The World Population Crisis NO ONE Sees Coming

if you saw this graph of the human population  over the centuries you might be thinking we're   heading for disaster a world with overpopulation  food shortages and increasing global conflict over   increasingly scarce resources we've gotten so  good at maintaining human populations between   modern medicine modern farming and water and waste  management but as an engineer I always look deeper   at the data and in this video I want to make  a case for quite the opposite we're actually   looking at the beginning of a population collapse  and with it different but critical worldwide   challenges this is a good example of where it pays  to think like an engineer so let's see if we can   find some Trends and figure this all out together  I'm Ricky and this is Two Bit da Vinci this video is sponsored by better help let's start with how we  got here in the year 400 the world population was   around 242 million don't ask me how they figured  this stuff out it's pretty amazing it would take   another 1,00 years to double the population in  the year 1500 around the time Columbus sailed   the ocean blue to 503 million it would double  again to 1 billion in 1805 just three 300 years   later in 1927 it would double again to 2 billion  in just 122 years in just 49 years after that it   would double again to 4 billion in 1976 the next  doubling just happened in 2022 and we reached a   population of 8 billion 46 years later now you  might be tempted to extrapolate from here and   figure the world population will break 16 billion  sometime around 2070 but that won't be the case   were still growing but not exponentially anymore  the population is growing more slowly every day   that means that to what most people think we  won't grow indefinitely the world population   will reach a maximum plateau and then begin to  drop and it'll drop really quickly 23 countries   including China Spain Italy Japan and even Russia  will likely see their populations have by 2100   Japan's projected drop is particularly dramatic  researchers expect Japan's population to shrink   from its peak of 128 million in 2017 to just 53  million by the end of the century that's an almost   60% drop one of the first whistleblowers related  to a demographic crisis was Paul erick's 1968 book   the population bomb he was one of the first to  propose that the population in explosion would   be met by a shortage of resources later leading  to war famine and finally collapsed by the year   2000 later in 1972 researchers from MIT reached a  similar conclusion but set the deadline at around   2040 caused also by resource depletion pollution  and social collapse these predictions not only   made their way into mainstream pop culture  but they also affected policy in fact China   imposed a one child policy dubbed late long and  few which cut population growth in half between   1970 and 1976 other countries had similar  things like in India where station programs   were taking foot however the following decad saw  strong exponential growth and steered away from   those projections which is why most people my  age always seem to worry about there being too   many people on earth rather than too few in fact  in 2021 the United Nations forecast was that the   population would increase to 11 billion by the end  of the century this is why I was really surprised   to find out that we're headed in the totally  opposite direction a recent study commissioned   by the organization the club of Rome predicts  that if current trends continue the world's   population which is currently 7.96 billion will  Peak at 8.6 billion in the middle of the century   before declining by nearly 2 billion before the  Century's end another study by the University of   Washington published in the lanet predicts it'll  rise to 9.7 billion by 2064 then fall off to 8.8   billion by 2100 while it could drop all the way  to 6.3 billion if the UN sustainable development   goal are met that's a drop of 3.4 billion people  in just 34 years while it took us 42 years to grow   from 4.56 billion to 7.96 billion that we're at  today this means the projected drop is faster   than the growth we've had for all these years  so give or take a couple of billion people one   thing is clear it's very likely that we're living  in the time when there are the most human beings   on this planet that there ever will be ever just  take a minute to let that sink in it really blew   my mind let me know what you think are we lucky to  live in this unique time are we unlucky let's get   the conversation going someone recently asked  me how we go about making these videos I'm not   going to lie it's a mental health battle and for  me the big challenge is burnout and that's why I'm   excited to tell you about our sponsor this week  better help whether it's the stresses of juggling   work and family or challenges like anxiety or  depression mental health matters we're living   in a golden age of mental health with platforms  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to think that it was what they   feared the world can't handle that many people  this is commonly referred to as the petri dish   Theory we're like bacteria growing in a Petri dish  and there will be a point when no more people will   fit and there'll be no more food available however  that's not really the case at all because human   beings have engineered the environment since  we stopped being Nomads we just made a video   about new technologies that are feeding the world  and we still have plenty of room to grow no the   problem is that birth rates and fertility rates  are collapsing the birth rate is the total number   of live births per every thousand people in the  population during any given year if birth rates   decline then there won't be enough children to  offset the number of people who died during the   same year leading to A reduced population if you  don't count immigration to be fair the decline   in birth rate is nothing new it started around  around 1760 at the beginning of the Industrial   Revolution this was