Could Sunak D-Day disaster cause Tory election wipeout?

the activists I've spoken to the MPS I've spoken to just have their heads in their hands that get sparing messages from advisers this is the kind of thing that's so easy to get right getting it wrong is extraordinary frankly this date was in the diary for eight decades this day should have been penell out in any prime minister's diary you know back in 1944 in the end he's not a toddler he's the Prime Minister and there are things that prime ministers the United Kingdom are supposed to do if there's a poll in the next few days that shows reform and the conservatives neck and neck effectively will that be the sort of the moment people really start to panic hello we've scrambled to bring you a special political forecast because there are moments in an election that come to define the loser and we might just have seen the one for 2024 I'm talking about something on the level of Gordon Brown's bigoted woman hot mic disaster that picture of Ed milleran chewing on a bacon sandwich Theresa May crying nothing has changed after - turning on her Manifesto the fury over rishy sunak leaving the D-Day commemorations early to go and a TV interview had already reached fever pitch by the time he apologized at 7:45 a.m. why would he do it having spent the campaign so far reaching out to the very voters who hold respect for history and Veterans so dear why did his team plan it why did David Cameron who posed in his place for the photos not tell him this was a mistake so is this the moment the game is up and closing the gap on labor becomes unrecoverable Nigel farage is already out there saying it shows sunak isn't patriotic with me conservative homes Henry Hill Boris Johnson's former director of communications GTO Harry and labor Jonathan Ashworth Henry people are angry yeah the I mean the entire but the entire party was angry with Rishi sunak anyway they were angry at being ambushed with general election when they weren't ready and the party wasn't ready they've been angered by cchq uh that's conservative Campaign Headquarters manifestly not being ready to give them the literature they need they've been angry about the way that they've conducted the campaign and now they are out there knocking on doors and they're being asked the question uh Britain in World War II like yes or no right that's something that it's normally fairly easy to be on the right side of as a question so of course the conservative party the activists I've spoken to the MPS I've spoken to just have their heads in their hands that get dis sparing messages from advisers this is the kind of thing that's so easy to get right that you don't get credit for getting it right you know getting it wrong is extraordinary I mean as soon as you saw the photo last night of David Cameron there instead of rishy sunak you know you could go this you know why did nobody think about this and is that what you think happened nobody thought about it or was it deliberate it so I think I don't know in this specific instance exactly what happened but I think a problem that rishy sunx Downing Street had was that it was a real bunker and they kept just doing things inside it without consulting across government without taking advice his three big conference policies were all cooked up without consultation with the department so you know my favorite example he announced the abolition of T levels in t levels week he hadn't told the T levels Minister who then had to go and do the rest of the T levels week media round talking about how great they were and um then here someone should have mentioned it I mean one his excuse was even worse because he came out and said this this this was booked weeks ago it's like okay well that means that someone in your media grid booked an ITV interview over D-Day and no one flagged it and then yet David Cameron should have told it to so if no one else because I can understand Junior advisers maybe were didn't feel able to tell him David Cameron should have had the confidence to say this is this is an insane decision stay where you are G I mean you've been on the inside of these things I mean can can you understand how this happened I can understand how it happens doesn't mean that I think it uh wasn't a disaster it was you know it was a massive dropping of a very very big ball and it could be a seminal moment uh without cutting to that chase all I would say in terms of explanation I feel awkward sort of criticizing people here because they they wrestle with difficult decisions all the time and there are always media demands on a prime minister and if you say no to them and you've probably done this to me you say so your your man is running Running Scared Of The Press Your Man fears scrutiny your man doesn't want to talk to our audience all that is very very powerful and of the different people in the room some want him to see donors some want him to be on the doorsteps some want him to come talk to you um not very many in conservative HQ to be honest with you um and and and so they're competing Dem mans but in the end the prime minister's got to say but this is a no-brainer and this is one of those occasions where despite all those calls where you are between a rock and a hard place and there are lots of those this was a no-brainer and frankly this date was in the diary for eight decades this day should have been penciled out in any prime minister's diary you know back in 1944 and that's why it's it great and that's why it's it's very very damaging and and do you think this is that moment the Jillian