Former Republican issues stunning prediction ahead of election

now we've got writer and podcast host of the bulwark Tim Miller thanks for coming back hey brother good to be back with you thanks let's jump right into the the Trump of it all here to start uh let's get the bad stuff out of the way first yeah yeah so there's this prevailing notion here that Trump's indictments are going to be making him stronger by by virtue of like buttressing this idea that he's a martyr and so him being indicted him being possibly convicted is gonna ultimately re down to his benefit right um you're in that whole quasi-republican world not too deep into that world anymore but you know you you um you know obviously host a a show where there's a lot of former Republicans you work with Sarah Longwell uh who runs focus groups at the bulwark um in reality is there any evidence to suggest that Trump being indicted Trump possibly being a convicted felon would in any way actually help him when it comes to the general election oh the general election no I don't I certainly don't think so I bet but you know he's got to get to the general election first right and I do think that this is based on the idea that in the primary we've seen particularly that brag indictment a lot of people rallied to their man you know it's the whole Stand By Your Man effect and though I think that there was a little bit of that following the brag indictment and and then but that was the brag indictment I feel like is different from the doj indictment and the possible Fulton County indictment yeah for sure and and so I think that the Republican but but Trump's bump within the Republican primary voters happened after the drag indictment though and that then coincides with DeSantis like having his failure launch you know with Elon and so now the question is do these additional indictments hurt him with the big middle of the Republican primary so so this is this is the group that matters right there's the 35 percent that are in a cult there's 15 that are going to be with Mike Pence or Tim Scott or whoever somebody else some of them are with DeSantis and then there's the big middle fifty percent they liked Trump they thought he was a good president but they aren't sure if they want to stick with him will these additional indictments move those people so far they haven't um so I think that right now there's reason to believe that that Trump could easily still become the nominee in spite of being you know in trial now does this help him in a general election are you insane like he might have to be in court like you can't campaign when you're a criminal defendant I mean there's some logistical elements to this that will hurt right and then we just lived through the midterms you know where across the country the most insane pro-insurrection Pro coup Republicans were rejected I you know we I was in Arizona a bunch for the circus um you know we saw this with Carrie Lake and Blake Masters you saw it with Herschel Walker Doug mastriano in Pennsylvania right like these people were punished for their association with Trump's anti-democratic actions there's no reason to believe those same voters will then want to be for Trump in the face of additional criminal uh you know activity even since the midterm so I basically I don't think it helps them in general at all so I mean it is the primary that much in doubt on Trump's behalf that he has to lean into this whole martyrdom thing with these indictments like shouldn't he be I mean he's pulling like 30 points ahead of his closest rival and granted you know we've called races for Hillary Clinton that that didn't pan out that way but but is the primary that much in doubt that he has to lean into the martyrdom of it all I think that um Trump acts like a Savage Beast he's an animal who acts instinctively and if he feels that he's being persecuted like he is gonna lash out right and I don't I don't think you can always put strategic motives behind him and look here's one thing that just happened this week uh the governor of Iowa Kim Reynolds uh is neutral in the primary between him and DeSantis which is kind of crazy because she's much more of a DeSantis type of a person or even more of a Tim Scott type of person but she stayed neutral Trump starts attacking her as an idiot and like a buffoon and he's sending out bleats on his social media account about how horrible she is now I no political consultant would ever say to a candidate like attack the governor of the first caucus state who's neutral she doesn't even oppose you like viciously attacker but he can't help himself it's like I know she's not for me oh she's against me I'm gonna attack him and I think he is the same way you know with brag he's just gonna be the same with Jack Smith with random people on these grand juries are gonna get attacked uh this is I've obviously find this despicable and gross but I just think that like when you're trying to get inside his warped mind you know trying to project like long-term strategizing is stupid like he's not like looking at the poll numbers and before he decides what he's going to fart out on a social media account you know Chris Christie has been going full bore at Trump obviously do you think that's going to have any discernible impact on him or is this just Christy uh basically placating some some Grudge for Trump trying to kill him a couple years yeah so I'll have two thoughts about