Immigration crisis: Will Nigel Farage return to politics?

[Music] thank you to begin let me hold up this week's spectator again migration nation is the cover piece and it's about the news that the government is expected to soon announce or even admit that legal migration net legal migration is somewhere around 700 000 immigrants coming into this country it's a lot higher than was expected and Fraser Nelson explores the possibility that it may be being used to cover up the large number of British people who are on benefits he joins me now to explain his thesis along with the politician turned broadcaster Nigel farage Fraser I think what people find most striking about your piece is uh that brexit seems to have meant more immigration not less because that was not what we were told it would do now during the campaign both the leave and remain campaigns argue that brexit would mean significantly less immigration you couldn't find any economic analysis of brexit but didn't assume that my net migration would go down quite significantly now you want some people on the relief campaign were saying you know what this is what we need fewer migration and therefore scarce workers have become more scarce therefore the salaries go up and on the remain sides there was a moment where Stewart Rose the former m s Chief was in question time and he rather famously said yes and there'll be fewer migration that means more content for Laborers and labor costs will go up and that's not a good thing so you had the two sides agreeing on whether it was disagreeing on whether it was good or bad the end that you would end up with less migration and perhaps higher salaries who have a low paid and you can argue yeah people will be paying more money for the Pizza the waiters are paid more you know that kind of argument but nobody disagreed that brexit with significantly lower migration and it would be a better way of managing globalization that they basically it got a bit out of control under the Blair period in many ways almost the whole point of leaving the EU was to Take Back Control of Border policy so we would exit the system of free movement and being able to decide how many we'd want what we now find is when they've taken back control the government's giving almost 500 000 visas a year and when you include the students who nowadays apparently have got one and two dependents and two the number Hits 700 000 or probably more we're going to get that next week but this isn't an accident because Richie sunnank has now got complete control you can decide whether to issue a Visa or not so this is deliberate policy but one that hasn't been announced and one that hasn't been explained and I think it should be well we should say that by spectator office standards you are something of a dove or on immigration you'll certainly a dove compared to the man sitting on your left but you still find this very troubling because because of unemployment because of long-term sickness because of the fact that a lot of British natives are in a welfare trap essentially yeah I think the mass immigration has been overall quite a stunning success for Britain and we have had a massive and demographic change one in five of our workers now is Fordham born and I think in London um half of all children have got an immigrant mother including I should say my own three kids I'm contributing to this phenomenon um and I think that we've Managed IT in an incredibly successful way if you look at the coronation for example a couple of weeks ago we had a Hindu prime minister Buddhist Home Secretary Muslim mayor of London Muslim first minister of Scotland in no other country in the world would you have had this picture of successful integration so we pulled it off very very well and I think we continue to pull it off well we're finding out Aviva status positions that were getting three quarters of a million net migration that hasn't been riots in the streets about it there was no populist party I mean while good Nigel was running the brexit party talking immigration they were used to becoming first in the European elections only a few years ago now there is nothing nothing to the right of the conservatives Richard Tyson's lot fueled 500 candidates of the locals they've got something like five or six candidates through a dreadful success rate so we don't have any what you might call anti-immigrant populist party or anything approaching my description either in Parliament or in the opinion polls so the public seemed to be quite happy with this if there isn't happiness it hasn't expressed itself politically now where I'm concerned is I think although immigration works very well it can perhaps work too well for Temptation politically to use this to cover up the failures of the welfare state is very great like earlier on this week we had figures coming out showing 5.3 million Brits or now to work benefits we would really notice that if it wasn't for Mass immigration because we wouldn't have anybody to run the economy but when we can cover it up with mass migration it works Nigel you made some waves this week by saying that brexit has failed because of what the government's done with it yes you know number one we haven't actually helped business businesses are leaving we've got a brain drain going on for the first time since the 1970s secondly there's an absolute breach of trust with the electorate over immigration which is absolutely perfectly clear the only reason we won that referendum were people turning out on Council Estates in the Midlands of the north thinking you know what this is the one time my vote can make a difference and thirdly uh brexit is failing because it's actually turned out that our politicians are about as useless as the European commission now you know that doesn't mean voting to get back sovereignty was wrong far from it but in the minds of ordinary brexit voters this isn't working and I'd remind Fraser there were a third group of people in that referendum uh talking about immigration those that didn't want to talk about it at all I remember being told you know by Hanan and Boris Johnson no no no no no don't discuss immigration in the referendum we'll lose the referendum you know some of our very Posh friends don't like this sort of thing in the end they were forced to talk about it reluctantly but they never ever Boris never intended to reduce the numbers of people coming into this country so the First Fundamental question to address is that breach of faith I think it's very strong and very real and secondly let me say this the electorate assumed with brexit that immigration had been dealt with and they're now beginning to understand that it hasn't been dealt with and you may well say there's no populist party in British politics at the moment there will be it's coming disconnect the disconnect is bigger now than it was in 2010. I could see in 2010 that the political media class in London just