Inconsistencies in official numbers

you're most welcome to this talk it's friday evening the 29th of october now there's quite a few interesting things to help our comprehension today certainly help mine and to help our let's say um comprehension of mainstream media reports but because we haven't done one for a few days i just want to do a bit of orientation to see roughly where we are going and look at some problem areas it has to be said often neglected problem areas so um here we have the uh new daily confirmed cases and these are always adjusted per capita for the size of the population of course otherwise there'd be a little point showing them so new zealand okay level-ish there canada going down australia going down slightly and pretty good signs in australia actually united states well certainly a downward trend in the united states slight upward tweak there but an overall downward trend in the states and the cases i've gone down really pretty dramatically from this peak up here now areas of concern here netherlands just look at the increasing infections in the netherlands diagnose very sharp rise likewise in ireland this is indicative actually of a a few places in europe which is concerning as autumn comes they're going to be having a very high uh sort of takeoff base for the uh later autumn early winter time which is the time we're most concerned about at the moment so ireland there but then i'm afraid the united kingdom is high now it looks like cases in the united kingdom have dropped down quite nicely and looks like a bit of a trend developing there but as we'll see in this video this is almost certainly inaccurate i'm disappointed to say but we'll be looking at reasons for that because we really have to question the official line sometimes now moving on number of covered 90 pages in hospital per million united states going down this is roughly what we'd expect from the states from the reduction in cases but the uk going up ireland a sharp increase the capacity of hospital beds especially intensive care beds in ireland is limited so that is a concern again as we're going into the more risky time of year it's not where we would like to see it in uh in ireland canada netherlands uh much lower rates of uh patients in hospital per million people now here we have new daily confirmed deaths now the united states the deaths have gone down really has to be said pretty slowly starting at the top there they are starting to go down now because the hospitalizations and cases have been going down for some time but we have to notice still at a pretty high rate no cause for complacency at all in the united states cases are still at a pretty high rate as we can clearly see moving down united kingdom ireland canada netherlands australia new zealand so um trends there for deaths in the united kingdom and ireland actually not that good definite upward trajectory in those in those places patients actually uh in hospital per million people now these are the countries that mainstream media very often doesn't tell us too much about the former eastern bloc countries the former yugoslavian countries um very little interest in those in in the uk media very little interest in those in the united states media and yet let's see what we've got i mean serbia dear me and now i've left denmark in there denmark's pretty low uh patients in hospitals per million people and so so that's good no surprise there island as we've seen picking up uk picking up but look at the size of the gap here up to latvia lithuania the baltic states and uh and serbia really very high now notice here we don't have data available and it's not because i forgot to put it on it's just not available at the moment for places like uh russia ukraine belarus the the the data simply not available but we do believe that things aren't good there at the moment but those countries that are coming into the 21st century um in terms of reporting unfortunately the reports are not good now we do have new weekly hospital admissions for covered 90 per million for romania um where we don't have the number of patients actually in hospital so again denmark ireland united kingdom lithuania but then then we see latvia and uh romania very high and we believe that um moscow isn't too bad in russia but we believe that the more rural parts of russia are pretty bad meaning there's going to be unnecessary deaths it's unfortunately as simple as that likewise intensive care facilities are very limited in romania they've got a lot better since they joined the european community but still limited so remaining a very high number of patients in uh intensive care at the moment in romania serbia and then again for the context either united kingdom denmark or way lower so it's pretty obvious to me that there's quite a few people dying in these countries who unfortunately um really don't need to because of these high these higher these high cases and hospitalizations now moving on to the question mark i put over my government's data there um so um here we have the official government data here um sharing cases are down 12.5 on the week nice reduction but we do notice that um deaths are up quite a bit over a thousand in the past week and we do notice that patients admitted hospital up a bit now of course we would expect the delay but let's look let's look at um let's look at what we've got on this so this is the official government data showing the cases going down a bit but then when we look at the covered symptom tracker data and this is for