this and and they're a little bit in Conflict one I've been begging for somebody to do this you know in the Republican parties just say the truth you don't have to be gratuitous just deliver the the the tough attacks on Trump that he deserves Chris Christie's finally doing it but then it's like but it's Chris Christie and like Chris Christie was like the reason like one of the main reasons Trump got nominated he he attacked Marco instead of trump in the last primary this isn't like some long-standing principle thing for him it's just a grudge because Trump gave him covet and nearly killed him and the first thing he asked was like Hey you're not going to tell anybody about this right yeah and so I look I'm happy he's out there doing it I'm particularly happy when he's on Fox doing it because you know viewers need to hear this stuff maybe maybe it'll seep through the blood-brain barrier of some of the like viewers and that'd be good just to be clear I have turned off the Wi-Fi here any uh any any seepage but I'm really nervous about that uh I actually had to ask for you to approve that before I came into the studio it was on your rider that's right um but here's the thing that really worries me if you want to get into the dorky politics of Christy really quick so I worked for um uh John Huntsman in in 12 and Jab and 16. and then I want to lump Kasich in there who I didn't work for but it's kind of in that mold right of this moderate Republican bull like Huntsman and 12 got uh I think 16 or 17 in New Hampshire Kasich got 15 or 16. you know Jeb we got down the single digits so if you look at a place like New Hampshire there's like about one-fifth of the Republican primary electorate is there for someone like Christy yeah but here's the problem it's only one-fifth Christie's not gonna do any better than we did so he's going to end up in the teens and he's taking that vote away from somebody who could conceively beat Trump so so in a weird way Christy being in is like kind of harming the chances that someone else could actually beat Trump in New Hampshire that might have a broader base of support than him so anyway I don't know I like what he's doing but um I I don't think that in the end it's going to be for much of anything except maybe a distant distant second to New Hampshire is the best case scenario and then do you think that I mean this is this is the ultimate question but like do you think that there is any room for an anti-trump candidate in the Republican party right now no the the anti-trump group is about 15 right and if you just look at the top three I was early on this I was like if there's anybody in this field maybe someone will come in but in this field if there's anybody besides Trump or DeSantis who has a chance it's Vivek because what the voters want in the Republican party right now is Maga and they want somebody that smells Maga that sounds Maga that is not one of those old-timey Bush bulwark people right like they don't want anybody who even has the scent of that on them okay so here we are right now today Trump's Around 50. The Stance is around 20. vivex around 10. he's now cleared the former vice president Mike Pence in multiple polls okay yeah so that's 25 80 Mary once Trump descends or Vivek yeah that's the party which is just some some iteration of trump maybe Trump himself or Trump without the legal battle Yeah a trump imitator without the league of legend who's younger right like that's it that's 80 of the party so 15 or 20 on somebody else 20 is the absolute Max and and it's just these guys can't wake up to the reality and so now um just this weekend it's it's Pence Scott and and Nikki are all going into Iowa to go to an event with Tucker where it's like the crowd's like throwing Tomatoes at them Tucker's making fun of them for being pro Ukraine Adidas they haven't accepted the reality of what has happened to the Republican party and and and like my big message is to every all of my old friends in the Republican party is like wake up to the reality it's not what you wish it would be it's not what you wanted to be yeah like the party is what it is and the voters want Mega nonsense but I mean there has to be some degree of being able to see more than five inches in front of your face and recognizing what happened to your point in 2022 recognizing what happened to Trump in 2020 recognizing what happened to the Republicans in midterms in 2018 don't don't doesn't your former party recognize that like Maga might work within the base but to get to that point where you actually have to win the primary you are making yourself Radioactive in the general or is it just like we're in an era of no compromising total polarization and and it just you just win or or and you don't compromise at all well so the answer is twofold at the top like the strategists class they recognize it of course but they're scared of the voters right and so and they're still trying to get their cuts on their on their TV Buys so they can buy their beach houses right and so you know they don't want to go out and say the truth because as soon as you do then you get branded a rhino never Trumper and you don't get work anymore okay so so the smart people recognize this but can't do anything about it the the voters don't recognize it and and here's why because in 2015 and 16 a bunch of people like me and the Republican strategist class said to the voters ran ads you can't support Trump