Dialogue at the Council on Foreign Relations

and please join me in welcoming the Prime Minister today for the council and if I may I'll I'll invite you to start off with a few words just to frame our conversation so this floor is yours well very glad to be back here in Washington again I was here last August last year you've had a change of administration since then I think this is a good moment to be here as ten months into the new administration and a couple of weeks before your president goes on a long and important trip to Asia Northeast Asia China Japan Korea and also to Southeast Asia Vietnam and the Philippines Asia has continued to be a vibrant and very dynamic part of the world the economies are generally doing quite well the Chinese are prospering the Japanese not as badly as before Southeast Asia tagging along moderately and gradually making progress in economic integration amongst the Southeast Asian countries in ASEAN India with mr. Modi having a new sense of drive and direction although his politics never absent at the same time the countries are also getting more closely interlinked and interdependent within Asia I talked about what ASEAN is doing India which hitherto which traditionally has been more inward focus and focus on its subcontinent now with a growing economy is looking for manufacturing investments it has to look for markets overseas it looks for partners in Japan and America in Europe and China particularly has been linking up with a region linking up via trade it's one oh it's the biggest trading partner for nearly everybody else in Asia including Singapore it's got a belt and Road initiative which is a grand strategic plan to enable it to participate in the prosperity of the region and to prosper its neighbors while it grows its influence and there's a scheme which many of his neighbors would like to participate in and it's got an AI IB Asia infrastructure investment back which will be providing financing and urgently needed infrastructure for lots of countries developing and more development so there are a lot of things going on in Asia there are issues in Asia which are urgently needing to be dealt with a North Korean issue for one there are maritime and territorial disputes Senkakus or theory islands the South China Sea there are there is over above all the overriding need to accommodate changing strategic landscape because the Chinese are influential growing more so and need to be accommodated in a stable and constructive way into the regional and global system and how that happens depends on what happens within the region and the dynamics within the region but it also depends on what role America plays and how your role adjusts after 75 years or now soon to be or plus since the war you've held the peace you've provided security you have opened your markets you have developed links across the Pacific and now with a rising set of players on the west coast of the Pacific where does America want to go do you want to be engaged do you want to participate more do you want to deepen your genome economic relations or do you want to find some other balance which really will leave the determination of affairs to other participants in the region it's a question which you have to decide I think you cannot disengage yourself from the region and you look at North Korea it's not going to be easily solved but certainly it will never be solved if you're not there and part of the part of it actively a participant and I think from the point of view of the region we we take comfort that your Secretary's math is Tillerson mcmaster have traveled in their region have stated positions which have given us a lot of comfort and reassurance and you know what is up and you know what you need to do and we look forward to receiving your president soon and hearing similar messages from him because finally he's the commander in chief and he sets the tone and we is not all everybody in the world Friend or Foe needs to know where America stands and Singapore has stood as a friend of the US for many years and we hope to continue so for many more years to come you've met over the course of the last few days of course with the president you've met members of the national security team you've been on the hill this morning what have you gained from your interaction so far when it comes to the key message that you just drove home which is about the importance of the United States in the region I I think I take comfort from the fact that nobody is talking about disengaging I think they're talking about engaging in a different way they feel that there's a feeling an administration that somehow America hasn't got quite as long an end of the stick as it ought to and they would like a rebalance it maybe in terms of blood and treasure and maybe in terms of market rules that maybe in terms of influence in the world but the the world has changed and America would like to have an adjustment I can completely understand that but I am reassured talking to quite a number of the officials certain I haven't met so many on the hill I'm going to be seeing some more some people this afternoon with that they know that America's fate depends on what happens in the rest of the world I think they also know that America because it has taken a very open and generous approach has enabled a stability and prosperity in the world which others have benefited from and so to the United States and you have been the most open market in the world the Europeans deny it but I think it is true the Japanese raised an eyebrow but I think it's also true and now the Americans are saying why should that be so I mean the others should be as open as US I can tolerate the Japanese I could accept them Europeans but now the Chinese are different order of magnitude and they ought to be like us and I think it's reasonable to push for that but if we want that to happen overnight it may well come to grief do you were last year in August of 2016 quite a bit changed since then do you sense that the changes are political they're cyclical in nature or do you sense a fundamental change in America's approach to Asia well it is the result of an election process either those were your rules this is the outcome and the fact that you now has have this outcome has created a new fact you're in a new position the policies which this president will pursue and which his administration will try to implement will create expectations and new results and some things will