How Bitcoin hits $12M w Robert Breedlove: Bitcoin, Cash, CBDC's, Gold, Threats, Cycles + Society

i am absolutely honored to have mr robert breedlove here with me i always refer to as robert as my bitcoin aristotle and how are you today sir i'm doing great thanks for having me awesome well we are here today because as i mentioned you are my bitcoin aristotle you are an entrepreneur a writer a philosopher you're an advocate of cryptocurrencies you're very famous in the cryptosphere and i've been watching a lot of your content i've read your book and everything else so mr breedlove is the founder of parallax digital he also has a podcast called what is money please subscribe all the links are below and subscribe to his channel and read all of his materials i mean once you start going down the breed love rabbit hole you can never get back out at least that's the case with me they are fascinating and i find at least the way robert thinks and the way i think are very similar and we're going to prove that i'm going to do something i've never done before but we're going to do some modeling live in a video together and he's never seen this model so we'll see where that takes us so this is going to be a fascinating conversation we're going to delve into the battle between kind of mathematics which is my background macro my background and gravity where it's going to take us and what we can model out and how we believe bitcoin can go to astronomically high heights so with that i'm going to ask you your first question and i hope it's okay to call you robert of course awesome so as a quick intro to my audience could you tell us how you fell into the bitcoin rabbit hole sure i will keep it brief my background is in accounting and finance master's degree in accounting and finance straight out of school i was involved with an accounting firm so we we focused on tax strategy for high net worth individuals and investment partnerships so i really got to see how the game was played um at a deep level as far as preserving and uh preserving capital and optimizing income i quickly decided that uh that linear career path was not for me i'm much more entrepreneurial so i shifted gears and became a tech focused cfo for most of my career and it was in that process you know i had heard about bitcoin in 2014 but like many people i just wrote it off i think my general conception was that bitcoin sounded like version one of what would later become something meaningful you know like version 50. i hadn't i just hadn't done the deep dive um i always kick myself about that too because i was arguing about the inevitability of digital currency but i hadn't looked into bitcoin deep enough to really grok it so to speak um so fast forward to 2000 and i had launched my own business which was pretty much just kind of like a cfo consulting business but i had also been studying crypto throughout i was studying technology businesses more generally but um when i stumbled across the work of nick zabo who had written about smart contracts in the late 90s that was my light bulb moment was that the entire finance industry is this intermediate layer between buyers and sellers it makes up you know i forget the numbers now but i think it's north of 20 of us gdp and this entire industry was set to be devoured well we'll say partially devoured at least by this up-and-coming technology um and so that was my light bulb moment is that a lot of the the function that finance was providing was going to be eaten by software and that's when i started which was a which funny enough was ethereum's marketing campaign that really got me into that because when i saw ethereum advertising smart contracts i'm like what the hell's a smart contract i started doing my homework i land on zabo i'm like okay this is a big deal i'm going to start investing in kind of the top market cap weighted crypto assets and then like where my money went my mind followed essentially and so while studying the space i became enamored with austrian economics i felt like i had discovered mathematics um even though you got a finance background yeah well it's a rediscovery it's incredible because you don't get one stitch of education about austrian economics in the keynesian curriculum that we all come through yep um but it's it's so you know that's a whole rabbit hole in and unto itself but when i say it's like discovering mathematics i mean that because it's based on axiomatic presuppositions whereas keynesian economics is much more empirical and totally detached from that that a priori uh epistemology so through my study of crypto assets and austrian economics i had already had i i forgot to mention this but i had background knowledge about central banking so i knew the problems there i didn't realize bitcoin plugged the gap and austrian economics was my own the gap in my own understanding so once i had that piece in place everything crystallized and i realized that bitcoin was a disruptor frankly to gold and central banking um my my company at the time too we i went from consulting into kind of hedge fund uh operations and we were running a multi-strategy crypto asset fund for a while but as my investment thesis became more narrowly focused on bitcoin my portfolio construction reflected that and then finally uh in 2020 which was transformational for a lot of people i decided that trying to outperform the best performing asset in human history was uh really hard in a lot of ways bitcoin was our benchmark frankly and uh as a result of really there's this quote i've mentioned it before but i'll say it again that i heard this quote from h.g wells that civilization is a race between education and catastrophe and uh also i'll credit to my interactions with saylor he has a he's a passion for education as well i just decided i wanted to point myself into this asset class completely as in you know reading writing talking about it instead of trying to outperform it which just seems crazy you know you can just hold it and um do pretty damn well what were you what were you thinking in end of march april 2020 when you saw the money printing begin were you there like saying are you kidding me because when when i saw that happening i've been deep into bitcoin since 2017 a year after you and i was fascinated by its basic minimal supply and the fact it was deflationary and i've been modeling deflationary bitcoin for the longest time and i said wow this thing's going to pop one day you know once people catch on and i didn't really believe it had such a future up until i saw the crazy money printing happening in april 2020. so what were you doing at that time were you sitting in a chair and saying i can't believe this or a couple of things so first of all i have a young daughter and so when that the pandemic started to really take hold or at least what we thought at the time was this pandemic it seemed like the world was potentially on the edge of something really dark yeah so i was actually initially very shaken in my bitcoin thesis not because i was worried about bitcoin at all but i thought the world was literally about to just come unglued so i thought bitcoin was gonna um potentially go under the back burner why you know this pandemic worked its way through the world but as soon as you know after a few weeks and we started to see some data say okay this thing is just a flu basically you know according to the data and i'm seeing the expansionary response i'm like oh my god this is the big one right and then that's when i started putting out some analysis um because bitcoin is accorded to these four-year having cycles its price tends to peak roughly 510 days on average after each having and i started to chart out the next anticipated peak which is actually right around now it's quarter four 2021 and mapping that onto the expected inflationary pressures from u.s dollar production which is also right around now takes about 18 months for these things to wash through the system that's when i had to revisit my original price projection for this cycle and uh and augment it upwards and yeah it's it's for someone who has been barking up this tree for a long time i've been you know saying that state money doesn't work and it inevitably collapses and it collapses catastrophically typically that's what hyperinflation is this entire event has still seemed sudden to me it's amazing how quickly things have moved yeah um so i can only imagine what other people that that don't look deeply into this are feeling well it's funny because i was there i spent a lot of my time all of 2020 anybody who met me and said oh no he's going to start talking about bitcoin again yeah and all i want to do is get my friends and family i said buy one per child just and then put it away just forget about it you know wait 10 years that was my whole kind of pitch and i was very unsuccessful so i put a video together but when i saw april 2020 happening after march and the meeting of lockdowns and i saw the money printing and i was very familiar with the halving cycle i said this is a perfect storm and that's when i i anticipated about 18 months before that sent up a financial crisis i believe in seven to nine year cycles and we were like in 10 years of expansion i said something's got to give here i was expecting something completely different but i was in a heavy cash position when it did hit so i was fortunate to be able to get into