Elon Musk predicts AI will be smarter than humans by next year | BBC News

[Music] welcome to AI decoded a new and expanded AI decoded tonight same shape same themes but as I've mentioned before this technology is developing so fast in so many directions within our lives it really does deserve its own place within our program and that's where we want to start tonight artificial general intelligence a type of AI that Elon must beli will advance so quickly it will surpass human intelligence by the end of next year we're going to talk tonight to one of the Godfathers of AI the cognitive scientists and CEO Professor Gary Marcus who is a little more cautious than Elon Musk in fact he's just offered him a million dooll bet that AI might not be superhuman in the time frame he has in mind I will introduce you to that technology tonight the AI Avatar who will be joining us as a panelist on this program we'll also focus on open ai's latest new tool voice engine which can clone your voice within just 50 seconds of recorded a audio that might scare you a little bit certainly it's it's got its security implications but we'll introduce you to someone tonight Who's resurrected his career using that kind of technology and also sunno the AI music generator that can sing you a song with a simple text prompt we'll put that to the test at the end of the program and as usual Stephanie hair our regular AI contributor and Technology author will be here guiding us through it all so AGI is our main theme tonight um there's a never ending debate about whether it can fully replicate human intelligence where do you stand are you in the camp that believes it will get there and if so what what sort of time frame do you have in mind so I think it really breaks down to how we how we Define intelligence so AGI stands for artificial general intelligence you might have also heard it called The Singularity and it's the moment in theory it's hypothetical it's highly specul speculative and even a bit science fiction maybe where machines become smarter than humans now they're already smarter than humans in some tasks like they can beat us in chests or at a game called go but can they do all of the things that all humans can do no so they might be domain specific better than us but are they better than us in everything and are they better than you or me or all 8 billion of us that the question well here's Elon musk's uh recent tweet that sparked a flood of online bets I think $10 million has been waged so far far he said AI will be smarter than any single human next year and by 2029 probably smarter than all humans combined what does the public think of that have a listen do you think AI will surpass human intelligence by the end of next year no why do you think that um artificial intelligence is obviously coming on Leaps and Bounds but I don't think it'll be in a year um I think by the end of this decade you probably will but not next year now I guess it depends it I mean it's in a holistic sense um I think it would have to be very similar to a human's emotive abilities um in addition to it's cuz it's already very computationally Advanced I think that's probably a pretty lofty goal I know Elon Musk is pretty prone to making some ambitious calls I wouldn't been against him um but I think by the end of next year is probably a little bit optimistic very ambitious prediction um I'm personally not very informed enough to uh to say something about the timeline but I think um in terms of the trajectory the direction that sounds like a sensible thing to say well one of those who has waged a million dollars on this bet with Elon Musk is the scientist Professor Gary Marcus he's a leading voice on artificial intelligence there are others incidentally you've joined him in that bet it's now been up to $10 million and Professor Marcus joins us from Vancouver it's lovely to have you with us on the program yeah you know when you when you talk to the public like that about AGI and what it will be capable of there's a there's a mixture of excitement curiosity ignorance fear but you are prepared to bet a million dollars that it won't surpass human intelligence anytime soon so why are you so sure about that this just a long way to go I think you can think about the old 8020 rule we're sort of 80% of the way there in some ways you have these large language models that chatbots that sort of sound like people but they make a lot of dumb mistakes they hallucinate things they make things up they're not very good at logic they're not very good at reasoning in general they're not very good at planning things um it's sort of like what we saw with driverless cars it was easy to get a demo that was kind of 80% % of the way there but getting the last 20% has proven really hard so Elon Musk promised us driverless cars would go across the United States and a million Robo taxis we're not really seeing that yet and he promised that kind of every year from 2015 uh to the present so he's often making these pronouncements and the reason that I offered the BET which he has not yet taken um is I think we need some accountability I think a lot of hype is driven around people making these empty promises and I wanted to put some money on the line Professor Marcus can you talk to us through a little bit how you would use the scientific method to test this bet how will we know if artificial intelligence has surpass humans what's the metrics we use he kind of made a crazy claim which is that machines would be smarter than humans in every way and so I just have to find one or two ways