Duffy moment the sort of the moment people will it'll come to em you know be emblematic of Rishi Sun's campaign so and I may be clutching as straws here but I'm trying to be honest with you I think it's different in some ways and I'll love to hear what you have to say about this but Jillian Duffy was an example of a prime minister really showing in in in in his own words contempt for members of his own party I don't think I don't think anyone out there genuinely thinks that Rishi sunak wanted a snub the veterans that had Rishi sunak realized the implications of this that he would have taken that decision that this was this was a mess up somewhere in the system and there are massive flaws in the system clearly for this to have happened but I don't think on reflection people will think this guy doesn't get what modern Britain is about he's not patriotic he doesn't care about veterans and that I think hopefully for his sake means he's got some some collateral in the bank whereas with Gordon Brown it did look like you know he thought that the average person who supported labor heart and soul was scum Jonathan I mean you were there you were working for Gordon Brown um in 2010 when that bigoted moment hot mic moment happened yeah um I mean I'm sure you'll disagree with G's sort of uh portrayal of it but I mean when you're in the campaign campaign's not going very well as it wasn't then and then the boss does something like that how does it feel when you're on inside of that campaign I mean it must be terrible oh yes it is it's hugely demoralizing and I suspect in the Tory campaign today there will be people who are on the floor because they're utterly demoralized there'll be they may not start they might not yet be talking to journalists but they will be beginning to blame one another you know what is going on so and so should have looked at this so and so should have looked at that all of that would be going on but I do think though look to sort of describe this as a I know nobody on the panel has but some of the the media have I've just been doing interviews have said oh it's a gaff it's a mid step I think there's something more fundamental than that I think it doeses go to the heart of rishy sunak judgment it does go to his character because in the end he's not a toddler he's the Prime Minister and there are things that Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom are supposed to do they're supposed to turn up at the Senate half and look smart and decent and respectful because everybody knows what happened to Michael vot 40 years ago he wasn't the Prime Minister lead the opposition but you see the point I'm making there are events that Prime Ministers are supposed to do and have to do it well it's part of the job description but when you say it's about his character I mean it doesn't make him a bad man does it touch it makes him out of touch and an alarm Bell should have been going off in his head about staying at this event particularly when he would have been told that there was an was an opportunity to be there with the other nations who were such a central part of what was what was happened 80 years ago I cannot for the life of me understand why he chose to leave early and if it's because he's decided he wanted to do a sort of ITV interview to try and score political points in a in this campaign I think in the end people are now probably asking themselves you know I slightly disagree agree with you in a in a comradely way I think people are going to be asking themselves what sort of individual thinks it's more important to rush away and do that type of interview and not stay for the whole event I think it's a very significant moment in an equally comradely way I don't think any of us should describe going off to do an ITV interview as a you know seizing the opportunity to score points I mean most politicians have got to be dragged Kicking and Screaming to an ITV Studio to face the kind of interrogation they can expect from uh you know someone like you or any of your colleagues upstairs so I I think that's a cheap shot to be honest and this is not a time to be cheap because it's it's it's been a major Judgment of error but I don't think he thought great I can go and talk to a journalist had he turned down ITV he would have been accused of Running Scared honestly he would he could have done the it interview today apparently Downing Street chose the days you know they they were the ones cuz that's what happens you you know you ask when when will you do an interview and you look at those tiny Windows where you can do it I mean I mean the honest thing is it should have been glaringly obvious to anyone in number 10 and I I don't want to sound crude about this or vulgar but they'd have thought the best possible thing even in a selfish way not to mention that it was the right thing to do morally that it was the right thing to do to Play Your Part as a Statesman it was the right thing to do to represent all of us who are not invited out there was to be there but even on a selfish level the right thing to do in terms of general election campaigning was to not campaign yesterday and just to be there day looking like a St but both you and I will have sat in number 10 grid meetings in our time and I just do not get the process that they would have gone through why did someone not say hang on a minute are you really saying he's is going to come back early from the event not do the event with President Biden we'll send uh David Cameron especially when there's all the stuff around how David Cameron looked more