everything that was a complete fire sale i remember i was actually physically doing a job and uh locked my office door and i was just buying call options and selling books like crazy it was just a very weird time but uh anyway so that that's that's awesome so congratulations on your daughter that's super exciting and that brings me to triggers another question in my mind is how would you explain bitcoin to a 10 year old or charlie munger and 160 characters or less that is a great question um i think maybe the simplest way to describe i don't know if this is the simplest actually but i think it's the most poignant at least is that it's incorruptible money right throughout all of human history we have been creating the social institutions or these symbolic canopies under which we organize ourselves whether this is a religion a nation state human rights any this this gets to yuval harari's book sapiens where he talks about imagined orders right this is the distinct evolutionary advantage that humans have over other all other animals that we can organize ourselves flexibly in large numbers and it's done through this ability to to tell and believe stories the problem has been you know with every great civilization is that we end up corrupting the money those that get into a position of power forcefully monopolize the money they then debase it to their own benefit until the trust is diluted sufficient sufficiently within civilization that it collapses and this is very obvious if you consider what's going on in venezuela today like people like what do you mean trust and money what's the relationships like when you hyperinflate the currency it loses all meaning right that the money loses its ability to enable social cohesion so in venezuela today there's cash clogging you know the gutters in the streets and people are starving and people are eating cats and dogs like it's very barbaric so there's this direct correlation between the integrity of the money supply and the integrity of a civilization you cannot have one without the other and another way to think about this is property rights right but you know money is the most important property right and if you debase that then you're debasing the foundation of civilization it's like people cannot trade and cooperate at scale therefore they're forced into these barbaric means of survival the problem across all human history is that we whoever gets in power gives into the temptation to debase and corrupt the money supply which implodes the civilization the fall of the roman empire going all the way yes yeah and i realize now that i'm not at all giving you a good simple charlie monger or 10 year old answer but i think that's the way you have to think about it is you need you know in the same way we have standard weights and measurements for every other unit right the kilogram the meter if these things fluctuated arbitrarily like depending on what jurisdiction you're operating in like if the king gets to say the meter is longer or shorter how can we ever have coordination at scale we could never have a global division of labor planes without the florida exactly exactly so the whole machinery of global commerce is premised on immutable standards yeah but the one place we've never had an immutable standard is money so maybe that's the short simple answer is you could think of bitcoin as the metric system of money something like that yeah i like to use the word trustless as well i did an interview with this group that helps people that are human trafficked to give them hope and i always say bitcoin is hope usual stuff but how people have been betrayed in the worst possible form they need something trustless that they can trust if that makes sense yeah and that's that's kind of how i position i like that word kind of that it's a trustless form of money yeah and people get confused by that because people think trust is a good thing we need trust but um this actually gets back to nixabo's work where he talks about money as an instrument of trust minimized exchange right if you and i if we don't know each other i don't know your reputation or your background we can still do business together if i transfer you bitcoin or transfer you gold that's a trust minimized means of inter-operating you don't need to know me or my reputation or my background if i've provided you money the problem with fiat currency central banking in general is that you're always forced to trust the issuer right we need to trust they won't debase the money they want to enforce capital controls they won't de-authorize the money like we've seen the 500 rupee banknote in india just turned off overnight i mean this is not it's not trust minimized so therefore it doesn't work as money and that's why fiat currency always collapses you've triggered another question in my mind and it ties back to what you're talking about and and something that i have a hard time understanding is why are any ties in exactly what we're talking about why are non-believers non-believers like the the people out there that are just violently opposed to bitcoin even though they now kind of realize how important it is but is that a personality flaw or is it just stubbornness or is just people want to hold on to whatever scruples they believe they have this is a big question i posed something similar to sailor actually and he had a great response that a profound idea can only propagate so quickly through the human mind effectively our collective human mind i think that that really hits the nail on the head um i would take it a step further and say that it's almost as if we've only had approximations of money up until the invention of bitcoin and i could explain this through uh the austrian lens that so if we look at gold for instance has a 10 trillion dollar market cap roughly 2 trillion of that market cap is the result of demand for gold as an industrial metal right its use in electronics dentistry etc the other 8 trillion of its market cap is reservation demand for its uses money so the market cap of any asset is split between its utility value or industrial value and its marketability or exchange value or monetary value every every asset first of all exhibits some monetary premium typically like if someone's holding it not to use it but anticipation of trading it for something else that would be monetary premium gold is just the asset that had the greatest monetary premium historically that's why it was money bitcoin is the first monetary technology that is pure monetary premium right it has no industrial use whatsoever so it's it's the it's like the invention of money in a lot of ways like we thought gold was money and gold has been money but it was like you know today again it's 80 money it's 80 money 20 industrial metal so i think that maybe we are a bit more bullish on our own civilization like we think we're really modern and sophisticated and civilized but i think we've just now discovered this incorruptible base layer that lets us scaffold ourselves to what civilization really can be right we're getting toward closer toward the laissez-faire libertarian view of the world that if we have less coercion we have more wealth creation but that just has not been possible historically because of the incentives related to money you know gold was a rough analog approximation of this but we figured out a way to corrupt that too right we figured a way to corner the market on gold we figured a way to uh manipulate it manipulate it to sever mass to sever the population's access to gold right we kind of impose this well currency is introduced as a convenience mechanism for gold initially to make it more portable but then again the issuer or the custodian of the gold which is today the central bank has every incentive to hoard that gold and sever uh access to it for everyone else so it's you know how can i put in a nutshell human beings are i'll use the word sinful you could say self-interested as well and we need these protocols that protect the collective interest from individuals establishing a predator and prey relationship right if you could get on the other side of a central bank and become a central bank shareholder you have every incentive to do that because you now have a perpetual profit um and we needed to have some pure money that couldn't be corrupted to prevent this predator-prey dynamic from emerging within our own species so that we can then focus all of our efforts towards productive cooperation well this this takes me directly into i know the direction we're going a little bit off the reservation you hope that's okay with regards to philosophy and macro how do you view how the central banks are operating today you mentioned central banks through cbdc adoption to me it seems like there's some type of arms race to have some type of tyrannical control over the populace as quickly as possible start it with china it's going to be followed by everybody else but first of all do you believe it is like that type of digital tyranny arms race and second of all do you think it's going to impact bitcoins decentralization and massive adoption that's going on right now well there's no question that the arms race to launch a cbdc is a direct response to the emergence of bitcoin i mean that that's painfully obvious there was no talk of a cbdc before bitcoin clearly um i think it is just the effort of central banks to upgrade the