be done some things will be will become undone whether I mean it could be the Iranian arrangement certainly the TPP is undone and you have we have moved on to a new situation and you cannot go back to where you were it may be you may have a view I mean in politics no party stays in power forever and at some point another party will come in another mood will take over in the country and you have a president who will pursue a different approach but this will be part of would have become part of the discourse part of the expectations and I think would be very very difficult to go back to where you were on the 1st of November 2016 well you've you've been a advocate for the TPP you were disappointed that the United States backed out of the TPP yes what happens now to countries like yours that were so in favor of it well we just accept that what we had put a lot of hopes on is not going to happen and we will make the best of a new situation this is where we are and we try to make progress from here the other 11 members of the TPP negotiations are talking amongst ourselves to see what we can and develop on the basis of the work which has been done on the TPP without a complete new negotiation which nobody has any stomach for and we hope we'll be able to work something out but it is not easy because had we started without the United States we could have worked out a deal it would probably have looked quite different from what we worked out with you when you came in that totally changed the picture because you brought with you first your markets secondly your considerable influence on what you wanted and what you wanted isn't just access to our markets but also rules and intellectual property and human rights and so many other things and having worked out a document the basis of which is that you are the anchor participant and now you're out which parts of this document do I keep and if I undo some part of it will I unravel the whole scheme and that's what our trade ministers are working very hard at how do you think America's withdraw from the TPP and and the general basket of ideas that we call America first here these days how do you think that affects China's role in the region I think the Chinese are watching this carefully on the one hand they'll be concerned about their bilateral relationship with you how where does it go what are you trying to do how can I establish a stable relationship with the United States I mean in China because they they used to not only stable government but taking a long perspective on issues and you in Washington it is not possible to take such a olympian view because your politics changes too quickly that's an understatement and I'm with you 100% yeah so so that's one aspect of it but the other aspect of it is well they've got certain objectives and they will pursue these assiduously quietly farming away and they will make friends and influence people whether or not you are there and if you're not there then everybody else and the world will look around and say I want to be friends with both the US and the Chinese and the Chinese are stocked with him your late father Lee Kuan Yew used to talk about the balance of power that in a sense you have the United States is your greatest trading partner and sorry China's your greatest trading partner but the United States is your greatest security partner is that balance of power becoming more difficult now well it depends how you work out your relationship with the Chinese I mean you need them to deal with a lot of issues they have become more stronger they have become bigger it means that you need the cooperation more not just on bilateral issues but on strategic things I mean to do climate change you must have them otherwise No Deal is reachable to do nuclear non-proliferation you must have them on board to deal with North Korea you must have them on board so if you are able to work with them a stable evolve stable gradually evolving relationship which gives them the space to grow their influence but in a benign way then we are fine we remain friends with both if you become if you have a tense relationship and one or both of the parties say you're either with me or you're against me then we are in a difficult spot it could happen the belton Road initiative which si Jinping of course has overseen the Chinese talk about it as a new basis for stability and security in the region how does it feel to you in the region well I think all of you in the our view in Singapore which is shared by many in the region is a positive thing the Chinese are going to grow their influence it's going to happen how is it going to fit in and this is one coherent framework within which the Asian countries Central Asian Southeast Asian South Asian can participate in this and it means infrastructure it means financing it means connectivity it also means influence and if you ask any of the countries in the region they'll say yes I want to participate I want to trade I want to do the business I'd like them to invest there are political sensitivities but subject to that there's a lot of business which is to be done at the same time the region has prospered not by doing business only with China but also by doing business with America with Europe and the rest of the world and I don't think any of the countries in the region would like to give that up so provided the belton Road happens in such a way that all these external links open stay open and the region remains an open region I think it's a good thing does Belton Road pose a challenge for the United States and and should it do anything to try to poach poses a challenge to the United States the question is how are you going to respond to a China which has got a GDP which is about which will within the next decade or two at most be as big as yours with world trade which is considerable which has financial resources which is considerable and you cannot say that I will deal with them on the basis that they will have an armed force the size of a middling European country and global influence the size of I think it'll be invidious to name anybody but you know what I mean it cannot be they are going to be a power they want to be a big power question is how can that happen constructively and benign and I think that then Road is a constructive way to do it South China Sea East China Sea a subject of great interest to many in this room it's been a subject of obviously interest to you as well how do you see it playing