in this primary because he can't win Hillary will beat him I said Hillary would beat him from jail I thought I was being cheeky wrong so these people turns out you were just a few years uh too early on yeah exactly so these people all looked at the supposedly smart establishment class that they had kind of grown to resent anyway and they're like you guys told us he couldn't win you were wrong we were right he won yeah and now you go ahead to 2020 and and most most of them believe that it was fraud so you can't go to them with logic and say this isn't working because they would say back to you no we wanted 16 we won in 20 and the Deep State stole it from us so why would we go a different direction yeah yeah I guess that's like this is an instance where the Republicans own big lie is actually coming down coming out to hurt them oh for sure party in the end I mean it's not you know Democrats aren't hurt by it it's it's the Republicans are basically screwing themselves for sure absolutely you know DeSantis poll numbers peaked in about December of 2022 and they've continued to plunge since then if you were advising him what would you tell him to do differently right now other than of course not letting anybody know what his voice sounds like yeah well that would that would help I don't know that I would have announced in an audio medium you know if I was Rhonda Sanders you want to play to your strengths yeah okay and his voice is in his strength um okay what would I say to Rhonda Santos well uh my first cheeky answer is that if you have a critique of Donald Trump it shouldn't be that he was too nice to gay people I don't think that that's like gonna land with anybody and by the way like who who does that who does that work on nobody that's what I'm saying like oh you know what Santa's told me that Trump was like a huge friend to the games now uh now moving over to distinguisher that doesn't work on anybody so it's just stupid it doesn't even land with mega voters it feels inauthentic I always thought that DeSantis had a good elevator pitch that he's gotten away from um and and this is again I'm not endorsing this because I don't like a lot of his policies in Florida um but but just from a strategic standpoint it was I gave you all of the Mega policies that you wanted the left hated me as much as Trump did and I did it successfully okay we we enacted these policies I won in huge landslides he didn't I like Donald Trump nice guy maybe not a nice guy funny guy but um you know he just didn't he wasn't effective at you know getting the policies enacted when he was president and then he and then he lost and you might think he got it stolen from him but uh but then all that means is he wasn't effective at containing the Deep state and coming up with you know ways to get her right like coming up with policies of his own to get people to the polls like this is what this is about we need to win the left needs to lose we need to drink their tears I did that in Florida go with me I always thought that was like maybe an elevator that could work right and and when he was doing the best in December it's because of that right voters looked and they're like man a lot of these Trump endorse candidates lost them in terms to Santa's one huge I think that was a big part of his surge the problem is once you get down into the details like he's decided to get away from that a little bit and attack Trump from the right on these weird cultural issues and I just think you get into this little extreme right ghetto of super online you have that like fashion fear porn and that's what that anti-lgbt ad was it was like it was way deep like you have to you have to be so terminally online to even understand like the record Chad yeah like like maybe a thousand people right and by the way the median Republican primary voter I don't know the exact numbers on on hand but from like 2016 is about 67 years old and didn't go to college okay yeah so they don't understand you're super online I need to be deep on Reddit and 4chan references so I think that and the other thing that people don't really understand about the Trump 16 primary has Trump did the best with both the far-right voters and the moderate voters because the far-right voter saw him as like oh this guy is like a New York moderate but he's cutting a deal with us yeah you know on the judges on on abortion and I like him and also that was the evangelicals yeah that was the Evangelical still right and so he's like and he'll be mean to the left I like him because of that the moderate voters they looked at him and they're like yeah okay I've always thought that like some people and they're probably were too churchy like imagine your head you know a working class guy that's like doesn't go to church every Sunday isn't like a hard lighter on abortion did you see the porcelain doll that is Mike Pence yeah you're like that's not my guy like I don't want somebody you know if I accidentally knock somebody up I don't want somebody telling me what to do about that right like though that guy they loved Trump so Trump got from both so by trying to get to Trump's right on on all these cultural stuff DeSantis is just going straight down Ted Cruz alley it's just like and he has Ted Cruz advisors so it's like these guys didn't learn anything he's running the Ted Cruz campaign over again and it's crazy and and and so unless he changes course he's just staring down