implementation of fiat currency in a way that gives them more control frankly um so fiat currency itself is tyrannical it's just this this effort to have a cbdc would just give central banks more transparency over uh frankly their how do we say this i would say over citizens but in the sense of fiat currency you're not technically a citizen you're more like a serf because you're forced to use a certain money they're able to depreciate it at will all of the costs of that depreciation are forcefully externalized onto you so another way to think about this this is a key point if your tax rate if your effective tax rate as a citizen quote unquote if it's 100 you're not a citizen you're a slave right all the fruits of your labor go to the authority whatever the authority is if your tax rate is zero percent you are a self-sovereign human you're completely free of coercion right anywhere you are on that continuum you're somewhere between self-sovereign citizen and slave and inflation is just taxation right so inflation's been this invisible way to toggle you closer to slavery and away from self-sovereign citizenry and i think the cbdc would just be the most direct means of ever accomplishing that and it gets a little more dystopian when you look at what they're doing in china that they're tying this whole thing together with a social credit scoring system putting it on a mobile app controlling what you can buy when you can buy it if you say the wrong things they'll turn off your money for certain types of purchases maybe they'll turn off travel yeah they block you from going on those if you that's right they'll block your internet access they'll block your media access they do public shaming on billboards so if you don't say the right thing then they'll shame you on a billboard and if you're a good peon for the state then maybe they'll glorify you on a billboard so this whole thing gets very orwellian orwellian and and you know the problem here is that and this i think this is the big transformation in consciousness actually is that the state views people as means rather than ends in themselves and we know that any good relationship you've ever had in life like it's reciprocal right if you treat someone as means they're going to immediately uh have a distinct negative response to you treating them that way if you say you're just this or you're just that you don't treat them as a a self-directed auto poetic individual right and understand that we have choice and consciousness then that relationship's going to deteriorate very quickly well that is exactly what the state does the state treats all human beings as a means to an end the end their end being taxation that is both fascinating and alarming and i know when people see this they're going to be like their whole perspective will shift as to where they are on that exact continuum as you talk about it it's kind of crazy so let's uh switch gears got a lot it's a lot of material do you believe we'll get off the cbdc stuff for a second do you believe bitcoin has any potential rival um i believe in free market competition but based on my study of monetary evolution historically bitcoin has perfected all of the properties of money that free market action has selected for so by all means go and launch a competitor do whatever you want you know i think there should be a free market in money free market and banking um but i i don't see a way i don't believe that satoshi left any design space for bitcoin to be disrupted and i've talked about this a lot on a lot of shows so i'll just mention it without going into it unless you want to but there's five things money should be doing there's five affordances money provides free market actors the visibility durability recognizability portability scarcity bitcoin essentially perfects all of these properties so and in the event that it did not for whatever reason bitcoin's open source code so it can adopt feature set from competitors yeah so the fact that bitcoin has a huge established network effect uh very significant first mover advantage in a multi-sided marketplace i don't see how it could be disrupted so if if related to that i know you said it's perfection there's no room for improvement but if there's one thing you could improve on bitcoin what would it be um well so here's one thing so the divisibility aspect of bitcoin right now each bitcoin is divisible into 100 million subunits there could come a time where that was not sufficient right if bitcoins eaten all the money in the world maybe one sat is not divisible enough for daily commerce right maybe a loaf of bread is half a sat something like that i spoke about something a couple weeks ago i talked about the concept of a sat scent i don't know if i'm ever going to pick up but like 100th of a sec yes yes it is very easily configurable on the platform exactly so that's one property of money that bitcoin technically hasn't perfected but it speaks to the the versatility of its open source code that it can just soft fork to have additional divisibility so i guess that would be one thing i'd point to if i could change one thing about bitcoin i don't know if it's really about bitcoin i would like to change people's understanding of money i mean that's what i'm trying to do uh are you one of those believers that believes that cryptocurrency should not be called currencies as a quasi-medium of exchange versus a store of value where do you lie on that continuum yeah so it depends on your definition of currency there's sort of two working definitions that i've encountered one is which money is circulating most widely and two is what money is authorized by government to be circulating widely so in the second sense of currency i think bitcoin kind of obliterates that concept you know this is the separation of money and state if you will this is a a non-state global digital asset so it really it obliterates the concept of government controlled currency it obliterates the concept of monetary policy um because these things become a product of free market selection not a product of imposition itself but if you're using the first definition of currency as in what money circulates most widely i do think bitcoin is destined to become that that's awesome so i've seen you on uh the kitko gold channel at least once or twice i think and i know you know central banks and i know you know history i know you know gold so i'm i'm kind of i wouldn't say i'm a student of history but i'm fascinated by certain things like collapse of civilization and world wars and what causes them to make sure they're not repeated but i also lived through the crisis of the 70s i remember as a child with my father we'd have to queue up at a gas station for hours and hours and prices were going through the roof so i was very young but i remember it distinctly like it was yesterday so if you uh look back at the crisis of the 70s and tying in the report from fidelity about the parallels between bitcoin today versus gold in the 70s and how oil and gold during the 70s it was very stagnationary period i believe we are six to 12 months away from stagflation here ourselves but that's a separate issue and do you believe we could be in that period where just like the 70s gold or the new gold digital gold i bitcoin will massively outshine bonds and equities i absolutely think bitcoin is going to continue to be the best performing asset for the next 15 years the same as it has been for the past 13. um you know the issue of you queuing up for gas with your father that's all a consequence of government intervention in the marketplace you'll never hear that story in mainstream media but all of these consequences are well interpreted through the austrian school right there's a direct a priori consequence to government intervention in the marketplace and it's typically surpluses or shortages depending if it's price ceilings or price floors so we're seeing a lot of intervention in the market right now and we're just starting to see the consequences of it right we're hearing that uh and this is a funny narrative that the supply chain disruptions are the cause for the transient inflation right but what is actually true is that government intervention in the market for money so the printing of money further intervention in uh the regulatory gatekeeping and supply chains is creating further disruption so yeah i think we're going to see really bad outcomes in all markets and the closer the market is to this state the worse it will be in terms of quality being deprecated and price being increased so healthcare is a great example right in the us very close to the state the cost has been exploding for a decade it's going to explode even more but the quality keeps declining because of all the the government intervention frankly and there's a great chart on this in a piece that i wrote where it shows the ratio of of administrators to health care providers i think i've seen something like that i think in the 70s it was around 8 to 1 maybe say 10 to 1 administrators to doctors right which sounds like a lot you're like okay healthcare it's like you go to see the doctor how many billing and ar clerks do you need behind the doctor today it's like eighteen hundred to one health care is not even health care anymore it's sick care right they're completely government intervention has completely destroyed the industry essentially and everyone