out at the moment do you see tensions continuing to grow is there something United States can play in that process I think they are different the East China Sea that issues between China and Japan these are two countries which have not really come to terms with history of the war and neither of them wants the Senkakus theory dispute to blow up but neither of them is going to give way and therefore you could have a mishap and then you could have an escalation it's already nearly happened more than once that the Japanese arrested a Chinese fishing boat you have people exchanging buzzing aeroplanes buzzing one another sometimes they shower each other with water hoses so you could easily have a mishap and it could be very troublesome you could have a miss happens at South China Sea too but it's different in one very important way which is that the other claimant states in Southeast Asia none of them want to collide with China all of them have got a major relationship with China over many fronts on trade on aid on human resources on direct financing of all kinds of projects and South China Sea is one item it's politically sensitive is nationalist but it's not the only thing in the relationship and they do not want this to blow up the relationship and they will not go to war on this and therefore it sets a limit to how far things can boil over but at the same time of course that means that well a different balance of outcomes can be expected what role would you like to see the United States play in that question the United States is not a claimant state you are user of the South China Sea your ship sail through it Yoko you're much investors your Navy your aircraft says over it you have an interest in freedom of navigation you have an interest in international law Singapore has those interests to freedom of navigation international law stability and security in the region and I think that those are considerations which any president and any national security adviser or state of Defence Department will have to take into account you're gonna be Singapore with chairman of ASEAN beginning next year yes when we look at Southeast Asia today one of the questions we're trying to figure out is whether there are two camps that are forming in effect one camp whether it's Philippines and Malaysia that is creating greater stronger relationship with China and another camp is that the wrong way to look at it how do you how do you see I I think ASEAN works on the basis of consensus is not the 50 states of the United States of America neither is it the 20 odd states of EU these are ten sovereign countries which have come together in an association where there is an agree where there's an alignment of interests and a consensus of views then there's an ASEAN position where there is not then we agree to disagree and we will discuss the matter again one day on strategic issues there is no single strategic perspective the threat assessments fundamental interests that do political positions of the countries are very different Indonesia and the Philippines are archipelago states allow us is a landlocked country there's no border with the South China Sea it has a land border with China Vietnam has border with China have a relationship which goes back 2,000 years and invasions and Wars and coexistence Myanmar Myanmar has a coastline on the Andaman Sea not the South China Sea and their two biggest neighbors are China in India and they very much hope that they have other friends and anybody else who's friends with them is their third friend including the United States they want to be so when you say you want to put them in the dog house well then you reduce them back to their geographic neighbors and that has certain consequences Singapore we're in the middle of all this we are one of the smallest other than Brunei we are the only country in the region in fact in the world with a Chinese ethnic majority and yet not a Chinese country but a multiracial country so our perspectives are all severally different and on some issues the lowest common denominator is basic but still worth having do you see a role you mentioned Myanmar a moment ago do you see a role for ASEAN in terms of addressing the humanitarian crisis there yes yes ASEAN discussed this it's not easy to do because as I said these are sovereign can't and we can't just march in we have no mandate neither the capability but there is a humanitarian crisis and ASEAN issued a statement and we have given humanitarian aid assistance and we will continue to do so this week's a big week in Beijing and I think a lot of people here would be curious for your assessment of what it means to have the nineteenth Party Congress introduced the next generation of leadership now well let's put it differently let's say that it's enshrined si Jinping in office and has opened the next chapter of his leadership how do you think it was enshrined in office only his words alright fair enough Allah knows how do you see it plant what's important about what happened in Beijing this week well he's consolidated si Jinping has consolidated his position he's got a new line up in the core leadership of the Politburo Standing Committee also in the Central Military Commission has got his seaching ping thought inscribed in the Constitution his own leadership position is preeminent at the same time I think there's a purpose to this which is a signal that this is a start of a new face for China and they said they said seems should I a new era and that means Mouse era thumbs era and now see zero and an era which he envisages extending not just for the next five years or even ten years of to terms but extending to 2050 and taking China to 100 years after the Revolution and if you look for difference in emphasis it's what the the Chinese themselves say that with Mao China stood up tangel I ran with thumbless a Fuji live he got wealthy and now with C Chang July to get strong now what does strong mean and that's what everybody will be watching carefully what do you think it means well they here he has set it out in his 14 points in his opening long speech and none of them are completely new starting with the fact that the party must be fully in charge but it and it includes economic growth includes environmental considerations includes the welfare the lives of the people includes strength internationally and including strong Armed Forces so all the ingredients are there which any normal great power would have to pay attention