Can President Xi turn China into a $30 trillion economy by 2035? | Counting the Cost

[Music] hello i'm sami zaydan this is counting the cost on al jazeera your look at the world of business and economics this week on track to become the world's biggest economy this decade president xi sets another more ambitious target can china become a 30 trillion dollar economy by 2035. more than 100 million people lose their jobs in india as modi's government enforces a lockdown millions migrated back to their villages will they return and with supply chains temporarily broken due to the pandemic is vertical farming the answer to our ever increasing demand for food president xi has ambition to double the size of china's economy by the middle of the next decade after mismanaging the pandemic the united states could relinquish its title to being the world's biggest economy by 2028 attempts by the trump administration to restrict access to technology may just be a bump on the road to china's relentless rise but it doesn't come without its challenges in the form of demographics massive debts and geopolitical entanglements so can she hit his ambitious target well right now the world's second largest economy is worth an estimated 14.3 trillion dollars according to the world bank china's economy is expected to grow at its slowest pace since the mao era despite that china is actually expected to register growth of 2 percent for 2020 it's the only g20 nation to do so but to double by 2035 the economy would need to expand about 4.7 percent a year just a little context in 2019 the economy grew at the slowest pace in almost three decades 6.1 percent so some think the target could be easily reached well it was easy to attain double-digit growth as china has with the trillions spent on building road rail and housing across the country not a problem as the economy doubled in value four times between 1980 and 2010 but as it moves its economy towards a more consumer-reliant model its debt tripled to a staggering 43 trillion dollars that's almost three times the size of its economy but that consumer orientation is yielding results retail sales rose to 6.2 trillion dollars last year according to the national bureau of statistics which puts it around 200 billion dollars shy of consumer spending in the american market in 2019 so how does it make the next leap it has ambitions to become a high income country that's defined as gross national product per capita income of 12 375 us dollars or more it also has the challenges though of geopolitical tensions with the united states india and countries around the south china sea joining me now from london then is douglas mcwilliams douglas is the founder of the center for economics and business research good to have you with us so what gives you the confidence that china's economy will overtake the us by 2028 china's got four times the population of the united states so when uh the gdp per capita in china reaches a quarter of that in the united states the total gdp will be bigger um the other thing gives us confidence is that although we can't be precise about the individual year um we've got a pretty decent track record in forecasting the world economy um i'd say we're better than anyone else at it which doesn't mean we're all that good but it means that if we say something it's certainly incorporating the best knowledge that's available what has it got to do though to get to the next milestone which is uh 30 trillion dollars well getting to 30 trillion dollars is not that difficult um i mean we're assuming that chinese growth will slow down very considerably we're expecting rapid growth uh in the bounce-back period because growth last year was pretty close to zero but still just slightly positive we're expecting a rapid bounce back to something like nine percent growth this year but we're expecting by the 2030s that growth will be well below four percent and um we think that china can do that it's based on technology china's got a good record in technology and it's based on the fact that the world is increasingly investing in technological solutions so we think that there's reasonable confidence that it can get there but at what cost in terms of debt right because debt has soared to i think 43 trillion dollars will that have to double again in order to reach a 30 trillion dollar economy debt will continue to grow in china i think some of the debt is sort of manageable some of the debt will have to be sorted in various different ways uh but i think the whole world at the moment is awash with debt we had debt even before the pandemic hit us right and we've got well hang on let me jump in when you say it's going to be have to be sorted in different ways how and what will it mean for the world because china is not you know a small country as we're obviously talking about it china's a managed economy i mean the idea that it's complete free markets is i think a sort of western illusion that china is a much more managed economy sorted in this case means that some of it will have to be written off some of it will have to be swapped for equity uh some of it will have to be managed and people have to take a haircut there's a whole range of different things that happen when you start dealing with debt problems the point is that you don't have to collapse an economy to sort some of the debt problems and of course china's not the only country to have a debt problem uh most western economies now particularly post-pandemic have got debt problems and we're going to have to do some of the things can china