is suffering the consequences of that so i think as government intervention and coercion escalates people are naturally going to demand coercion resistant money and marketplaces and i think bitcoin bitcoin's the only coercion resistant money i think those economies that start to standardize themselves to bitcoin will outperform those that do not and we're going to have this kind of darwinian shift away from government intervention away from markets where governments are intervening towards those um or less interventions possible yeah it's funny because i see i see the world i always said the future will be completely tokenized and put on the blockchain so it's immutable and verifiable just like just like bitcoin and there was a move to that in the news today with the associated press creating media on the blockchain so it is verifiable and get away from all the fake news kind of word of the past but back back to my original question though in terms of the 1970s gold rush gold spike you believe do you believe if you saw the fidelity report that there is parallels in the charts because they do look uncannily similar i think we are in a digital gold rush until the year 2035. um that is the year by which 99 of all the bitcoin will have been mined uh we're at a point now where there's such a significant information asymmetry that people still think bitcoin's a joke or they think it could fail or go to zero um and it's a you know what is it a 1.2 trillion dollar asset today like it's two and a half percent yeah so uh yes i think bitcoin is going to radically outperform everything i do think gold would do well as as well because it has a 5 000 year head start as hard money um you know central banks still actively acquire gold um so yeah i think in general the state is very uh the state hurts markets well i ran i i ran a model on gold because um a lot of the questions i always get is should i sell my gold and i go back to the last 11 years so if you look at you know gold has fallen by minus two percent minus three percent but if you calculate it on a purchasing power basis it's actually down about 41 42 percent so it's far more dramatic when you look at the macro backdrop that we have over the last 18 months it is perfect for gold and it continues to shrink and that leads me to kind of my next thought i want to bounce off you while we're on the topic of gold and digital gold etc do you believe you know people always talk about whale manipulation and market manipulation and bitcoin like it's the end of the world but hey have you seen other markets uranium copper gold silver these are all highly manipulated you know 100x the spot amount is paper um do you believe the whale manipulation will continue or that will move more towards the jp morgans of the world now that we have more future etfs and things like that a couple things so one what you just said about gold i think the reason its price is suppressed is because of the derivatives market frankly and there's a fundamental aspect here that when you are able to divorce in time trade and settlement right if i can represent something to you without having to pay you or settle with you i can play all kinds of games in between right we're back to finance being this intermediate layer between buyers and sellers gold again the technological shortcoming of gold is that it suffers in terms of portability this is the reason because gold is geopolitical prime money we have built all of these institutions on top of it is to try and create these layers of trust in an asset that's really hard to move over space and verify right to verify someone's gold holdings so there's a great book on this called gold wars i think by the author ferdinand lips and he goes through this whole history of uh what oh there's another website for this too gold antitrust gata.org gold antitrust action committee maybe but they go through this entire history of coordinated government action to suppress gold price um and this gets back to something alan greenspan said a long time ago that a sound store of value must be illegalized or manipulated by central banks otherwise fiat currency would be out competed so there are a lot this is why i always tell people like if you don't understand the games being played in money you are the game being played exactly 100 and so this whole again back to government's kind of waging war against entrepreneurship and markets like gold was the greatest most important market in the world for five thousand years it still is by the way they've just limited access to the citizens right they don't want citizens transacting in gold because gold acts as a check on government and this was a role that was filling historically where if a goal if a government was irresponsible with their monetary policy gold would flow out of that country so gold was a free market regulation mechanism on government itself this is why they commandeered it this is why they cornered the market on it um in terms of bitcoin yeah i think games will continue to be played uh so long as there's a high concentration of wealth people will play the game to their advantage as best that they can the bright the silver lining i guess you might say is that as bitcoin continues to monetize it becomes more widely distributed so there's less of an ability for whales to play these games and the the other benefit is that because bitcoin unifies trade and settlement that we it's very easy to settle with finality in bitcoin anywhere in the world 24x7 that it really closes the window for a lot of these uh these asymmetries and games to be played against others so you can think about final settlement being like the ability to call someone's bluff yeah it's really expensive to call someone's bluff and gold because gold's heavy and hard to move but in bitcoin you can do it 24x7 near instant right within the hour and at a very low cost yep excellent so let's uh switch gears for a second and i know one of the things that really got my attention was uh when you spoke of your 12 and a half million dollar price target through in 2031 and that was absolutely fascinating to me so much so that i actually built a model to try to replicate how you got to that number and and we're gonna we're gonna play with that in a little while but before we do and it'll be that'll be a first on youtube at least for me modeling in real time with somebody else chatting with through a zoom but it'll be cool but if we talk about your target that 12 and a half million dollars i calculated that's a 229x where we are today which is about a 70 cagr compound annual growth rate which is actually very reasonable and conservative you know the miracle of compounding we don't need to go there but uh if before we jump into the model what do you think will happen to the altcoin world and the reason i'm mentioning this to you because you triggered my thought on this when you mentioned you came into the rabbit hole through ethereum and smart contracts so do you believe you know imagine bitcoin dominance is forty nine point two percent today or something like that give or take point one percent do you believe it'll always be around fifty percent dominance and that means if bitcoin does go to twelve and a half million dollars this alt market if it does have 50 of the market cap it'll be huge too what's your take on that yeah so where do i start there with alt coins i'll start here bitcoin is the only asset that has provably achieved decentralization now there's a lot in that word but decentralization i think in its most simplistic form means that it is immune to the opinions of others or immune to politics immune to intervention right no other altcoin has achieved that all other altcoins are projects right there's some development team or institution or governing body that holds sway over the rules ceo yes exactly exactly so there's the old saying don't tell me what you think just tell me what's in your portfolio i i hold 100 bitcoin so i actually embarrass on a risk-adjusted return all altcoins in terms of bitcoin for this very reason that there hasn't been a market-proven use case for an altcoin you could argue ethereum was kind of like this ico vending machine um and they're all vulnerable to politics or opinion so i don't think that the altcoin market will track bitcoin i think that there is going to be a reckoning i don't know if it's sudden or gradual where most of these projects fail perhaps some of them succeed perhaps some of them find product market fit perhaps some of them achieve decentralization i'm not saying that it's impossible um but i i don't have a clear line of sight on how any of these projects do that whereas with bitcoin all it needs to do to succeed is exactly what it's been doing flawlessly for 13 years it just needs to continue to exist and it keeps appreciating in terms of dollars as less bitcoin is produced uh being priced in an expansionary dollar for instance yeah well that's interesting you say that because i i g the way i invest is i go after uh dominant players in markets that have a large totally dressful market and you started this conversation talking about the middlemen and uh 20 of us gdp is controlled by the middlemen smart contracts like ethereum salon etc they can disrupt that very quickly and easily so from my perspective i only focus on what i call scp plays so smart contract platforms and um i do believe