Immigration is Changing Europe's Population

immigration is changing Europe's demographic makeup the data is pretty clear in nearly all European countries the share of the native population is falling and the thing is there's a form of denial with people saying that we've always had immigration and refugees ignoring the unprecedented nature of non-european immigration and its scale on the other hand of the debate there is a lot of dorismar orial replacement Theory which says that Europe's native population is being replaced by voluntarily by non-europeans so I decided to look into this phenomenon to quantify how immigration is changing the ethnic makeup of Europe I looked into Data from National statistical databases and government reports including this time the UK Census Data eurad as well as scientific papers into birst of non-ethnic Europeans to build a complete picture of immigration as it is now and how it might evolve in the future this is the story of the demographics of immigration so in 2022 roughly 1.2 million people entered the EU regularly with about 300,000 irregular entries in the UK the number was about 700,000 regular migrants plus about 40,000 regular entries or about 0.4 and 1% of their population respectively but since this flow has been pretty constant these numbers add up as has the share of Europe's foreign born population in fact the share of foreign born in many Western European countries is higher higher than that for the United States a country that has long been seen as the king of immigration this is the result of two things first the shenen area which eliminated borders between EU countries and made it easier for Europeans to move around but it's also the result of waves of immigration that have come to Europe over the past several decades in the form of the guest workers of the 50s and 60s the refugees from the yugos wars of the 1990s and more recently the migration crisis so let's see what happens when we break this foreign born population Migration by region of origin EU and non-eu which incidentally is also what the UK does unfortunately this neglects some Europeans most notably ukrainians the Balan countries but also UK residents in the EU there were for example 300,000 UK migrants in Spain and 163,000 in France the countries with the largest population born outside the EU were in Sweden Ireland and interestingly enough Estonia actually count their ethnic Russian populations as non-citizens at the other end of the spectrum were Hungary Poland Slovakia and Bulgaria but if you want to account for demographic change we need to look further back the flow of non-european migration started in the 1950s in some Western European countries immigrants had kids and in some cases grandchildren which we need to add up in order to get the total number of non-european descended population one way to look into this is using data from the eu's labor force survey which looks into people aged 15 to 64 and allows us to classify them according to their migration background and that of their parents it has some limitations in that it excludes both the most recent wave of migration since the children would be under the age of 15 as well as older migration waves whose descendants are now in the third generation this means that these numbers are underestimates for the number of immigrant descended population but they should at least give us an idea of the trend the countries with the highest non-european population are in Western and Northern Europe with most Western European countries being between 14 and 18% though I wasn't able to include Sweden and Belgium since they messed up their data entry to eurostat and their numbers didn't add up to 100% good job Sweden and Belgium but let's see if we can take it a step further and also look into the newest generation as well as third generation migrants by diving into the national statistical databases of some countries we can only do this for a few countries who actually provide this data in the case of England and world this is pretty straightforward the government collects ethnic data on people by race and religion with some pretty detailed maps for the purpose of this video I'm going to classify people into four categories white British Island natives other whites including mixed race and non-mixed non-whites we can see that 75% of the entire British population is native white while about 20% of the countries people are from a non-european background most Continental countries understandably don't publish ethn data like this since in the past it's been used for some questionable Endeavors not least the genocides of the 20th century but we have some workarounds for some countries Denmark for example distinguishes between Western and non-western migration background even for Citizens the only way you can get rid of that label is by being born to at least one Danish parent or Western parents 84% of the country was native Danish while about 10% of the country was non-western descendant the French Statistics Office published a study into this specific subject so we also have this number for them for the third generation for people under the age of 60 keep in mind that this data includes children with a single immigrant parent and grandchildren with a single immigrant grandparent as well and so the number of immigrant descended population is likely over represented about 67% of the population was fully native descendant while about 15 and 177% of the population had at least one European or non-european grandparent respectively but we can ask ourselves how this trend will evolve in the future as I previously mentioned immigrants and in particular non-european migrants have higher birth rates than Natives and since many Natives and European immigrants tend to be older they skew the population statistics to being more European while younger Generations are much more diverse so to look at Europe's demographic future we have to look at the number of births in different European countries by country of origin here again we run into a problem of a lack of data for many countries I Tred to find the numbers for Germany Italy Austria or Sweden with the breakdown but they do not publish them or do not make the distinction between European and non-european migration so again we're going to focus on the UK Denmark and France as well as the Netherlands who does publish a similar statistic for Denmark that number is more or less stable with the birds mirroring the share of total population in the Netherlands non- European births make up 18% of all births versus 10% of the total population under the age of 55 that has foreign born parents but we have to keep in mind that this data might face the same problems we faced previously by excluding the third generation that I mentioned in the case of the UK we can see the difference of about 10% in the white population with the mixed race category making up more than