had no idea what everybody else in the country was talking about and I think we're heading back to that and quite quickly let's get on to the future of properties politics in a moment because I think that's where they should go and for now it's fair to say polls suggests that immigration has dipped in in terms of the issue which voters consider most important I think it's now fourth or is it Fifth what if it's not being discussed that's not surprising I mean if there is no coverage of the issue and people don't know what's going on that's not surprising the reason the reason that immigration became the big political issue that it was is that people in their minds linked it to membership of the European Union that was what the ukip surge was all about that's what you successfully did yes and it took me years yeah it took me years to make that connection and I from 2004 I said to all the people working with me once I can make this connection this political part is going to a different place I think over the course of the next year or two people will start to make the connection that the reason there's a housing crisis is mass immigration the reason they can't get a GP appointment is mass immigration the reason their lives are more miserable than they were 10 years ago their quality of life is diminishing is because of the population crisis an explosion in this country but in what way is it a crisis you're living in London earning good money living in a lovely house talking about rich Hindus who happen to be our prime minister go out onto the council Estates meet people I think you'll see the audience you know my driver my driver my driver's kid didn't go to school last year the school's too full 13 years old not at school right so your driver what you're saying that the local authorities refused to provide this child with the police because they're in education places that's right it's happening all over the country doesn't this illegal for your councils to refuse people no home education has been given online no place at schools you go to Lincolnshire for example you'll find four and a half five-year-olds maybe 20 miles on a bus to get to school you there is a population explosion that is damaging and diminishing the quality of life of ordinary folk in this country if you don't see it now I promise you you will see but why is it well I can't work out is this if there is this um this anger then why hasn't got no political expression why does um why the reform party do something incredibly badly just a few weeks ago if we polled a thousand people in Stoke on Trent now and asked who the Reform Party was I wonder how many would know that it even exists you know that's the problem you know we may know because we live in this world ordinary folk don't know and actually establishing political movements is not an easy thing to do and reform is effectively you know it may be a follow-on from the brexit party but effectively it's a new political party so two things I would say number one the reason we're not seeing this expressed more is because it's not been given voice but it's beginning to be we're having this National debate now about numbers and number two there's not a political leader that people can see at this moment in time voicing their concerns once those connections are made between I mean everything even travel even travel even even the length of Journeys potholes in the roads these are all symptoms of a population crisis and it's going to dominate British politics over the next 10 years is it not a problem then if as you say for because of brexit well brexit came about because people linked the European Union of mass migration now people will say well we've had brexit and we still have mass migration no we don't know what they'll say is they lied to us yeah they lied to us but maybe they wanted control over immigration that's the big difference United that before there was probably no control um free movement that's what it means right you cannot draw it now right now if you look at this coming in there are different people but not the pools the Indians are now number one Follow The Thing by Australians then you have Nigerians then you have Americans now to get a visa for this country you need to be over a certain salary threshold you need to speak English you need to be getting a job in a certain profession this was wait a second I got a second I mean the salary criteria when Australia does this it says we're short of Engineers we're short of people in these sectors we will open up spaces in this sector in nearly every single case those that go to Australia are earning more than the average wage what this government have done is they've lowered the thresholds the most unimaginable levels where actually the threshold to come in is eight to ten thousand pounds lower than the average wage that's why the numbers are where they are they have deliberately engineered this and of course they've got their big business friends encouraging it but equally as you point out in your article there is this massive welfare is a problem of 5.3 million people and it appears at the minute that no political party's got the courage to take that on so it's all well and good to say you have to pass these tests to come in but we've set the threshold so low in terms of qualifications and income as if as for it to almost be meaningless maybe this is making it more palatable though maybe that is why when there's a recent poll asking people all over the world what do you think of immigration Britain emerged as the most Pro country in the world other than I think Norway and I wonder if that's because we see the migration differently now now the brexit has come along we know that to get a Visa you need a job nobody's really talking about lazy foreigners who aren't really you know these are people who are by and large more likely to work and then Brits now nobody was ever talking about lazy foreigners that was never the argument the argument was about wage compression the argument was about difficulties getting onto social housing lists the argument was about fundamental changes in community the argument was about the fact well why is never speaking English a mystery they were very very different arguments and they were arguments very firmly rooted around Community around family and of course the ironic social conservatism of so many labor voters you know which actually is still there I mean you know those red wall voters are surprisingly small C conservative and patriotic people in many many ways so no I think that the idea that well we've got back control we've chosen not to use it but we've got control so we're all happy is I think it's for the birds friends I mean you've focused a lot on illegal migration in your in Immigration yeah in your journalism and so on yes uh do you think the fact that that is such a media uh preoccupation distracts from the the issue of legal