Cardano: A Realistic Timeline

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about cardano and its native token ada a realistic timeline if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the telegram channel which you can find a link to in the description below we also do have the itc and itc2 state pools i would encourage you to go earn rewards on your ada by joining those stake pools you can find information on how to do that in the description below at staking.into the cryptoverse.com let's go ahead and jump in so ada today is coming in at a very modest 2.28 cents okay 2.28 and of course no one here is is getting out of bed for a 2.20 ada and if you guys remember back in january and february i put out a realistic prediction for ada but i also said hey guys there's going to be periods of time where we go sideways for six to 12 months six to 12 months back then that was not a popular theory of course because we were just going straight up but we can easily use prior market cycles and other cryptocurrencies to see that these things actually do play out for instance with ethereum we saw that happen with ethereum in the last in the last cycle there were two phases where we just went sideways for a long time and you might look at this chart and say well ben this isn't really sideways right what are you talking about this isn't sideways but uh ethereum just went up stop right no because this range here we're basically range bound for a year a whole year over here we were range bound for about half a year okay so when you look at a chart you might be inclined to think oh yeah like it you know i just went straight up but when you actually look at these phases there are long periods of sideways movement and this is what we sort of speculated was going to happen with ada after a crazy move up and the idea that the cycle is gonna you know it's gonna take even longer makes sense to get a long consolidation phase you don't go from two cents to two dollars and and then continue higher usually without proving to the market that two dollars can be held okay you know when you go to these new milestones and new thresholds for these projects the market has to accept it as as the new normal okay there's a lot of buyers of ada down here that maybe weren't buyers of it up here because i mean how they're up 100x right but the longer project you know just spins at a given region you know it probably it probably makes some sense to think well maybe the returns on this project aren't going to be as great as if you bought them down here but that doesn't mean that it can't break out and give you another nice multiple right this is all all a possibility of course and so if this is something we want to talk about right we want to talk about well what is the timeline on ada to actually see a breakout because we really haven't seen one so far and if anything you might say well we sort of already broke out but then we came back down you could argue one could argue that we saw something similar to ethereum i mean it actually put in a new all-time high back in june after its first local high in march but then it still came back down and then i mean it looks kind of scary but it actually dropped when it dropped below the bull market support band it fell another 50 or so but then it went on another crazy rally from this bottom here it went up a very modest 6 800 percent before calming down for another half year okay so when i look at ada today i see okay now it's 227. no one cares about these these these prices right i mean these are it's just we've been at these evaluations forever um but i look at this and say well when might we expect a breakout well i guess one caveat to that is we are assuming that bitcoin holds the line and i mean it has held the line so far if you're you know if you're not sure what i'm talking about with regards to to bitcoin and and holding a line i'm talking about over here where where where bitcoin actually held um the the the 20-week sma and you can even see it on say like the daily time frame bitcoin held the 20-week estimate so so far bitcoin looks pretty healthy okay now we should say that just because it went on a crazy rally last time without looking back doesn't mean it's going to do that this time we would all love for that to happen we also recognize too that another healthy way for for the market to continue would be just subsequent tests of the 20 week to continue showing that there is support every two or three months so we don't want to be too deterministic about anything but so far what have we done we held the 20 week out of support we put in a new local high of beyond what we did early in september so so far bitcoin looks great so what is a realistic timeline for ada well the first caveat is bitcoin continues to hold the line okay and you might say that's a cop out but again bitcoin bitcoin controls the market if bitcoin dumps the whole market's gonna go with it so it's the risks you take with ada it's the risks you take with all coins eta is one of my favorite projects and i told you guys back in 2019 i was loading up on it below 10 cents a lot of people gave me a hard time about it back then here we are today at 2 27 and i'll say the same thing today this is just long reaccumulation in my opinion it's just a really long accumulation um and if we if we sort of draw the lines in the sand to try to figure out where we spend most of our time it's in this region so what's a theoretical timeline that might make sense okay what is the theoretical timeline and i'm not talking about a timeline to go back to three dollars i'm talking about a timeline to break out to five dollars okay when when could that move start not not necessarily when will it end when will