GTH 2023 – Session 1: State of the World 2023

[Music] foreign [Music] foreign [Music] thank you and it's a great privilege to be moderating this opening session and again I Echo the uh the congratulations of the Australian foreign minister Penny Wong uh both to Global Citizen and fpci I know it's an extraordinary effort to pull all this together um in a moment I'll introduce uh a panel of four very distinguished speakers uh who will be joined shortly after by a panel of um also very distinguished discussions um but let me just say a few words about the purpose of this first session um this global town of all covers a very broad agenda reflecting the uh the range and the complexity of the challenges facing the world and the International Community today and in this first session our four speakers will each have an opportunity to identify what they see as the main issues the main challenges confronting the world based on events in 2023 but also looking to the longer term Trends I'm especially interested in this conversation in understanding how the risks and the trends and the opportunities intercept so I'm sure we'll hear about issues to do with major power rivalry the the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the the brutality and disruption that that has brought to the fabric of the International System but also the threats to human security and development and indeed to uh to the very environment and climate that that uh that we all depend on and how those challenges connect and intersect we'll hear about disruptive technology and we'll hear about the challenges and opportunities within societies right across the world I hope this is a conversation that is about identifying common challenges and shared opportunities forward rather than purely about those things that uh that divide Nations and divide societies but I've said enough that I think really the judge of this conversation will very much be you the global audience so let me please now introduce the uh the four speakers that will get the conversation started but I think all of these names will be familiar to those of us who follow world affairs uh with any degree of Interest our first speaker in a moment introduce is Professor Kishore marblebani professor madhubani of course is not only a highly accomplished and distinguished Diplomat with a career initially in the Singaporean and for many years in the Singaporean Foreign Service including his foreign secretary uh ambassadorial positions representative to the United Nations of course recording stopped indeed president of the uh the security Council as well but of course more recently uh Kishore mababadi's role has been much in the academic and think tank the thought leadership space uh his his work with the National University of Singapore lead my new school of public policy but of course right now distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute National University of Singapore so let me go to you first Kishore and then I'm going to introduce the other speakers in more detail when they have their remarks please sir the floor is yours thank you very much Rory please let me Begin by first joining any and you in congratulating Ambassador Gino Jalal the spectacular team for organizing this amazing global town hall of beating the richest owners of the world uh uh and I agreeing with you that we should talk about the future in the five minutes you assign me what I'm going to talk about is three big trends uh that we should pay special attention to over the next 10 years first in the area of job politics that's absolutely no question that over the next 10 years we will see an acceleration of the US China geopolitical contest now I spelled out the structural reasons for this in my book has China won but the critical thing to know is that there's an amazing consensus in a dim fighter American policy that the United States has about 10 years who stopped China from becoming number one so there's an amazing bipartisan consensus that we're going to do whatever we need to that's why you are trade sanctions that's why you have the chips at that's why you have moved to restrict American Investment in China so it'll be a rough ride but he said I want to emphasize the point that any need that the world faces common Global challenges and maybe we should persuade the United States and China tone down their contests and focus on the common Global challenges like climate change second one I'm going to make very quickly is that an issue of concern especially for Southeast Asia is that sadly the relations between China and India are not improving indeed they're growing levels of distrust and last night I appeared in the Indian NDTV show to discuss the possibility that President Xi Jinping may not attend the G20 and if it doesn't uh it'll be very sad and for all of us in Southeast Asia we are all aware that for the past 2000 years the two civilizations that have had the greatest impact on Southeast Asia have been the Chinese and Indian civilizations Senate and index civilizations and amazingly even though India is further away from Southeast Asia Indian influence is much deeper as you can see in the country like Indonesia so I think it's time therefore for the asean countries so seeing whether they can quietly launch an initiative to improve relations between China and India because a relation between the two get troubled we insult musician will be affected as I work certified in my next point because at that point I'm going to make is a paradoxical one having spoken about all the dangers that we faced ginormous I also want to emphasize that I'm finally optimistic for the future racial and this will be the Asian uh Century I say this by the way or is some confidence because when I came out with my book the ancient 21st century in January 2022 Springer nature expected 2000 downloads instead they've been 3.2 million downloads in 160 countries I mentioned this because the whole world is