Bitcoin: Comparing The Bear Markets

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about bitcoin comparing the bear markets if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and check out into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com let's go ahead and jump in so of course we like to do this update every few weeks just to remind ourselves where we theoretically are within the bear market compared to the bear markets that came before this one and the reason why we do this is to just try to have some type of perspective on the whole situation and not say miss the forest for the trees now the first bear market the bitcoin had is this blue line and it more or less just went straight down fairly quickly to the tune of about 94 percent but the 2014 and 2018 bear markets are in green or are in orange and red or so um and you can see that after about the same amount of time from the cycle peak for bitcoin during those uh bear markets we were also around the same roi from the cycle peak okay so a lot of people are saying you know this time feels very different and and the macro is bad and yeah look the macro is bad and the macro is is worse than i i think it has been in prior bear markets mainly because inflation is so high so i'm hoping we can see that come back down but at the end of the day if you just look at the roi as measured from the peak as a function of time we're about where we always have been during this phase of the of the bear market and that's you know about 70 75 down from the all-time high right somewhere in that range 70 is 75 down but you can see that in both of the two prior bear markets we still had eventually another leg down right so i mean i'm not saying that things have to play out the exact same way you guys know they don't history does not have to repeat itself every single bear market for instance if you would use the first bear market to say that that's how the second one has to go clearly that would not have been a great a great strategy but i'm just trying to show you some perspective on the situation for the people that wonder what it would have been like to have been around crypto back in the 2018 bear market you should have some understanding of what it would have been like because at the same time after the peak in that bear market we were about down the same amount and just so you can understand what it would have been like imagine we had another leg down okay now if you can imagine that then then you'd be very similar to what we experienced back in 2018 so a lot of the gains that people saw you know in 2020 and 2021 a lot of the people that made the most were the people who stuck through 2018 stuck through 2019 and then they were able to experience those gains not the people that sort of just pieced out and then came back once they saw it on on um you know popular popular um channels and whatnot so if you look at the roi right now from cycle peak it's 0.283 so it is it is getting relatively low now of course always people want to know what if you measure it from april uh that's what it looks like obviously as a function of time you could argue that it's gone longer than the prior two bear markets if you measure it from april however you guys know me i prefer to be conservative and say well why don't we just take it from the actual price peak of november it also looks like it matches a lot better as well so i mean it's always worthwhile to look at both of them i'm not you know the main reason i do it is just so we can kind of keep an idea of where that would be what it would look like but at the end of the day it really does seem to match a lot better measuring it from november but measuring it from april in terms of the roi from the cycle peak now the interesting thing is if you look say three months out after the bottom that's what it looks like if you look towards the next peak that's what it looks like and you can see that whether you measure it from november right or april it would still suggest i mean it would still seem to me that the suggestion of these prior these prior market cycles is that we'd still have a long way to go i mean you know you come into the accumulation phase and then you go back into the bull market if it's measured from november if you want to measure it from april you could argue that we're a little bit further along but the point is is is these these prior bear markets and accumulation phases show that we should have plenty of time okay theoretically speaking it shows that we should have plenty of time i remember the next bull the next bull market for bitcoin could still be quite a ways away we know the next having isn't until 2024 which is usually a popular narrative uh for the for the bitcoin bill market but also we need access to cheap liquidity and you're not simply going to get that when the fed is are raising interest rates and we're going into a period of quantitative tightening rather than quantitative easing now make no mistake about it the fed will pivot one day but i don't think they're going to start cutting rates uh this year so you know if you look at this sort of chart and you you look at it say towards the next peak and you measure it from november you can kind of see where we potentially are compared to the prior bear markets right like there could be you know there could easily be another leg down eventually um and then into an accumulation phase and then hopefully we gear up for another bull market but i i think patience is often rewarded i mean i told you guys the beginning of this year cash is king in 2022 um that that all coins are incredibly risky and and really you know hedging various ways i think is is somewhat useful unfortunately you know bitcoin is is now sitting at just below 19 000 i'd like to see the dominance of bitcoin go up that's probably the main thing that we haven't seen occur yet i'm still hoping that happens but i'm getting old waiting for it anyways i hope you guys enjoyed the content make sure you subscribe if you're not subscribed give the video a thumbs up hopefully this perspective on where bitcoin is based on the prior bear markets is useful to some of you in order to check out into the crypto vs premium at into the cryptoverse.com thank you guys i'll see you next time bye

Channel: Benjamin Cowen

Views: 70,379

Keywords: Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, BTC, XBT, Crypto, Finance, Money, Investing, Blockchain, Wealth, Invest, Bull Market, Bear Market, Bubble, Speculative Bubble, Accumulation, Correction, Crash, Bulls, Bears, Mania, Fear, Greed, FUD, FOMO, Ethereum, ETH, Ether, Altcoins, Alts, Market, Markets

Id: qyU_4p8KmSc

Length: 5min 58sec (358 seconds)

Published: Tue Sep 06 2022