the same period of time for october the same period of time the covered symptom tracker data is showing a continuous increase in people reporting symptomatic cases and here we see the coverage symptom tracker data here and we see it's gone up all the time so clear contradiction between the covered symptom tracker data and the government data site and getting perilously close that that's the distribution in the uk at the moment get getting really close to this hundred thousand a day number of new cases at least on the coverage symptom tracker data if not on the uh on the official government side which is only showing 43 000 new cases per day so which one is correct well we are in a position now to tell you i am in a position to tell you which one is correct because um the covered symptom tracker one is correct and the government one is not i believe and i'm going to tell you why uh that is uh i believe that to be the case well why i'm going to give evidence for that obviously it's not my belief so um poor lateral flow test reporting now a lot of people are doing lateral flow tests in the the uk but not many not as many are logging on and reporting it so it goes in the official government figures you see it could be a bit of a hassle we might not have the internet going at that time although most people do have internet it might be that um you don't really see the point of reporting that you've got a positive result so you know so no one else needs to know really or so people might think of course it's half term now you don't want any inconvenience so if one or two members of the family are testing positive and becoming minimally symptomatic well just carry on and enjoy half term as usual so this is could be the way people are thinking i do hope not but um i think it probably is uh and the other thing is that the government aren't looking for the right symptoms less than 50 of patients have the classical symptoms so the government's missing about 50 percent perhaps of cases because you need to have the official government symptoms the uh the class the the so-called classic symptoms to get tested um the the continuous cough the fever and the the loss of smell and taste but many 50 of people don't have those they simply don't happen so that's 50 that aren't getting tested now is the government doing this deliberately is dr jenny harris who is now in charge of the um was public health england it's now the oh what is it's got a new name now health security agency or something like that i mean is this is this what is it is it incompetence that she doesn't update the symptoms is it is it um ignorance well i don't believe it can be ignorance is it that the government doesn't want to see the cases to appear to be higher we don't know and of course dr harris is welcome to come on this channel anytime and explain the situation but at the moment it is unsatisfactory there's no two ways about it so do i would encourage you i've been filling this out every day now since the start of the pandemic do flick onto your um would you may call it the the the um is it the app store or something and download that and log your government log your data every day so that we have something to compare the government data to covered 19 symptom tracker out with zoe and uh kings college london and tim spector now this is from tim spector's site here top five symptoms in the vaccinated and children just happen to be the same so headache most common runny nose sneezing sore throat and then a cough and the loss of smell is six and the fever is eight so the government is missing 50 of cases and if you're not symptomatic you're not going to get a government test therefore they're missing all these cases therefore we can conclude that the government data here is inaccurate and the covered symptom tracker data here is accurate so i think we're now in a position to uh to mark this so um we're just that that's inaccurate there so we'll just go for that one out of ten and as far as we know this is accurate and it's not perfect because it's symptom tracker data but we'll give it a nine out of ten that's pretty that's pretty good that's probably the most accurate up-to-date data we have at the moment because when we compare against the so if you if you want an optimistic view then uh go to the government data if you want what is actually happening or near what's actually happening go to the office for national statistics which we're going to see is consistent with the uh with the covert symptom tracker data or go to the cover symptom track site itself now let me give the evidence for this here so office for national statistics with their nice viral logo that some of you say looks like a marine mine not for me to comment so office of national statistics here clearly supporting the coverage symptom tracker data check it out for yourself don't take my word for it there's the site overall coronavirus night covered 19 infections continue to increase in england in the most recent week so they are going up click clear clearly in agreement with the coveted track of data percent is testing positive still highest in those ages school age seven to eleven we'll have a look at that in a minute overall prevalence uh is increased in the weekend in the 23rd of october so it is increasing as we can see it is certainly uh certainly increasing that data is pretty uh pretty unambiguous there and i will show you some more detailed data on this uh in a minute as well that's pretty uh also pretty interesting now going on with the