caused mainly by modernization  and then urbanization as people moved into big   cities women started studying and working and  pursuing life goals other than becoming moms   leading to A reduced fertility rate another  important factor that drove birth rates down   was the fact that the rate of kids survival into  adulthood increased dramatically at the beginning   of the 20th century half your kids were likely  to die as children however in those times when   most people had Family Farms they needed those  kids to work the fields and to help provide for   the family so families needed to have plenty of  children now almost all kids reach adulthood so   families don't need to have so many kids it's  almost unimaginable today but it would be like   thinking hey I need four kids to help me around  the farm so if half are going to die we should   probably have eight kids as quickly as possible  today if you wanted four kids you would have four   kids and they'll probably all reach adulthood  the fertility rate is the average number of   children a woman of child rearing age will have  as you can see in this graph fertility rates have   been dropping consistently in the last century and  are projected to keep dropping there's a critical   fertility rate that defines when populations  start to collapse it's called the replacement   level fertility which is the level of fertility  at which a population exactly replaces from one   generation to the next leading to a stable  population in developed countries replacement   level fertility is 2.1 children per women remember  this is an average it's not like you're going to   have 2.1 children it's more like out of 10 women  of childbearing age nine will have two kids and   one will have three so the population starts to  fall once the average fertility rate drops below   approximately 2.1 right now it's around 2.27  and according to projections from the UN it'll   fall below 2.1 by around 2050 and Below 1.7 by  2100 but that's the global average at a country   level things are far worse in most Nations 183  out of 195 countries including the US already   have fertility rates below replacement levels the  lowest of the low is Korea where women are having   78 children on average this implies that over 20%  of Korean women are childless if you're wondering   in the US the fertility rate is Just 1.66 4  way below replacement levels the only reason   why our population hasn't started collapsing yet  is because of immigration this puts things into   perspective doesn't it the highest fertility rate  is in the African country Niger where every woman   has 6.82 children on average it's no wonder Niger  also has the highest birth rate in the world with   45.2 births per 1,000 people every year I don't  know if you know this but China is no longer the   largest country in the world by population  India overtook China for the first time in   history last April even though their birth rate  fell below their replacement levels in December   22 10 years ago India's fertility rate was 3.5  and today it's approximately two now there is a   long list of reasons but one of the main drivers  for the fertility drop today is that women enjoy   a better quality of life they're more educated  and have better job opportunities in many cases   women today partise their careers over having  a family or if they do have children it'll be   much later on in life because the more you go to  school the more you study the later you start your   family some other reasons according to experts  are one many families and couples are delaying   having children because of how expensive raising  children is however across the board women who   reach 30 without having a child only have a 50/50  chance of becoming mothers in the future according   to one survey as many as 80% of women who end up  being childless didn't intend to be childless they   just delayed motherhood for too long many people  today genz men in particular simply decide not   to have children at all also people don't seem  to be dating as much anymore many people have   delusions and unrealistic expectations that  hold them back from relationships which may   explain why in China approximately 240 million  people that's almost 20% of the population are   single Digital entertainment social media only  fans have all created distractions from dating   making people less likely to want to have children  in fact it surprised me to learn that young people   today are simply having less sex then there is  access to condoms and birth control pills which   is arguably the greatest factor in lower birth  rates in Britain for example from 1950 1960 60%   of married couples use condoms 60% some of those  causes have become highly politicized topics of   debate between conservatives and liberals why  don't you hit pause for a second and leave a   comment answering some of these questions I think  the cultural aspects are fascinating and I'd love   to know what all of you think okay so those are  some of the facts but what does it matter if there   are fewer of us on Earth isn't that a good thing  I mean wouldn't cutting the population down by 20%   or more come with an equivalent drop in energy  consumption and greenhouse gas emissions and   water usage wouldn't that kind of save the world  that is not an easy question to answer especially   not without stepping on some toes you see the  problem isn't just the population itself it's   also how the population is made up the problem  is that life expectancy has been on the rise at   the same time as birth infertility rates have  been declining so it's not just fewer people   are being born it's also that people are living a  lot longer so the population is generally getting   older population demographics by age have been  a pyramid for most of human history with more   young people on the bottom than older ones on top  today in countries like China Russia the US Japan   and Korea that has changed into almost a square  for example here in the states we have a roughly   equal number of baby boomers 69 million Gen X  67 million