we get to five dollars but when could a move to a five dollar aida begin when could it actually begin and i think to you know to really understand that we should look at what happened last time with ada we used to look at what you know what's happened with ethereum we should try to understand you know what bitcoin is doing so again if bitcoin we know the dominance usually it goes up in q4 if bitcoin continues to to do i mean right now it is having having a nice little pullback but again i mean it's it just rallied from 40k to 55k now it's a 53.6 so i mean right this is this is still still fairly fairly normal for for bitcoin to do but the question is how long are we going to spend over here well first of all i don't know if the bull market support ben will hold i mean it ultimately depends on what bitcoin does if bitcoin continues to go up i would speculate that this will hold okay if bitcoin continues to rally it's more likely than not that this will hold if bitcoin goes back down to test the bull market support ban again in a month or two uh then yeah you could you could see this come back down just like aetherium did uh back over here in october through through january of 2015 or 2016 and early 2017. so you could see something like that play out but the argument is it might not matter right it might not change the timeline a whole lot if you go look at what happened last year ada broke out from the bull market support ban in mid to late october or sorry mid to late november it was when it started so we may dubiously speculate that best case scenario if bitcoin does continue the rally after holding the 20-week moving average then maybe mid-november is the time the earliest we we could see a rally take place uh with the idea being that you know bitcoin has a lot to prove still we we still want to see a new all-time high and and if bitcoin does begin a rally then that you know that could be the exact time where a lot of all coins lag behind it not necessarily that they outperformed bitcoin but they could lag behind it at that phase and it could you know bitcoin could drag those all coins up with it so maybe mid-november would be the earliest i could see okay so i would say for me mid-november is really the earliest i could see a breakout happening so i would say there and again i'm not talking about a breakout to three dollars i don't think anyone cares about three dollars at this point i'm talking about a sustained move to say five dollars when could that move occur i i think the earliest it could start not finish because it's going to take us a while to get to five dollars whenever the move starts i think the earliest it would start would be here mid-november um but we also need to recognize too that this accumulation phase could last well beyond november we saw with ethereum it started here in mid-february mid-delay february and we didn't break out here until the following march okay it's almost 13 months if we were to apply that same principle to today and say well this was february mid to late february we might not see that breakout come until march of 2022 okay so when i when i think about how long could this long re-accumulation phase last if i had to dubiously speculate i would say the move to a new paradigm shift and what it means to hold one ada would probably start somewhere in this region somewhere between mid-november until mid-march and maybe i should i should draw this out a little bit more let's say mid to late march okay before before we could we would really see that move begin so what could a move look like between now and then well best case scenario would be they ada just says out to hell with ben's prediction right to helvet ben's prediction he doesn't know what he's talking about which there are times i certainly don't know what i'm talking about um we're just going to go straight up right like there's no there's no nothing necessarily stopping it that'd be the best case scenario to hell with ben's prediction this best case um somewhat as you know i think a somewhat realistic scenario is is to hold the bullmark support band and maybe just kind of hang above it for a little bit and then ultimately begin a breakout somewhere over here that would sort of be a more realistic scenario but still kind of optimistic i'd still say that's still relatively optimistic it doesn't mean it can't happen and it's fine if you're you know if you're if you're a glass half full kind of person maybe that's how you see the world right you want to go with the most optimistic view and it might look like well there's nothing necessarily wrong with saying we can't ride the 20 week here for a few weeks maybe going in for another four or five weeks of holding the bull marks for banana support just like we did last september october and november and then breaking out okay so this might be a more realistic scenario uh for an optimist to take a more pessimistic view what if what if bitcoin still gives us a little bit of trouble for a few months and doesn't cooperate like we want it to and and maybe it goes back down to test the bull market support ban in december rather than going parabolic right well i mean there's always a chance that happens and and even if it does go back to test the bull market support bin now we could always drop below this because remember ethereum dropped below the bull market sport ban in october of 2016 but the interesting thing with bitcoin was if you go look at october of 2016 um which is way back over over here bitcoin was holding the bitcoin held the line and bitcoin held the line and in fact if we look to see what happened back then bitcoin held the line in may it came up in june and then it just came right back down in august to hold the line through