Compared vaccine adverse effects

well a warm welcome to today's talk and it's friday the 16th of april already now let's have a quick review of some countries that we're following now the united kingdom the cases are going down but leveling off going down perhaps very gradually the united states slight increases to leveling off canada we know has been going up unfortunately but today i want to look at india which is going up really quite steeply and although the overall numbers per million there don't look particularly high we have to bear in mind that the population in of india is over 1.3 billion people quite huge population in india so putting it in that context this is a lot of cases and a lot of opportunities for new mutants for example to arise but the main concern there is the direction of increase in india and uh things aren't looking particularly good though i've actually had um communication from uh friends and colleagues in india who are healthcare workers there and that they are definitely alarmed and resources are already exhausted to be quite honest in some areas this means in particular parts or in many parts really as more cases come in the number of deaths are going to be higher than they otherwise would have been had good quality healthcare been available for all alas good quality healthcare for all this somewhat of a distant dream in in india anyway let's get down to some figures um so the number of cases um this is the indian government website here 216 850 cases in the last 24 hours and as i say it's the trend that's concerning so here we have it this is uh this here is august september october now that direction is is exponentially uh increasing and really it's quite hard to see what is going to stop that increase at least in the in the medium term so um it is a concern deaths um over a thousand per day 174 000 total we assume that's an underestimate vaccinations 117 million which sounds fantastic but of course that's not yet 10 percent of the whole population so there's a long way to go now it's always good to know what are the infection drivers what is it that's causing this increase in cases wherever cases of anything are increasing it's good to know what the infection drivers are then they can be tackled well um workplaces have been identified which are often crowded and uh often poorly ventilated in india a lot of people work outside but a lot of people now in india increasingly work in places like call centers markets and malls have reopened and these can be pretty busy transport operating at full capacity now if you've been on indian transport at full capacity you know what that means um if if you haven't then um it is just unbelievable people absolutely crammed into uh train training things for example i mean millions of people a day travel on the mumbai uh rail system alone it's it's it's just incredible um um if you haven't experienced it look at some videos and things on that but uh let's basically say the spread is guaranteed in that circumstance weddings indians are obsessed with huge weddings and it's a massive publicity uh prestige thing in india and um it's part of their culture i mean you can't say it's good or bad but um they make a big pallava about weddings and and festivals the uh you know what you call that bigger one that's on now the is it the kumela kumbamela festivals and again people often staying in very uh cramped accommodation again guaranteed spread election rallies probably less worried about those they're outside and there seems to be some new information now in india coming about new variants now not a lot of detail on that but with this amount of viral replication basically new variants are going to be uh going to be guaranteed because the virus mutates when it when it replicates another thing about india that a lot of people don't know is is i'm not saying this is a particular method of spread but prostitution in india is massive so again an opportunity for disease spreading that sort of circumstance um very very uh an awful lot of prostitution in in india not saying it's unique to india it's common in many places but in india it's a particular issue and again everything's multiplied because of the the the pure numbers of the population the whole scale of the population right well yesterday was a bit of a comedy about us i made two miss two mistakes yesterday uh the first one was the population of israel i said 5.2 million i think when i meant 5.2 million vaccines and 9.3 million population well when i say i meant that i got it wrong um so um 9.3 million population in israel and as we see the case is still going down really nicely and we believe this is a herd immunity effect now i have seen videos from israel that does indicate to me that israelis are over relaxing i think they need to give it a bit longer they're not fully there yet the entire population has not been vaccinated the herd immunity effect is probably only in the high 60s 68 69 maybe 70. it would be good to get some more but relaxation is going on in israel unfortunately it's a pity they couldn't just wait for an extra few weeks now the other thing uh yesterday the other correction from yesterday so that's my apologies to the entire population of israel now my apologies to the entire population of the united states because i made it look like their vaccination figures were a lot lower than the vaccination figures in the uk whereas in actual fact they're only a bit lower and the the problem arose because of um different figures now some people sometimes the figures are given as percentage of the whole population in the united states one hour ago on the website that was 37.9 of the whole the whole population whereas the figure i gave for the uk which i think was 62 was of the over 18s so it's not a fair comparison so um my apologies to the entire population of the united states for underestimating your vaccination campaign so at least one dose 37.9 in the states uh 23.6 have had two doses uh 125 million first doses 78 million second doses impressive you get a tick for that that is for sure and for these percentages because they're coming up nicely so from the uk this is the graphic from the uk we say we see it's uh 62 percent there which looks a lot better but actually