Millennial 72 million and gen Z 69   million and things are projected to get worse all  over the world the fastest growing demographic in   the world today is people over 85 years old to  give you an idea of how bad this is by 2100 the   number of kids under five is expected to shrink  from 681 million in 2017 to 400 million while at   the same time the number of people 80 plus years  of age will Skyrocket from 141 million in 2017   to 866 Million by 2100 we're gonna end up with an  inverted pyramid at some point which is why Elon   Musk quote civilization ending in adult diapers  the effect is a massive drop in population that's   already happening and that's fed by a negative  feedback loop this generation is having fewer kids   so there'll be fewer people of reproductive age in  the Next Generation who will also likely want to   avoid having kids and so the cycle gets stronger  and stronger let's look at some specific examples   of countries that will have it rough before the  end of the century Russia is the first example   it has seen a double dip in birth rates caused  by the fall of Soviet Union and again by the war   in Ukraine this drop has been met with an increase  in death rates and massive immigration both caused   by the war in Ukraine and the co 19 pandemic as  well as the bad economic climate this graph shows   Russia's population from 1960 to 2050 as you  can see Russia's population has been shrinking   for some time now remember in your high school  Calculus class when you were thinking what on   Earth am I ever going to do with derivatives in my  life well here's a perfect example of mathematics   and application you see to find the exact maximum  on a graph all you need to do is look at at the   graph for its first derivative that's because the  first derivative shows the slope of the original   curve when that slope is zero that means you've  got either a peak or a trough if the derivative   passes through zero going down from left to right  then you're in a peak and vice versa notice how   the green line crosses the horizontal zero line  three times so when the slope is zero you have   a maximum or a minimum and that's kind of what  I've been looking at if you just looked at the   raw numbers you might be thinking oh my gosh the  population is going up but the derivative tells   a different story in 1950 China had 500 million  people it's a lot but in 70 years they jumped to   1.4 billion that was massive growth that drove  their economic Prosperity but China peaked at   1.41 billion people in 2021 and projections  now point to losing 700 to 800 million people   by the end of the century two big causes for  China's population collapse are a plummeting   fertility rate and reduced birth rate coupled with  an increased death rate without immigration adding   an increase in life expectancy which is already  81 and you have a perfect population aging storm   but here's where the big difference between the  US and China is the Chinese population drop is   big news because as their aging population is  no longer in the workforce they have a smaller   and smaller Workforce and their GDP numbers  are starting to decrease other countries like   Vietnam where there's much more of a young  population is now seeing that uptick in GDP   but the Saving Grace for the US is its high  desirability for immigrants to want to come   here that is what keeps the US relevant and keeps  our population numbers very healthy it also brings   in new young people who join the workforce pay  taxes and start contributing to the GDP most   people don't fully understand the risk of a major  population collapse on things like infrastructure   goods and services business and I didn't either  until recently the problem is that our system   and infrastructure are designed to be built for a  growing population they're not built for decline   for example every city or town that has a fire  station and a police department is funded for   from all of those citizens what happens if the  town's population dwindles and there's not enough   income from taxes to fund those systems we might  see a system where cities can no longer afford to   have police or firefighters and it might kind of  fall into collapse and Chaos this kind of happened   in Detroit which is one of the thriving cities of  the 50s after World War II Detroit was Motor City   it was the manufacturing headquarters of the  world but as people started to move out entire   neighborhoods became abandoned and police stations  had to shut down and the City kind of fell into   ruins now there's some recovery happening now but  that could happen at a large scale Social Security   or pensions or other retirement plans are kind of  a pyramid scheme now that kind of has a negative   connotation it's probably the most beloved pyramid  scheme of all time but that's kind of what it is   the average Social Security payment in the US  is $171 which means for a retired couple that's   $3,400 the average salary in the US is around  55,000 now 12.4 4% of your paycheck goes to   Social Security but you only pay half that your  employer pays the other half that means that if   the average American is making $4,600 a month at  12% that's $574 per worker you would need nearly   six workers to pay for one retired couple or three  workers to pay for a single retiree with a healthy   perent of more younger people than old that's  doable and we've Managed IT for all this time   but what happens when we stop having babies and  there are no longer people working to pay for that   this system would fundamentally collapse in fact  the Social Security program is expected to run   short of cash in 2033 while a key trust fund for  Medicare will run out of funds by 2031 assuming   no hardcore policy changes then a shrinking and  aging population means fewer people will pay taxes   more people will be on long-term care there will  be higher pressure on all nation's Health Care   Systems there'll be a reduction in the workforce  in countries like the United States Germany and   China will have to rely on immigration to recover  