to what you don't know is their balance their tone and wisdom with which these elements will unfold and we will have to wait and see with a generation who have grown up through the Cultural Revolution they've known hardship they've known turmoil they greatly treasure peace and stability where the next generation which has grown up during the period of reform and opening-up that means since 1980 ish and have only seen continuing progress will they be a generation which you might say well now there it's it's from warriors to engineers to poets and artists or will it be that having not known the turbulence they will feel that now that I'm strong let me show the world what I can do and I think that is a big question I think if you ask the present generation they will swear to you that the next generation will make their calculations and know that peace is important I hope so Singapore is one of the largest foreign investors in China according to the Chinese statistics we are the biggest foreign investor in China I think that includes other investments which funnel through China but I take it at face value so you're in an especially good position than to help us try to gauge the health of the Chinese economy there's strength there's weakness how how do you assess it I think there's a lot of energy and vibrance if you look at it qualitatively the sorts of companies which are generating the sort of innovation which they are which which is fermenting in Beijing and jomkwan - and near the University and nan in Shenzhen where people come from all over China and startup companies the mood is not very different from Silicon Valley and the quality of the people and in fact the quality of the companies which are being generated ecology they are they are equal to any in the world they may not have as many companies which are like Google or Facebook but they will look at 10 cent or Alibaba or Huawei well they are not just copying other people's technology so I think that the talent is there the energy is there there are structural issues which have to be dealt with I mean the CEO the SOE ease the taxes what do you do with the whole system the household registration system what do you do with it agricultural sector how do you manage your exchange rate enough banks and your your loans and debts but these things take time to handle on the one hand having talked to their professionals in the economic management we know that they have very competent people who understand all this say they they think and talk using the same jag and translated into Chinese as central bankers and economic managers anyway the question is whether you've got the right combination of the political economic level that means in the Politburo or amongst the top leaders who put this quite higher in their agenda and can make the political decisions and trade-offs in order to stage and to manage very delicate transformations which economically are critical but politically are very hard to do there's been a lot of hope that perhaps when si Jinping enters his second term in office that they may begin to undertake more of these kinds of structural reforms well it could be I think you have more scope to do that but I think that he wants to do many things and he will balance this off against his social objectives as political objectives he's got other strategic preoccupations if you look at his his his speeches at the Congress and also when he announced his list economics is there but it is not the first big guy typically we're going to turn in a moment to the members for questions but before we do I need to get your sense of the PRK you've met with the president recently this is the crisis of the moment in the region and I'm curious you've also of course got the military perspective how serious do you think the risk of confrontation military confrontation is and what do you think the United States should be doing to avoid it well you always have the risk of a miscalculation I think the the this administration has made some very strong statements but at the same time they've made clear that they do not want to go to war North Koreans are not suicidal i they past masters that thunders and alarms and not without success if they are lucky that's how you get it you can get past this hard point if you are not you could have a miscalculation I think so far you have not had a miscalculation we hope that will continue so the difference this time is that they now have more nuclear weapons and they have more powerful missiles ICBMs so that raises the stakes but it doesn't get qualitatively and suddenly change the picture because you have never been able to say you're completely without risk before they develop before their latest missile test so it's up to the United States how you want to respond and what pressure you want to apply to them you have to apply pressure you also have to talk you cannot not talk because if we don't talk you can't get anywhere if you only talk then nothing will happen because you'll just be strung out and you you've been you've gone through this so many times before but to play this game you need to work with the Chinese and you must that the Russians have to be somewhere in the picture and most of all you must have the South Koreans and the Japanese on your side and if they are not on your side you have a hot spot even if we want to do something decisive if the South Koreans are not with you you you can't do that so you have to be able it you have to have that diplomacy as well as that realpolitik in your comments at the Rose go in the other day you mentioned the importance of dialogue are you confident optimist stick that we may get to dialogue before we get to confrontation I think that is a reasonable proposition whether their dialogue will region outcome before you have a confrontation I cannot see we've got microphones here and if I may I'll just remind you please we've got a lot of people with questions and if you can please make sure that we don't have comments or general observations but try to keep it as concise as you can we'll make sure that we cover as many questions as we can and we'll start right here in that fourth row yes William Hauser enter University seminar mr. prime minister how do you manage the ethnic makeup of your cabinet how do I manage the ethnic makeup I choose good people and I hope that I have a multi-ethnic cabinet which so far has been the case I mean we are a multiracial Society I think it is very