getting his ass kicked just like Ted Cruz did and he'll probably get his wife insulted in the in the process um I wanna I wanna pivot a little bit and talk about Joe Biden for a moment um obviously Republicans are trying to make Biden's age the preeminent issue in this campaign I get that that's a point of concern I'm not I don't wanna I don't want to Discount that he would be the oldest president we've ever had given that the actual election is a binary choice between two people it's probably going to be Biden and Trump uh do you think at the end of the day that the issue of Biden's age it is gonna in any way eclipse the danger of Donald Trump for any of these voters like this is not to suggest that Biden's age isn't an issue because it is but like um so it doesn't Eclipse it for me at all it's not even a close call Donald Trump tried a coup um could it Eclipse it for some voters yeah I think maybe for some I think that if you look at Biden and what I see is a guy who exceeded All my expectations really on on on getting stuff done bipartisan bills infrastructure chips you go down the list but like from a presentation standpoint he just looks really old he does and um and and I think that there are when I talk to people that are outside of politics there are a lot of people that have have concerns about this and who are not like Maga far-right weirdos and you know he just looks old and and so that's something that he's gonna have to to Really Work to to combat and campaigns demonstrating Vigor on the campaign Trail you know getting out there more he has started to do some of this which I'm happy to see because it's going to be a more a more rigorous campaign than 2020 was since it was during covet well you know I had asked the question about DeSantis but if you are advising Joe Biden then what would you tell him to do I mean he has he has different routes that he can go he can go touting the legislative achievements he can go pushing back on you know all the that's being put forward by Republicans the Trump of it all like what what would you advise him to do because he can't do everything yeah you can't do everything no um uh I think that coming from Biden himself you know I think that his messaging has been fine right it's it's focusing on here are the things that we've done I think he could talk about it more here are the things we've done and and literally democracy is a threat on the other side the threat from Trump is too big and I think that's a good contrast for him that he should stick with but but presentation wise like I want to see it I want to see Scranton Joe more man I want to see him out there with the people you know I like the old picture of him with the lady and the you know the bicycle chick on his lap like I want to see biker chicks on his lap you know I want to see him out there do you think they're keeping him that they're they're keeping him contained too much for fear of making a single Gaff that would just kind of overshadow maybe the coolness of like having that moment yeah maybe that's what they're thinking but I I just in this day and age it's a different media environment right like there's constant stuff churns man like a gaff is gonna churn through and I think that they need to have kamla out there more I I I I think that the two my two critiques of the you know Administration right now is one at somebody else besides Joe Biden needs to be the salesperson for this administration because Joe Biden has a ton of strengths and like I said I I he's exceeded my expectations across the board but but his strength isn't like we nailed it on infrastructure we nailed it on chips like we're bringing you the best economy ever but you know like he's not a pat himself in the bad guy he's not a like a really compelling orator like Obama was like he doesn't like he doesn't he's not a braggadocious guy like Trump he doesn't have that so he needs someone else to do that for him and it doesn't feel like they've found somebody to do that so um I I think that is you know getting Biden out there a little bit more and finding someone else to be like really carrying that message it feels like it should be Kamala and and for some reason um you know just it doesn't seem like it has been yeah I want to get into some uh some hot takes here oh I love that all right so this is all everything here uh just as a disclaimer is going to age very poorly okay um well that's that's how we ended up with uh president Jeb no I took Jeb seriously the idea that that's when I'm shooting for the hip anyway um okay who will be the first uh first three Republicans to drop out and who will be the last three Republicans to drop out of the Republican primary hmm okay um I think that the last three I'm gonna take that first um are going to be Trump Vivek and Christy wait so wait so the last three to drop out so you're saying Trump is oh no no who do you think is going to be the the nominee Trump okay so who are going to be the three to drop out to drop out to leave Trump um uh you mean the three to lose the quickest three no no three two three to stay in the longest yeah to try to compete with Trump yeah yeah um like I said I think that I think Christy will just keep fighting down towards the end and um and I I at this point I see DeSantis um fizzling out and and falling behind Vivek and Christy okay so you think the final the fight the final four are gonna be Trump who's gonna be the