Indian Politics To Revolve around BJP For Next 20-30 Years Predicts Prashant Kishor | Rajdeep

I cannot say where here to stay but it's very clear it's not only North and South East I always say that east and south roughly about 22 seats it's starting from Bihar don't count Bihar in north in Bihar bjp's vote share is never crossed 25% last time they have won only 17 MPS so if you take Bihar Bengal urisa Telangana Andra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala this 220 seats BJP gets only about 40 45 seats despite their success in Bihar despite their success in Bengal despite they're doing better in orisha but what is happening because they are completely sweeping north and west these 200 seats or 180 seats which are anti BJP uh uh member parliaments they are of no use and hence if Congress plus these three four key anti-bjp uh formations if they are able to win even 100 seat in West and North the game will change overnight because then these 200 MPS who anywh are winning as non BJP MPS they come into play but you would agree that at the moment it looks extremely unlikely that the opposition can win these 100 seats in West and North it's very difficult very difficult it's very difficult impossible and more I wouldn't say impossible but more worrying sign is that BJP knows this data as much as you and I know probably they know more than us and hence you see the bjp's effort and their organizational focus is completely on east and south look at the number of trips Mr has done to Tamil Nadu and caral compared to say madha Pradesh or Rajasthan in outside election time all his visits are to Tamil Nadu to caral look at the effort Amit Shah puts in building Telangana and uh Bengal people are not paying attention in telengana BJP got 14% vote that's a very good launching pad for a party like BJP to take on telengana similarly in Tamil Nadu I see BJP getting into double digit votes at this time make no mistake they will anything between 7 to 12 15% vote is possible for BJP in in Tamil Nadu in kol they are already there in around 10% vote so while BJP is investing in their weak areas opposition is not able to hold either their strong areas or uh get into the new uh areas where they need to work on so I don't see any party whether it's SP or uh say n CP or rjd or congress which is the biggest party in the north and west investing in rebuilding re-energizing taking a new approach to rebuild their party in these states you know you you given us a nice broad National picture but I I for a moment want to look at your home state since that's the one you've been traveling through extensively over the last 15 months your your Jan surj experience as you travel do you see a mood for change among voters uh do you believe that voters in a state like Bihar also also want change want a better life uh because one of the other distinctions between India is the India which is growing at a much faster rate mainly Peninsula India and an India which is gr at extremely slow rates still has high rates of joblessness are these real issues uh before the people that lead them to believe they want political change Raj it's a common sense who doesn't want a better life it's a question of what defines better life for you these Estates like the aspirations have been crushed so low that getting 5 kg free rasan is fulfilling of the aspiration getting uh uh 500 rupes pension is an fulfilling of an aspiration maybe in Karnataka you have to pay 2,500 but to say that fundamentally people in biar doesn't want good life is I think is a very derogatory statement to make it whether it's for Bihar or up or urisa you have to be in their shes to understand what what their life is how difficult the life is you are talking about better education GDP growth this that the they know people are not getting to eat people are not they don't have house you know in biar for example you know the oldest pension is 400 rupees just imagine sitting in Delhi in 400 rupees the poor woman or a man has to live whole month his R his eating his household everything is covered in that 400 rupes no which is precisely what I want to know if it remains an area of Darkness why is it in the last 30 years it's been dominated only by two figures either by Lalu Prasad nsh Kumar in a way nitish Kumar has shown up the entire system he can go with rjd one day BJP one day yeah no it's because the two mainstream large parties who should have taken the responsibility of helping the states like Bihar namely the Congress and BJP both in the interest of getting more MPS in uh Delhi they have sacrificed the interest of people of Bihar it's like what we call the resource crust in Africa the more mines more minerals you have more is the loot similarly what has happened to up and Bihar these states have been seen by national parties or national formations as the States from where you get the maximum MP so their predominant focus is how to get the maximum MPS from Bihar or up so what happened when Congress was in power as sensible Economist as executive like prime minister he was even he could not think out of box to do something for Bihar because all they were interested in that with the help of luu Yad get some 20 25 MPS to run the government in Delhi in return if Lalu wanted to run the government he wanted to run the way he wanted to run in Bihar they overlooked they closed the eyes the same thing unfortunately BJP is doing V nitish Kumar they are quite aware that nitish Kumar is doing nothing they are quite aware that Bihar is the most poorest and