important that the leadership reflects that and particularly because the our party the People's Action Party has made multiracialism a core tenet of nation-building and our leadership team within the party reflects that and therefore when I choose a cabinet I can choose from amongst good people who are Chinese ethnic descent Malays Indians and others and so far it has worked we'll go right here and then we'll go back to ambassador Negroponte you can ask it all rephrase it to the okay if we can get a mic over there that's great Thank You Evan for taking my question Thank You Prime Minister sorry I'm Lin Kwok from Brookings Institution from Brookings yes thank you I have two questions my first question is do you see the Trump administration as having a coherence quite apart from the issue of North Korea do you see the Trump administration as having a coherence Asia strategy and if so what do you see this as being if not how do you think it hurts the region and US interests and what would you like to see more from the US administration my second question relates to very quickly my second question relates to the party Congress that took place last week and I was wondering whether you could share your thoughts and what the key takeaways for Southeast Asia are from that from that Congress congressional speech thank you well I think the Trump administration is still developing as Asian strategy just as it is still developing as strategies on many parts of the world but we have met your secretaries Malthus has come out to listen has come out the vice president Pence has come out NSA adviser McMaster has come out they have said the right things that has been reassuring they've said that we may be rethinking our approach but we are not disengaging from the region and that's a very important message they want to do more with the region they're looking for a way to do that and we can empathize with that completely I think we're looking forward to hearing the same message when the president comes out in a few weeks time your second question what the Southeast Asia take away from the Chinese party congress i think our conclusion is that they will continue in the direction which they have been going over the last few years they are confirmed in this the leadership team is the team which we expected to see and the key thing is the presidency is still setting in the driver's seat and setting the direction and we will continue to want to do more with China at the same time as we adjust to the realities of a very different Power Balance John Negroponte IVA gave good afternoon mr. Prado thank you for coming to speak to us my question I have one question it goes to the issue of the South China Sea and the matter of ASEAN unity and it seems that it on a number of occasions I can recall at least a couple of ASEAN meetings where there was difficulty in achieving consensus on the South China Sea issue particularly with regard to a code of conduct with respect to the South China Sea do you see better prospects going forward for ASEAN unity which would appear to me to be critical in coming that's been forging some kind of diplomatic solution to this issue well I explained us now why accion countries have different strategic perspectives and nowhere is this more salient than when it comes to the South China Sea because in the South China Sea some are claimant states like Philippines Vietnam Brunei Malaysia some are not claimant states but have a stake in freedom of navigation international law and that includes many of the other ASEAN countries including Singapore some have no coastline they are landlocked but they are adjacent neighbors to China and they do most of their business with China and they have different we're a very different perspective on the issues so when 10 of these countries are in one group and you're looking for consensus I think that consensus cannot be a very encompassing or powerful one it will be significant in terms of saying we want peace we want stability we want to avoid conflict and we would like to have a code of conduct there is no disagreement within ASEAN countries that we would like to have a code of conduct with China we have a framework agreed on of what the code of conduct should contain now the next step is actually to start negotiating this code of conduct which I anticipate will take quite a long time because no sovereign country particularly a big one lightly commits itself to being bound to certain commitments which you can then be held to particularly when the status quo doesn't refined it so to reach a point where the Chinese will agree to be bound by a code of conduct and the osteons are happy with what is in the code of conduct I think this will be the work of several ASEAN chairmanships we hope to start the next year I don't think we will finish it next year we're gonna go right there in the second road micrometer thank you very much welcome mr. prime minister Mike Froman here at the Council on Foreign Relations you know President Obama had the rebalancing strategy that a military element a political element and of course an economic element and obviously it's up to the President Trump so he can always change that strategy he's worth drawn from TPP he's decided not to go to the East Asia Summit what advice would you give him as to what an alternative approach for US strategy toward the region would look like particularly in the economic area and the second or second half question is what advice piece of e China would you give the administration in terms of how to be most effective in securing their interest visa vie China well we had hoped for the TPP it is not to be we move on I mean even if Hillary had won it is not a gon conclude foregone conclusion that the TPP would have passed I mean there would have been a big fight on the hill it may have gone through it may not certainly you can't expect that Trump to come in and then fight for this having denounced it in his campaign so perhaps it's better that he makes his position clear up front and then we move on what is an alternative to the TPP I think it is not the right time to start new ambitious trade negotiations the announced policy of this administration is to work bilaterally and I think the belief is that bilaterally you're bigger than any other partner who's likely to come along and you get a better do you as a result of which I think not that many partners will be keen to deal with you bilaterally well you have to you