of the 12 000 volts that are out there 95 to 99 will die over the next four to six years that's a given but there'll be a lot more innovation coming along in the meantime and what also blows me away is the pace of change of things in the space you know ethereum is there because they were the first mover but they have 20 other companies biting at their ankles and you know a smart contract platform that starts today will be finished in 12 months and it'll be faster maybe more decentralized maybe quicker settlement time etc than all the others so it's just it's it's to me it's a very fascinating world but i do agree with you there will be a reckoning but i do agree that this 50 ratio could play especially when you look at the 400 trillion addressable market for defy insurance banking asset management exchanges that's all disruptable i would really question how much of that market cap accretes to the token though i don't think it's a 400 trillion dollar market cap for the token oh no they just they just need one percent of that and i'm selling a revenue on a per year basis right okay that's fine so you're talking about more like 4 trillion whereas bitcoin is a 250 trillion ish addressable market so for me on a risk-adjusted basis i'm looking at bitcoin with no unsolved computer science problems fully decentralized nothing to do really other than continue to exist and it's a 250 to 200 250 x upside on bitcoin alone um that's very appealing to me and hard when you when you factor in the risk of everything we've just laid out hard for me to to sell any bitcoin to buy something else and i would add too that again because only bitcoin has achieved decentralization it seems logical to me that should any of these projects find product market fit it's very likely that that will be established on bitcoin in higher order protocols like rsk and things like this because if you exactly if you want something that's censorship resistant which you would want in decentralized finance you would want to build it on the most decentralized protocol exactly that's why i i've actually spent a lot of time studying the layer twos on top of bitcoin very fascinated by taproot coming down the line as well and i totally agree with you about the risk there's nothing the asymmetric bet of my lifetime is bitcoin that's why i am i'm not 100 but i'm more than 70 in that bank but the rest is kind of like speculative investments that's super interesting so on that note so what do you believe as we go up to say 12 and a half million dollars it goes back to risk in my background as financial risk management what do you believe is the biggest risk in bitcoin's ascendancy to 12 million over the next decade would that be cbdc's or governments or yeah so quantum computing um you know i categorize this into two compartments so one is the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns the known unknowns are i think predominantly the state response if bitcoin succeeds as we contemplate it succeeding it is the ultimate enemy of the state if you will right this is the separation of money and state this is an event unparalleled in history we've never had a technology that could uh as hayek put it be the sly roundabout way that that governments could not coerce or control so should it continue to succeed it's going to hit a threshold i don't know five trillion 10 trillion a market cap where it starts being taken seriously as an existential threat um i do believe that the incentives related to bitcoin will actually cause central banks nation states sovereign sovereign wealth funds to adopt it and buy it but there could be a period again due to this information asymmetry where maybe there's a few governments that think they can squash it or attack it or outlaw something i don't think that fight will be won by any state um and i think every state that chooses to be antagonistic towards bitcoin is actually just creating incentives for other states to be accommodative um but that's the big known unknown so that's coming i don't know you know don't know what it looks like necessarily probably going to be more like predatory taxation you know we've heard these rumors of taxing unrealized capital gains recently which is completely asinine um and my big message here to people is just like you cannot take for granted the stability we have had historically we are in totally transformational times like this is this is equivalent to the transition from the agricultural age into the industrial age is this shift from the industrial age into the digital age so you need to question everything to first principles uh you need to establish very secure philosophical anchorings to reality to deal with what's coming uh this is no joke you know so that's known unknowns and then unknown unknowns i would say i can't even talk about they're black swans right yep the protocol could have some debilitating failure that nobody could foresee there could be some cosmological or natural disaster that wiped out electronics or something to that effect so you mentioned something going from the agricultural age the industrial age to the uh becoming every exact words digital digital but even before that uh you remember the henry ford quote basically turning money into energy standard value for the system was a certain amount of energy exerted for every one hour to equal to one dollar what i can't remember his exact wordings but he basically over 100 years ago envisioned bitcoin yes and you talk about when you talk about your known unknowns it takes me back to even if you look at a state by state like the u.s you have states like new york that are just bearing their head in the sand because they have to preserve their core financial services industry and then you've got states like texas that are just going whole hog wyoming straight yeah right how much excess energy does texas have to monetize into bitcoin solar wind they got it all yeah exactly versus the business model the incumbent business model financial services under threat in new york so they're enforcing things like bit license or whatever that's the dynamic that will play out yep it's uh fascinating so okay now um in the context before we jump into the model time which i'm really excited about i hope it doesn't blow up on us um if you have you ever modeled things out like what what the world would look like in terms of the cost of a loaf of bread in us dollar terms if bitcoins at 12 and a half million dollars or an ounce of gold or any of that have you done that modeling as well i have maybe it'll be helpful here if i walk you through a bit of this thesis because i think it'll frame up the model nicely too so i think the us is in 2021 on equivalent monetary footing to france in 1791 yeah i'll try to go through this a little bit quickly but i've studied a number of fiat currency inflations and i think this one was useful in that it's somewhat recent in the scope of world history and it also the rates of change um are pretty on par with where we are today so i'll try to explain in 1791 uh france had been expanding its money supply 300 uh in the years leading up to 1791 and then it began expanding its money supply 18 per year in 1792. so and this was the whole assignment craze and whatnot there's a great book on this called fiat currency inflation in france people are interested uh so 18 per year is their money supply expansion rate i could say that's conservative conservatively where we are today uh but the reality is it's more like 40 per year right now in the wake of covid now a lot of people argue and say oh that was just special circumstances it will come back down maybe they're right but it's well north of 18 per year and it was 7 per year prior to coven in 1794 france had another economic crisis they had to double their money supply issuance rate to 35 percent and then a year later they had to double it again i'm sorry they quadrupled it to 145 percent so the the the law at work here is the law of operating issuance and depreciation so the more credit money you put into the system the more future demand you're creating for dollars right it's fiat currency induces indebtedness and indebtedness requires more money to satisfy the debts so you get into this debt spiral when fiat currency inflation hits a certain rate and so in the us today from 2001 to 2020 we've expanded the money supply 250 percent we're currently accelerating we're currently expanding the money supply like i said conservatively around 18 a year i think we have to double that again following the next crisis which i have it in 2024 but i agree with you could be sooner more like a stagflation coming in 2022 2023 and then i think by 2030 we'll have another crisis that will force us to quadruple it to 145 so i think that's kind of the spectrum where the u.s aligns with with france and so what what this means by 2031 the usm2 will have expanded to greater than 500 trillion dollars this is roughly 25x in 10 years i think during this time a lot of weaker international currencies will collapse into the dollar but they'll also be collapsing the bitcoin as fiat currencies fail people are going to dollarize or they're going to bitcoin eyes so global m2 according to my target by 2031 is 250 trillion dollars that's 1.25 quadrillion dollars which is 12x what it is today so if bitcoin is 20 of global purchasing power at that point that implies that bitcoin's