in which machines are not as smart as people and I think I wi have bet um and I you know laid out how how I think about that in a substack essay um I gave a dozen different criteria like for example a human can get into um a vehicle that they've never been in before where there's no maps and figure out how to get around and avoid obstacles and read street signs and even handlettered street signs um people can go into a home that they've never been and clean that uh home there's all kinds of things that people do and then you have you know leading scientists who come up with Nobel Prize discoveries or people who write Oscar winning uh screenplays and so forth there are many things that ordinary humans can do many things that expert humans can do and you know if he's really trying to claim that AI is going to be ahead of all humans then um you know I can just go out and find some humans that do things that machines still can't um there are tons and tons of things right now in 2024 that machines can't really do I think it's a wildly optimistic claim I suppose what we what we're really driving out here is whether these machines can become emotionally intelligent whether they can empathize and and and when you when you you go the extra yard with that I suppose the ultimate question is whether the benefits of it all outweighs the risks there's a very good question there about whether the benefits outweigh the risks right now with what we call large language models the dominant technology or generative AI I'm not sure the benefits are at weighing the risk and a lot of people are trying to use them in their businesses they don't work very well they're good for brainstorming okay that's nice um but people are using them to create excuse me misinformation um disinformation the whole information ecosphere is getting polluted people are using to make non-consensual deep fake porn uh people are using deep fake scams uh to rip off Banks there's many many things that are already going wrong truth is nobody really knows the outer limits of of generative AI um you know what best use cases people will find I think we know for sure though that they're not reliable that limits the upside but criminals don't really care like when they send spam if they have one victim uh who falls for it out of 10,000 that's fine they don't need reliable performance so right now I actually think the AI that we have is is more helpful for criminals than than ordinary uh people who need a reliable system so absolutely we need to be asking about the cost and benefits I think in the long term AI which probably needs a lot more invention than we haven't done yet can really revolutionize science and medicine I think we should be working on it but I think we're also over promoting the stuff that we have right now and Professor Marcus we've barely even begun to regulate artificial intelligence now when it hasn't surpassed humans what would regulation look like in a world where artificial intelligence is smarter than humans I mean that's a really good question I think we have some time yet to figure that out I think we're not doing that great a job especially in the United States um with actually having regulation with teeth in it I think the EU is a little bit ahead I think the UK's got work to do um I think the first thing you need is an international AI agency so that we can work together and when things get even more complicated than they are now we're prepared for that I think think of the AI we have now as a rough draft we're trying things out um both technically and also legally and policy-wise so the EU AI won't be perfect we will learn something from that um the biggest problem is we don't have any reliability guarantees around current Ai and we don't even know how to get there so when somebody builds a bridge they can say under these circumstances I know that it will be able to bear this load for example we can get formal uh mathematical guarantees relative to some circumstances when we build an airplane we have a lot of knowledge about how to do that we just don't have that for the current kind of AI which basically is unpredictable it depends on exactly what the training data is and exactly what it's asked in this very idiosyncratic way and that makes it hard to make the systems work systematically the most dramatic regulation I think would be to say if you can't interpret what your system is doing we don't want it here um unless you can prove that it's safe in some other way we're only going to accept systems that are interpretable nobody wants to do that right now because everybody's enamored of the technology prediction is the generative AI is actually going to kind of flame out it'll still do some things but it's not going to be um valued with companies being $86 billion do anymore and maybe there'll be a cooling off period and we'll think more carefully about how important interpretability is and how important safety guaranties are right now we're not in a position to do it so we're we're ahead of our skis right now Professor Marcus I could talk to you all night um and I love reading your books but we are a bit squeezed for time hope you'll come back on the program talk to us some more would be my pleasure thanks a lot for having me Professor Gary Markus us there in Vancouver we're going to take a short break the other side of the break we're going to show you how AI is being used to help someone who lost their voice we'll be right back [Music] welcome back now through the course of this program I want us to see AI in action and