preparing psychologically for the Asian century and this ancient Century by the way will be driven by what I call the new CIA now CIA doesn't stand for Central uh intelligence agency cias that's what Aina India and asean if you add 1.4 billion people in China 1.4 billion people in India 700 million people in asean you get 3.5 billion people now among these 3.5 billion people respect 40 the worst population in the year 2000 there were only 115 million only 116 billion people in the middle class population but by 2020 it had exploded 10 times to 1.5 billion and by 2030 around 10 years from now or so guess what the number is going to grow to 2.5 to 3 billion now this is the world's largest explosion number middle class populations and I have no doubt that this is what will the drive will withdrawals and therefore the conclude Rory let's also be optimistic for the future thank you look thank you for those remarks thank you for those remarks uh kishum abubani and I think uh you you've got us uh as always off to a um a provocative start because there are some big uh some big points you make there and I think I just flagged two thoughts for later in the conversation um one is uh is the United States alone the Strategic uh challenge to if you like China's growth or China's Rise um and I think you yourself have flagged that it's more complex than that um that we need to think about the as I would argue the multipolarity of the region um and I think the role of India there is is incredibly important uh and others as well uh because I think if you look at the an asia-centric region as an indo-pacific region uh as some would say as a as a global center of gravity it's a global it's a global region it's a global question and that goes to a second question which we may come back to which is again about the Asian Century because a century is a hundred years and if you look towards the end of this Century uh it may be beginning to look more like an African Century so I'm I'll be really interested in questions about um planning for the long term rather than looking into the uh you know the next 10 to 20 years which of course is a blinker than I um but I'm going to go to our second speaker second presenter now Ambassador uh sujan chenoy and of course uh Ambassador chinois director general of the uh The manohar paraka Institute for defense study analysis in Delhi but also chair of the think 20 uh I think 20 India which of course is perhaps a um a place that has its moment because it's uh India's hosting at the G20 Summit very soon as we've just heard and there are some fascinating questions there about what that means and the bigger strategic picture but of course Ambassador Chennai also has built on a very distinguished career in Indian Foreign Service including as ambassador to Japan so Ambassador chinoi suchad if I can turn to you uh interesting the question for you which is really a question about how do we get through this fractured strategic environment and how perhaps does the uh the role of democracy not only in if you like uh seemingly Western democracies but democracy more generally play its part uh question for you sergeant you're muted thank you Rory thank you very much and uh uh thanks to Ambassador Dino also for inviting me to this global town hall I'm glad you raised that question for me as I look uh at 2023 and the years ahead I see a fractured World in which uh there are seven T's that divide all uh geographies and create fictional points these are the 70s of trade technology editorial disputes and differences terrorism tenets as in narratives values principles and systems of governance and development transparency and trust these are the seven T's that are to be seen as friction points in all geographies whether you're up or the indo-pacific the main Trends in my view that are before us which is that there is a weakened United Nations and a dysfunctional WTO less of uh you know sort of uh um U.N Guidance with regard to Global issues this is likely to continue the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end anytime soon so the simple fact that it's very difficult to defeat even a former superpower on its own doorstep there are no examples of that there are many examples of superpowers being defeated elsewhere but not on their own territory if they said um back home uh in their own kind of sphere of influence uh Sino U.S rivalry is expected to continue uh and we will also see Rising military expenditures around the world Europe as well as in the indo-pacific and the post-pandemic distress is also something that is likely to continue uh for me the uh three main uh sort of possibilities for major disruption uh Black Swan gray Rhino kind of events are a potential uh out of the box uh us Russia resect this was spoken of when uh Trump came into power in January 2017 but very soon was swept under the carpet due to allegations of interference uh in the internal affairs in the United States the second uh potential big disrupture could be China's unilateral action in the Taiwan Strait and uh the fact that the United States will get involved Japan will get involved you can create uh chaos all around the third is uncertainty in the Chinese economy which is already beginning to affect uh China but also may affect the rest of the world um for me I think the important thing is that the only representative group today that is likely to be able to get some job done with regard to low hanging fruit especially to address uh the key questions of achieving sustainable development goals we are already at the halfway mark uh looking at gender equality uh looking to see how we can ensure the Equitable uh and uh equal access to digital public infrastructure um and also look at Ways and Means to address the big challenge of climate Finance climate change uh this is the G20 and India strike to make it as inclusive as possible uh I think the G20 therefore should stick to the main agenda of uh you know Economic