like a leader on the world stage anyway I mean I just don't get it you and you've been in those those I can only imagine so I offer this as an imag that what happened was said of course prime minister you're going to be at the big the big gig you're going to be at the service that is the solemn occasion where we remember the dead you're also going to do stuff and then the dinner with macron and and Schultz you know wor forget that and that's what would have happened to be fair Henry I mean lots of fun being had around this you know it's great talking point but isn't it more serious than that as well in that we're talking about D-Day we're talking about veterans there's sort of an there's an a lack of emotional intelligence around the impact of that kind of insult um which is how how many people are seeing it and and that that's the kind of the alarming thing when it comes to sort of how people will judge rich soon you know they'll say you know it's not it's not that he's an idiot or a bad man it's just that he doesn't get it and that's the really dangerous thing yeah it could because as you say as you say no one's walked away from this thinking that that rishy sunak hates the veterans or like thinks D-Day was a waste of time or anything like that but it speaks to judgment and I think In fairness especially for a lot of conservatives this is a concern that many of them have had because rishie became incredibly popular as Chancellor during the pandemic when he had a license to hose money at the country without asking them to pay for it which is an easy way to get very popular as a politician um but if you even back then if you looked at instances where he actually had to use his own political judgment it wasn't amazing and this is almost the encapsulates that and I think that rather than we we've been talking about what the impact of this will be and you know we if this was a close election and the Tes and labor at 30% I think the impact would be bigger in absolute terms the impact of any Scandal is less when you're down at your core vote you think it's over anyway yeah Anything could happen but like they're not going to close 20 points right they could it could get better but could this help the core vote go to Nigel it could it could help some of the core vote go to Nigel farage and I think I think it's the kind of thing that it serves as a shorthand for why somebody turns away from a politician or a party if there's lots of other things that maybe they've had doubt about or they're upset about this is the kind of thing that when that that sums it all up for people he's the prime minister who left the D-Day commemorations that's the real danger if there's a poll in the next few days gizo um that shows reform and the conservatives neck and neck effectively um will that be the sort of the moment people really start to panic no I've always been really hardcore on this reform are out there on the fringes of British politics where they belong and the focus of every conservative who takes pride in being one of the most successful election winning forces in the history of democracy globally should be on The Sweet Spot in the center of British politics where elections are won and lost so forget reform the idea that Nigel farage somehow is the ultimate example of you know Great British patriotism is laughable Penny Morant will be you know debating on behalf of the conservatives tonight proud military family Naval family she served herself as a volunteer there's plenty of people in conservative ranks and to be fair these days you know on on your benches who can do that but you've always been and and the party is not there well re is not the place to go and I think it was a significant moment to be fair um when K surrounded himself with a bunch of people who had served their country unlike Nigel farage um uh backing him I think that's that's a moment but there are plenty of conservatives in that place as well and they will be mortified that this had happened but again it's because we have a clean living hardworking super bright but geeky prime minister and after the man that I worked for that seemed to be what the appetite was for so we have a choice between two rather dull technocratic people neither of whom inspires anyone particularly and the choice is a hard-headed one almost like a head hunter which man is best place to sort of take Brit to the end of the decade and I still think Rishi does a better job there than K did I just ask you a question a genuine question I I I interacted with Boris Johnson in the pandemic when I was the shadow Health secretary I went into Downy Street and had a meeting with him to essentially give him labor support for lockdown that's basically what it was so that's but I've no other than those discussions I've never really had much interaction with Boris Johnson what would Boris Johnson have done if he had spotted his diary like this would he have said would he have said we've got to stay for the whole thing I bet that's on your list of questions as well so I have had friends saying if if if you get and Boris was still there you'd have actually you know landed on the beach in in some sort of ancient Craft um with a bunch of people who were there at the time sort of showing him where exactly it would have happened or he would have you know dropped out of a a chuk whatever so he would have certainly captured the moment and the moment would have resonated uh deeply for him as a man with a great sense of history and all that and no doubt he will write something about all of this uh in the