office of national statistics report well the amount of infections high um two percent of the population in england pretty well one in 50 people was only 1.79 the week before so an increase in england wales very high two point five six percent up from two point three one wales increasing in prevalence um northern ireland um 1.33 up from 0.76 not as high as wales but still growing up scotland um 1.36 up from 1.14 the week before and scotland of course and wales have more rigorous um legally enforced uh preventative strategies so they are not apparently working or the effect has not yet kicked in probably more likely to be the effect has not yet kicked in so looking at some data here from the covered symptom track wrap in a little more detail now these are new confirmed cases and now this is interesting because these this is in all people and these are cases in the fully vaccinated so we see a lot of cases in the fully vaccinated now the difference between the the two groups would be that that length there wouldn't it because that's everyone and of course everyone includes the fully vaccinated but we are seeing a lot of breakthrough symptomatic infections in the fully vaccinated although the fully vaccinated group is now much larger than the unvaccinated group so we do see that the vaccines are still giving a large degree of protection against symptomatic disease but they're still happening to quite a large degree there although there is more protection from hospitalization and death as we know but still getting symptomatic infection still transmittable of course can pass it on to others now this is the incident by age group here now this top line here is the uh the naught to 18. so this is the school age group is particularly high in the 11 to 18 year old age group they're picking you up in school and they're taking it home to this green age group here which is their parents generation slightly concerning to see some increase in the older age groups this red line here for example is the 55 to 75 quite an increase there and they are of course at risk of being hospitalized but this is the group that the the booster vaccine dose is getting round to but still um a significant increase there that could give rise to more hospitalizations and as we've seen hospitalizations are kind of at the upper limit of where we'd like them to be already in the uk prevalence by region well we see a general increase in most places there so uh the leader there is actually wales at the moment and this is the number of cases of a long covered that are developing based on these figures symptoms going to last for more than 12 weeks in 1500 people a day so 1490 the the area range there is is one three seven four to one thousand six hundred six new cases have long covered in the uk on the 23rd of october so that's per day so we do see that there's going to be this really quite significant burden of morbidity unfortunately for a bit of time to come now going back to the cover to the um office of national statistics data this is the number of people testing positive for antibodies 92 in england 90 in wales 91 in northern ireland and 91 in scotland now this has gone down a little bit so this is somewhat down it was 93.4 from memory i think so the number of people testing positive for the antibodies has actually gone down a bit as the antibody response is wearing off from people that particularly were vaccinated early on in the pandemic early on in the vaccination program who have not yet had their booster shots positivities increased in younger adults which we would expect because the infection spreading to that group or has been spreading to that group for some time shows sign of a slow decline in older adults now this is not because less adults have been infected it's because the immunity is or not the immunity but the antibody response is wearing off now this is based on an antibody finger prick tests now at the moment i think they're doing about 100 000 of these every month it's pretty impressive really just a finger prick test and what that means is this isn't a particularly sensitive test so you have to have a fairly high level of antibodies in the blood there's a threshold level of antibodies in the blood to get a positive test so the test probably is missing some people who do have antibodies but just don't have enough to trigger the test so that could be one reason it's going down and a negative this is a direct quote from the officer national statistics site a negative antibody test does not mean that a person is not protected because of course we know we have the b cells and we have the t cells and all these other lymphocytes that protect us from viral infection the b lymphocytes making antibodies especially the memory cells the memory bees and the memory t's and the memory t killer cells that will kill virally infected cells and and the natural killer cells that also provide a level of specific immunity to the virus so antibodies are only one indicator and how this is going to pan out in terms of future hospitalizations and deaths is not yet clear but we are expecting a good degree of ongoing protection well beyond the time when the antibodies have gone down so it's not a brilliant indicator but it is showing the overall level of uh exposure to the virus that these figures are accurate uh and of course these are people who've had at least one dose of the vaccine and or uh have been exposed to the the virus under natural uh exposure circumstances and they're gonna ramp this up to 