Development uh and sdgs and this will in my view feed into the summit of sdgs which is to take place at the United Nations later this month as you are aware next year the summit of the future which will also be held in September 2024 we'll also look at sdgs so this will feed into that India's effort um I think it's also important to note that democracy is uh you know there are many of varying shakes and I think there are elections coming up in the United States India Indonesia even Mexico Taiwan but these are not likely to fundamentally alter the main Trends I would question uh people from also using democracy in an absolute manner because there are shades of democracy and in the global South there are many countries that practice democracy but a kind of democracy that's embedded in their civilizational and historical experience so the West needs to be particularly careful in trying to build consensus um you know and making sure that they do not usually use the word democracy in a fashion that suggests uh in terms of uh uh sort of uh aspects to their policy so I think this is where we stand today uh and there should be a greater effort made within the G20 to build consensus uh India is doing its best to bring the Au in that's 54 countries uh and to make the G20 as representative as possible the G20 is like a Wayside station where people can pull up uh in a traffic jam of uh multilateralism to actually sit together and discuss the big issues before the rest of the world so let's all work together now thank you thank you very much for that to join uh sujan and I think a traffic jam of multilateralism we can come back to that perhaps let's go to our third speaker uh who is uh Jose uh Echo is president of the Paris Peaks Forum uh but of course uh well known as Secretary General formerly at the oecd in 20 uh 2006 through to 2021 uh so bringing obviously a very profound economic perspective but anger if I can go to you deeper than that and look at the role of the private sector because we're beginning to already unpack Global problems so much of the capacity to address those problems and the responsibility I would argue is not all in the hands of government so I would love to hear your views on that please first of all thank you Rory and the second um we have to strengthen the U.N we have to strengthen the the agencies of the United Nations when it comes to uh making peace companies cannot make peace um but I have to say at the same time that we have to understand and accept the role of private sector companies of null state artboards of um it the you know uh that that tech companies for example tech companies very very important they have a very important role to play in shaping Global development and um so increasingly these non-state actors are not taking over but they're complementing and they're doing their own thing uh and let me just say without the private sector doing its own thing in terms of for example climate change well climate change will not happen uh well well actually the the fight uh against uh climate change will not happen we we will not succeed and then remember it was a private sector which put together the first um price of carbon Coalition huh and who decided that they would put a price of carbon uh but Rory and the dear friends we sometimes forget that the greatest most important intergenerational responsibility that we have is with the planet and that there's no plan b or the Blended that there's no Planet fee actually and therefore that we have to stay the course we have been distracted Rory because there was first the pandemic and then there was The Invasion in The Invasion wrought inflation and the inflation bought you know brought the highest interest rates ever and therefore and we're still suffering from that and that you know the whole discussion of whether there will be a recession or not a recession that the United States Etc as a result of the actual uh High interest rates which are the result of the inflation which is the result of the invasion and everything else but let's not forget this single most important intergenerational responsibility is with the planet and therefore whether there's a pandemic whether there is a an invasion whether this war in Europe for the first time in 80 years uh you know with the with the neighbor yes but that should not distract us and let me tell you um also that I believe companies are absolutely crucial to make things happen for example uh on information and democracy how are we going to get you know how are we going to rescue the quality of our democracy just at stake now with all this authoritarianism and all these communalism um we have to get the private sector companies lined up so that they will support so that they will actually help us how are we going to get uh the next pandemic under control how are we going to address the next pandemic uh if not uh with the support of the brand especially after having seen the the disaster that was uh in terms of equity and in terms of uh uh fight against poverty et cetera et cetera that was the last the last pandemic uh when we talk about uh when we talk about the back seats so there you are ladies there you are yeah thank you there you are let's look and go let's stay that's uh I think a really important message and and I think it will resonate throughout the full town of all uh the responsibility of the private sector and I think um I'm going to turn now to our final speaker in the opening panel and that is of course uh Suzanne baras Flume uh Suzanne is president of the East West Center in Honolulu uh which plays a vital role in a much more comprehensive understanding of Asia and the uh United States relationship with with Asia across the board um coming from a career that includes uh leadership roles in uh in in US military but now looking much more I think as a former Major General looking much more comprehensively comprehensively at the human picture so Suzanne the the floor is