(soft suspenseful music) (troops yelling in foreign language) - [Radio Operator] Zero
to three, two, five. - There's a small volcanic island off the southern coast of
Japan called Mageshima. (slides clicking) Nobody lives here, but here's
footage from January 2023 of construction workers
arriving to this island. Their task is to build a
couple of runways on the island and some storage
facilities for ammunition. The Japanese government has
been paying local fishermen to stay away from this island. That's because they're turning
it into a military base. The island is being built by Japan, but one of its main purposes has to do with the United States. American fighter jets and aircraft carriers have
had to do their drills and practices down here on this island, but now they're able to
station at this island, moving them much closer to this ocean and to one country in particular. (tense music) Mageshima is just one of many islands that are being loaded up
with military hardware, most of it coming from the United States. It's part of this chain
of militarized islands, an effort of defense or aggression, depending on how you look at it. It's a line that centers on Taiwan, and it's what one
official was referring to when they said that
2023 is likely to stand as the most transformative
year in US force posture in this region in a generation. This line is a symbol of the rising tensions
between global superpowers, and I wanna show you why
this is happening now and what it means for the
future of this conflict. - This is unlike anything
the US Navy has done since World War II. - Tensions are rising in one of the most hotly
contested regions on the planet, the South China Sea. - [Pilot] Philippine military aircraft, I'm warning you again. Leave immediately. - Hey, I'm gonna pause
the story really quick to tell you about today's
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sponsoring today's video. Let's dive back into this important story. Here we go. Okay, so this document from
the US Department of Defense, this document is called the
National Defense Strategy of the United States of America, which also includes the
Nuclear Posture Review and Missile Defense Review. It's basically a report that
they release every four years that gives us an understanding of what the US military is
up to, what they care about. - [Radio Operator] Zero, three,
be advised we have a visual. - But this year's is more
detailed than normal. The document focuses a lot on China. - If China threatens our sovereignty, concerns directly with China. - The DoD says that China, quote, "remains our most consequential
strategic competitor for coming decades." Why? Because, the Pentagon says,
China is bullying its neighbors to, quote, "reshape the region
and the international system to fit its authoritarian preferences." Now, remember that the United States, who spends loads on its military, has set the rules for our global order, how we trade, what
political systems we favor, who participates in the system, and now we see a country
that wants to dethrone them to create a new system
based on other values and other rules. (energetic electronic music) And what scares the US military is that China is rapidly modernizing and expanding their military. China's military is
growing incredibly fast. Like they deploy the equivalent of an entire new British
Navy every four years. Every four years, it's
like new British Navy, like new Royal Navy every four years. Yeah, they're just growing very quickly. This report is concerned
about China's growing strength and military footprint. (troops yelling in foreign language) - How China is coercing its neighbors, disregarding ocean
boundaries, testing missiles, bullying fishing vessels
in other countries' waters, building islands and military
bases on those islands, and flying over other countries' airspace and especially in Taiwan, the island that China claims as their own and where the globe gets nearly all of their advanced microchips, which is a topic I made
an entire video about. The point is Taiwan is an
incredibly important island for the United States. All of this together makes China, quote, "the only country that has the intent and power to actually challenge
the US-led global order and rewrite global rules and norms," something the US has gotten
really comfortable doing over the last 70 years. So this is why the US considers China the most consequential
strategic competitor for coming decades, and they've
created a plan to respond. And in their words, "We cannot delay." They give themselves this 10-year window to implement some major changes, and this is what it looks like. Okay, first things first. The US military is already
very present in Asia. We've got about 8,000 troops in Guam. We've got over 100 bases in Japan with about 21,000 American
troops on the mainland and another 24,000 stationed down here on the Japanese island of Okinawa. Go up to South Korea, and
you'll find 22,000 US troops. And then you've got the US Navy who operates out of
this port in Singapore. This has been the status
quo in Asia for decades, and it has been the way that the US has ensured
security for its allies, and it's kind of mostly worked to help secure American
interests and deter conflict. The US has maintained strong
alliances in this region and, frankly, the Pentagon
has kind of been distracted with other things, two wars
that happened in the Middle East over the past 20 years. - My fellow citizens, my fellow citizens. - Surrendered at 4:00.