move towards a more consumer-led economy and consumer-led growth when its working population is likely to decline for the rest of the century isn't it the working population um is probably at its peak right now and certainly would be expected to be smaller for example by the end of the century the expectation is that the working population in india will be one and a half times bigger than that in china so yes you are seeing changes of that kind but um the chinese at the moment save a very high proportion of what they earn and it is possible as their incomes go up for them to become a more consumer-led economy and indeed that's what president xi is talking about when he talks about growth being based on a dual circulation economy which means that a lot of the growth will be based on domestic demand as well as on export demand which has been the traditional uh leading source of growth when you talk about exports we've got to talk about the u.s where do you see the relationship with the us going yes there is a transition going on in the white house but on the other hand there seems to be bipartisan support for the idea of containing china right i think you and i must be talking to the same people in the incoming administration because certainly the messages that i've got are exactly the same as the ones that you've identified it does look to me as if the incoming biden administration won't be that different on economic grounds um but i think there will be two changes of tone and both could be significant the first is i don't think that the biden administration will be needlessly provocative the trump administration um had a particular style which tended to be to be quite aggressive in language and that kind of thing and say things that on the whole in china were treated quite offensively they they felt that they won't be treated with proper respect i think the biden administration even if it's tough we'll use language that's more emollient and is not designed to offend and i think that could help a working relationship i think the second thing is that it's clear to me that one of the things that the bible administration wants to do is to create greater unity um amongst the other countries in the world and i'm not just talking about the west but i'm talking about um middle east i'm talking about asia um and i think that the the aim of the biden administration is to create a more cohesive group of countries that can negotiate with china and i think probably uh we're in a situation where there is a good opportunity for approximate between the u.s and china um which there was not under the trump administration um whether it happens or not i don't know um it could be that we go in for a period where um they the two administrations test each other but it could just be that we get lucky and that the two superpowers and we're going to be living in a two superpower power world for many years the two superpowers realize that working together will be more successful than trying at least metaphorically to make war it's been great talking to you thanks so much great talking to you thank you very much last march a sudden nationwide lockdown in india prompted internal migration on a massive scale tens of millions of workers returned to their villages after losing their jobs in cities it's estimated more than 120 million people lost their jobs and there were real fears many of the unemployed wouldn't return to work in the cities well the government has announced billions of dollars in aid but it hasn't reached everyone elizabeth piranha reports from new delhi jyothi kumari rides one of the five bicycles she was given after her journey home to the state of bihar made national headlines during india's lockdown in may the 17 year old cycled 1200 kilometers with her injured father sitting behind her she'd gone to take care of him after he was injured in a road accident and was unable to carry on working as a tuk-tuk driver then the lockdown was imposed and with no money they were forced to leave the city of gurgaon [Music] the landlord was asking for rent saying you owe a lot of money so we thought what can we do then i said let's go home and papa said we won't make it but i said we'll do it with all public transport suspended jyothi bought a bike for 15 with the last of their money and they joined a group of people traveling in the same direction despite sleeping on the road at night for seven days her father mohan says they were the lucky ones the people who were in more distress were the elderly the people with young children women carrying big sacks young boys with blisters and this hurt us more because i thought these people will die before us [Music] it was a lockdown which laid bare india's inequality while the government asked people to stay at home more than 10 million who'd worked in cities and states away from their homes were forced to walk back hundreds died on the journey but warnings that workers might not come back to their old jobs didn't come to fruition despite feeling abandoned by the government or their employers when the lockdown was announced many migrant workers have returned to the cities and to construction sites like this one and that's because there isn't enough work for them in rural areas abhijit sharma decided to leave his home in west bengal and travel the 1400 kilometers back from where he'd come he managed to find work again as a labourer everyone was sitting idle at home and there were too many mouths to feed so i thought it's better if i leave because i'll get whatever work is going food