market cap in 2031 will be 250 trillion dollars in nominal dollars but if we adjust that for 20 uh 2021 dollars that's only a 20 trillion dollar market cap for bitcoin so this would imply a bitcoin price in nominal dollars of 12.5 million per coin but in today's purchasing power that would only be equivalent to 1 million dollars in today's purchasing power well this is the most unbelievable segue so as you may know i'm a model guy i model everything i can get my hands on and i try to back into a model when i try and figure out exactly how much bitcoin will be worth when it goes up so can you see my spreadsheet yes okay so uh let me try and explain this actually i put to get a little deck for the viewers as well so first of all uh let's get let's play with numbers uh so there's only this very very basic model but i have a couple of parameters in here that can be modified in you and i can play with these live we have our first of all the money printing acceleration rate which is this almost sounds so contrived the way you laid out the french model was it eighteen percent thirty four percent of one etc so i have that but it's not in chunks it's it's not discrete it's linear so we we can't tweak that right now then i have the printing money printing expansion rate parameter we can play with you know the history of seven percent or 25 or 40 percent i think some of those numbers are very easily uh justified then i have a concept i call this purchasing power which is the debasement expansion so if you add 100 of money you get 60 of that back in inflation and you don't get it all because of the cantillon effect and the delays etc etc then i have two things just so we can so people can wrap their heads around what we're talking about that's not a loaf of bread or a piece of gold it's a million dollar home and a 60 000 bitcoin okay so let's jump into uh the models themselves and play with them so this one is what i call my base case this takes us up to my bear case for bitcoin in nominal dollar terms in the year 2030 of 846 but it's interesting because the further we go the more hockey stick we get obviously because of the compound effect of things so with this i assume the money printing expansion is only 12 you said it's historically seven percent of the last 20 years that's right so 12 that takes into account you know there's no way they can go from 40 to 18 months and taper it back down to 12 percent that was typically never goes down now people argue that 2020 was an exception that it will go down sure but it was 40 in 2020 yeah they'll never be able to go under that as far as i'm concerned um then you have the accelerating parameter this kicks in in 2024 onwards so that 12 per year gets accelerated by a factor of 1.1 every year up to 2031 then the purchasing power debasement 60 we can play with the 60 we can modify it up we can call it 70 but i think 60 is very conservative so you can see that based on this money supply expansion a hundred dollars today will be worth 47 in the year 2031. less than half which is also very conservative and if you look at the price of apples or blueberries in the store today you can see they've doubled in a year yep then you have the value of a million dollars of cash this will go to back to the 47 and be 473 000 and this is very important one of the things we try and get across in this channel is you know to achieve financial freedom you can't make financial mistakes and a lot of people on the cusp of retirement they're signing you know three hundred thousand dollar five hundred thousand dollars three percent annuities which is not enough to survive on based on this money expansion and inflation that we're going to see then we have the home normal expansion rate which is 4.8 which is 40 of the expansion rate 12 percent so it's less than the inflation rate so we're seeing that today we're seeing inflation as far as i'm concerned way north of 15 20 and home inflation on average has been 20 year-over-year but it's also a very special circumstance and then bitcoin this number here is very important i assume super conservatively the compound annual growth rate over the next 10 years of 33 and that'll take us to 1.1 million dollars nominal terms would be worth 533 in purchasing power terms in 2031. that's the base model and there's some charts here log chart and otherwise just so people can wrap their heads around what's going on this is my expected case scenario i expect again conservatively the 10 acceleration 15 expansion which translates to nine percent debasement super conservative your million dollar home will be worth one point seven nine million dollars in nominal terms but only 697 in real terms which people sometimes get fooled by say oh my house is now worth a million bucks it's not and your bitcoin will go to 1.4 million or my target is 1 million dollars by 2030 but that's really only worth 442 thousand dollars now let's go play with your model this is kind of what i'm trying to back into and see if you and i can agree and if we are we're 10 years ahead of our time we'll be able to say well so this is this is very entertaining for me um so let's say we have the uh money and let me know if you want to tweak any of these numbers uh we have the m2 expansion rate 35 would you like to take that down take it up no i mean this is actually what it is today and historically it does not contract okay and then the 10 acceleration that's conservative yeah what you said earlier is correct that this model presumes it is continuous my model thinks well it conceives of it coming in discrete chunks because the money supply expansion rate is increased when there's an economic shock so i think it's fine for now um you you had numbers on your total m2 money supply so it goes from 20.79 trillion and then this model up to 985 trillion called out a quadrillion that was way lower than yours wasn't it uh no i think my my global m2 was 1.25 okay quadrillion so it was about 25 higher than that but i'm not sure was this is okay so we can and then we basically double it for the world yes well the thing is though that the us dollar becomes a higher proportion of global m2 during this transition as well because you have weaker international currencies failing and they dollarize okay so we probably need to tweak that for the world but then the uh debasement being 60 of the 35 goes to 21 that's basically everybody your inflation rate and we are seeing that and we're seeing a lot higher than that in rents in lumber in coffee and it next year it's going to be bad too because the supply chain problems we are facing right now every time there's a boat stuck at a port price goes up that's right and there's a hundred of them off of long beach right now um then we have the home appreciation so your million dollar home will go to 3.7 million dollars but that's only worth 351k in real terms and this is the shocker that people yes have to wrap the illusion this is the illusion this is the central bank computer virus that is installed in all of our minds when we think through dollars right you would look at this in nominal terms and think you were doing exceedingly well your million dollar home has become 3.7 million dollars but i guarantee you that the world around you will reflect this decimation in purchasing power right so you think that your your actual you actually lost 65 of the value in your home in real terms you'll see that reflected in price increases and everything else exactly and then to back into your 12 and a half million dollars i didn't get quite right but that's approximately a nominal appreciation of bitcoin of 69.5 percent takes us to 12 and a half million dollars and the real value in purchasing power terms is 1.169 what was your 2031 target in real purchasing power terms uh it was 12.5 and 1 million i should say that the numbers i used in that particular demonstration were rounded off so this might be right on okay so are we saying we agree this model yes appears to reflect um what the way i had looked at it before um the only other thing i would add here is again we have this smooth presumption in the money printing acceleration rate that doesn't happen continuously the other thing i would add is that as this process unfolds people are going to continually witness fiat currencies being decimated in their local economy and i think that once one country or one any it doesn't have to be an entire country any economic cohort that moves to bitcoin and benefits as a result of that transition right say they're selling out of their venezuelan boulevard and getting into bitcoin and then they're benefiting over the next 10 years they're setting a precedent and example for other economic cohorts to follow so that's the and you can't hide that so governments historically have been able to hide this is you know all fiat currencies are being debased in concert so it's really hard to see which one is that they're all getting worse right we think you're just denominating everything in dollars there's no there's no truthful barometer for the debasement of fiat currency gold was supposed to be that but as we've touched on earlier it's heavily suppressed in the derivatives markets you can think of bitcoin as like an irrepressible barometer for the debasement of fiat currency i think this is going to be a pretty shining evident um example of what's really going on in the world as you see the bitcoin