How Carl Sagan "Predicted" 2020... in 1995

if you're in any way plugged into the science and skepticism side of social media it's likely you've had a particular carl sagan quote come across your feed at least once every few months it seems to go viral alongside captions like carl sagan predicted today's headlines or carl sagan describes the 2016 u.s election or it's scary how accurately carl sagan predicted the state of america today the quote in question is an excerpt from carl sagan's 1995 work the demon haunted world it's found just a couple of pages into chapter 2 titled science and hope while important context does surround the excerpt i'll read through the quote as it's usually shared i have a foreboding of an america in my children's or grandchildren's time when the united states is a service and information economy when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries when awesome technological powers are in the hands of very few and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority when clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes our critical faculties in decline unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true we slide almost without noticing back into superstition and darkness it's chilling stuff isn't it i mean in many ways sagan's foreboding about america feels like a description of the state of america today here are a few points that stand out to me personally wealth and technological power is largely controlled by the super rich few not the rest of us many of our government representatives can't grasp the issues just like many of us and so many of us are so far removed from the knowledge required to question those in authority that we heat praise on temperamental unqualified abusive authoritarians while mocking the guidance of seasoned experts who have made careers of improving human life multi-level marketing schemes peddling snake oil are running rampant and preying on people in crisis people are legitimately worried about 5g towers giving them cancer and anti-vax conspiracies are so popular that some people think that a worldwide pandemic is just a front for the us government's mission of mind controlling us all through a vaccine it really feels sometimes like we're slipping back into darkness so how did carl sagan predict all of this well despite what plenty of viral posts about this quote have said this was never intended as a prediction this was sagan simply expressing concern about the future and if we read further in this part of the demon-hunted world we see that he formed his concerns based on the events and attitudes of his own time let's take a look at the passage directly following the excerpt we already examined the dumbing down of america is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media the 30 second sound bites now down to 10 seconds or less lowest common denominator programming credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance as i write the number one video cassette rental in america is the movie dumb and dumber beavis and butthead remains popular and influential with young tv viewers the plain lesson is that studying and learning not just of science but of anything are avoidable even undesirable we've arranged a global civilization in which most crucial elements transportation communications and all other industries agriculture medicine education entertainment protecting the environment and even the key democratic institution of voting profoundly depend on science and technology we have also arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology this is a prescription for disaster we might get away with it for a while but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces media influence was a great concern of his now every older generation bemoans the vapid or toxic nature of every new generation's popular media but i don't think the inclusion of this point was just an excuse forsaken to say back in my day media was better no it serves to make a valid point popular media in its attempt to garner as much immediate attention as possible purposely caters to the lowest common denominator in doing so it propagates falsehoods far better than truth and fosters dangerously short attention spans and its most regular consumers in an age where we are increasingly dependent on powerful technologies whose basis is found in a body of knowledge gained from centuries of rigorous scientific research widespread ignorance of or indifference toward that body of knowledge and research process could spell disaster i mean it could be well argued that scientific ignorance among both politicians and the general public resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of americans in 2020 alone celebrations of ignorance were unfortunately common in sagan's time and they've persisted into hours realistically parallels could be found between the original passage in question and the state of america in any given year so why upon a google search of carl sagan's foreboding does it seem that this passage has received most of its viral attention in the last three to four years my guess is that many of us are hearing what sagan called the siren song of unreason a bit more loudly in the past few years due to circumstances which have long been known to turn up its volume to see what i mean take a look at another excerpt from chapter 2 of the demon haunted world for much of our history we were so fearful of the outside world with its unpredictable dangers that we gladly embraced anything that promised to soften or explain away the terror i worry that especially as the millennium edges nearer pseudoscience and superstition will seem year by year more tempting the siren song of unreason more sonorous and attractive where have we heard it before whenever our ethnic or national prejudices are aroused in times of scarcity during challenges to national self-esteem or nerve when we agonize about our diminished cosmic place and purpose or when fanaticism is bubbling up around us then habits of thought familiar from ages past reach for the controls you know i think it's safe to say that in 2020 our ethnic and national prejudices have been aroused we face challenges to national self-esteem and fanaticism has gone from bubbling up around us to aggressively boiling over of course we're clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes our crystals being paranoid political and religious conspiracy theories and horoscopes being the soothed saying of corrupt political and religious leaders i mean a lot of us do literally take to the pseudoscience of crystals and astrology but you know what i'm getting at we're living in a time so uncertain and seemingly perilous that even some of the most wonderful caring and intelligent people we know our parents our friends our partners are reaching out desperately for a sense of hope and security only to find its cheap imitation in the form of pseudoscience and unreason but the chapter we've been examining is titled science and hope so i'd be remiss if i didn't discuss how sagan said we should address the problem and find hope in reality with the aid of science at the end of this chapter he gave four reasons why he thought science should be conveyed to the masses both through educational institutions and popular media one science has proven to be a force which can lift developing nations out of poverty current