and save some money too but economists warn that with the government loosening labour laws this year those workers who have returned are often in a worse situation than they were in before so i would say as far as systemic change is concerned it's we're actually we've gone two steps back in terms of the role of the government providing protection even while we've seen a few temporary relief measures being provided the government announced billions of dollars in aid to help those without work but abhijit and the password say they haven't received any the attention and money jyothi received as gifts have also dried up now she says she just wants to finish school but can't afford to a landmark free trade agreement between african nations came into effect on january the first its implementation has been delayed because of the pandemic 55 nations signed up after it was finalized at the african union summit last july well under the deal tariffs on ninety percent of goods will be eliminated the world bank says it'll increase the continent's income by 450 billion dollars by 2035. the agency also says africa's exports will get a 560 billion dollar boost and the free trade agreement promises to lift 30 million africans out of extreme poverty al jazeera zachary dries has more from nyami niger workers at this garment factory rushed to deliver thousands of face masks the owner says more than two and a half million were met here to help nigeria control the spread of covet 19 but as the africa free trade agreement comes into effect he foresees trouble ahead for the continent's poorer countries small and poor economies will always be at a disadvantage hopefully as time goes on we can get special considerations otherwise it will be difficult to compete businesses in poor countries may have their concerns but overall experts say the agreement will eventually benefit them they believe the cheap cost of labor in these countries will attract more industries into african trade can spur industrial development the level and pace of industrialization among african countries vary some will have advantage over others but african countries need to buy and sell raw and finished products among themselves landlocked tunisia currently imports most of its needs from bottled water to food and machinery from big retail to local markets nigeria is flooded with imported products because of its weak infrastructure and industrial base the country will continue to depend on imports making it difficult for local industries to grow experts say it's hard to see european and asian multinational companies giving up the trade advantage they've held in africa for a century products from europe asia and africa's larger economies lined the shelves at nyami's biggest retail monopoly consumers prefer these brands traders say there won't be many local goods on store shelves unless government steps in we should be given support government should facilitate easy acquisition of land and loans from banks but it's hard to see how governments on the continent can do that without breaching the protectionism rules of africa trade agreement and the world trade organization now the pandemic disrupted some of the world's well-oiled global supply chains the spotlight has been thrown onto food security and the environmental costs of flying in food from thousands of miles away but land within city limits can be expensive the solution may be grow vertical al jazeera's paul reese reports from stockholm it's harvest time but not as we know it these very modern farmhands are bringing in the crops from a vertical farm plants growing from the walls instead of the ground no tractors required just a pair of scissors and artificial intelligence sensors that feed information on factors like speed of growth and nutrition content into a central database so that on this farm the computer is in charge the farm that you're seeing here everything is basically connected so all the parameters that we have that have an influence on the growth of the plant we're controlling them we're building our basically food brain they control everything by help of artificial intelligence and we create the perfect plant the mint basil kale and rocket here get everything they could ever desire light water humidity temperature tailored to their individual needs and without the risky business of growing out in nature anyone inside the farm has to wear a protective suit like this to stop bacteria coming in from outside it also means they don't need pesticides so you can eat the produce straight off the wall they taste better than the average supermarket salad and they're already being sold in local stores and restaurants in stockholm and local means local the swee green farm hidden under this building and an old newspaper archive is part of a program called neighbour food it aims to give all urban swedes access to produce grown within yards of their door the global movement in urban farming could play a vital role in preventing food crises as covert 19 exposes weaknesses in the supply chain that have left people hungry everywhere from zimbabwe to the u.s the climate crisis the epidemic ongoing right now has shown us how vulnerable we are in the cities we've become very passive consumers we want to turn that around and where people start producing in the spaces that are otherwise empty those spaces below our buildings can be used for food production this farm's so-called food brain is available on subscriptions so any startups can have their own environment controlled from here it could make vertical