Is Senegal on the verge of chaos?

violent protests in Senegal leave 16 dead calls for calm by the U.N and the African Union fall on deaf ears with violence escalating over the weekend with an opposition leader sentenced to prison rumors of the president running for an illegal third term and elections in nine months could this be just the beginning of the chaos I'm Andrea Sankey and today's newsmaker is Senegal thank you [Music] Senegal is facing one of its deadliest bouts of unrest in decades 16 people have died 500 have been arrested after three days of clashes the Catalyst for the protests was the sentencing of opposition leader Osman sonko to two years in prison sonko who came third in Senegal's 2019 presidential election is popular with the country's youth now he's been convicted of corrupting that youth but acquitted of rape his supporters maintain his legal troubles are part of a government effort to derail his candidacy in next February's presidential election adding to the political tension is the belief that President Maki Saul plans to stay in office for an unconstitutional third term he's neither confirmed nor denied this despite opposition calls to State publicly that he will not run again in a move to quell protests Senegal's government's cut access to mobile internet services in certain areas over the weekend a Rights group say they're violating freedom of speech and its affecting apps like Facebook Instagram WhatsApp and YouTube the government says hateful and subversive messages have been posted online and protests are now harming the economy the attacks have targeted essential State infrastructure such as water and electricity production plants public transport as well as the businesses and Banks the aim of these attacks is to disrupt the country's economic activity and create a climate of Terror among our citizens activity economic and since Thursday most shops have closed and the majority of people in Dakar have remained at home afraid of the situation outside with protesters Gathering regularly in certain neighborhoods the government has Enlisted the Army to back up the many Riot police still stationed around the city the government says they're maintaining stability protesters say they are defending democracy when the verdict came down all the Senegalese people were ashamed because you can't prosecute someone for rape for two years and then fall back on a case of Corruption of miners the Senegalese people are not fools we know that the state wants to prevent an opponent from standing in the presidential elections but it's no use usmani sonko is going to take part in the elections since the beginning of this story we have lost a great deal the country's economy has taken a big hit the trial has lasted two years and every time there is a hearing all the Traders are forced to close their shops for two or three days the loss is incalculable at a time when we have expenses to make it split our hearts which is why why we demonstrated tension was also very high because the students ransacked almost all the places in the University that are important The Faculty all law was also affected because they said that it had no reason to exist since the judges have been corrupted even though it is here that we learn all the laws and the rules of Justice if these loaves are not applied the students have decided that this faculty has no reason to exists I asked the president of the Republic of Senegal make us all to leave Usman alone I come from beaul in the north of Senegal and I'm here in singen court to work it is difficult to work and earn a living if not president Mackie Saul can find us a bus and go home my candidate in the presidential elections of 2024 is no one but Usman well joining me now to debate the state of Senegal are from London David Otto he is the director of the Geneva Center for Africa security and strategic studies also from London is Paul Melly an Africa program Consulting fellow at Chatham House and in Dakar is Usman Ali Diallo a researcher at Amnesty International thanks all so much for joining us David I'll start with you why won't makisol simply just say that he will not seek a third term wouldn't that have put a lot of this to rest from the very beginning and I think that is one of the biggest challenges that we are facing in Senegal because you know the president does not want to confirm uh neither does he want to deny that you know he will be running for the third term and you know this is causing unnecessary um stress you know for a country that you know has been experiencing um economic issue in the backdrop of covid-19 um the backdrop of the uh the ongoing war in Ukraine so it's it's a very challenging situation for Senegal which you know has been a big one of democracy but not just Senegal are we talking about an ecowas region that has seen uh military coup d'etats at the back of you know presidents that you know have decided to run for more than the attempt you know we've seen that when people have gone to the streets to protest um so this is not good news in addition to the accusation by the opposition that um you know he's trying to stifle the representation of um his main opposition leader Osman sacho in the upcoming 2023 elections uh sorry 2024 election so I think you know it's not good for a country in a goal that has seen some stability in democracy Paul let me get your take on that I mean it is it seems to be this accumulation of first makisal not really saying that he will not run illegally unconstitutionally I should say for a third term then you have the prosecution of a leading opposition figure legitimate or not we'll discuss that in a minute if we can um and then to hear Marquis all kind of have the nerve to say that uh he wasn't asked politely enough if I understood correctly whether he will run for a third term it makes one feel that it really didn't have to escalate to this point I think that's the feeling of a lot of senegalese because when makisal was first running for the presidency back in 2012 2011 2012. he really ran on two issues one was um cost of living economic issues but the other was restoring the values of the Republic because uh abdullahiwad the person who was president at the time he also pushed bent the Constitutional rules if you like to try and seek a third mandate and makisal made a very big point of saying that that was wrong and he would only do two terms so it's not just about the fact that the Constitutional rules appear to block a third term although not every Senegalese uh constitutional lawyer seems to buy that case but it's that Mackie very specifically made that personal promise that's what gives it all this such sort of weight and significance and then on top of that as David Otto pointed out you know there are economic challenges people had a very tough time during the covid lockdown um there is a real problem of uh creating jobs for young people despite an overall successful economy there are a lot of Social and economic pressures but the real crunch thing is that Mackie made this promise and they've been also this series of Trials which