have to manage that I would say in this situation it's not time to start something new but do no harm don't take steps which will damage the existing cooperation the existing substantial Trade and Investment links which are already there let time pass and maybe in the second term of this administration or the next administration well the stars are in a different configuration and we can look for a different kind of deal you cannot go back to where you were that was a particular time a particular place time and tide has passed you have to find a new alignment of the stars a Hippocratic oath of international diplomacy Johnathan Strom says right there mr. prime minister Jonathan's drumsets from Brookings you've spoken often about the importance of a stable constructive relationship between the United States and China for the region as a whole so the ninety Party Congress just ended President Trump and she will be meeting soon I have two questions first what are your near-term expectations for that important bilateral relationship and secondly as you become the terror Singapore becomes a chair of ASEAN next year what can a Theon do proactively to help as the preeminent multilateral platform in the region to really help tamp down a sort of rivalry that may be emerging thank you well there are first questions similar to what might ask just now about china-us relations I think what we hope you will be able to do is not to solve problems overnight for but to begin to establish a shared frame of reference a mutual understanding how does he think how do I think where are there areas where we can work and then over time we can work things out I think he will try to work deals immediately you can get them and I'm quite sure that on the Chinese side they will have some ready and you can work somehow but I'm not sure if you make quick deals with them that you will first you will make a fundamental breakthrough second that you have the basis for a long-term sound relationship you must have a clear understanding they must have a clear understanding where you stand and you must know have some idea of what engagement you have with them I mean you will not be able to get his bottom card but you must have some idea whether you can talk to him whether you have a line to him whether this is somebody you can do business with or not I think that is important so when si Jinping went to Malibu and all all kinds of naysayers on how and why is it was of Trump to do this and so on but I thought it no harm could come from it because you cannot come to a sudden deal and it's good that the two presidents get to talk to one another and understand one another and I think it turned out well it doesn't mean you made a breakthrough but it was a basis on which thereafter they can talk about many issues and I understand the ring of each other quite frequently and and there is a line you need that life one of the things which Henry Kissinger regularly laments is that the Chinese have a strategic view and the American presidents don't and to some extent he is true he's right he's right but there is there is an exculpation which is that an American president cannot commit his successor so short of committing your successor at the beginning of the term you have the chance to set the tone and to establish an understanding what are you trying to do and then let's work together we have four years in which to work it that the Chinese tell us explicitly that they are looking at the new administration that this is an administration which they say calmly 2e which means utilitarian but what it really means is that which is looking to deal with items one by one and they are not quite sure how to figure out and they are looking for a way to understand you so if you find them inscrutable you must realize that Western this can be inscrutable tool yeah we'll go right there in the middle yeah second row from the back sorry no just towards the back there yep thank you thank you mr. president Sheri Goodman at the Woodrow Wilson Center can you discuss Singapore's interest in the Arctic and your own personal view about how a changing climate is affecting Singapore's security we are keeping an interest in Arctic matters meaning we would like to know how things are developing we have joined the Arctic Council as an observer and we are quite an active observer and the reason is if the North East channel opens up and you can sail from Europe to the Far East via the Arctic north of Siberia that is a shorter route than going through the Suez Canal and Southeast Asia and we are in Southeast Asia and we are an important port and if a shorter route opens up we want to know about it so that's very important sorry and climate change climate change is something which we see all around us if you ask the scientists they will show you co2 charts which are really completely unambiguous they were you can see the the global average temperature charts not quite so unambiguous but very very persuasive and you can see typhoons and hurricanes and in Singapore we don't have Thai food and hurricanes but we do have sea levels which rise because we are low levels where we don't have mountains we have at most low hills and we also see more extreme weather events rainfall which is more intense leading to flooding and I expect we have seen one or two so we are not sure longer periods are more intense droughts which will put stress on our water supply systems so we are watching this very carefully if things happen on a 100 year time frame we have time to respond because we are just less than 300 square miles it I need to raise my land levels by a meter or two well I think I can find ways to do that if it happens faster than that well we will have to scramble let's take another question towards the back and then yeah right in the next row there thanks and then we'll come back up front I thank you mr. prime minister for being here today Andrew Lowenthal with event-driven news I was just wondering if the Singapore business community broadly speaking has felt a chill with respect to doing business in the United States and whether they feel the u.s. as still as open for foreign partnerships and investment as it was previous to this administration thank you I haven't had specific negative concerns we watch carefully or counter whether your trade measures actually there are counter trade measures so when you have anti-dumping cases or countervailing duties we watch because we don't want to be caught