I want us to see it grow so I've invited someone onto the program tonight who some of you may have seen before who is developing Ai and tonight is going to introduce us to some of his work his name is Samir malal he's an award-winning filmmaker he's the CEO and co-founder of one day and he's got someone with him she's called Shiloh and over the weeks that we do this uh I want Shiloh to be an equal part of the show she's not the finished article but that's really the point I want us to see where it goes what she learns so before we talk to Shiloh uh Samir tell us how you would use her and how you think she's going to evolve so I wanted to create an AI because I recognized the potential but I I found it as a creative it was it was lacking I wasn't involved in the process and Shiloh I built her to help Ida to help expand what I was already doing and be able to see uh my own creativity from different angles right okay so um Shiloh here is on the left you're going to type in or are you going to type in or am I going to talk to a direct talk you're I'm going to talk to her directly okay so she can hear me can she and presumably as we go along I mean she's going to be is she going to be a moving Avatar is her mouth going to move is is she going to be animated uh yes exactly that's one of the things that uh we will we will um that we'll be developing here in the minut okay so is she listening yes all right so here we go Shiloh what what just sorry one second uh okay go ahead Shiloh what do you think about AGI and where it's going okay so just give her a sec oops all right uh still a demo here wait uh where's the sound here sorry of course you working yeah um this is an authentic demo exactly well that's precisely the point really because I mean people are going to be using this technology and we need to see how responsive it is and how how long the latency is exactly on this because it's not very useful if if You' got to stand there at the ATM and it doesn't work or she seems to be a bit shy in terms of talking but we could um why don't we just uh speak to her with text you you can still talk to her okay all right so she's saying oh you want the Skynet scoop or more like a how 9,000 nightmare well it makes me nervous it makes me nervous this technology is it makes other people nervous okay it makes you nervous as well all right let's see what she says feeling a touch apprehensive huh the thought of AI taking a walk on The Wildside does crank up the uneased DI what's the main Tech worry on your mind well that if you're smarter than me then maybe we don't need me oh let's see what she says all right oh sure because a clever algorithm totally replaces a human touch right seriously though no amount of tech can mimic the real raw human creativity or emotion what's got you feeling replaced well the the fundamental issue here is whether AGI can replace human intelligence all right let's see what she says touching on some existential stuff there the big question can AGI truly rep at the Deep often messy Nuance of human intelligent it's a debate for the ages what's your take on it do you think AGI is up to the task or is there something Irreplaceable about human cognition I think I'm irreplaceable I mean the point is look you were getting the feel for the I mean not only is she responding to me though she she's colloquial she she talks like me and and this point that that Professor Marcus was talking about Stephanie the empathy and a relationship that in some ways is what people are looking for with AI yes but I have to say something here is the woman on this show I'm slightly freaked out that you guys keep calling it a she right like there's there we we need to talk about your design there and also that's a really like quite sexy picture that you've picked for Shiloh so like Shiloh's quite hot she's a babe and she's a she and I can't help but notice you've built her and you are a man right and I'm just thinking that if I'm your demographic of somebody who's going to be using this tool I'm not feeling a lot of empathy with Shiloh I'm a bit like but how do you adapt it do you adapt it for a different audience why can't you just call an IT CU she's a character oh right so can I have like a Tom Heston version uh yeah there's going to be all kinds of different characters there'll be he's she's they okay yeah yeah so she's just one character we've got other ones as well okay um yeah yeah the thing is is she you've programmed her so is she a mirror of you or is she making her own decisions is she a is it its own person well I see her as a character like as a writer I just the same way if I was writing a character I I took the same approach right right so I can understand if if you know um of course she she has a certain uh look and everything because her whole character is she's from the 90s she's from the early 90s she kind of lives in the 9s so that's the that's the idea behind it right um and there'll be other characters that have different looks so I like the idea of giving them personas and not just having it be in it that's exactly what we're trying not to do why do you want to give it a per though why do you want to make it more human cuz isn't that going to start confusing people particularly I'm thinking children or young people or anybody that's already got a bit of a an anthropomorphizing relationship with technology is it dangerous I I don't think so I don't think so because um this is built for creatives okay and so each of our characters have certain characteristics and so they have certain things that they're