farming a growth industry that puts more food within easy reach at a time when it's most needed now i just want to show you this before we start our discussion on whether vertical farming has a future this is a silicon valley startup called plenty it's backed by softbank the former chairman of google and amazon's jeff bezos now they've collectively plowed 400 million dollars into the ag tech company plenty claims its vertical farm can produce the same quantity of fruit and vegetable as a 720 acre flat farm but on only two acres how well by using artificial intelligence and robots it's able to use 95 percent less water and 99 percent less land well let's bring in our guests from wagner university in the netherlands leo marsalis leo is head of the horticulture and product physiology group good to have you with us so is it possible to feed the world through vertical farming well what we have to consider in vertical farming we can in fact grow every crop i would say technically we can grow just any crop any crop will do very well can we grow enough of it though yes we could if we of course we would need to build them and then we could grow definitely the question is if it is for every crop economic feasible and i think this is in particular very well economically feasible for fresh vegetables what about the produce though does it end up with the same nutrients as those grown in the natural environment if there is still such a thing as a natural environment in this day and age yeah so this nutritional value of the crops very much depends on how we grow them and in these systems we can grow or we can choose the conditions that we need so i would say in the end we can grow with a better nutritional value and a better quality of course you have to make the right choices how we grow them we can choose to do it better all right so explain the process to us how can you grow things using less chemicals not using genetically modified seeds and yet still keep the yields high so it is we grow in inside everything is controlled if no pests or diseases get in you also don't need to destroy it so that is because there's a closed system we keep the pests and diseases out if you keep them out you don't need pesticides to destroy them with respect to the water we grow them for water and nutrients we grow the plants directly in the water with the nutrients or we might need use a substrate like rock wool the idea is that all the water that we supply too much is being reused it's collected and reused so it makes no loss of water and no loss of nutrients then there is still a loss of water by transpiration of the plants but that ends up as water vapor but in these closed indoor systems you can also collect the water vapor so and that makes that you hardly use any water well and how do we then get so high yield and that's because we can control the temperature we can control the light intensity so how much light but also the color of the light we can control the air humidity because we can control all those factors we can get a higher growth rate although i should say we still need electricity because we use lamps and the lamps need a lot of electricity so we have to realize that this system needs electricity well i'm glad you mentioned that because i was just about to jump in and say well it might be water efficient but it does use a lot of electricity isn't that still a challenge it's got to become more energy efficient right i would say at this moment the electricity used is one of the major challenges and that's also in our research that we have decided well this is what we need to improve that is by using more efficient lighting but in fact in particular one how can we further improve the the efficiency of the plant growth so although it is already very efficient we see there are still a lot of opportunities to make it more efficient so we have to grow still have a higher growth rate with less light if there is less light we use less electricity then it is about further improving the whole climate control system um and that's definitely a challenge and a challenge we are working on at this moment to to drastically improve that aspect as well all right now what i'm wondering is there was an approach by some resource poor nations to go and buy land in developing countries sovereign wealth funds were doing that does vertical farming mean that that approach is now a thing of the past yeah probably this is more on um a political issue on how it is dealt with i would say with vertical farming we can prove we can get a lot of production on a very small land area we hardly need any land area but as i indicated i think this is in particular suitable for fresh vegetables and it is not so much or not economic feasible for the grain crop all right it's been good to get your thoughts fascinating discussion thank you so much okay you're welcome and that's our show for this week there's more for you online though at al jazeera.com ctc that'll take you straight to our page which has entire episodes for you to catch up on that's it for this edition of county the cost i'm sami zaydan from the whole team here thanks for joining us the news on al jazeera is [Music] 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Keywords: youtube, aljazeera.com, global economy, al jazeera, business, united states, aljazeera, aljazeera english, economy, al jazeera english, business and economy, aljazeera news, china, coronavirus pandemic, geopolitics, aljazeera live, debt

Id: A1r9Fs3alWc

Length: 25min 25sec (1525 seconds)

Published: Sat Jan 16 2021