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bucks a year. 2017 was an especially turbulent year for
North Korea, even by its already aggressive standards. In February, Kim Jong-Un’s older half-brother
Kim Jong-Nam was assassinated in Malaysia. During the summer, it accomplished its long-awaited
nuclear goal of firing an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the
U.S. mainland. With this new firepower, it threatened to
attack the American territory Guam, which the U.S. countered with its own threat of
war. The U.N. Security Council passed more severe
sanctions, and the U.S. re-added North Korea to its State Sponsors of Terrorism list, joining
Iran, Sudan, and Syria, nine years after being removed. Then, in early 2018, tensions began de-escalating. The world sighed a deep breath of relief as
North Korea agreed to send athletes to the South Korean Winter Olympic games, one of
a series of actions intended to signal its goodwill. And although this cycle of rising tensions
followed by diplomatic charm was both familiar and expected, there was real hope that, this
time, because North Korea had finally achieved its nuclear security guarantee, it would genuinely
be motivated to make and stick to a deal. Kim Jong-Un personally invited Donald Trump
to a meeting, then-director of the CIA Mike Pompeo secretly flew to Pyongyang for preliminary
arrangements, and after several near-cancellations, both sides agreed to a summit. This would be the first-ever meeting between
a sitting American and North Korean leader. The decision to meet, however, was only the
first in a long chain of private negotiations which would take place in the weeks leading
up to the event and would significantly impact its outcome. One such important detail was the location
of this historic meeting, which, in many ways, would set the tone of everything to come. Initially, five places were rumored to be
in consideration. U.S. officials mentioned Vietnam, Thailand,
Switzerland, Sweden, and Singapore, specifically. At first glance, all of these choices seem
like strong candidates, and the case could easily be made for each of them. Sweden, for example, was the first Western
nation to establish an embassy in Pyongyang, who it has maintained unusually strong diplomatic
ties with. The U.S., which does not have an embassy in
North Korea, frequently works with and through the Swedish embassy acting as an intermediary. Switzerland, where Kim Jong-Un received his
childhood education, was also a prime contender. Europe, however, had a natural disadvantage
in that it’s simply too far. Between taking office and that point in time,
Kim had visited only two countries - China and South Korea, on three trips, during which
he was, at most, only 700 kilometers or 400 miles from his home country. Another option, Mongolia, was within reach
of Kim Jong-Un’s state plane or armored train, but lacked the infrastructure necessary
to confidently guarantee a smooth-running event. Most importantly, though, the choice of location
could not be seen as a concession by either side. Indeed, even holding the event would already
be perceived by some as legitimizing the rule of Kim Jong-Un. Therefore, the U.S. side would likely not
agree to Pyongyang, Beijing, or Russia. The search was narrowed between either near
the Joint Security Area on the Demilitarized Zone or Singapore - the latter of which ticked
all the boxes and then some, and was finally agreed upon. Strangely, the small island city-state is
considered ‘friendly territory’ by both sides, and would even be approved of by other
interested parties like China, Russia, and Japan. This, on its own, is remarkable - that a nearby
Asian country would have no direct stake or interest in the dispute, beyond a peaceful
resolution. Even more so that a country in the region
would have strong diplomatic relations with both North Korea and the United States simultaneously. Singapore hosts a North Korean embassy, traded
a small number of goods with Pyongyang before sanctions were tightened, and, amazingly,
allowed North Korean passport holders visa-free entry until 2016. Practically speaking, it could also guarantee
a summit without interruptions. Protests are allowed without police permission
only in a single area of one public park, called the Speaker’s Corner. A Kim Jong-Un impersonator, in fact, was detained
and questioned after arriving from Australia. These same legal features which lead some
visitors to call Singapore ‘boring’ were precisely what made it so attractive, despite
being relatively far, for Kim, and the event going incredibly smoothly. On June 10th at 8:20 pm, Air Force One landed
at the jointly operated U.S. and Singapore Air Force Paya Lebar Air Base. Kim, on the other hand, arrived earlier that
afternoon at Singapore’s main international airport, before touring the downtown area
in the evening - a sign of just how safe the young dictator felt. The Singaporean government, meanwhile, was
not merely an observer. It held high-level meetings with both presidents,
paid for the North Korean accommodation, and released an official logo for the event - promoting
its reputation as a trusted, neutral third-party facilitator. This image has been carefully crafted over
decades. It also hosts the annual Shangri-La Dialogue