scientific developments drive economies forward and past developments are what allow our current civilization and economies to exist in the first place this is why sagan mentions so many science-based professions like medicine and engineering are in american universities pursued by people from developing regions they understand that science can not only improve the lives of individuals but of entire communities two science can be used to understand the dangers of all of our global innovations and technologies so that before we nuke ourselves into a permanent winter or pollute so badly that we destroy our own ecosystem we can know the perils ahead and avoid them three science has a lot to say about humanity's biggest questions where did we come from what is our nature where have we been what's our future what's the fate of our universe across the globe for millennia mythology and metaphysics have attempted to answer these questions but science can provide more reliable answers maybe science can provide us with a better understanding of our cosmic context than any other institution we've developed four widespread scientific values can lend stability as well as progress to democracies science respects no authority it empowers anyone who learns it not a select group it encourages the free exchange of ideas constructive debate well-reasoned arguments rigorous standards of evidence and honesty it can prevent us from being taken advantage of by hucksters it can also show us when we've been kidding ourselves and need to make course corrections while in the hands of a few science can lead to oppressive imbalances of power in the hands of many it can empower and provide balance for us all understanding all of this can give us hope even in times as strange as these the tools we need for a brighter future are right there ready to be put to use but unfortunately as sagan notes many times throughout the demon haunted world those tools are often inaccessible to many and many who can access them forsake them for the immediate comforts of mysticism and pseudoscience allow me to show some optimism here though while science denial is very apparent in our culture subcultures which value scientific thinking do exist and they're becoming ever more accessible in sagan's time if you wanted to learn about human evolution for instance you had just a few options you could consult the limited relevant literature available at a public library assuming you even have access to one you could wait for a special to come on pbs or wait for a lecture to be held within commuting distance if you had a ton of cash to spare you could find a university which taught courses on the subject enroll and move there to attend today though well just find a stable internet connection and do some digging if you want or need reliable sources curated for and presented to you there are dozens of popular youtube channels that do just that seriously there are so many pbs produced channels alone all hosted by experts with relevant expertise that i couldn't even name them all from world history to computer science to ancient mythology to biology to psychology to quantum physics it's all accessible to a majority of the developed world and a rapidly growing portion of the developing world and you know one of the best things about all this being knowledgeable about these topics being what plenty of people would call a nerd is in some expanding cultural circles kind of cool i don't see scientific literacy becoming entirely mainstream anytime soon but because of the internet reputable and increasingly diverse science communicators are finding increasingly diverse highly engaged audiences watching instantly accessible educational videos for fun is just a thing that many young people today grow up doing and i think that has an impact by the way i think that if it wasn't for carl sagan and andrean trying to make science education fun and accessible for everyone even kind of a form of entertainment you know i'm not sure that all of these channels would exist through their writing tv specials like cosmos and even movies like contact carl sagan and andrean inspired a movement of sorts that i think we're still seeing continue today i'll be honest and admit my own bias toward the effectiveness of online science advocacy though see i didn't grow up with access to anything like the educational resources i utilized today and neither did my family as a result i grew up as a climate change denying academia-hating young earth creationist one of the only reasons i was able to find my way out of that is that when i was in college john and hank green worked with pbs to launch youtube channels that became popular you might know them as scishow and crash course their videos allowed me to take my own first steps out of superstition and darkness so i tend to think that making science education accessible and even enjoyable to the masses as sagan champion is a way to ward off the demons that begin to stir in times of fear and crisis if you've been impressed by carl sagan's ability to describe the troubles of today far in advance then take the time to learn about his proposed solution for those troubles the siren song of pseudoscience will always be around to tempt us but it's my intention to make scientific thinking just so commonplace that the demons of our past lose their grip and darkness gives way to a little bit of hope thanks for watching the demon haunted world might just be my favorite book and when newer skeptics ask me where they should start reading to get a handle on how to identify pseudoscience i always recommend it i've found no other piece of literature more comprehensive or more moving in teaching the tools of scientific skepticism now whether you take my next recommendation or not please do take this one and read this book in some form if you haven't already that said if you'd like to listen to the audiobook which is excellent by the way i've listened to it multiple times just airing quarantine you can do so for free with a 30-day free trial from audible click my link in the description and pinned comment that's audibletrial.comgmskeptic and you'll get that free trial while directly supporting my channel in the process but again regardless of whether or not you use my affiliate link please do just read this freaking book like there's a reason carl sagan has a place in all of my videos all right thanks again guys i've been drew a genetically modified skeptic a special thanks to my patrons for their constant love and support if you want to hear more from me subscribe and follow me on social media at the handles below as always if you're an apostate in need there are resources linked in the description to help you find community and mental health support remember to be kind to others in the comments and until next time stay skeptical

Channel: Genetically Modified Skeptic

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Keywords: atheism, atheist, agnostic, skeptic, skepticism, genetically modified skeptic, gm skeptic, Carl Sagan, The Demon Haunted World, Did Carl Sagan predict the future, Science denial, conspiracy theories, Demon Haunted World review, Ann Druyan, carl sagan predict 2020, i have a foreboding, saganism, science and hope, carl sagan quote

Id: LNQtB5sL9F4

Length: 14min 42sec (882 seconds)

Published: Sat Sep 26 2020

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