this is for the population aged over 18 which you can see on the website the real figure for the united united kingdom to compare it to is 48 so it's about 48 of the overall population in the uk and uh basically 38 of the population in the in the united states but the united states is accelerating dramatically whereas in the uk the numbers aren't going up this month as much as we had hoped due to vaccine supply this was anticipated the politicians say that supply is lumpy interesting turn of phrase so um it just shows you get so many figures and um you know it's so easy to to confuse you know like figures for the whole population with figures uh of those over 18 and it gives you different figures so um always got to be careful about what we're looking at so that's the real comparison there so this comes from tony who corrected me on this thank you tony um and tony says this i guess the difference won't bother most news consumers but i'd like to think uh your viewers might be much more discerning absolutely tony we agree 100 okay so um that's sort of a brief news update now for the rest of this video i want to focus on the news uh the the report from um now let's see if we've got it here yeah the the oxford report on um comparative incidents of um thomas formation blood plot formation so this is the report uh now this is oxford university but it's a different part of oxford university that does the vaccination so uh i do believe it's unbiased and this is the pre-print paper now i'm important to stress this is not peer-reviewed this has just come out yesterday but it's got some pretty current information i think is worth um looking at a couple of provisos here the i'm not going to give lots of quotes but that the paper does stress the authors do stress that this data is um somewhat tentative it's the best they can do at the time um but it's going to be constantly evolving so so the the authors do couch it in quite tentative language and i certainly would say that my interpretation of their of their data is is intensive language as well but let's have a look at it because there's some pretty startling stuff in it actually to be quite honest so that's the name of the paper cerebral venous thrombosis um retrospective cohorts study lots of people involved right now the the authors are saying this can help to construct contextualize the risks and benefits from vaccination in this regard and i believe it can and we see the numbers there are pretty good so that is the news report that is the uh the pre-print paper um for your own perusal look at it check it don't take my word for it read it for yourself although it did take me quite a while to make sense of it to be quite honest so i'll give you my interpretation of it um so using electronic health records but they also used information from the european medicines agency as well so already there we have one of their provisos really that they're taking data from different sources and and of course the the electronic health records from the uk are going to store data in slightly different ways to the european medicines agency so but they've done their best to try and smooth that out and of course these are significant academics absolute incidents of cerebral venous thrombosis so cerebral venous thrombosis that's the blood clots in these cerebral sinus veins now in two weeks following now they're looking at the so the first of all they're looking at cerebral venous thrombosis so thrombosis just means blood clot in the two weeks following and by the way they also look at portal venous thrombosis which we'll look at separately but but they're looking at that and they're looking at that in the two weeks following diagnosis of covered 19 and they had over half a million people there influenza they had 172 000 they're looking at previous years and the receipt of the pfizer vaccine or the moderna vaccine in other words the mrna vaccines for covered 19 and they had just under half a million people there now these numbers sound large and indeed these numbers are large obviously but because the um because the incidence of this is so low relatively speaking they did say it's actually hard to get definite figures because you're dealing with uh infrequent events but but let's look at them now i've spread these out as best you can to try and make sense of it but you will have to concentrate as indeed will i uh the incidence of uh cerebral venous thrombosis after covered 19. so after covered 19 within the two weeks after covered 19 uh silver venus thrombosis 39 cases per million after influenza zero cases per million on their data set that was about 179 000 people in that data set so um we see that this is occurring after covered 19 39 per million people incidents of cerebral venous thrombosis after receiving the fisa or the moderna vaccine 4.1 per million people so immediately we see that with the mrna vaccines the risk is 39 per million if you get covered 19 4.1 per million as a result of the the vaccine so we see the vaccine is is the probability after the vaccine is way less than the probability of getting this complication this cerebral venous thrombosis after the disease and they also looked at cell by venus thrombosis incidence observed across the entire health records network and they thought it was 0.41 per million in any two-week period so not nothing but we can see that it's higher after the vaccine i know that appears that it's lower after the influenza but that's because the sample size was under 200 000 and uh much higher after the after having the actual disease so that's the first few numbers to try and uh keep in our heads now they look at the uh the incidence of portal venous thrombosis after covered 19 diagnosis and we see the numbers are way higher so cerebral venous thrombosis it was 39 um portal venous thrombosis 436 like way higher after covered 19. incidence of pulmonary portal venous thrombosis after influenza diagnosis was 98 and after the mrna vaccines it was uh 44 per million now just tell you briefly what what this is now um if we imagine that this is the this is the liver here so so that that's the liver which detoxifies all the basic nasty things that come into the blood and imagine this is the line of the gastrointestinal tract which is