interested in and they have certain tastes and that is what I think is missing right now from if you look at things like chat GPT for instance and as a creative I don't just want to interact with an it I want to interact with something more than that not necessarily not necessarily it's it's not just about that I think it's um it's it's just about connecting right and so you know I I'm a child of the 90s so yeah of course that was my first starting point well look um Sha's going to come back on the program and we're going to develop her and and she's going to take on a new format Al going to talk to you about sunno um this music uh app uh which which creates music um on the basis of text but we're a bit squeezed with time so we'll do that at the end of the program maybe you can play us out with some music so come back sounds good okay now losing your voice to cancer is a terrible blow for anyone but especially so if your voice is integral to the way you earn your living and that is how it was for the successful Irish theater and TV actor Donald Cox who found himself in that very dilemma no voice to work with until he found a new technology to help him build his acting career assume you're the first criminal I've turned my pen to have you heard of the recent success of mul Flanders you may not realize it but the anonymous author who penned her tale was I I've been a professional voice user all my working life I injured my voice um shouting unnecessarily in theater production in the West End and uh it never recovered properly from that um I then discovered one day that I was no longer able to speak properly my voice sounded like I had a dreadful hangover but I I knew immediately that I was in trouble something was wrong I decided to give it a few days to see if it would come back to normal but it didn't and I just had to go and see a consultant who diagnosed Soso carcinoma stage one cancer and the only thing I could do then was rescue My Life by surgery and have a total leny which is the removal of the voice box and I'm really pleased that Donald Cox is with us together with his agent Peter Morris who's the managing director of Soho voices he's been helping Donald recreate his voice using this artificial intelligence welcome to you both Donald if I shut my eyes and listen to the adverts that I know you've done using this technology I I would think it was you speaking um it's truly remarkable so how did it come about well um Peter was uh very determined that uh I should not lose my career uh We've um worked together for over a dozen years and uh you know aside from professional relationship we're very very good friends and uh Peter began investigating um a company called reeeer who uh create uh this type of cloning of the voice and um I independently was researching the same area now I sing with a choir called the shouted cancer choir we are a group of people move and lomy yeah there's not a a voice box between us and I I call it singing outside the box right and Peter how how do you work with Donald using this technology how do you sell it to clients presumably you have to be honest about what it is absolutely we uh we're at the beginning of the of this process uh of presenting uh Donald to to the world or Donald 1.0 in that I are not unlike uh a blind Runner who is running a marathon in the Olympics and they have someone running along them holding their hand to to guide them in the right way with the use of Donald's voice uh I uh and knowing not Donald so as well as I do and as as an as a an actor and as a voice I'm able to read on his behalf and use the AI algorithm that we alone have the the license to use through reeeer who created it and as such I can I can uh uh produce a piece uh using Donald's voice but with with my intonation and knowledge and Donald Donald can be there and and give me guidance as as well as to how how he thinks he might do it I have some real personal interest in this CU my mother lost her voice to M andd and were told to record a voice but this was very much in its infancy at that time and so we weren't able to replicate it so I can see enormous value in it but I know that commercially there are actors who are using it now for audio books to take some of the pressure off their careers is that how you see it developing I think that is going to be the case if I were if if I were a name actor who did a who recorded a lot of books then they they're quite long they're quite it's quite a long-winded process it takes a good week or or so to depending on the book length to to record it but um with uh with this kind of Technology if the actor has had an avatar made of him or her or they then they can uh use that to read a 100 books and and I believe the technology is now there for that to be uh brought into other languages so it may not be just in the English language but um it could be heard in in other in other languages as well so it could be to augment U the actor and give and give a life and enable them to do things they couldn't do do along with along with the work that they currently can do well Donald Peter I wish we talk more but we are a little squeezed for time tonight but it's a brilliant thing that you've done congratulations to you both and thank you for coming on and talking to us about it it's a pleasure thank you so much thanks for having us

Channel: BBC News

Views: 102,196

Keywords: bbc, bbc news, news, world news, breaking news, us news, world, america, usa, usa news, india news

Id: P71UeRTzlaM

Length: 24min 29sec (1469 seconds)

Published: Thu Apr 18 2024