nominee and then Vivek ramaswamy yes uh Christy and DeSantis who do you think are gonna be the first three to go um I wouldn't be surprised if my pants just cried and and dropped out of the race to after the Tucker Carl's an interview that I just watched a couple hours ago um so I I don't I think that um trying to think about all the people in the field I mean then you've got the ASA Hutchinson's will Hurd uh barely in there uh Nikki's campaign hasn't gone anywhere but you could see her staying around until South Carolina I I would say burgum burgum in North Dakota he's got money he's got money like what's the reason for him what's the reason for him to get out um I might donate I heard you uh I heard if you give a dollar you get a 20 gift yeah I get 19 bucks one of my one of our viewers did that and uh and and got a letter back that like the card's not gonna come for a few weeks so you know so if you need money urgently that is the way to go not a great bridge loan yeah I would say that ASA Pence and Nikki I I just I don't see any of them I think Nikki looks at Tim Scott and sees that he's got more money and a better chance of South Carolina and I think all of them see that they don't really have have a path okay next hot take who are the general election candidates in 2028 oh man uh let's we're skipping okay this full primary yeah we're going right to the next general election let's give them both those primaries too yeah I'm gonna give you what I think what I want for the Democratic side first um I I really think it's gonna be Kamala I think it's gonna be very challenging to beat her I know this is kind of a zag take right now it's like I would think that the vice president would be the next nominee but for whatever reason people are very down on her I just think it's gonna be very challenging to beat a black woman in a Democratic primary and and James Carville has a good uh has a good rule of thumb which is whoever can win in the black churches in the south is going to be the Democratic nominee and who's going to beat her down there I just don't know I don't I don't see it I really love Josh Shapiro though so if things change I think he's done an awesome job as governor of Pennsylvania already it's only been a year what he did with I-95 I think he's great um so anyway uh Kamala and Shapiro maybe that's a ticket on the Republican side I think Donald Trump again in 2028. I mean until until somebody else beats him yeah I know he could run again I don't I don't want to trigger your viewers but he could lose in 2024 there's no rule against not running again yeah so I I guess I'll say Kamala again I never even like I never even considered the process of of more than a decade of my life being spent uh on Donald Trump yeah I think that um I think Trump's looking good if not Trump somebody in like very much in his oof like that's where things and that's my main like that's where things are going you know JD Vance or somebody like that so do you think like I mean how I know I have one more hot take but but do you do you think that if they if they've lost in 2018 in 2020 in 2022 and if they lose in 2024 do you not think the spell will be broken do you think they're like that they look at Donald Trump and say what we need after all these losses is yes I don't know what I'm thinking like and I say the spell will be broken as if it's like one of those zombie movies where like the main zombie like gets killed and the rest of them snap out of it I mean people are people like it your identity is your identity so it's I guess it's not that easy to just no it isn't that easy to just uh to just drop something especially when you've tied so much of your life to it yeah you've got the Hat you've got the Facebook you got your friends associated with it I'll say this the um uh the party is not going back to what it was and and people might decide that Donald Trump himself has too much baggage at some point I don't know why they haven't decided it already but but anytime you talk to voters anytime you listen to a mega focus group anytime on the road like these people hated the old Republican party they didn't like the pro-immigration stuff they didn't like the you know green eye shade cutting you know spending stuff they don't don't want us to do anything overseas like they they loved the culture War like they want some version of Maga so even if Trump if they decide that Trump isn't the right person anymore it will be something in his image not it's not like the party's not coming back to Tim Scott like or you know to any of these guys that just want to like I want to be optimistic and talk about how great America is on the world stage and talk about Freedom yeah that's just not what the people want right okay last hot take does Donald Trump spend a single day in prison I haven't I've been starting to think about this a lot I really hope so I really want it so bad and I've been trying not to Hope I've been trying not to Hope but man I've been pretty impressed with Jack Smith it doesn't seem like he's around it doesn't seem like he's around so I I don't think he spends a day in jail before 2024 jail isn't going to save us from this election we got to save ourselves from Donald Trump one more time but um I'm gonna do a hot take and just say yeah I think he does send a day in jail and we're gonna we'll do a live YouTube Champagne toast when that happens yeah well any uh any conservative Bona