yours and I'm interested in your understanding of the the greater complexity of the late who really manage the challenges in the the globally pivotal region of the indo-pacific looking Beyond actually the military Dimension looking at the economic and human Dimensions what are your views thank you so much Rory and thank you to our distinguished panelists and for the organizers of this wonderful global town hall great to join you from Manila today although I would normally be in Honolulu Hawaii but I'm here meeting with alumni where many students who have benefited from Multicultural International Education which is a point I'd like to talk about when we talk about the state of the indo-pacific you know I see the state of the indo-pacific from a perspective that I feel I need to share because it's about perspective from someone whose Roots is from this region or kanakamauli from Hawaii and also a mother from Japan so I know um well it's not about me or it's not about any individual but that perspective really colors the way in which we look at at the region it is my ancestral Homeland and someone who's working with these 36 plus Nations now as a leader of the East West Center on building those relations and understanding among nations and people of the United States Asia and the Pacific through a not just education Cooperative study but research and dialogue which was some of the things that was mentioned here that we have to get together and we have to have these dialogues you know we've heard it said by many of our speakers distinguished speakers so far that we really are at that inflection point in our global history the indo-pacific region or the Asia Pacific however you want to see it is in the Global Spotlight and not just because of that geopolitical strategic competition but because of the great opportunities uh that each of our speakers so far had said that exist that we can all live in peace and prosperity if those opportunities are distributed equitably you know as it was mentioned you know rising out of a global pandemic we see the impacts of climate change and in the indo-pacific more natural disasters that occur in this region than any other place in the world increasing in its intensity you know even Maui we see the impacts of the drought of the you know Century um the worst disaster in the U.S history in this Century on Maui we see historical grievances border conflicts overlapping territorial claims illegal fishing rise in authoritarian regimes human rights violations human we've heard all of this disinformation poor governance challenge it is to the international rules and norms and these combinations impacting the people on the ground in communities who often feel they do not have agency to make change for their generation and generations to come however as being an optimist as well as professor madhubani said that diversity and economic potential growth in this region is varied no two countries are the same but and it's a vast the indo-pacific I would say as we all I think would agree is the most consequential region of this Century because of its people its economics and global trade potential it is the home of half of the population and by the way I have to say half of that population no matter what country or House women you know some are brought up I think the Ambassador brought up gender issues and I think that is is key and important so thank you for bringing that out you know we have nearly two-thirds of the world economy in this region home to the busiest sea lanes that enable global global Commerce and home to some of the world's largest seaports key critical Technical Supply Chain manufacturing minerals untap resources that are found in the indo-pacific you know at the same time with that rise of the middle class there's going to be more competition for those resources more competition that can lead to conflict and challenges to prosperity and as a result you know many Regional body bodies and multilateral construct have been formed and we talked about some of those because we believe that that Collective capacity is so important something that hasn't been brought up that I do want to mention is the Pacific Islands you know this vast body the large people say small Islands in States but I say large island large ocean Nations because of the resources that are there the maritime resources available some of them untapped and unexplored the Pacific Islands Forum created their 2050 strategy for the Blue Pacific continent and it acknowledges the diversity that exists among Pacific island nations but they all need to come together to address those challenges to their number one existential threat which is climate change and they come together from a place of empowered leaders to discover waste not as victims because that's how often they are painted but ways to adapt and mitigate So speaking of leaders I believe that not only we need to create policies constructs and dialogues and research we need to invest in the next generation of leaders who can make that change because if we don't we can see the exact examples of what happens when we don't those authoritarian leaders who like to who perhaps prefer to line their pockets rather than ensure that the security of the people for which they of which who they lead um we also have to really believe in those long-term Investments of that next generation of change maker give them those skills those values relationships to realize to be transformative and Advocate and I understand there's many shades of democracy whatever that shade is but the voice of the people rule of law Justice equity and respect for human rights I think are so critical so bottom line I will close here I believe that if we enable that collaboration Innovation and freedom of thought and a movement movement towards selfless service and intergenerational and international understanding we can look closer to a more peaceful and prosperous region for us all thank