- My fellow citizens. - But as those conflicts wind
down and as China militarizes, the Department of Defense
says that this status quo, all of these troops in
Asia, it's not enough. They talk about this
new kind of deterrence, integrated deterrence, the only kind of military posture that will actually keep China at bay. And this is what it looks like. The smallest part of
the strategy has to do with American bases. They're gonna reopen a base in Guam and move some troops there. But the majority of
this strategy has to do with American allies in Asia, allies that are in
lockstep with the US's goal to deter and contain China. The Pentagon calls partnering with its allies the center
of gravity for this strategy. So let's start with Japan, one of the US's closest
allies in the region. Japan is a country that
is deeply concerned about a more powerful China, with its massive navy and its
ambitions to control Taiwan. And it's very easy to forget
that Japan isn't just this. It's actually all of this. It extends way down here
because of all these islands. These islands curve
nicely all the way down till they hit Taiwan. All of these are Japanese islands. I mean, if you look at Japan's
national defense strategy translated into English, you will see something that
looks strikingly similar to what the Pentagon released. They're both really
freaked out about China, and they both are ready to act in lockstep to deter a more aggressive
China in the region. So it starts up here with that
island that we talked about at the beginning, Mageshima, this new military base and airstrip to be used by both
Japanese and US militaries. Further south is Amami Island, where Japan has recently
added long-range missiles and anti-ship missiles. Potentially they're gonna
add cruise missiles. These are missiles that they're buying from the United States. These are missiles that are definitely in range of the Taiwan Strait. Next in the chain is Okinawa, where the US has a huge presence of tens of thousands of troops already. Japan also has military bases here and is adding even more
long-range missiles and electronic warfare units for military installations
meant to disrupt and deny communication signals. On these two islands down here, they're adding even more
long-range missiles, which could potentially be used to attack Chinese naval
ships and aircraft. And Japan is placing nearly
600 troops on Ishigaki as well. And finally you've got this
last militarized island in the chain, Yonaguni. It's the closest island to Taiwan. And here Japan is adding more of those electronic warfare units which are used to jam
communication signals or to listen in on their communications. You know, they're right next to China. Japan is also positioning
more troops here. So this is the first part of our chain, and when paired with training that Japan and US troops are doing to simulate island and amphibious warfare, it sends a really strong signal to China that Japan is ready to respond if needed. This line also serves as like a physical barrier
that any Chinese ship or submarine would have to pass through in order to access the Pacific Ocean. It's a line that Japan can
easily control and monitor, and it also builds a wall of missiles. Any calculus that China is making on whether or not to invade Taiwan or to do anything in the
region will have to now factor in this wall of missiles ready to roll. Overall, this increased military presence on this chain of islands gives Japan and by extension, the United States, the ability to monitor communications and troop movements of China, preparing them to act quickly. And it also gives them the
ability to pre-position troops and supplies throughout the region, which is a major logistical advantage. But all of this comes
with a massive price tag. So, Japan, which is
formally a pacifist nation without like a huge military, is actually planning to
double their defense spending. They're spending way more on buying weapons than
they ever have before, and 97% of those weapons are
coming from the United States. The island-chain strategy
continues down here with the Philippines, close to Taiwan and close to the South China Sea. The US knows that it needs
to bolster its presence here, but it's not as straightforward
as it is in Japan. The Philippines was a
US colony for decades. It's a very sensitive history. And even after Filipino independence, the US maintained a military presence in the Philippines until like the '90s. And then they eventually
kicked out the US, as many saw it as just an
enduring legacy of US colonialism. But a more aggressive China
has become a major threat to the Philippines. Now listen, I'm not gonna go into like a full South
China Sea thing here, but just know that
China claims all of this as their maritime boundary. It's literally a line with nine dashes that some Chinese official in
1948 drew by hand on a map. This line blasts through the boundaries that the rest of the world recognizes as the Filipino territorial waters. So there's a conflict in the ocean, and now on a daily basis, Filipino fishing vessels are harassed by Chinese military vessels, who threaten them if they
don't leave their waters. In 2022, China put a temporary stop to all fishing in the South China Sea, denying the Philippines' ability to fish in the West Philippine Sea, which is rightfully their waters. But it's crazier than that. The Chinese Navy is like full-blown just bullying the Philippines. They like show up with lasers to harass and blind Filipino ships. I mean, let's remember the Philippines is a much
smaller nation than China and doesn't really have a navy
even close to what China has. So now they're in this
impossible decision. They have to choose between
giving up their sovereignty and fishing rights to their
aggressive neighbor, China, or partnering with their former colonizer, who also wants to repel China. And in this case, they chose the latter. - China has pushed too hard. It's pushed the Philippines
in the South China Sea, what they call the West Philippine Sea. - The Philippines is planning
to boost its military presence in the disputed South China Sea. - It started in 2014, when
they allowed the US back in for the first time in 22 years. The US presence will
technically be in bases that are owned by the Philippines, but the US can have troops, build barracks and other military installations, and can have pre-positioned
supplies there as well. It's basically like
the US has bases there, but it's like, sh, it's