price rocketing up amid all this economic chaos people are going to wise up to what is money how am i getting screwed et cetera et cetera exactly and the other thing that people don't realize is how scarce this is i always say they'll never be more than 14 million bitcoin and the big money is just arriving the pensions are just arriving the sovereigns haven't even begun yet i mean it is uh that's right a lot of asymmetry here for sure okay this is awesome you know what we should do is i'll kick the model over to you maybe we'll expand global money supply make it a little more sophisticated we talk about the fold-ins and movement from other currencies etc and maybe we can add those staggered steps like we had in france in the 1700s and you asked earlier uh in my model i had at the end the 2031 gold being worth about twenty nine thousand dollars per ounce twenty thousand okay and a loaf of bread about forty dollars where it's two dollars two dollars and fifty cents today i'm gonna write that go great that's awesome okay so let's get back now we're going to go through what i call the quick fire round hopefully um and otherwise we'll be here for the next 24 hours chatting about stuff so let's talk a quick fire and this will be real easy ones and i'm going to hit you hard so you ready ready okay so what's your take on the plan b stock to flow model and as cross asset model do you believe not believe or do you believe they break down once fiat goes down all models are wrong some are useful most are dangerous so i think it's interesting how closely it as it has adhered historically but i would not expect it to adhere forever awesome okay is there a danger and this is probably a large part of my concern and what kind of keeps me awake at night because we want to give back and make the world a better place but do you believe there's a danger that bitcoin could destabilize society into a new world what i call the haves and the have-nots you look at the two and a half percent that have adopted bitcoin they're going to be set the 97.5 that haven't they're going to be stuck under the tyranny of fiat paying taxes etc how do you see that shaking out and you think that could be a problem well we're already there there's already a significant cohort of the haves versus the have-nots um that divergence in this cr this wealth disparity is created through central banking and fiat currency or we would say exacerbated at least by the way um unequal distribution of wealth is a normal outcome of capitalism right we're all different we'll have different skills luck know-how all the things but central banking exacerbates it it's actually it's anti-robin hood right we're stealing from the poor and the those living on fixed income and reallocating that to to asset owners so i would expect that the faster bitcoin monetizes the more disproportionate the resultant wealth hierarchy is the slower it monetizes the more equally distributed bitcoins becoming over time so i think it's definitely a function of how fast it monetizes but the last piece that's really important is that even if it monetizes very quickly and the wealth distribution globally is very divergent those with wealth will not have a mechanism to prey on those that don't as they do today bitcoin changes the incentive structure inherent to human action where it's really hard you can't inflate it really hard to tax really hard to steal in general so it's going to reorient human action towards long-term fruitful and productive relationships yeah and it's also definancing the war machine right central banks print money to go to war this is how world war one and world war ii happened because the fiat currency spigot gives government a virtually limitless source of resources to wage war beyond the confines of their own balance sheet which historically and a gold standard like you go to war war is very expensive someone gets on rough economic footing they cut a deal there's peace there's armistice with fiat currency we've expanded the scope and duration of war in a way that's never never before been possible so i think bitcoin fixes that as well which is really good for for everyone so speaking of that do you believe and i'm hoping i do believe that bitcoin will give many people a chance who wouldn't otherwise have a chance of being born into riches et cetera there's a there's a joke right now in bitcoin circles that bitcoin's an iq test right like those that do the homework and understand uh the first principles of money are the first to sit down at the table they benefit disproportionately to later adopters are you saying it's darwinian like everything it is darwinian okay but in this case there's no the element of corruption has been removed right it's it's if you could think of the central bank as a predatory institution and it's preying on people's ignorance of money or their passivity in relation to money uh bitcoin is an incorruptible institution so yes it's darwinian in the sense that if you adopt early when no one what did sailors say that if you wait till everyone understands it you won't be able to afford it so if you buy if you do the work to understand it in advance of other people you're going to benefit right as it monetizes but the net outcome is that that institution will the rules of that institution will not be able to be bent twisted or broken to disfavor everyone in favor of a few so do you think um net net though the world will be a better place with bitcoin less wars more even distribution of wealth more philanthropic more people more wealth creation flat out we have to keep in mind that trade uninhibited free exchange is how we create wealth it's the only way we create wealth government does not create wealth government is in the business of taking markets are in the business of making right it's a positive sum game we create more capital than we could acting in isolation through free exchange the big inhibitory force on free exchange today is government coercion so you could think of bitcoin as a new economic paradigm that is highly resistant to coercion so the net outcome will be much more wealth creation i think global gdp goes from call it 100 trillion dollars in today's dollars to something more like like a 10x you know like a quadrillion dollars in today's dollars which could be as we've touched on multiple quadrillions in 2031 exactly so i'm personally fascinated by game theory and bitcoin is game theory uh thinking three to six years ahead and also from my chess background think about the chess moves to come what do you think is going to happen petro bitcoin as i call it which is denomination of energy and bitcoin made more major sovereigns like major sovereigns jumping on board like the brazils of the world or the argentinas uh central bank digital currency wars driving everybody towards bitcoin what do you see happening over the next three to six years yeah so the first order game theory for the state is to demonize bitcoin uh legalize it propagate misinformation just try to cloud people's perception about the reality of money central banking bitcoin uh their second incentive would be to expand the money supply and acquire bitcoin quietly again you don't want to announce your intentions that you're acquiring this asset because that would that would trigger game theory among other sovereign actors so the real thing we have we have bulgaria doing that now we have iran doing that now we have kazakhstan etc russia they're all doing it quietly and this is that's what we know about right i think there's even layers below that uh in terms of quietness uh when the news does break though as it inevitably will will and at some point by the way once they've built their position a sovereign actor their incentive then becomes to announce right because then you want to trigger this reverse bank run where other sovereign actors are trying to sit down at the table and so there's a in game theory terms the nash equilibrium which is the game state where no player has an incentive to deviate from their chosen strategy after anticipating the decisions of others the nash equilibrium of money historically was gold right it's like this is the one money that no one else can change and that's why it's still prime geopolitical money today you know for instance china is the biggest producer and buyer of gold in the world gold still makes the world go around today the nash equilibrium of fiat currency though is worthlessness right this is the race to the base every country wants to debase their currency to fund their political aims but not too quick you know they don't want to take any other country off but every country is engaging in it the nash equilibrium of bitcoin is global money frankly because it's there's a race to hold a race to save in this money uh so and this is a we're revisiting gresham's law which i'm sure you've heard of before where there's a the incentive to spend and borrow the softer money or fiat currency and to buy and save in the hardest money you can get your hands on which is bitcoin so in game theory terms i think the shelling point of 21st century money is sell fiat buy bitcoin right you want to sell and borrow all the fiat you can as we see a lot of brilliant macroeconomic strategies doing today and buy all the bitcoin they can so how does that play into china for example china obviously big lender to the us you could construe but