you so much thank you so much uh Suzanne and I think that uh that really previews so many of the issues we want to go into throughout this town hall I'm going to go straight to our our fives um brilliant discussions and what I'd like to do actually is offer each of the five discussants a short opportunity of a few minutes to respond to anything they've heard uh and perhaps identify any priorities they think have been missed and then I'll go back after the five discussions to our our speakers and try to generate a bit of time as well for audience members to send in their questions um so the first discussion I'm going to go to is in fact I think uh important not only as a voice in North Asian diplomacy but also as a leading voice in a relatively small power but nonetheless a power that that has very strong uh traditions and Independence and of course that is to Ambassador Ambassador uh inks icon from Mongolia who's uh chairman of blue Banner Mongolia Ambassador the floor is yours all right thank you my chair I would like to add first to thank the panelists for their presentation for Rich let's say contributions they have raised many many issues I think if we focus on one issue that will lose a lot of time so I think we're glad to thank them all for our books in this issues yes uh we all agree that the state of the world is releasing concerns in many areas not only one or not but in many areas increasing rivalry among the great Powers is alarming therefore the middle pulse are expected to collect a positive room not because of power vacuum but due to the competition of their self-interests in addressing the global challenges these middle Powers need to work and I would like to underline this closely with small states that form the overwhelming majority of its National community as well as with active ngos that U.S Secretary General Mark of Anan has said yeah qualified them as superpower there so we have to focus more on that as well by their very nature of small states are quite sensitive to the challenges they are the most affected and Keen to find sustainable traditions to the sdgs as it was mentioned by one of the previous speakers these are objective objective prerequisites for Success that need to be encouraged and made practical use of an example on the issue is also the nuclear weapons they threaten all and thus are the concerns for all plants non-nuclear weapon states are natural proponents of establishing every weapon-free zones and of course the nuclear weapon free world however in their increasing rivalry the great Powers including in the indo-pacific expect non-nuclear weapon states to take sides in their rivalry in this sense that for all area that should not happen and that should be considered as the contribution of small states to overall peace and stability that's where we see contribution of small states on in this area there are nearly two dozen uh states that due to their geographical location or for valid political or legal reasons cannot be part of traditional groups data nuclear weapon three zones that turns them into blind spots and gray areas and not actual Stepping Stones to the nuclear weaponry rule thank you very much thank you indeed I'll I'll just pause next speaker we might revert to that issue throughout vital issue throughout the uh the dialogue I'm going to go to Johns Hemmings um so John Hemmings uh who's uh senior director at Brindo Pacific and security policy at Pacific Forum uh John please thank you so much uh Rory thank you to the panel and uh again thank you very much to foreign policy Community Indonesia for allowing me to take part in this really interesting discussion I'll touch on three points and maybe mention one point that I think could have done maybe could have been highlighted more even as I said I I some not as humble as I should but I'll put forward I'm like I think the three points are uh the strategic competition that was mentioned previously he was trying to buy a number of different speakers um and I'd like to you know also explore the idea that that in fact that has widened uh to some extent not I'm not quite sure what the Dynamics of that might be whether you know the China might characterize it as the United States rallying countries behind it United States might characterize it as countries that have been had their own relationship fallouts with China but um simply you know to read off the the in India Japan South Korea Germany UK Canada any number of nations have had issues with China and so there's a question of whether we start to see maybe gently in post Ukraine that U.S China conflict particularly as Taiwan emerges as a prospect we see you know sought factions not cold war factions but soft factions so that's one uh area of concern and also just responding to what people are saying the second one was many lateralism uh and the idea of the United Nations and I think unfortunately because we really need especially with climate change uh we really do need uh International responses to these things but as we saw during the Cold War is Jupiter rivalries rise uh a lot of these organizations tend especially the United Nations security Council become less efficient as people compete and and uh use the the forums for competition and so I think now Aria is seeing G20 but you're also see this in the trilaterals and the Resurgence of NATO and so the sort of traditional mini lapsuals and alliances are resurging which um you know for better or worse and then my final point is on the the sort of Rise of Asia and CIA has mentioned you know to some extent the Asia development Banks report 2017 says that 1.7 trillion dollars is required every year to help Asia rise and the question is what does that look like with AI thrown into it Smart Technologies we reach those sorts of numbers of investment Belton Road seems to have fallen up as China slows down rest United States spacious bases the Ukraine induced recession and so even though I want to be as