actually the Philippines. And as part of all of this
that we've been talking about, in late 2022, they
expanded their agreement, giving the US military
access to four more bases, bringing the total number of bases on the Philippines up to nine. And look where they selected to put them, here in the north of the country, strategically close to Taiwan and helping fill their gap in their island chain
that they're creating. This now allows US to have a military presence
really close to Taiwan. The US trains very closely with
their Filipino counterparts, making them ready to respond very quickly to an invasion in Taiwan while also repelling Chinese bullying of Filipino fishing activity. Okay, so now the island
chain is filling out, giving the US and its regional
partners a solid blockade to the Pacific, and it continues all the way
down around the South China Sea because of the US presence in Singapore. This is a very united front,
but it doesn't stop here. (camera shutter clicks) The last part of the strategy is potentially the most significant, and it has to do with Australia, a country that is also alarmed by China's rise in the region. So there's this military pact between the US, the UK, and Australia. It's called AUKUS. What it means is that
these three countries will work together to create
a unified submarine force that will patrol the Pacific. First what it means is
that the US is giving, giving, nuclear submarine technology, its most powerful and advanced
weapon, freely to Australia. Here, here are the designs
to our most powerful weapons. Take them, foreign country. And then the US and UK
will base submarines out of this port here in Australia. It's called Perth. Australian sailors will ride alongside US and UK sailors during
submarine deployments. They will learn together. They will work together. They will share classified intelligence. What this means is that there will be a
significantly larger number of submarines patrolling these waters. And remember, these are
nuclear-powered submarines, which we made a whole video on as well. These things can be underwater for months. They can go on these long
patrols over to Taiwan and the South China Sea. They can close up these key choke points, plugging holes in their
growing line against China. And crucially, we can
be pretty damn certain that a lot of these submarines will be carrying nuclear weapons, adding yet another
layer of deterring power to an already really
powerful line of defense. And if this wasn't enough, Australia is also building
a permanent hangar for US B-52 bombers up
here in the Tindal Airbase in Northern Australia. These US bombers carry
conventional weapons, but they also carry nukes. So now US bombers carrying nuclear weapons will have a permanent home in Australia. There's gonna be a lot
more military hardware in the Pacific because of this, hardware that carries the most powerful and dangerous weapons we have. This is a very aggressive signal to China that the West is ready. (camera shutter clicks) So now if you look at the
whole thing, this whole chain, you see how robust this presence is. This is what that military
official meant by transformative. The military name for this
is the first island chain, and it is at the heart of the US' and its allies' strategy to
counter and contain China. And it's easy to see
that this island chain, while protecting a lot
of different interests for a lot of different countries,
really centers on Taiwan. A major purpose for all
of this militarization, the missiles, the subs,
the airbases, the troops, is to prepare for conflict in Taiwan. And this is where we get to
the paradox of deterrence. You prepare to fight so that
you don't have to fight. All of this preparation
might be just what is needed for China to decide that
it would be too costly to invade Taiwan. But the other side of that paradox is that all of this looks an
awful lot like overt escalation in a conflict. If you're China, this chain of islands is clearly your
enemy trying to box you in to monitor your every move, a superpower from the other side of the world flooding your region with more military hardware
to stop your influence. It would be impossible for
this plan to not contribute to a rising of tensions
between the two superpowers. - All this as the US prepares for a potential conflict with China. - How close are we to all-out conflict between the world's two
largest superpowers? (Chinese minister speaking
in foreign language) - Chinese President Xi Jinping has already called this a policy of encirclement and suppression. And let's be honest, he's right. Whether you like it or not, this is containment old-school,
Cold War-style containment. It's hard not to see it
when you look at this map, and the Chinese Foreign Minister said that it would literally be impossible for China to not fight back to take a move that
retaliates against this move, which means that if the US and its allies aren't
careful with all of this, it may send a signal to China that now is the time to invade Taiwan before all of this plan
can fully be implemented. In that sense, this strategy
could provoke the very conflict that it is trying to deter. (suspenseful music) Hey, everyone, thanks for
watching today's video. Thanks again to CoPilot
for sponsoring the video, link in my description
if you wanna get started, 14 days for free. I wanted to tell you
about a couple things. Number one, this is a poster, and it's why all maps are wrong, and it's a beautiful poster
on really nice thick paper with dozens and dozens of map projections. If you're a map nerd like me, this kind of stuff is really fun. We have LUTs and presets that we use to color our videos and photos that we develop with a
professional colorist. And if you are interested
in joining our community on Patreon, it is called The Newsroom. We publish an extra
video there every month where we show you behind the scenes of how we do what we
do here in the studio. - We're hot boxing the studio. - I need more smoke. - [Crew Member] We're gonna
have Johnny sit there. This is Kyle. - Oh my God. - And even though you
didn't print out any maps. - Ah! I also published my scripts
there and a lot of stuff, but it's really just a way for you to support what we're trying to do here, independent journalism on YouTube. Thank you for being here. Thank you for watching. Let me know your thoughts on this video, and I look forward to a
lively debate in the comments. Have a good day. Okay. (light music)