150 000 antibody tests per month so pretty impressive and that's going to be every month for the next year so we are going to be able to keep a pretty tight handle on this and get some pretty uh accurate information last thing i want to look at we saw that deaths in the states are unfortunately high uh deaths between the 13th of march 2020 which is when people first started dying in this pandemic in the first of october which is basically as up to date as we're going to get for the office national statistics so this is basically the deaths from the whole pandemic in the united kingdom as a whole has been 119 869 deaths excess deaths above the five-year average now that compares to 140 000 deaths on people that have been diagnosed within 28 days of a positive test and 163 000 that have been on the death certificate so what we see is that the actual excess deaths are quite a bit lower than these other two figures meaning that some of these people would have gone on to die anyway and a lot of these people would have gone on to die anyway so i think this is the most accurate indicator of the number of people that have lost life from the pandemic still appalling of course but not as high as those figures would tend to uh to indicate current uk deaths from the office of national statistics well um these are all that's not not just covered death as we saw the covered deaths around about a thousand a week now 12 145 per week deaths altogether but this is still this is the key thing that's the key point it is uh 15 above the five year average so that is still happening now i'm just going to play you this because it's kind of interesting it's from a doctor in new zealand called dr anthony jordan who's asked a rather brilliant question so let's listen to the question and listen to dr jordan's response on new zealand tv uh new zealand radio sent in by um david sent this in so thank you david hello steve thank you for calling yeah good afternoon can you hear me yes steve what's your question uh the question is about aspiration of the mr and avexing i had mine done but i had to go to my gp to get it done and she advised that many people had come to that practice asking the same question now there's been a peer reviewed study in the states and they've had a lot of people with pericarditis and myocarditis over a hundred thousand serious hospitalizations which they believe now is a variable and there's also been studies in regards to the estrogenic and the thrombosis and they believe that's the same way that it's an accidental intravenous injection now fisa states quite clearly and i've read through their information now steve i'm sorry mate we just need to quit in question form because we've got a lot of people on the line so what's your question why aren't they doing it here when pfizer states quite clearly that it should not be done intravenously and the only way you can tell is to pull back and aspirate the syringe ever so small to see if there's blood there all right hold there steve here we go dr jordan did you get that yeah it's an interesting thing we don't traditionally aspirate back when we're injecting things into muscles just because it's quite a blood rich area anyway some people do though but it's not necessarily a requirement in intramuscular vaccination because you know we all know muscles have a lot of blood in it anyway yeah great sorry about that um what an excellent question from uh from steve excellent question citing peer-reviewed literature cut off guy didn't want to know not interested in peer-reviewed literature don't bother me with all this evidence steve what are you telling me evidence for and the answer from the uh what was the title our doctor that's right the answer from the doctor um we don't normally aspirate when we give in to intramuscular injections wrong doctor wrong we do normally aspirate when we're giving intramuscular injections it's just in the particular case of vaccination that um at the moment we are not but other intramuscular injections that we give for example depophenethiazines it's absolutely essential that we aspirate so that's wrong now the reason we don't aspirate is because it's a blood rich area anyway i think the next question might have been on the location of the olecranon process and the glutamus maximus because to say the muscle's a blood-rich area anyway therefore we don't aspirate as such a non-sequitur because we if it's blood rich then with all the more reason why we should be aspirating so clearly you just simply didn't know the answer so steve uh my congratulations on an excellent question um i don't know who steve is but if anyone does please pass this on to him he has my compliments on an excellent question and um he you know i i i managed to get this question to the irish uh the irish parliament as well the doctors there and uh i heard their response and we did play it on the channel and it seemed pretty clear they didn't understand the question either so when doctors don't even understand the question i find that a little bit concerning so there we go that's a bit of an update and i was going to say a a a bit of amusement from new zealand but it's not it's absolutely tragic so thank you for watching

Channel: Dr. John Campbell

Views: 314,166

Rating: 4.8462563 out of 5

Keywords: physiology, nursing, NCLEX, health, disease, biology, medicine, nurse education, medical education, pathophysiology, campbell, human biology, human body

Id: 1Hfq9gBkwBE

Length: 23min 41sec (1421 seconds)

Published: Fri Oct 29 2021