have seen other potential presidential contenders um ruled out and that's why although the latest trial the one concerning Usman salko um as as in any case concern or as in many cases concerning uh allegations of rape or sexual assault it's one person's word against another um from many many Senegalese the justice system has lost credibility and is under political manipulation so people just don't trust the process let me turn to Osman because I'd like to get your thoughts on on what you just heard and also if you could tell us what is happening on the ground in Dakar Where You Are and if you can do focus on this complaint by many that the Judiciary is not independent in Senegal yes I think the complaint about the Judiciary being under the thumb of the government has been Central uh to the uh uh discussion uh made by the opposition but also by the anger that has been felt in Dakar during the during the protest that have started since Thursday we cannot understand why people are so adamant on fighting against this uh conviction which is actually for corrupting Youth and not for the initial charges of rape and death threats if you do not consider how the Judiciary has a excluded uh political adversaries of magical since 2016. uh yeah I think Dr Paul Meri talked earlier about the case of Karim what who was convicted for embezzlement and ruled out of the 2019 presidential elections and the same thing has happened also with the alifa the former mayor of Daga who was convicted for graft and concussion and excluded from the 2019 political protest uh presidential elections so uh the fact that many of the opposition Civil Society any new have taken over the streets since Thursday is that they are in their mind there is uh this uh manipulation of the Judiciary which has lost many of its creditability over the last uh two years because many political actors have been preemptively arrested for uh uh calling for Insurrection when they have criticized uh the ruling of makisal also offenses of uh insulting the head of states have been used to detain proposition leaders and more importantly during the march 2021 protests that happened in Senegal at least 14 people have been killed and nobody have been tried uh for this uh for this for these cases of active use of thoughts just giving a summary of what has happened since Thursday at Amnesty International we have accounted for at least 23 people being killed since Thursday between Becca and zigashar uh most of them when uh security falsifier live ammunition at them and we are very fearful that this uh death toll might increase because uh many have been severally wounded and there have been denials of uh medication and medical help by security Force okay let me come back to David because as per what Osman was saying uh when we talk about the prosecution of these other political actors I mean are these I should say these political actors in some cases are not completely innocent so is it possible to kind of blur the lines uh with the Judiciary to make it look like justice is actually being served when there is a political angle to it but then again I remember seeing Senegalese people celebrate when Karim wad in particular was actually prosecuted successfully so how difficult is it to tell if these opposition people are Innocents that are being unfairly prosecuted or if there actually is wrong on both sides the devil is always um it is more or less about trust that people have in the Judiciary if you believe that a certain Judiciary is um is impartial um if they believe that the Judiciary cannot be trusted you know it has no Independence um you know the government you know has a say as to how a particular verdict could go um then irrespective of whether someone is infant or guilty um you know the population will still dim it I mean this is all about atmospherics it's all about uh you know you know kind of you know the populations um so right now the Senegalese who are protesting do not believe that the Judiciary you know can be independent they believe that you know it could be manipulated you know by the executive and therefore um whatever comes out of it um even when you know it is possible that an opposition leader would be given to you the people will simply not believe it um so it's it's all about the Antiques you know on how the government has demonstrated uh its credibility remember this is not the first time that you know Usman Sanko has either been arrested or or charged you know with with an offense so a lot of the protesters you know see this as just it means life on the position of Usman coach from running in the upcoming election right uh Paul let me give you a text on Dr Otto's point I think the trust in the Judiciary is Central to uh understand why people have been protesting because as you rated the point some of these opposition leaders that were convicted may have been guilty but there have been many cases of uh politicians and actress close to the ruling power or have been uh charted by let's say the code which is an audit a National Bureau of audit of Senegal of embezzlement and draft and they have never been prosecuted for this for this possible charges uh recently there have been a report about the management of the covid-19 fund which discovered that there have been widespread squid spread graft by the government Executives on how they handled that fund but there have been no judicial investigation that has been opened and so and so this distrust in the Judiciary and the fact that it is seen as partial is Central to the uh to the willingness to go in and take the streets okay you know Paul when it comes to Osman sanco staying with us I mean he was acquitted of the worst charges which were which were very bad but still I mean going to a massage parlor in the middle of the night you know it doesn't really bode well for someone who wants to be president so some in Senegal think that says enough that he shouldn't necessarily be fought for especially the way some of his supporters are taking to the streets so willing to go to battle for him but still what was actually legal for them to prosecute well the that's where there's a lot of mystery around the handling of the case because as as um as was already mentioned the two strong charges the ones that had been talked about for the last two years during the investigation and the build up to the trial were rape and the use of making lethal threats against the uh the woman working in the massage parlor who had made the rape allegations so those were obviously very grave charges and the court um rejected those they decided that Ahsoka was innocent of those but only really at the very last minute did the prosecution bring up this question of corrupting the morals of the of the woman concerned because she was aged under she was age 20 at the time rather than 21. and then when the judge gave his final decision and sentence he didn't even um go for their heaviest sentence to the prosecution had demanded a five-year sentence he went for a two-year prison sentence and so that sends the message that this is that the court did not do this