optimistic as one of our panelists my my question would be can can we really be that optimistic so with that I'll I'll leave the floor thank you thank you thank you John um that that sums it up nicely I think and I I think it's um appropriate that point to uh I put raise that question all what are other nations challenges with China it's not only a U.S China story but also what are the situation what are the circumstances inside China and I think with that it's a perfect moment to go to our next um discussion uh Dr Liu Ching who's uh vice president uh senior research fellow as well at the China Institute of strategic studies in Beijing uh Dr Liu the floor is yours a long time and many thanks for invitation into the discussion uh and uh I just want to have two points uh and there are two questions and at first I just want to I asked a professor Kishore marapuni a my question is in the context of entertaining intensifying geopolitical competition the diminishing role of the United new United Nations the weakening of modulatorism and the rise of the block politics how should the International Community come together to save the disorderly International water as we all know and after second world war our senior Generation Um came together to build the International System based on un Charter and the prosperous and the international order based on international law right now I think the all are challenged have been challenged and how could the International Community come together to get get out of this the difficulties and what kind of best principles we should stay committed to keep the original Global peace and stability and that second question I want to ask a professor Sudani Juarez long and they we know 10 years ago we I talked more about Asia Pacific concept and right now we talk even more you know the concept of income Pacific and I think different people different countries had different definitions of this concept in terms of geopolitics now this Concepts only include a maritime Nations but exclude ancient Continental Asian Nations was a the original Asia Pacific is divided into two parts a and uh and that is uh well in terms of uh the view of the other job now geography now geography and the concept such as aoip emphasize the Cruces cooperation so I think different countries have a different opinion of a indo-pacific my question is how to shape this Concepts so that include uh make the make the region more inclusive and less exclusive more collaborative and less competitive thanks thank you Dr Lee we will have to leave your present there for the moment uh but it's really useful to have those questions and interventions from a colleague in China we've heard from uh voices in the United States uh Mongolia I want to go to our next discussion uh it's from uh from Pakistan and that's Dr Shabana fayaz who's chair of defense and strategic studies at Katie Azam University in Islamabad uh the floor is yours Dr FiOS uh yes hello everybody it's really nice uh to see all of you and by sharing the floor with very esteemed and uh seasoned people like uh mabulani and and of course the senior ambassadors and Suzanne uh from Hawaii where I have there for about 12 weeks as well in apcss Center uh talking about the uh world today I feel that the world today is league as well as it is there are positive signs on it and specifically about Asia uh what we are talking about is I think the three elements need to be looked in what is the digital divide that we are suffering and then it is the depth the issue of the depth servicing and third is the Deep polarization and fourth but not the most important is the Deep distrust and this is very important so these are the four things I think that needs the cooperation digital divide between the countries like the China India Indonesia Australia and the others and especially but the dependency on the western base of digitalization this is something I think we need to have our own indigenous system in place and and help one another like China and others those who are all ready to music the different forms because I am not at East OS but the problem is that if there is a digital disconnectivity or you are going to manage the online businesses and because the most populated World area uh the most of the businesses and the online work Community has enlarged and that really depends on our good servicing and having said this I really feel another important is the issue of uh investing in human capital we have the this book PostNet wealth within Asia we have the you know the grouping out of the region then your neighborhood and reaching now the others for for the betterment it is realistic formula but the problem is you cannot afford to move out geographically or the region where you have the hostilities and for this I think the conception of security needs to be enlarged do we need to have a perception of security to being outside the region or we need to take along the partners who may not be friendly to you you steer from them because of the non-state actors and others migrations and the illegal supply of weapons and of course the Hostile ideologies so the basic point I would like to do here is I hope I'm not surpassing my two minutes or three minutes is that for the future what we need is we need first is to refrain and invest in the leadership we have the youth population and of course the proportion of female population is large in Asia so and then we have the exploitation of human capital as well so if we move towards that I think we can have a better future and last but not least we need to eat polarizer mics in a positive way in a constructive way in reaching out in mixing the other formulas with the indigenous reality unless we continue to borrow with the fancy words of you know democracy and others and others we need to devise our own conceptions and I think look within is the answer for me to the Future and thank you thank you Dr sayas and I'll go to a final discussion