they are spending like there's no tomorrow they're probably printing like there's no tomorrow they're buying up ports and roads and infrastructure all around the world and southeast asia and africa and everything else how does that play in to this game theory well you can think of all the ports and infrastructure and assets they're buying as a form of hard money too right they're they're expanding their money supply they're acquiring gold producing gold and they're building infrastructure um is they're a state on the rise so they're trying to expand their dominion in the world but they're doing that aggressively and exclusively through fiat currency debasement yeah cool and i throw you a curveball here a little bit of a fun question as we get towards the end your thoughts on bitcoin maximalism like some people you see that as a negative term yeah so this is i've done a bit of a study on this i've written about it i think that all cultures exhibit this cultural immune system but i think the cultural immune system itself takes on the characteristics of whatever institution it's preserving and it just so happens with the bitcoin that's been built up around it it's it's being centered on this obstinate incorruptible unchangeable money so the people that have you know self-described themselves as toxic bitcoin maximalists they tend to exhibit these properties as well they become very obstinate very you know can't change my mind very hard-headed and i think that bitcoin toxicity was actually an invaluable cultural dynamic early on right for bitcoin to sprout or get out of the ground it needed to be very scrappy very aggressive very resistant to bad ideas cypherpunks very yeah just um you know like paypal mafia type guy where they were just very hard-headed about getting this business out of the ground we'll take that times 10 for for bitcoin maximalism or 100. so but i do also think that as bitcoin continues to succeed it is essentially just an internet protocol so in the same way that http and tcpip ossified to be standards they're global standards right no one's fighting about that today so i think if bitcoin standardize and ossifies as a global economic internet protocol that bitcoin toxicity will have been will become less relevant over time no one's going to be ar you know we don't have tcp maximalists running around the world today like you know tcp ip or have fun staying poor bro like that's just that goes away over time yeah so i think it's a very necessary cultural phenomenon early on for sub to bootstrap something into global monetization but i think it loses relevance as it grows and tied into that as well i'm a very big believer in optimal asset allocation i think it's a very very important discipline to have and other than bitcoin and real estate for the people out there for the viewers what assets other than that would you think they should invest in to protect themselves from further debasement apart from the obvious gold if there is one uh specifically to protect themselves from debasement i think that's it i mean i would also say i think betting on i like self-sufficiency in general the idea of having you know backup food water weapons housing transportation all of these things are very important i personally will invest in some private companies typically early stage private deals i think some of those can succeed that can outpace inflation but i don't see a lot of broader investment categories that will do that um there could be an argument made here for automation and that inflation is going to really destroy people's real wages so this is going to put additional pressure say trucking for instance yeah truckers are going to get really hurt in the next 10 years of all this monetary manipulation so this could create additional demand for trucking automation so maybe you know i guess you could insert tesla or other investments here um but yeah it's the shift to the digital age so i think holding bitcoin is the best performing asset you're probably ever going to see in your life uh at a certain point of its monetization whether it's 2030 or 2035 or later you'll probably get another uh at bat so to speak and then investing in some of these next wave companies of the digital age because the other thing about bitcoin is i think it's going to cause us calls that cause a resurgence in value investing right today value investing has been largely decimated through fiat currency manipulation you can't make sense of price signals p e ratios are astronomical like things don't make sense that's true when you get back on an honest money hard money standard value investing will come back in a real way so i expect to see that um towards the tail end of of bitcoin's monetization which i think is like 2035 2040. i'm gonna throw you here one that always perplexes me and it's hard for me to figure out maybe i'm just too deep but imagine we went back the u.s went back to the gold standard pre-1971. what would happen to the price of bitcoin i think the inevitable end game of gold trying to scale gold is money which is ultimately what currency is the inevitable endgame of that is fiat because you're putting too much you're concentrating too much power in too few hands and that power itself as lord acton said it corrupts absolutely i don't think you can scale gold i think gold has failed it's failed multiple times we've tried to scale its transactability through currency currency always ends in fiat currency fiat currency ends in war corruption civilizational collapse so the u.s can try to re-peg to gold i don't think it'll work what and if anything by that point it could further reinforce the investment thesis for bitcoin if bitcoin is accurately perceived as a digital disruptor to gold so i think all roads lead to bitcoin that's what i always say as well that's pretty much we are uh uncannily aligned and i knew we would be a huge thank you for the time you spent with me we're going to end on a fun question that somebody asked me to ask you a dear friend said is it true you have a bitcoin tattoo on your bicep is my only only tattoo actually that is under my right arm the rumor is true wow it is true i got this tattoo in november 2018. bitcoin was worth sub four thousand dollars this was one year after launching my hedge fund so we had just been through a brutal bear market i had started writing and talking about bitcoin a lot and i guess i had finally accepted the fact that i was in bitcoin for life at that point yeah and to me this tattoo symbolizes skin in the game which i think that's the big deal here is that bitcoin is re-instituting skin in the game for everyone in the world it's holding people accountable for their actions it's encouraging and incentivizing people to be hyper responsible yeah and that's the problem with central banking and government is that you have decision makers divorced from the consequences of their decisions that's what creates this socio-economic rot and civilizational collapse so i think by restoring this balance of incentives and disincentives and skin in the game that we can actually scaffold ourselves to a new and better mode of civilization so the big message i got for the audience here and hopefully they're all stuck to the better end and be surprised everybody watches my videos to the end it's i don't know where people and if they don't have the time they break it into chunks so it's fair enough but the big lesson here for everybody out there please do your research don't let darwin darwinian situations get to you you've got to become your own sovereign you've got to educate yourself and take the leap would that be a fair summary very fair very fair and you know capitalism is nature and this is a re-emergence of capitalism right again if you study this the central bank is anti-capitalistic um and there's now you know like so many things that have been eaten or disrupted in the digital age it's money's turn and bitcoin is that disrupter great well robert thank you so much again and again i urge everybody educate yourselves subscribe to his channel read all his material once you start it's just the world looks completely different after it so big thank you sir for your time really appreciate it

Channel: InvestAnswers

Views: 321,456

Keywords: Bitcoin, bitcoin price prediction, bitcoin news today, bitcoin explained, bitcoin etf, bitcoin documentary, bitcoin news, bitcoin today, bitcoin price prediction 2030, robert breedlove interview, robert breedlove what is money, robert breedlove bitcoin, robert breedlove bitcoin price prediction, bitcoin the disrupter, nick szabo bitcoin, austrian economics, breedlove tattoo, french money printing 1700s, trustless money, kitco gold, first principles thinking

Id: Wm0w-EGtqgM

Length: 85min 7sec (5107 seconds)

Published: Mon Oct 25 2021

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That's too much hopium

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[u/randysailer]

Cant stand that Stu guy hes so slimy tells his audience to buy his big holdings then goes and buys other things and doesn't let his viewers know about it.

[u/BitBaby6969]

I cringed at Breedlove calling Bitcoin “darwinian”

[u/ShanktarDonetsk]

Lmao let's see 1m first eh guys

[u/Gooeyhen]

I get their trying to hype it up but BTC doesn't need hype like this yet. It's doing great. Focus on the next realistic step, not one that's 5 or 10 years away.