half of the increase in non-white population mixed race made up 9% of the total population with people with a mixed weight ethnicity making up 6% of that total there is a similar Trend in France with a 15% lower share of the Native and European descended population in the younger generation but also accompanied with a 6% rise in mixed non-european and Native births in fact many of France's third generation immigrants have mixed ancestry with 71% of North African immigrants and 89% of other African migrants having only one or two non-native grandparents for the countries I couldn't exclude I can only speculate that similar trend apply and considering the scale of non-european immigrants that have entered Germany Austria and Sweden since 2015 as well as the historical immigration they've received the number of births would likely be equally if not higher than those for France or the UK one thing to keep in mind when we take a look at these results at the national level is that immigrants cluster in cities which means that in those areas the share of immigrant descended population is far higher we can see this in the ethnic maps of the UK for example with London Birmingham and e having white in other words native European minorities and the same is true for most European countries s to the north of Paris Amsterdam West in the Netherlands or Berlin for example are known for being ethnically segregated areas with majority non-european descended populations this also has the result of making the demographic shift much more visible to the everyday person in those areas so what happens next well there are two paths forward for Europe's populations the first is that we will continue to form separate and growing ethnic minorities within their countries while the other is that Europe's immigrants intermar with Natives and have kids one way we already touched on this was the rise in mixed background population in the UK which accounted for 9% of total births or the fact that 12.2% of all French births were mixed origin another way to actually measure this is to look into intermarriage rates between different immigrant groups this 2006 study looks into exogamous Behavior the read at which people would marry outside their group group for seven European countries across the board second generation migrants were more likely to marry outside of their imugan communities than first gen but there are huge differences between cultures of the immigrants and that of their host countries we can for example see that Western immigrants tended to intermar with locals at far higher rates while immigrants of Turkish descent were actually the least likely to marry outside of their groups but for other immigrant groups there were quite some interesting trends for example in the UK Indian and Caribbean migrants had relatively High rate of marriages with people outside their group in France migrants from North Africa were four times as likely to marry outside of their group than Moroccans and Belgium in fact if we compare this with data from the French Statistics office about 40% of marriages are taking place with natives though I have to say the data is a bit murky on this since it could be that the emerging fourth generation of immigrants which would be classified as natives gives the impression of higher intermarriage rates in this 2022 study by the Dutch government on the same subject we can see that Moroccans and Turks were the least likely to interm with locals but Indonesians interm with dut people at very high rates so where does this all leave us well the higher proportion of non-european birth means that the share of non-european descended population in Europe is likely to increase but the extent to which it changes depends on a couple things most notably how birth rates for Natives and immigrants and their descendants will evolve in the future in the Netherlands and Denmark for example the average number of kids by foreign women is less or roughly equivalent to that for neighbor War women whereas in France Germany or the UK it is much higher it also depends on how immigration will continue to play out in the future more immigration will obviously lead to a more non-european descended population in the future all of this paints a rather mixed picture Europe is undergoing an undeniable demographic shift with some Western European countries becoming increasingly diverse in some countries these communities are isolated from the rest of the population but other like in the UK or France presents some evidence of being potential melting pots with high rates of intermarriages between Natives and some communities of non-european migrants and there's still an ongoing question of which values are emerging from that mix and if some minorities adopt European values turn into a blended mix or keep their own but that is the subject for a different video if you want to know more about the nature of immigration to Europe where people come from and what they come to do then I invite you to watch this video that I previous made on Europe's immigrants I also wanted to say that this video was quite challenging to make particularly in terms of the data that is actually available government sources are obscure or Limited in scope journalistic sources were quite superficial and recent academic sources are virtually inexistent with the amount of research dwindling pretty clearly after 2015 which is ironic considering that's the year the migration crisis started it also means that this type of video takes quite a lot of time to make and because it's controversial commcial I also don't feel comfortable putting a sponsored segment on it I wanted to talk about how you could help support me in making such content one of my goals for the upcoming couple of months is to be able to rent out an office space where I can build a studio instead of having to build and set up all my gear on weekends in the middle of my co-working space this results in inconsistent lighting sound quality and also just takes up a lot of time I estimate that where I am it would need around €700 a month to be able to afford that and since this is quite an important fixed monthly cost I'd also like to be able to rely on fixed monthly income to take the step that's why I'm turning to a crowdfunding campaign I would need about 180 of the lowest threee tior that I have available on patreon to make this happen I recently revamped patreon Privileges and the interior of Discord server making it exclusive to patreon subscribers in order to make this possible and I will do my best to be active there and post updates on my work and other things I find interesting so if You' like to support the channel and more work like this one go check out the inter your patreon

Channel: Into Europe

Views: 114,923

Keywords: Europe, European News, EU, EU News, European Union

Id: _CDOZWeDq4U

Length: 13min 5sec (785 seconds)

Published: Mon Apr 22 2024