very near future that will be very very resonant and people think wow was he that bad after all you know but but but parking all of that I think you're right he has that sense of occasion and actually everyone should then you pose a good question Christian why why did get David Cameron who is quite surefooted on those looking the part sounding the part playing the part he was quite surefooted that why didn't he say do you know what prime minister much as I'd like to be there this really is one where it's not for the understudy um maybe he was thinking and this will be a good chapter in the book you know well you know he's still got he's still just got time to stand for a seat how does labor play this now though because you know again thinking back to Judi and Duffy the conservatives didn't have to go on about it because it did so much damaged by itself is this the same sort of thing that you you don't need to talk about this do you because it it plays its own story well I mean look I mean you're you're asking me to sort of you know ask if there's a sort of tactical thing here because there are debates over the next few days I'm wondering how you how label will play it I think in the end we strongly believe it does reveal something about which is soon act judgment and character we think in the end it reveals that you know he wanted to get away he wanted to do this political interview suggests he's putting party ahead of country but look you just have to listen to one of the the radio phonin today the the amount of outrage from people on this I mean I mean I think I think the voices of the British people will be heard far louder than the voices of Labor politicians on the on the in the studios in the next few days and what did you think of his let's not politicize this you know because this is about D-Day veterans but he was the guy who returned yesterday to do an interview to repeat what we think are lies about Labor's tax and spend plans I mean same same question about Nigel frage to you really which is you know he's out there already saying this shows the conservative party is now led by a man who is not patriotic and and he will probably pick up some votes over this particular instance that helps the labor party get a bigger majority is it a bad thing that's happening uh uh no look you know I'll leave all the John cures of the world to do all Theology and the uh electoral arithmetic uh analysis what I would say though more broadly is that we we had a lot of uh smarty pants briefing from uh wishi sunak crowd that they was going to spend the first two weeks of this campaign putting reform in its box and then turning their sort of guns onto labor well what's that what that resulted was Nel farage announcing himself as a candidate so I think that's a question for the Tory strategists as to how they appear to have got that so wrong how do you think this week went after the leadership debate where richy sunak clearly landed a message whether it's true or not um it's a number that has now lodged in a lot of people's minds um and that is effective campaigning whether you know whether it's an honorable thing to do what not um you know did that do you some damage well look we were uh we thought it was and consider it a lie and we were and sometimes in politics the smart smarty pants special advisors or political advisers will say never repeat your opponent's um slur against you because that just puts your opponent attack in people in the Forefront of people's minds but we thought it was a lie and we thought we had to be out there exposing it as a lie not least because the particular thing that we consider to be quite devastating for vishak was the way in which he claimed that his position was backed up by impartial treasury civil servants when we all know it's different I mean before I worked in dowy street I worked for Gordon Brown in the treasury we all know that it was produced effectively by treasury special advisers and then when the the paper sorry the beg you pardon the letter came out from the permanent Secretary of the Treasury saying this you can't present this analysis uh this analysis shouldn't be presented in this way I think that exposed Rishi sunak is lying and again I think what was happened today I think compounds that and I think there'll be a lot of doubts in voters Minds know about rishy sunak I mean had you been up against Boris Johnson you'd have been throwing around liar all the time but it's a bit surprising in a way against against Rishi sunak isn't it who's a more technocratic well I think I think it was surprising I think it was surprising the way in which he insisted until he was blew in the face that the Independent Treasury had endorsed the analysis when they hadn't and he still was doing that and his ITV interview that came out yesterday well how do you think you know where's sort of the the graph I mean has any advantage from the debate been canceled out by the post debate reaction and now this Gaff Oh by this Gaff yeah um this G wipes everything out yeah yeah I'd have thought so I mean I mean I think the problem there were several problems with the line that rishy was taking it's really difficult for the conservatives on tax because one he was also simul he simultaneously saying we no one knows what Labor's plan is but also we know it will cost you exactly 2,000 which is slightly confusing but also even using his own maths the Tories are hiking taxes right this is the problem they're trotting out Labor's tax bombshell which is a really really effective campaign tool in 1992 when the