about i don't know 10 11 meters or something so it goes all the way from the stomach down to the colon so this is the tube of the gastrointestinal tract now of course in here there's all sorts of bugs and stuff like that so what happens is all the veins that drain this lots of veins of course drain the gastrointestinal tract but what happens is they all drain into one single vein called the hepatic portal vein so that's the portal vein there draining all this blood here from the gi tract and from other organs as well and it drains it into the liver then it goes into the liver and uh in the liver the liver cells detoxify any toxins and process any products of digestion and only then does it drain from the liver via the hepatic veins back into the uh back into the main blood supply which is the inferior vena cava so so that's the hepatic portal vein there it's called portal because it starts in capillaries and it ends in capillaries in the liver and uh so the risk of blood clots in in here that the portal vein as we see were way way higher so it looks like the main thing to worry about is these abdominal blood clots much more so than the um the cerebral venous thrombosis blood clots so incidence of pvt that was after covered 19 that was after the influenza that was after the the fisa ran the modern vaccines um so 44 per million now they did laboratory tests where it was available and they did find out there was a raised d dimer which indicates there's blood clots lowered fibrinogen which is a clotted protein an increased rate of thrombocytopenia so uh in people with cerebral venous thrombosis and the uh portal venous thrombosis so this low platelet thing again was associated with this condition and this condition in people that had covered 19. now we've looked at the last few days that this is higher in people who've had the we're worried about the oxford astrozenica vaccine but it's also hiring people that have had the disease so it looks like this low platelets this thrombocytopenia is also a feature of the disease itself but stick with this a minute um we're nearly done um cell venus thrombosis 20 mortality in two weeks after covered 19. uh portal venous thrombosis almost the same 18.8 in the two weeks so high fatality rate associated with these conditions and people with cerebral venous thrombosis or portal venous thrombosis who had had uh covet 19 were significantly uh that's statistically significantly more likely to die than people that didn't so associated with quite high um fatality rates after covered 19 which of course what they're doing pointing out here is why it's so important to get to get vaccinated [Applause] now the most startling finding though is still coming um so uh latest estimate from the european measures agency uh incidents associated with the oxford vaccine the astrozenica vaccine cerebral venous thrombosis five per million five per million so we noted that with the um here we are incidence of cvt after receiving the fisa or the moderna vaccine 4.4 per million five per million after the uh after the oxford astrozenica vaccine so only slightly higher risk with the oxford astrozenica vaccine so from their data that's the risk with the uh pfizer and the bioentech the the fisa bioentec and the moderna vaccine 4.1 per million uh slightly increase with five per million after the oxford astrozenica vaccine interesting but then this is what knocked me off my chair uh splat splan nick now splat splan nick is uh well sponge nick is the is the um but basically these are the veins that go into the portal vein so but basically the european medicines agency are measuring splanchnic thrombosis the veins that go into the portal vein whereas the uk data measured the blood clots in the portal vein itself so it's a very comparable measurement i would say very comparable measurement um but they found out that there was from the european emergence agency the the splanchnic thrombosis following the oxford vaccine uh they found out that there was 53 cases out of 34 million vaccines that's 1.6 cases per million vaccines 1.6 cases per per million vaccines whereas the incidence of portal venous thrombosis after the pfizer bioentech and the medona vaccines were 44 per million so it looks like with the mrna vaccines you get 44 of these per million whereas with the oxford vaccine you get 1.6 massively less with the oxford vaccine so that kind of raises the question when we look at these figures i think what we're seeing here is that the risk of this abdominal venous thrombosis from the oxford vaccine is is higher with the mrna vaccines compared to the oxford vaccines and yet it looks like the european medicines agency have chosen to focus on the cerebral venous thrombosis which as we've seen are relatively less common so there you go um it just shows you you know if you look at statistics and you look at figures you can kind of pick out whichever ones you want so from this this is telling me that the the risk for cerebral sinus venous thrombosis is slightly higher for uh five per million cases as opposed to four point one per million cases but the risk of the the abdominal spl hispanic um thrombosis is 1.6 per million with the oxford vaccine but 44 per million with the with the um pfizer moderna vaccine that's what that's saying to me take a look at it yourself and see if that was make sense to you but um it shows what this shows is that vaccines are not entirely without risk but the risks of getting the disease um have a much higher associated complication rate so for me i've had my first dose and i can't wait to get my second dose because of the balance of risks but i thought that was interesting and it'll be interesting to see what the european emergence agencies say about this over the next few days okay thank you if you managed to watch all the way to the end of that really quite um quite surprising findings and i'll be interested to see what the official reaction to this is that's us thank you for watching

Channel: Dr. John Campbell

Views: 224,342

Keywords: physiology, nursing, NCLEX, health, disease, biology, medicine, nurse education, medical education, pathophysiology, campbell, human biology, human body

Id: _jFYrpAkQwA

Length: 22min 44sec (1364 seconds)

Published: Fri Apr 16 2021