SOME OF US NEAR SAN FRANCISCO. 70s TOMORROW AND LOW 60s BY WEDNESDAY. >>> EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS AND THERE IS A STRONG CHANCE IT WILL LAST THE REST OF THE YEAR. WE GET A CLOSER LOOK AT WHAT THAT MEANS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS . >> WELCOME TO WHETHER EXTRA ON CBS NEWS BAY AREA. I AM THE METEOROLOGIST. WE TAKE A DEEPER DIVE INTO A WEATHER TOPIC. THIS WEEK WE WILL TALK ABOUT EL NINO. IT REQUIRES A LITTLE MORE EXPLANATION THAN THE TIME WE CAN DEVOTE TO THE SPECIFIC SUBJECTS DURING THE WINTER CAST ON KPIX FIVE. IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT IT WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND AROUND THE ENTIRE WORLD LATER THIS YEAR AND INTO 2024. IT HAS BEEN A YEAR SINCE THE LAST EL NIÑO EVENT, LET'S DO A REFRESHER. EXACTLY WHAT IT IS. IT IS SOMETHING THAT HAS AN IMPACT ON WHETHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTRY, BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT OCCURS THOUSANDS OF MILES AWAY. IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. IT HAVE TO DO WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LET'S SET UP WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS. THE NORMAL STATE OF AFFAIRS IS THAT THE TRADEWINDS, WHICH BLOW FROM EAST TO WEST, TAKE THE WARM OCEAN WATER NEAR THE EQUATOR AND PUSH IT INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC. WHAT THAT ALLOWS IS FOR COOLER WATER TO FLOW FROM UNDERNEATH AND REPLACE IT OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. IT IS CALLED UPWELLING. USUALLY THE TEMPERATURE OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTH AMERICA ARE QUITE COLD AND TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC ARE WARM. DURING AN EL NIÑO EVENT THE TRADEWINDS WE CAN OR RIVERS. IT IS LIKE TILTING A BATHTUB WERE ALL THE WARM WATER PACKED UP NEAR AUSTRALIA AND INDONESIA FLOODS ACROSS TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. IT PUSHES THE COLD WATER FURTHER DOWN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND YOU GET THIS ABNORMALLY WARM PATCH OF WATER OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE PROBLEM IS, WHILE IT IS A SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE PHENOMENON, IT HAS BIG IMPACT ON WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE OCEAN LEVEL. IT HAS A DOWNSTREAM EFFECT, NOT JUST LOCALLY BUT AROUND THE ENTIRE WORLD. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THE SIGNS THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. WE WILL BRING IN OUR VIRTUAL EARTH AND TAKE A LOOK AT THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP. WE ARE TRACKING HOW FAR ABOVE OR BELOW AVERAGE CURRENT OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE AND YOU CAN SEE THAT RIGHT BLOB THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA, EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT INTO THE PEAK OF THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN EL NIÑO USUALLY OCCURS, USUALLY DURING THE WINTER. WE ARE SEEING THAT PATCH OF WARM WATER. YOU CAN SEE THE TRAIL THAT LEADS BACK INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE PACIFIC . ALL THAT WATER IS FLOODING ACROSS IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY INTO EL NINO STATUS YET. THAT TAKE SOME TIME TO EVALUATE. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST DATA FROM NO WHERE THEY ESTIMATE ABOUT A 40% CHANCE THAT WE ARE GOING TO BE IN EL NIÑO CONDITIONS ONCE THEY TABULATE THE DATA FROM APRIL, MAY AND JUNE. AS WE GO FARTHER INTO 2023, THE PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. BY THE TIME WE GET TOWARD LATE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL, WE ARE LOOKING AT AND OVER 90% PROBABILITY WE ARE GOING TO BE IN A EL NIÑO EVENT AND OVER 50% CHANCE IT WILL BE A STRONG EL NIÑO EVENT. THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. THE LAST EL NIÑO OCCURRED IN THE WINTER OF 2015 -2016, WAS CATEGORIZED AS A STRONG EL NIÑO EVENT AND THE IMPACT IT HAS WILL BE THAT MUCH MORE DRAMATIC. ACROSS THE ENTIRE WORLD. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF EL NIÑO ON A TYPICAL BASIS FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTRY. AND THE WAY THIS HAPPENS IS BECAUSE THE WEATHER PATTERNS GET THROWN OFF, THE JET STREAM'S GET REARRANGED FROM THE TYPICAL ARRANGEMENTS. THE PACIFIC JET STREAM GETS PUSHED TO THE NORTH WHICH BRINGS WET CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN THE GULF COAST AND THE POLAR JET STREAM IS PUSHED TO THE NORTH WHICH RESULTS IN WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND PATTERN WITH WET CONDITIONS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN EARLY TAKEN FOR THE MONSOON PATTERN. AND RECORD-SETTING TEMPERATURES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST . WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY IN EL NIÑO CONDITIONS YET. FOR THE BAY AREA WE ARE ON THE EDGE OF THAT WHAT SIGNAL. THINGS CAN TECHNICALLY GO EITHER WAY. PEOPLE TEND TO ASSOCIATE EL NIÑO WINTERS WITH UNUSUALLY WET CONDITIONS. THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO, THE FARTHER AWAY YOU GET FROM A STRONG CORRELATION . WE LOOK AT THIS CHART AND THERE ARE FIVE DIFFERENT STRONG EL NIÑO EVENTS WE CAN IDENTIFY AND LOOK BACK AT THE DATA FOR THE BAY AREA AND SEE HOW THE RAINFALL HAS SHAPED UP. LOOKING AT THOSE NUMBERS AND ADDING UP THE RAINFALL FROM DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO , THREE OF THOSE EVENTS , WERE UNUSUALLY WET WINTERS OVERALL. RAINFALL ESPECIALLY IN 1997 AND 1998 WAS DOUBLE WHAT IS TYPICAL DURING THE WINTERTIME MONTHS FOR DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO. THAT IS THREE OF THOSE FIVE THE OTHER TWO DID NOT SHOW THE STRONG CORRELATION TOWARD WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. THE LAST EL NIÑO HAD ALMOST EXACTLY AVERAGE TOTAL RAINFALL . THE ONE THAT OCCURRED IN THE MID-1960S HAD BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL. THINGS CAN GO EITHER WAY. AS WE LOOK AT THE LONG-RANGE OUT PREDICTION , THEY ARE SHOWING A DECENT CHANCE OF DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AREA. THERE WILL BE A NEW OUTLOOK LATER THIS MONTH . I'M CURIOUS TO SEE IF THIS PROJECTED PATTERN GETS REARRANGED . THERE WILL BE TALK ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE EL NIÑO AND THE IMPACT ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTRY AND WORLD, IN THE BAY AREA IT DOES NOT MEAN WE ARE LOCKED INTO A WET UPCOMING YEAR LIKE THE ONE WE JUST HAD. IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO MODERATE. THERE ARE TELE CONNECTIONS WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT CAN HAVE A HEAVY FOOT ON THE SCALE OR THE GAS PEDAL . EVERYTHING TO TALK ABOUT IS THE IMPACT ON GLOBAL TEMPERATURES. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EL NIÑO EVENT IN 2015-2016 IT WAS CATEGORIZED AS THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD GLOBALLY. DISTRACTS GLOBAL TEMPERATURES DATING BACK TO 1975. YOU CAN SEE GLOBAL TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DECADES. THESE LINES ARE THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT THREE YEARS . THIS YEAR IN BLUE, NEXT YEAR IN RED AND 2025 . THEY ARE ESTIMATING A 50-50 CHANCE BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF EL NIÑO, 2023 WILL BE CATEGORIZED AS THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD BUT A RECORD THAT WILL NOT STAND LONG. THEY SAY THERE IS A 75% PLUS CHANCE PERCENT AT 2024 WILL BECOME THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD AND THERE IS AN 8% CHANCE THAT 2024 EXCEEDS THE 1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS THRESHOLD AGREED TO IN THE PARIS CLIMATE RECORDS. THAT IS THE RED LINE WE LOOK AT IN TERMS OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN LINE WE CANNOT GET PAST FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. THAT WE ALREADY MIGHT BE APPROACHING THAT BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DEVELOPING EL NIÑO. IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL WATCH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SPRING INTO THE SUMMER AND INTO THE FALL.