uh and that of course is Dr riosahashi from Japan uh placed the floor is yours thank you very much and it is my great appraiser to participate in this Diversified panel uh thank you very much for organizing so um I think uh this is a little bit strange but I yeah I want to conquer or with Dr Duty from China on the point of in the plastic question because I believe you know this is very bad if we only you know think either plastic biases as opacity I totally agree with you right oh what is most important for us now you know living in Asia is we have to uh understand Asia plastic and uh in the plastic are both important concept right and you know it is very important because Japan sometimes misunderstood we only pass you uh in the Pacific idea uh but this is not true you know we support TPP transpastic partnership we support age of classic architecture you know we never ignore the idea in the passive uh asopastic but the most important thing is even even if we use as a plastic or uh uh in the plastic most important thing is rule-based order is important right we have to uh you know comprise the Lu we you know create by ourselves right and you know from that perspective my concern in the state of 2023 is economic collagen which we have now received from China uh you know uh because you know of course we know the concern right everybody should have concerned even including me about you know uh office water uh you know from the home of kushima or deity uh nuclear reactors area but still you know we have to believe the International Group and scientific knowledge are Intrigue knowledge are should be the basis of the discussion but somehow we've got very big common caution but the collagen is not the only thing we deceived right everybody or received and in the last 10 years we saw over 100 100 different thousand but the most important thing is I want to emphasize here is we have to uh get over this situation always based on time engineering technology uh and also International cooperation multilateralism WTO right if not we cannot sustain this order and we cannot sustain the internationalism right so uh this is just my short comment but you know I I just want to compile with other panelists but just as final uh I I still have started seconds uh my just a question is uh just a little bit different a little bit but I believe this area there it needs shared leadership in coming decades not only by United States not only by China right we need shared leadership we need Coalition of middle powers and we need a question of Civil Society but how could we envision that future maybe maybe to Dr Kishore mahabali but also other excellent speakers you have your own takes on the future of our middle powers and Civil Society so uh additive migration thank you very much thank you Dr saharashi and I think you've you've really hit a key issue here what I'm going to do is just read out three very brief questions from members of the public from some of the global public that is tuning in to this extraordinary conversation then I'm going to hand the law back to each of our four speakers and give you two minutes each for any concluding responses or remarks or answers to questions we're not going to resolve everything here and now it's going to be a long conversation but thank you the three questions from uh our our viewers one from mourinhobogo is from Indonesia is a question really about debt and it's a and it's a question pointing in particular to to the uh to whether in fact uh Chinese uh economic partnership necessarily involves debt and how does that debt affect the sovereignty of a country like Indonesia the second and third questions from punima bijaya from India and Devi Tama from Indonesia are both about middle power diplomacy and precisely that question of how do coalitions of middle Powers navigate this era of strategic rivalry and I'm just going to add one quick observation before I hand back to our four speakers and that's to note this fascinating debate about the indo-pacific and the Asia Pacific I think that the asean outlook on the indo-pacific for the viewers who are interested provides an interesting way to navigate any false dichotomy there an inclusive vision of an indo-pacific region but uh to you Professor malubanik you're sure you have the floor first thank you Rory we have two minutes but you know the most dangerous thing in international relations Is to engage in wishful thinking we had to deal with hot realities let me give force that the 60 Japanese will answer the question supposed to me by Professor Liu and our Japanese colleague the first statistic is that the West makes up 12 percent of the world's population 88 of the world splits outside Lewis this explains the seconds that this did the Russian invasion of Lutheran was illegal we should condemn it we have conducted but 85 percent the world's population including India have not imposed actions uh on Russia so Russia is not isolated in some ways is the wealth that is isolated in imposing sections on Russia it's sad status the bricks combined GNP of bricks in 1992 was ah there are the G7 today the combined GNP bricks is higher than that G7 making it clear that the G7 is a sunset organization and Bricks is a sunrise the last point we talk about tax question objects that trap diplomacy and the doubt and door initiative the 193 countries in the world 140 countries have opted to join the Belton Road now the reason I give all these statistics is that we can bring the world together but we can only bring the world together if we understand and the minds of the 88 percent who live outside the west and who are in a sense going to drive this 21st century then Rory I agree with you you'll be an Asian century plus an African Century so let's understand what the Africans want also thank you Kishore let's go to Ambassador sujan Pinoy yeah thanks Rory uh let me begin with a comment on the future of middle powers in my view the middle powers are not a