and rotating summits of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. In 2015, Singapore was chosen for the no-less-historic
or delicate meeting between chairman Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China and then-president
of the Republic of China, or Taiwan, Ma Ying-jeou. That event was so sensitive in nature that
even the linguistic terms used were carefully scrutinized. Because neither side recognizes the legitimacy
of the other, officials negotiated their respective titles in advance. They would be addressed as the ‘Leader of
Mainland China’ and ‘Leader of Taiwan’, and refer to each other only as ‘mister’
in Mandarin. Here, too, Singapore is unusual in that it
carefully engages both sides of this heated geopolitical divide. Its military has trained with Taiwan since
the 70s and is the only Southeast Asian country to share with it a bilateral free-trade agreement. Singapore’s long-standing, almost default
status as a trusted intermediary makes it easy to forget just how unlikely this fact
is. Having been forced into independence by its
expulsion from the Federation of Malaysia in 1965, the new republic faced several potentially
existential threats. At about 700 square kilometers or 270 square
miles, Singapore is about 1/4th the size of Rhode Island, has no large lakes or rivers,
is devoid of natural resources, and is now home to around 5 and a half million people. Not only is it not predisposed to project
global power and relevance, but its small size and close proximity to much larger Malaysia
and Indonesia make even its continued existence challenging. And because of its strategic location on the
Strait of Malacca, it even faces threats from non-state actors like pirates. These undesirable circumstances impressed
on its early government the urgent necessity of making and keeping as many friends as possible. From those early days of independence, Singapore
positioned itself as the Switzerland of Asia - engaging with anyone who would accept its
friendship. But while Swiss neutrality is deliberately
static and unchanging, Singapore attempts to balance the relative influence of its powerful
allies - China and the United States. In addition to being its largest source of
foreign investment, the U.S. is also a significant military partner. When the American military was ordered to
leave the Philippines in the 90s, Singapore allowed it access to its Changi Naval Base
- one of only a few piers in Asia deep enough for U.S. aircraft carriers to dock and resupply. American nuclear submarines, aircraft carrier
groups, and spy planes regularly transit through Singapore on their way to conduct ‘freedom
of navigation’ exercises in the South China Sea. This military cooperation agreement was renewed
for the second time in 2020, and, in another sign of its strong ties, the U.S. also sold
Singapore twelve F-35 fighter jets. But while it engages with the U.S. very closely,
it does not do so exclusively. Singapore is careful never to choose sides. For example, it never officially refers to
the U.S. as an ‘ally’, and uses the term ‘American facilities’, not ‘bases’. Likewise, it abstains from discussing sensitive
issues in China, including its controversial maritime claims. Singapore conducts military training exercises
with the People’s Liberation Army, and China is its largest trading partner. Realistically, neither China nor the U.S.
likely appreciate its close relations with the other, and occasionally attempt to tilt
the balance in their favor. When Singapore is tested, however, it almost
always remains disciplined in its neutrality. For example, in 2003, it turned down an offer
to become an official non-NATO ally to the U.S. And in 2016, China impounded nine of its armored
military vehicles in Hong Kong on their return journey from training in Taiwan - a clear
reminder of its influence. For the most part, both sides appreciate the
predictability of this strategy, which has survived three Singaporean Prime Ministers
and ten American Presidents - six of which were Republican, and four Democratic. For decades, Singapore has greatly benefitted
from the economic rise of China, while not being beholden to it, thanks to its close
military engagement with the U.S. In not being forced to choose sides, it’s
benefited from both. But as China has grown in size and influence,
deteriorating its relations with the U.S., Singapore has remained small. The close personal relationship of its founder,
Lee Kuan Yew, with China’s leadership is no more, and, once again, it must fight to
survive. As the peaceful stability which enabled its
prosperity is replaced with more aggressive relations between its two non- ‘ally’
allies, the cost of neutrality will only grow. In other words, one day Singapore may finally
be forced to choose a side. But until that day comes, it would like for
both sides to fear the outcome. Singapore’s natural dependence on other
countries has led it to pursue some unusual policies to ensure its security. For example, the Singaporean government has
convinced its population to drink pee. Humorous as that sounds, it’s absolutely
not a joke. To find out what drinking pee has to do with
Singapore’s national security, you can watch the extended version of this video which replaces
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