conservatives had kept taxes really low and there was a real tangible Gap but now you know the the pension tax that he you know when he when he went after karmer on the you know if I don't get reelected pensions are going to be taxed for the first time the reason that is is because Rishi sunak while Chancellor broke 40 Years of cross-party consensus and froze income tax thresholds and that tax is hitting everyone else now fortunately labor didn't go after him on that because I don't think labor are going to unfreeze income tax thresholds but the Tores don't have a good story to tell on tax they have not cut taxes any headline tax cuts are wiped out by fiscal drag so you can see why he thought he had to do something just try and Lodge a number in the public Consciousness so can you discern what the strategy is coming out of Downing Street now I think a lot of this is contrived on both sides to be honest because you know if you'd gone into the last election said we're going to spend 400 billion dealing with war in Europe a global pandemic everybody was said well you know what planet are you on mate but that's exactly what happened and so I would welcome though it's not going to happen honestly on both sides that the reason conservatives put taxes up is not because uh the party believes in high taxes it patently doesn't and historically that fact is proven but when you spend 400 billion doing something which had near Universal consent for it paying people to be at home staying safe rather than out there at risk of death um there's a bill to be paid at some point so labor being dishonest about that but the conservatives haven't actually explained that that's why taxes have been high under them I suppose you'd say well you tried to pin the global financial crisis on us so well I mean medicine no I mean I would also point out that if you've had uh uh anemic growth for 10 years or so going into the pandemic and it's not true actually we went into the pandemic in good in a good enough state to actually be able to spend 400 billion now this is not a great thing to sort of Bor that's different though isn't it approv borrowing the market the market expect Bor get as you know you wouldn't get a mortgage and you wouldn't get a loan if your credit rating was low as an individual and same goes for a government so the government having sorted the public finances was well place the in covid the markets expected governments to borrow for things like fur that's the difference and going into covid growth in the UK had been anemic and was when we were not in a great place compared to previous decades so so so very briefly I mean where do you think the campaign goes now well I mean next week I suspect we'll see uh uh man Manifesto I think we've got more debate I mean there's a it's not a head-to-head debate but there's the sky debate um um the two leaders are on Sky next week so um why why is starm so reluctant to debate he's not reluctant to debate well he doesn't want to do to many he's doing two um well he's he's debating is is it just when you're when you're leading don't don't take a risk he's debating him so we're going to look I mean you're again but back to where we started when you don't turn up for the media you are accused of ducking scrutiny and ducking debate and I think you're on to something I think K doesn't want to sort of risk being exposed by Rishi sunak um and by a debate and by journalists but you know that's where we're stuck with at the moment so next few days I mean do you can you don't honestly think they can put I racked my brains thinking how can you turn back the clock or do something that looks so deeply patriotic that it that it wipes out what has happened but I think it's got to be one of those where you just say you know what we can't do anything about it we've got to leave it there and carry on because there are still other things to fight about we've got to glance forwards towards the rest of the decade and pose the question for people putting them in the in the loneliness of the polling Booth who do you think is best place to lead Britain to the end of the decade Henry I mean it's this has sort of come at the worst possible time because I think it's next week that postal votes drop which is mostly older voters so at that point The Campaign Will I imagine pivot towards more of the kind of Voters who are who who who vote in person younger voters working age voters and so on I don't know how though like realistically the conservative party is going to drop its Manifesto we'll see what's in it uh see if there's anything in there to cheer up Tory candidates but most of them that I've spoken to they're starting to just run local campaigns they're some of them have said they they've said they're going to start disregarding cchq rules about approving literature like they are just fighting their own seats sounds like total cas else yeah Henry gso Jonathan thank you very much indeed thank you

Channel: Channel 4 News

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Keywords: Channel 4 News, rishi sunak, election contest, general election, opinion poll, election uk 2024, 2024 election, uk general election, polls uk election, uk polls, d-day, d-day sunak, d-day starmer, d-day biden, rishi sunak d-day, breaking news, d-day breaking news, election breaking news, boris johnson, nigel farage, d-day80, debate live, sunak d day, sunak v starmer, sunak latest, election update, uk election update, channel 4 news, election analysis

Id: 7o1vGkOytZc

Length: 25min 33sec (1533 seconds)

Published: Fri Jun 07 2024