single group they have different profiles different geographies different interests different Destinies and as part of their aging policies it's very difficult or the middle pass really to come together as a group they can only do this to promote their interests in tandem with one of the major paths so for me that's out uh future of civil societies I think they have a great future so long as civil societies do not start believing that they have responsibilities that transcend National identities uh sovereignty uh and uh you know decision making that is best left governments as far as the indo-pacific versus the Asia Pacific is concerned I think the Asia Pacific is a thing of the past it belonged to the latter half of the 19th century uh in which Japan the Asian tigers in China grew very rapidly by accessing the one big market across the Pacific in the United States of America this Century has seen many more uh economic uh Powers emerging uh in Southeast Asia South Asia as far as Africa so the indo-pacific is the more representative more democratic more accommodating of aspirations of a much larger larger Suite of geography and many more people I think the series of nuclear weapons has not been discussed today except in passing uh but we must happen back to the January 3 statement of the U.N security Council permanent members they spoke of the Regan uh Gorbachev uh you know proposition that a nuclear uh War can never be won and therefore must never be fought but today we have in fact a growing series of nuclear weapons as a result of the war in Ukraine and there are references to tactical nuclear weapons um and so that's worrying for me um for me again a big issue and that's the last point last point to just point yes last point is that uh it'll be very difficult for China to achieve the China Dream by 2049 unless Taiwan is reunified there are two possibilities China does it forcefully uh or it takes penis to Peaceful unification the latter is unlikely at this stage and a forceful reunification means a disastrous possibilities between now and 2049 thank you thank you for that for that important observation I think uh our our third speaker uh Engel two minutes please you're muted it used to be that um you went to the Paris Club in order to settle your debts today if China is not a part of the Pirates club or is not involved in the overall debt resolution issue then it will not get solved at all and simply because they're 140 to 150 billion debts of developing countries mostly Africans because the Latin Americans have not gotten so much involved and of course some uh of heavily uh inducted with Asia so uh that is a new problem today uh and it's a new challenge today and China has to understand that if they really want to be a good citizen a citizen of the world and they want to spread their influence and they want to you know have greater clout they're going to have to deal with the question of the debt and that means maybe another hippie that forgiveness round and it's going to be expensive for the Chinese but they're gonna have no choice thank you Ambassador um we will now go to our final speaker uh Suzanne you have about two minutes less is even better thank you I'll be very quick I do want to address the question by Dr Liu about the indo-pacific you know it's all about perspective like I said we have put out a series calls Asia matters for America so surely Asia and its continent critically important you can look us up online asiamattersforamerica.org um but the indo-pacific to me is very inclusive of a geographic boundary being from someone from the Pacific where we call the Pacific Super Highway Kahiki which is where our ancestors traveled and connected us to the land where it originated also from China you know Taiwan Indonesia coming the austronesian language is coming into the Pacific including the Indian Ocean kind of almost like the hands that wraps the ocean so from a more indigenous view to me it's much more inclusive of the patterns of our ancestors who've come throughout the region um and and and the the place in which we live is in the Pacific um so I I you it a different way but of course Asia in itself the relationship to the United States somebody like me who ancestors came from China ancestors came from you know all over in a most diverse country I believe in the world the United States and uh not that it's without you know issues like every place else but I think I love the fact that we have transparent dialogue about it that we can um uh take a look and address these issues and I think that super highway along the Pacific also needs to be a verbal Super Highway of dialogue that many of you on this I know so very well that that line of communication between the United States and China has to remain open and through education diplomatic needs the trade is so very critical for both countries uh you know one of the largest import exports and and we have the you know the the um the rise in in the way we both countries live is because of this integrated trade and I think we need to continue to do that so um with that the last thing I do want to mention I know I have two seconds uh is that we need to also look through a Equitable gender lens of our world that the women's voices need to be heard in all of these decisions and that's I will leave it at that thank you so much Marie thank you for ending on that note of dialogue and inclusion and I think that actually sets a tone for the rest of the global town hall many problems illuminated uh but I think at this point we're going to have to share our optimism our confidence in the future back with our hosts uh and and look forward to the rest of the dialogue but thank you all for your candor uh your honesty and also your um uh your Humanity in this conversation today

Channel: Sekretariat FPCI

Views: 14,180

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Id: l1TrypX8owA

Length: 61min 33sec (3693 seconds)

Published: Thu Sep 14 2023