the deprived State even today after 15 years of coalition government of BJP and nitish Kumar make no mistake out of 18 years of nitish Kumar as a CM 15 years he has been CM with BJP but BJP is completely willing to overlook it because they don't want to take the risk of not getting that 3035 MP seats so they are sacrificing the interest of people of Bihar the children of Bihar because they want 30 seats from but do you believe that cast based parties or Regional parties that are run around a family uh or around a individual like a nitish Kumar are they reaching exhaustion point do you believe a stage will come where in the next 10 years people will look for Alternatives or our regional parties here to stay you've told us Congress you believe is on the deine but our regional part is here to stay yeah so I would make a sweeping comment that there is like a curtain wall that you know from today onwards there will be no original party no cast based party it's a cycle it goes it what goes up will come down if BJP comes down whoever is a strong force there whether is a regional party or congress they will gain if kcr is a was a is a regional party he declined Congress was there they benefited so whoever is there on the ground whether you are a national party or a regional party whether you are a cast based party or a religion based party if you are there you are fighting people see yourself around you a chance because the other person who is ruling if he falls you are there to benefit from it but is cast still very very dominant not just I'm not just looking at be but across the country prime minister also projects himself interestingly as an OBC face I mean this OBC politics nitish Kumar tried to play cast sensus it didn't really work Rahul Gandhi has echoed cast census not worked and on the other hand the Prime Minister plays the OBC card but I'm I'm glad you're saying at least because for months you guys have been telling this cast census is going to be the second mle and this and that and I've been telling it on ground there is no resonance to it no resonance at all no resonance why because you know in politics you can play one thing only once in lifetime you can't do it again and again casting once mundle done dusted people who benefited people who suffered has done now you cannot redo it Nies Kumar tried doing it very quickly he realized that it's not resulting into any electoral gain so that's why he has gone back to BJP play this see cast is an important factor no doubt about if you do politics in India you must understand this reality that cast is one of the major factors but cast is not the only Factor make no mistake cast is not the only Factor look at the states where we talk about the cast politics most which is up biar today in up and Bihar BJP is getting the maximum vote both States in these states you go and talk to anyone they say no we are not V voting for BJP we are voting for Mr Modi how many people of Mr modi's cast live in up and Bihar so if we are saying that everyone in Bihar and up are voting only basis cast then who is voting for Mr Modi in up and Bihar they are definitely not voting on the basis of cast so there is cast angle there is bhara SL Hindu Factor Hindu Muslim Factor the religion aspect the third is this labari governance whatever you call and fourth is your own electoral electoral muscle the organization your ability to convert your support into vote but what does Mr Modi according to you embody today what does he embody that on the other hand Rahul Gandhi does not see there are many depending on who you are you know for many Mr Modi is a selfman man man and Mo and Rahul is a dast that itself is a reason for them to go for Mr Modi you believe that that is still there the Kamar Nar narrative still runs I'm saying nobody can say how much but I'm saying this if you put 10 people in room who are voting for Mr Modi versus Mr Rahul Gandhi and you'll ask why are you voting for Mr Modi I'm sure two or three will say this issue that he's a self-made man and Mr Rahul Gandhi is a dynast there are two three will say that Mr Modi is honest he's not corrupt Mr congress party is corrupt under Gandhi's this has they have run a corrupt government there are third element which people will say that under him the Hindu resonance is happening so Hindu is there self-made man is there Incorruptible is there he's a hardworking decisive person he's bringing glory to India all those aspects we cannot say only one aspect so different people find different reasons but put together this eight five six issues which build Mr modi's Persona or the brand which allows people to say okay for this reason I want to be with Mr so as we come to the end I want to look into the future 10 years from now Mr Modi who's been this dominant personality will be in his 80s do you still see a Modi Centric BJP Centric Hindu Centric poity Congress declining and maybe a new political force emerging I I don't know about 10 years but it would be very difficult for BJP to continue dominating Beyond you know 5 years or so because that would mean like going Beyond 15 years of ruling country but what I see is BJP as a party as a political formation is going to be one of the dominant Force around which the politics will revolve in 20 30 years at least like it was in case of Congress again I must clarify this doesn't mean that I a lot of people think that I they start saying that I I'm saying that BJP cannot be defeated even if BJP is defeated BJP will be the central political force around which the poity