migration which as you say is the reason I did that the reason I went on this illegal immigration thing back in sort of late 19 early 20s is because nobody else wanted to talk about it was literally being buried under the carpet so I thought well I'm gonna you know cause a bit of noise on this and get because it was obvious to me in 2020 that the numbers that came would explode because virtually nobody was being deported anywhere else and you can come in be put in a hotel you still and you literally stay in a four-star hotel and go to work every day in the black economy and earn cash it's happening all over the country so I pushed that because I wanted it I wanted it to become a big issue also because you know my fear from 2015. and the reason that I use that Breaking Point poster that's so upset the Metropolitan Elite is that the EU have made the same mistake with the Mediterranean um and I feared I feared that unless we got a grip through brexit that we'd face a similar wave now it may not be the same numerically but symbolically the boat's crossing the English channelism but the way the numbers that are crossed into Europe so far across the Met is trouble last year so there's more of this coming but ironically yes everyone's now become so focused on what's been happening illegally with 45 46 000 people last year that you're right it's it's it's it's kind of stopped us talking yes about legal net numbers I remember you accepted an award at The Spectators parliamentarian of the Year Awards a few years ago and you said you'll never hear from me again okay well I have to ask you do you think there's obviously a space opening up to the right of Richard now particularly on the issue of immigration will you be going back I think it's I think it's bigger than that I think the absolute betrayal of the five and a half million men and women who were sole Traders and self-employed I mean you can't believe the anger in that Community out there they load the conservative party they fear labor will be even worse but they load the conservative party the complete lack of understanding of how the ir35 rules in practice are working in the building industry Etc so it isn't just on immigration there is a I think the sense of detachment the the conversations that are happening in Westminster are so far removed from older people's lives I mean what I campaign with the brexit party in 2019 quite successfully we got rid of Mrs May and I'm rather proud of that but the slogan we campaigned on wasn't even about brexit it was change politics for good there was a hope and a feeling that a different kind a more engaged kind of politics would come from brexit none of that's happened so they asked you a question is very simple the Gap that is opening up in British Politics on the center right um is potentially bigger than it was with UK yeah I mean I mean it's a very very big gap you very skillfully didn't listen to the second part about my question which is will you try and fill that game I haven't finished yet sorry give me a moment I was ignoring you I can be accused of many things ignoring questions so the potential is there and something or someone at some point is going to fill it you know I I sort of call it an anger Gap now it depends who fills that anger Gap I hope and believe what I did before was a positive way of filling it by saying let's get our sovereignty back as a means of dealing with these problems before I came along the already came to prominence the anger Gap was being filled by Nick Griffin and it's very easy to forget between 2005 and 2010 the extent to which the BMP were laying down Roots you know in those Northern Town councils Etc I I haven't decided what I'm going to do I mean I'll be honest with you um I I do feel that a large chunk of the country deserves some representation and deserves a voice equally um I still pretty bruised by the 2015 general election how can you get four million votes in one seat it makes it a very difficult thing to do I haven't decided what I'm going to do but something's going to come along if it's not me it'll be it'll be a Nick Griffin Mark too you know we will we will have a rise of something way out on the right it's happening as we speak all over Europe albeit aided by propulsion representation system something is going to change something is going to crack and I think coming back to UK politics uh you know I think I've got a better understanding of those red wall voters than than pretty much anybody frankly um they were the people that were the backbone that built ukip up into being a major party in British politics and if the conservative party on its current course thinks he's got any chance of winning a single one of those seats that that I'm afraid they're deluded the only thing that might save us is this the one thing the conservative party is really good at is survival you know it's been around for a couple of hundred years it exists to attempt to get power and to hold power so they've still got time I guess if they chose to be genuinely radical but I can't see it happen by radical you mean cutting a number of visas issued versus your definition because the funny thing is we've just had local elections and how many parties are various Stripes Just For Speed is not a sign not a sniff of the sort of anger that you're talking about because is it real or might it be because there's no way but but that was like that that was the same effectively before 2010 you know other than the BMP you were just selling it I think Griffin was getting a huge number palpable anger then the BMP in the north but they had a big presence at the moment if you want to vote that way there's nobody giving a voice to it that's the Gap in the market but it looks like a lot of those verses are going back to labor now yes I've met them this weekend yeah I've met them this week why do you think they're going back to it is it because Kirsten was talking to the right on some things no I just I think this Tory party they don't identify with these conservative politicians at all they briefly did with Boris for a bit he seemed rather fun uh he seemed rather normal identify with cure storm right no not really so why are they going back to labor because they're tribal labor that's where they come from they've been their families have voted labor since 1918. you know the the sort of the gateway drug of ukip and the brexit party took them to the conservatives in 2019 and that was on a brexit let's get this thing sorted out let's get back control of our borders um but they're going back to labor because that's where they're from and the concern and and I think there's also a profound sense of disappointment that the brexit thing has not worked out the way they really wanted it to I think we'll wrap it up there but uh thank you very much thank you for coming in and thank you very much for talking about your cover piece thank you [Music] thank you [Music]