fides you had before this or they've been burned yeah that's true um if you want we can talk about uh you know regulatory policy or something I can earn some of them back maybe next time I'm sure that's what's going to do it I'm sure all those Republicans are just waiting on regulatory policy I'm sure that that's the last thing that'll that's the bridge that they were hoping uh hoping you you bring them back on okay uh I want to finish off with some with some Twitter versus threads commentary so I'm wondering which megalom vehicle billionaire you support whose team are you on yeah I I'm I guess I'm Zuck this is like an Iran Iraq war type situation but like here's the thing like we've had to especially as never trumpers have had to learn that that sometimes in life you've got to decide between two shitty options yeah you've got to just decide and you can't just check out right and you can say by someone who's worked in politics for a long time right like you know if you've got two pieces two meals in front of you and like you know one of them is a sandwich and one of them is a mayo sandwich I really don't like Mayo at all but I'm gonna suck I'm gonna suck it up and eat the mayo sandwich and so I'm getting Zuck is the mayo sandwich in this analogy and so um that's where I'm going I I want to see Elon Musk suffer uh and and I want to get some joy out of that and he um you know he's still gonna have a good life because he's very rich man but uh man he's made one of the worst business decisions in history I mean like he's gonna lose 40 something billion on this on this Twitter deal and and I and I I really hope Zuck and Adam and the people at meta fix get threads good enough that that it can really just replace it I agree with that um to to suggest that uh most of what I do is not fueled by uh hate and spite would be uh would be a lie so um you know I've heard criticism that there's concerns that all the libs are going to move to threads all the conservatives are gonna stay at at Twitter and so our media ecosystem will be even more fractured than it already was you work in media in in a very strange subset of the media kind of between both sides anyway um so what's your take on this on on this idea that the media ecosystem will be even more fractured yeah I'm I'm I guess I'm of the opinion that I'm really worried about this but don't have a good solution uh because I think that this was already happening right um I I there is a really a deep lack of appreciation among a lot of folks for just how thick the Maga media bubble is how do you penetrate that I have no idea it's not like the old days where people listen to rush but then got Tom Brokaw at night right like these people are in a completely self-fulfilling like Earth 2 world and when you talk to them and ask them where they're getting the information from like the most normal person is like Ben Shapiro you know what I mean like like this is like they're like they're in a very deep bunker and so how do you penetrate that bunker that's one question I don't know the answer to that um I I think that two progressives to liberals I would say don't do that to yourself like you like you don't need to listen to Steve bannon's podcast but try to be an electric curious like there is it's healthy with for your brain to us to do this to listen to other things and I do my best to to listen and read things across the board I punish myself with I've got a Candace Owens profile coming out next week I spent a month listening to Candace's podcast that's that's a weird World um but I just I want to hear what everybody's saying um but I think that that is probably going to be an outgrowth of the threads thing is a more bifurcation of our social media but I just to me it felt like that was inevitable anyway and so I don't I don't you know I don't think that's a reason not to go to threats yeah there's also the element of the incentive structure on these platforms is not to reward people who are in any way moderate right and so and so even when you do allow voices from the other side to come in the voices that come in are like Dan bongino and and Seb Gorka and like and and the worst actors because they know how to game the system and I've said on threads before too I'm like this is a new platform do not allow these people to like rage bait you into replying and quote tweeting and and doing like engaging with them in any way because they know what they're doing and they know how to game the system and they know that they can you know post something like men can't get pregnant and then just sit back and and watch as like ten thousand lives angrily uh prop up their their post by replying and quote tweeting it and uh and so you know that's what I was hoping for for Threads and and to everybody's credit it does seem like that's that's actually working out pretty well so far yeah dude don't feed the trolls a good policy okay now the next level of uh challenge from here for okay the first step is don't feed the trolls the second step is okay if somebody of good faith offers something that you disagree with you maybe engage with them in good faith or ignore it or don't uh you know don't yell at them and say that they're like a crypto fascist right because like this is the other problem right because you can't you can't have dialogue if the only people you know if you're a lib let's say for short and you're like the only people who are willing to