will move for another 20 30 years at least somebody will emerge somebody will defeat them for sure in next 5 years could be done could be 10 years it could be done I don't know about the timeline and who will defeat but no would it be the Congress or a new political force in your view or Regional parties no it has to be a a congress in a new form uh which what does what do you mean by Congress in a new form new leadership or new form no what is new form ideologically the CH one side is this right right to right to center another is the left to Center so left to Center space is dominated today by Congress and the Congress has to reincarnate itself and come in a manner where it takes the dominant vote share of the left of center which is still in is bigger than right of Center so you don't see the likes of Arin krial and all emerging to occupy that I told you know you remember two three years back we had this discussion post Bengal and I told you it's literally very difficult because in 100 years last 100 years this country has seen only two pan India parties it takes time it takes 20 30 years for you to build party to reach the national uh taking a technical National Party status is not same as being a National Force National political iCal Force so for BJP it has taken more than 50 years make no mistake they started at Jang and they went to up to 50 seat then 30 years of decline then they re came repositioned themsel at BJP that take them took them another 10 years for them to become a national Force so I I would I'm not somebody who would say that Congress is going to finish the Congress in some form or other will remain the dominant Force oppose opposing the bjp's IDE ology and what BJP represents in a way you are offering hope to Rahul Gandhi and the Congress stay the court I'm not saying Rahul Gandhi I'm saying Congress the space left of center I'm saying that in this country left of center space is not going away and broadly that's what Congress claims to represent ideologically so if Congress were to regroup reenergize represent them uh re position thems they are there is a denominator there is a denominator to take final question where do you see yourself do you see yourself now what has happened in Bihar opening up the possibility of a third Force by 2025 vians SAA where this duopoly of Lalu and nitish may finally be over do you really see the emergence possibly for someone like you who can challenge this or do you believe it's very difficult to scale up or go on from a political strategist to building a party Raj I I'm in biar for last 2 years I have not I I'm not I'm I'm not planning to go biar because something has happened in Bihar yesterday 2 years I have left everything and I stationed in Bihar moving Village to Village and what I see and what I have learned and seen observed in last two years gives me full conviction that Bihar is just there to change and you would be surprised the kind of change India is going to see coming in be coming from Bihar in their Assembly Election not in the Lo SAA but in assembly elections you have to give a year because people are as I told you they are not looking at India people in Bihar they are looking to sort their issue out and that would be reflected in the banaba election so you're very interestingly telling me that in a way your hope is that even if 20124 Lo saaba is almost a done deal the state elections are becoming increasingly wide open and that's the real contestation that will take place in the next few years if I'm in oppositionist space I would fight with all the might the loksabha but I would not lose the hope and I would start preparing for each of the vidhansabha beat Maharashtra beat harana beat bear from today from today not after loksabha but what will happen they will lose Lo suppose they lose Lo SAA then three months they will go in oblivian then comes the vhan SAA election then they will say there's no left time left but if you know it's like the first line of fight is lo SAA you must start preparing your second line and third line and the real part power political and otherwise rest with the state winning the states so that is where the hope is and that is where opposition should put their focus on you know it's interesting you're saying this because I recall in 2021 when I had interviewed you during the West Bengal elections you had said that if uh the TMC loses India could be heading toward single party democracy now you're telling me multi- party democracy is alive and well certainly at the state level Indian demo you know Indian democracy has not been taken over by one leader or one I'm saying the same thing unless so long the states are even if you lose loab elections again and again but so long you hold your ground on in the states India is democracy that texture it's its multi polarity are going to stay and that is very important that even if you are not able to necessarily win Lo SAA don't give up hope fight with all what you have make sure that you don't lose the states maybe there is no opportunity for you to win Lo saah but you have enough opportunity to win your State win that and the tide will turn Okay Prashant Kishore for having given us a sense of what you believe is the big National picture as well as the state picture in this uh huge election year of 2024 thank you very much for speaking your mind thank you for having me thank you

Channel: India Today

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Id: q4oyQ_Yse-M

Length: 17min 22sec (1042 seconds)

Published: Wed Jan 31 2024