october again and it was this pullback that you could argue is what caused ethereum to drop below the bull market support band okay so what would that look like for bitcoin what would a more pessimistic view for ada look like well a more pessimistic view but still realistically optimistic in the sense of bitcoin holding the bulmark scorpion would be okay maybe it goes up for a little bit and then maybe it comes back down and then it holds the bull market's poor bet again but during this type of a move back down ada would likely drop below its own bull market sportband which by the way currently is coming in at very modest 189 to 195 all right so if that were to happen rather than breaking out some time rather than breaking out sometime over here maybe it has to be done for a while and then we break out later in q1 so i look at this and say i do believe that ada will ultimately come out the other side um and i i do think the rally will will ultimately continue i've given you my timeline on on the general range at which that happens um you know in the past i've put out you know price predictions this one's not even a price prediction it's more just like a timeline of when a breakout could could occur with ada uh so i think the one of these two paths is is the most likely either exhibit a or exhibit b a more unrealistic path that i i think everyone would love and to cheer that ben is wrong and that's fine i have my ada position believe me if it breaks out now i'm not gonna be upset at all this will be a more unrealistic scenario um especially i think ada has some work to do there's some some work to prove here uh so you know i'm looking at mid-november through late march as the potential as a potential breakout point that's what i'm looking at for ada um and then if we were to talk about the bare case well the bear case is the market cycle peak for bitcoin's already in and all of this is just noise and and redistribution and all that stuff if that happens then i mean that could get somewhat nasty because then i mean then it just is going to do something like that um i hope that's not the case i i do believe there is overwhelming evidence to suggest that bitcoin's market cycle peak is not 64k i i do not believe that is the market cycle peak i think it has a ways to go beyond that but to cover all bases and to show you that there are people that do believe that the market cycle peak is already in if they are right you need to understand the downside risk so you cert you certainly should not be betting the family farm by any stretch of the imagination um if that's the case and and they're right and i'm wrong and you know all these other models are wrong on chain analysis is wrong uh then yeah i mean there's there is more downside risk but i'm looking at it from from my perspective and the models i'm looking at and what i believe bitcoin uh is is capable of doing and i i use those conclusions to try to figure out what i think a is going to do i think we still have a few more weeks at the very least but that doesn't mean um we won't ultimately break out higher so either exhibit a or exhibit b yeah i mean exhibit b could get a little bit worse right i mean it could always come down further beyond that uh but something something like this is i think um a scenario if bitcoin would uh were to still give us some trouble so i would look at this range right here for a potential move to the upside um interestingly if you go look at the ada bitcoin valuation we're holding the line so far uh this is where ada held the line here here and third time the fourth time you could argue these are two separate times well maybe not but and then here as well so this is an interesting area to see if ada can continue holding the line against bitcoin especially with a fairly volatile bitcoin a to east you know it's been dropping recently um but i i still have high hopes that uh it will it will continue to to perform relatively well and i mean it's sort of sort of an uptrend here maybe we can take this off a log scale and see what it looks like um i've never really looked at this on a on a non-log scale but we went below it here but maybe this is the area to to bounce relatively soon if we want to be a little bit more um conservative maybe we can kind of like that say all right i could come down a little bit more and maybe find find some support at the prior local tops that we saw back in july of 2020 in april of 2019 and in april of 2018. so with all that said i hope this has been informative we do have the premium list prices are going up on the premium list in about a week so make sure you sign up lock in the lower rate if you sign up before that week you get to lock in the lower rate you'll get access to weekly reports and videos the telegram alerts channel the telegram chat room the wrist dashboard the into the cryptoverse app and more i put out tons of daily updates on the telegram alert channel i think more than most people think i do but i am really really active there so check it out into the cryptoverse.com if you're not staking your ada go do it with the itc ic itc 2 stake pull thank you guys for tuning in subscribe click the bell icon to turn on notifications and i will see you next time bye

Channel: Benjamin Cowen

Views: 177,752

Keywords: Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, BTC, XBT, Crypto, Finance, Money, Investing, Blockchain, Wealth, Invest, Bull Market, Bear Market, Bubble, Speculative Bubble, Accumulation, Correction, Crash, Bulls, Bears, Mania, Fear, Greed, FUD, FOMO, Ethereum, ETH, Ether, Altcoins, Alts, Market, Markets

Id: pB8VAZxJFwQ

Length: 17min 50sec (1070 seconds)

Published: Thu Oct 07 2021

Reddit Comments

[u/Kaxton15]

Is cardano really worth investing ?