Channel: The Spectator

Views: 96,599

Keywords: The Spectator, Spectator, SpectatorTV, Spectator TV, SpecTV, The Week in 60 Minutes, TWI60

Id: JYMO96UFAiI

Length: 19min 40sec (1180 seconds)

Published: Sat May 20 2023

Reddit Comments

[u/Disillusioned_Brit]

What exactly is he gonna do? I've read the Reform UK pamphlet and honestly it just looks like a repeat of 2010 David Cameron as far as migration is concerned.

I'm not frankly sold on anyone dealing with this issue except SDP's William Clouston, and even then he's not enough to fix the ongoing demographic shifts. But at least he's got a policy platform in place.

Farage may hit the right talking points now but he could've easily done that back in the early 2010s when the nationalist movement was much stronger. Instead, he spent his time scapegoating Poles and Lithuanians and telling us we need skills based migration from around the world.

[u/donloc0]

It's true that everyday folk don't seem to be as angry about legal immigration because of the hurdles in place. No major party will rock the boat there so it will be someone who takes the anger gap and focuses purely on that issue.

Like the housing theory of everything or the health theory of everything, I won't be surprised to hear more about the migration theory of everything in the next 5 years.

[u/Litmus44]

Like him or loathe him Farage has been the most successful politician in the last 25 years without ever being an MP. A tour de force with the sole aim of getting the UK out of the EU. He did more than any other individual to make that happen. He is the one man who could galvanise support to bring an end to the immigration fiasco. More power to his elbow. Needs to form another party with only one policy. Immigration control.

[u/TollyMack]

If he returned to politics and had Reform merge with Reclaim & SDP as well gaining a few dissatisfied Tory MP’s willing to defect to this new conservative party then it may change the game ahead of 2024, and will certainly make things harder for Sunak and Starmer.

Immigration is an issue that Brits are concerned with and have been so for the last four elections.

What a new conservative party has to do is help the young, the youngest conservatives right now are probably in their mid to late 30s ie people born in the 80s who were old enough to remember the last Labour government and have been jaded by them as a result, I have a fair few friends who are of this mindset and have voted Lib Dem as a result but they would be open to a Conservative Party which helped young people, and that’s where the Tories have completely failed.

I can see Farage returning to politics in the near future, like him or hate him or indifferent to him, he’s the most successful politician in the last two to three decades, no PM in recent history has achieved what he’s achieved whether you agree with it of not.