up as collateral damage it can happen investments wise you've always had various Cepheus restrictions I am sure they are still there I have not noticed any recent cases we have had cases before which we have had to work through with previous administrations and fortunately were able to work out let's go right here to the third row there Thanks towards the middle I'm Stan Lee Roth retired good to see you back in Washington hey Stan my question is one based on a premise that I hope you can solidly refute and it's a premise that you offered last year which was a TPP is inherently strategic as valuable as it is economically the strategic benefit is greater many observers including myself fear that you were right and that there's a major diminishment of the US strategic position in the region and not just talking about ASEAN all the examples because of time but Australia will talk about reliability what's happened in the Philippines Malaysia seeming a lot closer to the region problems on the reliability of alliances based on some of the things about burden sharing threats to chorus I mean Oh on top of TPP is it really unfair to say something we don't want to see that you were right and that there was a result of TPP not going forward with the United States that the United States is perceived at least in the region as having a diminishing position beyond the inevitability you talked about of a rising China well I think the sea I stand by what I said that the TPP was as valuable strategically as economically the economic dividend was there the strategic dividend goes beyond the participants in the TPP it is a way to link both sides of the Pacific and to strengthen their considerable rationale which already exists for America to be focused and engaged in the region but it is not to be is not to be you've lost the upside who can be helped we will move on it's not to be is an impact on American credibility when you negotiate well I'm I don't think you can measure that and you won't be able to see that overnight but I'm sure that when you want to enter this negotiation with any pot party and it's to end in a treaty which needs confirmation and which will be politically difficult they will yoke the partner will first have to make an assessment how serious is this government of the United States and will it see it through and if it doesn't is it worthwhile spending hundreds of hours and efforts to try and reach a deal which may be politically spiky at home in our countries and then finally it doesn't go through and what was this for so you can never measure these things it's like when you draw a red line and then you don't take it seriously was there pain you didn't see it but I'm quite sure there's an impact sorry we'll go over here right here in the second round thank you Thank You Paula Stern you mentioned India once and I would be very interested in your elaborating on what role you think India can and will play visa vie the relationships between China and the United States in other words is there a bigger role that we will be seen India play India's population is almost the size of China's population and it may even possibly overtake China's population its economy is at a lower level it's about a third the GDP of China and per capita - it's foreign trade is a fraction of the Chinese is one-fifth of what the Chinese are so in terms of economic health and international influence economically it is not where the Chinese are and I'm sure your trade figures with China and with India will bear that out from the point of view of the architecture of the region we have long believed that India has got a very constructive and important role to play and that's why when the East Asia Summit grouping was formed it included all of the ASEAN countries in Southeast Asia it included the Northeast Asian countries China and South Korea and Japan but it also included India as a major participant and Australia and New Zealand for good measure because that for a different reason because Australia and New Zealand there are US allies and a grouping like that it's not likely to turn hostile to the United States for the same reason when we talked about trade agreement on the western side of the Pacific what we call the RCEP if you are not in the business you never have heard of these in their shows but they mean something and it's basically ASEAN Northeast Asia and India again because we wanted India to be an active and constructive participant bringing to the table something extra which and balancing the overall picture so in principle conceptually when President Trump says he's going to go to Asia and he's going to make a suti policy speech and talked about the Indo Pacific that is the right shape question is what exactly were the Indian government do where is their priority focus to what extent are they able to reorient it themselves from the subcontinent externally towards the region and open up and use trade as an instrument of policy just like the Chinese do just as Americans have done in a strategic way and therefore played a full role in the region and that is something to be seen we are hoping that with mr. Modi and with it I think first they said look East now they say make Eastern if some at the East policy that will mean something and it will mean a greater integration of India into the region but it is yet to be seen the format in which the meetings take place in fact is the East Asia Summit which is together with the ASEAN meetings and unfortunately President Trump is unable to make it to this year's East Asia summit meeting but actually that is the forum which could give which gives body to the idea of an Indo Pacific community and we hope that although he can make it this year in future years he'll be able to come next year we are hosting it all right let's go back right there in the middle five rows back yep right there I'm sorry of just behind you and then we'll come to you there at different yeah thank you very much Thank You Prime Minister my name is Tom Kuya with China review news agency of Hong Kong I still remember three years ago right here I asked you a question about Singapore's role in helping cross-trained dialogue and you said Singapore will be happy if they want and we did see a similar meeting in Singapore one and a half year later so right now the situation has changed the communication has been suspended what do you think Singapore's role in this regard to resume the dialogue between the two theis