as a very serious offense but the significance of the two years is it's just long enough to keep him out of the next presidential election exactly exactly and that is it's really that which has stirred people's reinforcement people's belief that this is this is a political trial because those questions will remain out there for for some time but I want to move on to something else but Paul you alluded to I mean opposition supporters may be frustrated with what's happened to Osman sonko and they blame the government but as you said their frustration goes beyond that these are young people many of whom are struggling with unemployment and poverty and they're blaming the government for their marginalization are we seeing the culmination of what was uh sort of ticking time bomb yes I think you know it's very essential to understand that um you know protest you know I build up you know when people go on the streets uh for one particular reason um usually that's not the only reason why they're there um their economic uh situation uh the um the social vision of the country again as I mentioned you know um you know Senegalese are looking for a stable governance they are looking to have a governance you know which can provide people with very basic necessities and you know what they see um someone like Usman Sanko as a you know potential uh you know leader that would provide them you know certainly right so at this point in time what we're seeing is is frustration being exhibited by this protest it's not it's in support of the uh the conviction of all the um the failure to convict him of uh some of this because people are concerned about what is in for them you know as Citizens okay Paul sorry go ahead well uh but I think I think it's it's not absolutely certain that if if for example had Mackie sales said I'm not going to do a third term and there was no question of um political manipulation of the Judiciary if if people really trusted the case that was being brought against tonko I'm not sure if there would have been quite the same level of anger but the other thing is I don't think it's driven purely by I'm not sure how much the social factors are really bringing this to the boiling point of course you can look across West Africa and you can see country after country where you have a huge youth population governments are struggling to find ways of creating jobs particularly for young people in the cities but um I think it's this Coincidence of three or four different things at one time people people could have accepted the the steady progress and the government has made some progress on the economic front in terms of Youth Employment and so on it has actually been relatively effective compared to some other countries in terms of development policy people could have lived with that if they felt that the political process was credible and the present was honoring his promises and soccer I suppose the other thing is that sonko is a bit different from the traditional political class okay standard party politician although he now leads a party he's a former civil servant who left the government service in a because he was making allegations about corruption and he has this sort of Outsider appeal the traditional politicians don't Osman I want to get your opinion on on that as well whether or not it's the social marginalization playing a major role in the frustration we're seeing now among these protesters because there's also been some talk that you know that the oil Revenue that is supposed to come in because of the recent oil Discovery is that their people are frustrated thinking that it won't be fairly distributed among the population that the government corruption will set in and that money will be squandered yes I think that is the right point there are there have been several elements at play uh regarding the protest there is this element of social marginalization uh especially with the youth uh that is in the informal sector and that has been a kind of neglected by the different governments also uh although there has been economic growth in Senegal over the last years this economic growth has not been shared or helped by the people of Senegal especially uh given the rise of youth unemployment over the last few years we have we have several people that have graduated from universities uh that have a master's degree but that cannot have a work that fits with their qualification so many of them have to uh be underemployed uh especially in the informal sector and try to live by expecting uh something uh uh new uh to support them and this element is Central to understand uh the appeal of Usman because he's one of the few politicians that has stopped into those anxieties in Senegal and this anger about the uh the the growing drift between the ruling class and the middle class in Senegal in which many people do not feel themselves to be uh to be to be included in the growth so they they see uh there there is this expression we haven't seen this growth and we haven't eaten a part of this world and just to jump on the uh last element about the oil revenues uh there have been uh reports and also concerns about uh the uh the uh the management of the oil contracts that have and especially the gas contract next to the Border uh with Mauritania which has been uh discovered in 2015 and 2016 and how many of the governments uh Executives uh president Saul's brother for example uh has been a key intermediary in uh selling uh part of the rights of an initial uh contract to BP oil for the Expo exploration and exploitation of gas in uh along the border with Mauritania and in this context also I think one element that has frustrated many so negative people uh is the one that you initially talked about about presidential asking citizens to ask him nicely if he's going to represent himself in February 2024 it is hard to know for people that are not based in Senegal but there is a lot of Pride about the Democratic situation in Senegal about the historical path and to see that those things that have been thought of and won by the 10 against people over the decades are being jeopardized by the Ambitions of one man who were fighting against the third term of president abdullahiwad in 2011 and 2012 is very frustrating especially when he said that he is only eligible for two terms uh just as late as 2019. okay Usman that will have to be the final word uh we are completely out of time for this edition of the newsmakers has so much more to talk about and I'm sure we'll be speaking to all of you again in the near future on this very topic as so much more uh remains to be resolved so I'd like to thank all three of my panelists so much for being with us on this edition of the newsmakers our viewers of course for tuning in as well remember you can follow us on Twitter and do be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel I'm Andrea Sankey we'll see you next time thank you [Music]

Channel: The Newsmakers

Views: 35,796

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Id: z60VUBnTdd0

Length: 25min 10sec (1510 seconds)

Published: Mon Jun 05 2023