the rules again all right so this is the time in our conversations Jim when when you're in your home office where you usually pull out a a gold and a sober coin to show folks on the screen here uh oh you're gonna do it yes yes yes there we go um all right well look um you are in Asia and and actually there is a gold-plated statue behind you there um and I I just want to ask you to just to opine for a moment here because most of the viewers of this channel are westerners we speak English they live in most of the English-speaking countries um but you spend your time in Asia these days if you could just talk about the cultural appreciation of precious metals there and just differentiate it um versus the average Westerner well well yeah again it's it's historic as you pointed out the Egyptians Once Upon a Time as I pointed out the Americas Once Upon a Time right etc etc so yes there for historic reasons mainly I mean India is a gigantic consumer of gold and silver for many reasons for many decades the Asia the Chinese are becoming more and more gold oriented and more and more silver oriented uh but this again it's historic you go through periods when you get suspicious about your government are suspicious about your currency they know I mean I'm an old peasant Adam and all of us old peasants know that when things get bad we want some gold under the closet under the bed we want some silver in the closet we know because well all of us old peasants have been around long enough to know what goes wrong so and right now in Asia they see what's happening for whatever reason more vividly than we seem to in the west and they are not just Asia but many people are buying more and more gold and silver and putting it under the bed putting it in the closet including me and that's the main reason why I asked this question there's a a cartoon I'm going to see if I can find it here and put it up on the screen um but it shows basically um I think it's the US versus China but it really could be the US versus Asia where um China's throwing big bundles of dollars at the U.S across a net and the U.S is throwing gold bars back to China and you can see them stacking up in each you know country's respective side of the net and you're thinking wait a minute Chinese are actually getting a big pile of gold in the US is just ending up with a bunch of paper I think the Chinese are getting a better deal out of this but but there's a massive west to east flow of precious metals going on right now isn't there well I mean the numbers are very clear for anybody who wants to look them up and read yes it's happening just anecdotally you know when I first came to char even decades ago you couldn't it was hard to buy gold in China now there are many gold shops many banks you can go in and they will sell you gold coins gold silver coins I mean it's very easy now because the demand is obviously there these shops wouldn't crop up these Banks wouldn't pop up unless there was demand so yes I mean you and I read the same statistic these are numbers are easily available the Indians are buying I mean a lot of Asians I mean yes westerners too but especially Asians who have lived through periods of bad times before right they they have those bad times much more in the Forefront of their natural national memory where in the U.S we've we're so many generations removed from the really hard times now that we just have forgotten a lot of that correct you're nodding as I'm saying this one question Jim is the you know the the largest asset in the world as I understand it or at least it was until recently was the Chinese real estate market and the Chinese have been big investors in real estate a lot of trouble in its real estate market this year I'm curious is that uncertainty in their real estate market um driving any of these gold purchases where they're sort of shifting from one asset to another well I I you'd have to ask that the people who are doing it I don't know but I would just suspect historically yes you know as well as I do there were people losing a lot of money and a gigantic asset like real estate they look for something to save themselves that increases their level of anxiety and gold and silver have been around for centuries yes it's it's very clear there has been a bubble in Chinese property and by the way Beijing for a long time has talked about it and tried to do something about it unsuccessfully now whether it's the market or Beijing or who something is happening and that bubble is popping and it's gonna when all real estate bubbles pop as you know it goes on a long time and a lot of people suffer badly yes yeah and a lot of Chinese sadly will suffer if it continues there just because it was such a massively owned asset class for them right said a billion 400 million Chinese that's not a typo one billion would it be 400 million Chinese it's a huge country it's the size of the Continental 48 states so it's huge yes and many of them grew up without property after you know Beijing started changing its view towards capitalism huge numbers of people went into property and real estate wow and now they're going to be consequences yeah um what sorry I just got another Chinese consequence question I'm trying to limit my questions here but you keep raising so many great threads um uh back to the economy for a moment here um global economy has been slowing um the last time the global economy like really slowed down not including the pandemic um but was 2008 and China kind of kind of saved the the global economy because it wasn't highly indebted at that point and it started allowing itself to take on a lot more debt so it powered a lot of demand through the recovery from the global financial crisis um it it it I don't think it can do that play that role again correct me if you think differently but what I want to ask you about is here in the immediate term um we've had this short-term rally in the mar this recent rally in the markets part of that has been sparked by some recent announcements coming out of China where people are thinking okay China's about to come out of lockdown and we're going to get a surge in demand here as a result of that given your vantage point where you are do you think that that's a correct assumption well I hope so I've been in quarantine for a long time here in China but I do sense and see that they're opening up a bit yes yes yes and of course that will help China has been suffering in the last year or so from the virus and lockdown and the real estate bubble popping uh of course which will badly affect anybody and it is having an effect in China and yes if they open up but still when you go from Lockdown total locked down to even total openness it takes a while people don't suddenly find themselves rich and spending a lot of money especially if there's a real estate bubble popping so no China is not going to disappear we in America became the most successful country in the 20th century but my gosh Adam we had huge problems along the way Civil War many depressions massacres in the streets you could buy and sell Congress you can still buy and sell congressmen but they were cheap in those days you know about five or six but the price of one now uh no China will certainly continue to have problems they will survive I I'm not giving up on China is not going to disappear in 2008 they had a lot of money saved up the world started collapsing so they started spending but when it started raining the Chinese started spending the money but now China even has a whole lot of debt I don't see who can save us now North Korea doesn't have any debt but they're not big enough to save the world like China was in 2008 when they had staggering amounts of Reserves there's nobody that I can see yeah and even the Federal Reserve not even the Central Bank in America all right so we're short on saviors here um so let's let's um I'm going to start to try to land the plane here Jim because you've been so uh gracious and generous with your time here um I'm going to try to connect a couple things you said and correct it anyway you like um uh we are global economy is slowing we are likely on a trajectory to the worst recession of your lifetime um that said there there are cross currents that will be going on here probably the whole time but but cross currents in other words while things are slowing China may come to the rescue in the near term by opening back up and goosing things a little bit but overall the trajectory is going to be down and at some point we're going to tip into a really bad Global recession um likely to be accompanied by a bad bear Market as you've been saying maybe the worst bear Market uh of your lifetime and therefore our lifetimes as well um the head of the arc right or or is there anything else you'd put in there well I just want to add that our interview with Jim will continue over in part two which will be released on this channel tomorrow as soon as we're finished editing it to be notified when it comes out subscribe to this channel if you haven't already by clicking on the Subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next to it and be sure to hit the like button too while you're down there and remember we're continuing our new practice of publishing my top takeaways from these weekly interviews to get mine from this interview with Jim for free just go to wealthyon.com Adams notes and finally if the challenging macro Outlook Jim's detailed in this interview has you feeling a little vulnerable about the prospects for your wealth then consider scheduling a free no strings attached portfolio review by a financial advisor who can help manage your wealth keeping in mind the trends and risks that Jim's mentioned here just go to wealthion.com and we'll help set one up for you okay I'll see you next in part two of our interview with Jim Rogers

Channel: Wealthion

Views: 501,073

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Id: 9kJ-nT_GNQ0

Length: 50min 42sec (3042 seconds)

Published: Thu Nov 24 2022