jobs to keep their economies aoat consequently   labor demand will go unmet and when that happens  everything starts to fall apart however it's   more than likely that countries will make strong  policy changes that will affect you and me some   examples of such policies include making people  work longer this means raising the retirement   age or increasing the number of days to work you  need to put in to access a pension countries like   Greece Denmark Iceland Israel and Italy have  all increased their retirement ages to 67 the   highest in the world in France the retirement age  was recently raised from 62 to 64 because of the   demographic crisis and that decision was met with  riding in the streets they burned Paris to the   ground that's how up in arms they were with Just  2 years imagine how bad the news will be when more   and more countries start jacking up the retirement  age countries like China will absolutely have to   raise their retirement age the problem with this  is that you were working your whole life with a   promise that at a certain age you would retire  comfortably but if there aren't people behind   you to take up the Realms in the workforce your  country might not be able to honor that promise   and that's what's so unfair about it if you were  told work until this age and then you'll get this   money the rest of your life and they change it on  you that can make you Furious and that's one of   the things I'm most worried about in the near term  is some of the policy changes that are going to   happen but the big policy change that I want to  see happening around the world is an incredible   incentive to have children in China with only  having one child everyone wanted boys and so it   was horrible what they were doing to baby girls  in the hope that you would have a son and as a   result now there's way too many men there's way  too much competition it's hard to find people to   get married it's kind of a nightmare playing  games like this the unintended consequences a   theme you'll hear on my Channel all the time will  always catch up to companies and countries that do   things that they probably shouldn't ultimately the  better thing is to incentivize good good behavior   in the US we have a decent child tax credit but  it's not very much and honestly compared to the   cost of daycare and diapers and formula and food  and nannies and babysitters and clothes and shoes   it's not even close and that's the problem we  should make it absolutely wildly incentive for   people to have children especially for people who  have higher incomes and can support those children   and the best way would be tax credits for higher  earning people to get some of that money back if   they have children we got to get out in front and  try to do everything we can to make it easier for   children companies are also to blame a little bit  here because in the US we have pretty horrible   mother and father time off policies when you  have children that kind of stuff should be deeply   improved for me I used to work at Salesforce and  as the father for my second son Salesforce gave me   I think it was 75% of my salary for 6 months while  I was on paternity leave that was a huge blessing   I saw my kids grow up I was able to help my wife  and that was one of the big things that made it so   much easier but on average in the US I don't even  think you get a week and that is incredibly taxing   imagine telling a mother who just had a child to  go back to work how do you breastfeed how do you   take care it is kind of a problem and countries  around the world are way behind on this the US for   example God Bless America I'm I'm a huge fan of a  lot of things but the way we treat having children   is horrible and ultimately we have to figure this  out because otherwise we're going to fall below   that retention number and we're going to see the  population slowly Decline and that would be a true   shame right because everything is tied to this  you want to make a new iPhone app you want to   make a new business you want to sell product make  a YouTube video and try to reach as many people   as you can all those things require customers  that would be like the total addressable market   and if that's shrinking and there's more people  with fixed incomes with less disposable like in   retirement you're going to see businesses and the  stock market crash too everything foundationally   is tied to populations now what's the exact right  number of people on earth I don't know the answer   to that but I will tell you that what we're  looking at is a monster about 30 years away that   no one is talking about and no one sees coming  but it is absolutely on the horizon and it's   something we should be concerned about we have to  try to do everything we can to make it easier for   people to have children incentivize it tons of  PID time off and honestly Better Tax incentives   for people who have the income to take care of  extra children and hopefully we can reverse this   but honestly I do believe that as Society gets  more and more advanced and more luxurious and   there's more luxuries in life I do think generally  family sizes will shrink so it's hard to know if   this is a problem that can be overcome but I  do know one thing I would love to know what   you think sound off in the comments below and  let us know what you think all right until next   week if you thought that was an interesting  video you got to check out this one next

Channel: Two Bit da Vinci

Views: 1,026,371

Keywords: two bit da vinci, population collapse, population decline, stephen j shaw, stephen shaw, elon musk, human population growth, human population and the environment, human population dynamics, human population decline, human population growth crash course, We're 1 Generation from Human Extinction - Unpacking Population COLLAPSE, replacement rate, elon musk population collapse, elon musk population decrease, population decrase, The World Population Crisis NO ONE Sees Coming

Id: tk5KoWUwz6Q

Length: 21min 54sec (1314 seconds)

Published: Sat Sep 09 2023