go on your platform are damn bongino trolling you and then other people who do disagree with you they're like oh man I might you know I'm trying to think of a story recently I I was I kind of was with Maureen Dowd on the on the uh Biden grandchild thing right but it's like am I gonna tweet about this like if I tweet about it then like the people that like me are gonna get mad at me and then if you don't are going to troll me you know what I mean and so it would be nice if if we could try to cultivate an environment where you know their disagreement on a few things in a healthy way is also okay and I do feel like we're losing that a little bit that worries me I don't view to your point I don't really view the internet as a place for dialogue anyway I just kind of see it as like as a as a messaging platform at this point I don't think anybody really goes online expecting to have have their opinions Changed by expecting to like engage in in real dialogue maybe that was wishful thinking but I mean that we could have a healthy dialogue but I guess a lower step than that would just be not unnecessarily dunking on people for no good reason and we'll see I mean I do think that threads maybe has that I feel like I mean Twitter got so toxic that that and look I mean I'm not above spending all day dunking on people me neither I love a dunk but but I think that there is something to be said for the possibility of a platform that is just a little less toxic uh a little less overtly toxic where the point of it isn't just isn't just like vile Mayhem every day so we'll see if uh if that's what threads turns into but um let's finish off with this you know Tucker's show his his ratings have been uh going down week over week I think he's at like almost 90 percent down from where he first started um and granted you know the the view count is already wildly distorted it's just Elon just basically counts any uh any impression as a full view if just someone scrolling past it on their timeline but do you think that he ultimately decides to stay on Twitter I think so because there's a little axis of Evil thing going on with with Elon and Tucker and it's mutually beneficial and Elon despite the fact that he's losing a ton of money on on the Twitter deal you know Still's one of the richest guys in the world he's got some cash left yeah so he can throw the bag at Tucker to help him prop up the platform and he needs that he needs a big star to keep people on the platform because it's it's he's not just at risk of losing all the threads you know Trump has his social media there's still getter and all these other right-wing ones out there but to that exact point um when Tucker is the main star on your platform then your platform basically devolves into a far-right platform and when you look at these far-right platforms the Getters the oans the true socials they're not they're not necessarily uh valuable valuable Enterprises right so it isn't in a way he's he's kind of like doing the like like like hurting himself doing the opposite of what he's looking to do by virtue of of devaluing the brand to the extent that he is yeah you know the big advertisers you don't see flocking to get her and parlor um no uh maybe um but I I well hey I think that Tucker excuse me that Elon has not literally but but figuratively taken the red pill to like such a degree that I think that he thinks that Tucker is mainstream and is like speaking truth I I really I don't think it's an act I think that Elon is believing his own and has like gone down this radicalization pipeline so I don't know that he sees Tucker as that you know um uh as Extreme as as he objectively is so I I don't know I think to me that that seems like the deal that they are gonna that they're gonna cut and and the one thing that he will definitely get with Tucker not advertisers is like a significant chunk of the Republican party and of conservative internet users who see themselves as Tucker style Republicans and that's we spent time earlier talking about how tiny the never the anti-trump group is within the Republican Party the Tucker wing of the party is huge and and Tucker was just slay saying you know all of these guys who are Governors the vice president Mike Pence you know went up and he got had to humiliate himself in front of Tucker you know because uh the Republican primary voters like Tucker they will follow him they'll watch his platform and so you know maybe this that sewer platform will just end up being Twitter yeah I mean we'll we'll see how it goes uh look over at uh oan and choose social parlor just uh yeah so we'll see what happens uh Tim where can we see and hear more from you um you can uh hear the bulwark podcast uh every day we have a Next Level podcast at the bulwark on Wednesdays and Sundays I've on Snapchat I got a Snapchat show not my party um you know I'm on MSNBC sometimes I might go in the circus again this fall that kicks back up in October so maybe we can hang out together do like you know so maybe we can argue about something yeah perfect you know if I bring out my old Republican bonus Yeah Tim thanks so much for joining I appreciate it thank you brother thanks for having me thank you

Channel: Brian Tyler Cohen

Views: 1,068,001

Keywords: Brian Tyler Cohen, Trump, Republicans, Democrats, brian cohen, politics, news, tim miller, bulwark

Id: MB7OgmbYqEs

Length: 34min 28sec (2068 seconds)

Published: Sun Jul 16 2023