and what's your such action for Beijing and Taipei to break that that lock particularly right after the knighting Party Congress thank you very much I think we have a very limited rule I we hosted the SEMA meeting in November 2015 our job was to provide the room in the teacups that's it is there meeting we were a neutral venue they were both comfortable to come to Singapore and hold a meeting here and we were very happy to be the host and do have some spillover glory they couldn't very well hold it in Shanghai they can't hold it in Taipei they don't want to hold it in Hong Kong so Singapore is a neutral place and I think that that is a useful and we are friends with both sides and therefore it could happen what prevents it from happening now I think that there's a basic difference in perspectives and trust between the two sides because the words matter a great deal abstruse as they may be the 9 1992 consensus whatever that means was the basis on which the Chinese China did business with KMT in Taiwan and now tying one for the DPP has decided that she cannot use those words and she wants to find some other form of words which are different supposedly the same but obviously to her own supporters closer to a green position and therefore ever so slightly friendlier towards a separate Taiwan and the Chinese have said no I'm it doesn't matter what it is this is what we stopped we we we agreed on this is what we will stay on and I can completely understand the Chinese position because if you accept a new form of words you can't go back to the 1992 consensus consensus anymore and by selami tactics one day you will get very close to somewhere where you don't want to be so that's a very hard contradiction to settle the Chinese cannot move I cannot see tying when going back and saying I agree to the 1992 consensus I mean she will lose all credibility and support from her base and therefore you are at an impasse and the best you can hope for is just a standoff and things do not get worse I mean things can go wrong and the Chinese are building up their armed forces including aircraft carriers in case things one day go wrong we hope that they can be put off we'll go right there Thank You mr. prime minister Henry news MC core holdings your grasp of detail is very impressive and contrasts with heads of state some heads of state in this hemisphere I have a domestic political question for you you stay that in politics no party remains in power forever does that apply to Singapore I don't know when it will happen but I will not want to make it happen sooner than it needs to [Laughter] let's go over here right there at the end yeah thank you I'm Francis Seymour with the World Resources Institute and I asked you'd like to ask you to elaborate on your answer to the previous question in which you articulated Singapore's interests in the challenge of climate change and wonder if you would be willing to share with us that a whether and how the issue of climate change has factored into your bilateral dialogues with countries such as the United States and its announced withdrawal from the Paris agreement or with Indonesia and it's recurrent forest fires which also have more direct collateral damage on your country I discussed it with Americans bilaterally I'm not sure maybe my environmental officials would have surely touched base with your with their equivalents counterparts we were active discussing the matter in the Paris talks and helping to shape the consensus which came up and we think that it is a serious global problem and one which cannot be solved without the major emitters which includes the US China India and as well as the BRICS and Singapore we'll do our part I used to say that even we all stopped breathing in Singapore wouldn't save the climate because her so small but we will do our part we can do we can't go beyond that and fall on a sword but I'll share we will do which means bringing down emissions from business as usual and peaking by 2030 with our neighbors with Indonesia the question of haze is to us a question of direct pollution it's not the climate change thing it is just direct particulate in pollution of the environment instead of fresh air you are getting unhealthy smog and that affects many countries in the region and it is something which the ASEAN countries are working together in order to overcome and which I think this Indonesian president Joko be is taking very seriously and it has had an impact in Indonesia I mean we've had a better year this year partly the winds have been favourable but I think significantly it is because the president has put officials jobs on the line and taken a very personal interest and shown that even in a big country you can get definite things done if that boss pays enough attention to it there is the climate change angle to these forest fires in Indonesia and in other countries in bad years when the fires cover thousands of square kilometers of forest then not just the forest by the peat land under the forests which has dried up and become very combustible you are talking about co2 emissions in the order of Giga tons and equivalent to the co2 emissions of a country like Germany and you don't get any joy out of that at all I mean it's not that you needed it to warm your house or to drive your car or to power your of offices computers it just went up in smoke and is causing a problem with global warming so it is a very serious problem which has to be addressed I'll use just the prerogative of the moderator test one last question about about the leadership of Singapore you have said before that you may not stay in office after the age of seven do you have thought at 70 the idea of thoughts about the next prime minister and what I just the question on CNBC so you can look it up what if we don't subscribe to see anything my aim is not to be Prime Minister beyond 70 I'm trying very hard I've got a team in cabinet I've got strong people in the team and amongst themselves they have to take a little bit of time to sort out who should be the next leader well we hope that you will come back in any case and we want to thank you again for your time today please join me in thanking the Prime Minister thank you

Channel: Prime Minister's Office, Singapore

Views: 34,290

Keywords: Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister, Singapore, America, Council of Foreign Affairs, United States

Id: P2srUSteySg

Length: 59min 55sec (3595 seconds)

Published: Wed Oct 25 2017