Can BJP Win 370 Seats? | Lok Sabha Elections 2024 | Nothing But The Truth

nothing but the truth hello I'm Raj chup of India today and your host for nothing but the truth every week I will bring you insights and Clarity on a major topical issue that matters to you without holding back on the [Music] truth with the dates uh for the general election the all important general election 2024 being announced on March 15th we are going to see the world's largest democracy give its verdict across seven phases that begins on April 19th and ends on June 1st with the counting to begin on June 4th while many pollsters think it is a done deal and that the BJP the ruling Bara J party will cruise to a third consecutive majority no political party should take the Indian voter for granted so the big questions are will the B JP not only win a majority but get the phenomenal 370 seats they aspiring for and of course looking for uh the NDA to get uh a record 404 seats Also let's examine what are the key factors and in the issues that will determine the outcome of the elections what are the ruling BJP strengths and where will they be challenged the most can the opposition particularly the India Alliance stage a recovery and push the BJP below the majority mark so to answer these big questions I am delighted to welcome to the show a theologist pradep Gupta founder of AIS my India pradep has a highly successful track record especially for the India Today group so pradep Gupta welcome to the show thank you very much now pradep let's get to the key question the BJP aspires to move its Tally from 303 seats to 370 this time and push the NDA by another seats to cross 400 this time what do you think is the key things that the BJP needs to do if it has to bump its entire both its own tally as well as that of the NDA so thank you Raj for inviting me to your show now coming to the BJP ter of 370 and NDA 400 plus that is what has been projected by prime minister Narendra Modi now we will try and figure out various possibilities if it is possible or otherwise right so I have divided the whole India the 543 parliamentary constituencies in three groups okay one group is that group number one where there are about 257 250 odd seats out of which BJP has at the NDA I'm using J of NDA only you know for the better Clarity and understanding rather than using BJP so I'm using NDA that is better and what is the NDA tell last time the 2019 election result was 352 seats meaning they need 48 more seats to cross 400 Mark what they've been projecting for absolutely absolutely now I have divided these states into three major groups where as I mentioned total 257 seats out of which NDA has won 230 seat meaning out of 250 OD roughly 240 seats meaning strike rate of more than 95% right more than 95% and which are these and which are these states classified under this group by me yeah maharash biar madha Pradesh K Gujarat Rajasthan jarand chtis Gad harana Delhi utarak and some UT and Himachal Pradesh right so there is no room to grow further for sure in this group we are sitting at the maximum level possible as far as the NDA goes coming to the group two where NDA has done very good but not as good as group one right which are these states in this group utar Pradesh bangal urisa telengana Assam and Northeastern states apart from Assam which is 11 seats it contributes to right so these are total about 185 seats BJP NDA has won one9 roughly 60% strike rate okay as against 9 % yeah so out of this 185 seats BJP has one NDA has won 109 and lost in 76 so here there is some room to improve NDA tell out of these 76 seats which they lost and particularly on utar Pradesh NDA 164 there is a room for 16 seats Bengal NDA or BJP 18 seats there is a room for 24 seats right out of 21 total seats BJP won eight seats so there is a room for at least 13 seats and Telangana out of 17 BJP won four seats so there is a room for 1 seats this is where I see if at all possibility to improve the T this is the group but Max to Max 20 30 seats what else out of this 7 77 seat 76 seat which they lost last already they had the strike rate of 60% in this group right now the group three well bgp has the strike rate of 5% or NDA has the strike rate of 5% meaning 95% seats won by opposition parties wow which are these State Tamil Nadu and pondicheri 40 seats Kerala 20 seats Andra Pradesh 25 seats Punjab 13 seats and Kashmir three seats right which totaling to 100 odd seats and BJP or the NDA could one only five and that do in the alliance of Aid MK Aid MK won one seat right in Tamil Nadu in Punjab in Alliance with akali where BJP and akali with Alliance as NDA they want two seats each this time at at this point of time till now there is no Alliance of BJP or NDA as far as Aid MK or aali meaning BJP or NDA won here only two seats in or that two of Punjab MH they lost 98 seats big room is there but the question is and this is this is the precisely reason why we all witnessing Prime Minister Modi what we call it South surgeon he's been there in all these three states making all possible efforts in Tamil Nadu Kerala and in last 10 days at least we have seen he has visited two to three times in each of these states right so this is the total thing but having said that this is the one side of the story the possibility from NDA point of view which you ask for now let's come to the other side of the story and then I'm going to drill down the numbers for you on each one if you sit on the opposition side which is the India Alliance and of course the other Regional parties that may not have joined the alliance their POS their chances of winning seems to be really if they able to bring from what you have described able to bring the BJP down to below 272 uh and thereby in some senses threatening Mr Narendra Modi prime minister's Reign and then of course it becomes anybody's game if they able to drop the BJP to 230 where do you see them making a mark what are their strengths and what are the challenges they face if you take it from the other side you've looked at the BJP side so as you pointed out strength that anybody can see that where the strength lies as far as the opposition goes which is which is the get unit uned to put forward some kind of a fight MH which this opposition all the parties realize this particularly starting one year back nitish Kumar realized this when he was with the opposition fold with the India Alliance fold and he try and stit the Coalition he visited practically to all most of the big States in including of urisa including ofisa of course he visited Maharashtra he visited West Bengal he visited urisa he visited Andra Pradesh Telangana Tamil Nadu everywhere try and Forge the alliance right why is that so because BJP alone in this 19 election could secure 37.8% vote share meaning right the the 62% of vote share is there to grab I'm not saying and nobody is saying that that all 62% can be grabbed no even out of this 62% point if you can secure all put together the 40% you are ahead of BJP or the NDA in that sense because they won 37% last time BJP alone won 37% what was the percentage that the NDA won NDA was 45% the 7% then what had happened after then and now in after last one year jdu which secured 16 seats is too big a number Sia they won 19 seats two big them aali though they secur two seats for the sizable vot share in Punjab aidm though they W one seat but the vote share is too large being a main opposition party in Tamil Nadu all these parties is not part of NDA one year back right so this is the strength and the possibility which everybody is the opposition parties were riding upon but problem is every time they try and do from 1977 to 1989 to 19 even 96 and 98 the BJP were on the other side and they also try and put this coalition government but it was never successful in fact third time uh BJP under the leadership of pelari bajp could L five years from 199 to 2004 right and why that happen so because they have badly in 13 days government and 13 month government fall flat because of socalled opposition Unity right so nobody wanted another election in the span of four years the third election so they lost for all five years right and then finally there the BJP the India signing lost the election general election 2004 yeah so this is the story now why this is happening and if you see who are these opposition parties except left parties mhm which has hardly any relevance they could not win even a single seat in Alliance with congress party in Assembly election in Bengal 2021 Assembly Election they could not out of 294 neither Congress need nor left party could win a single seat can you imagine right so why is this happening why they are falling flat because whether Bal or Tamil Nadu or Kashmir or Andra Pradesh or whatever you call it sub it is right which is in the very weak Turf that is number one point and second point is that all the these regional party emerge on the cost of congress party and these Regional part because Congress what does it relevance is based out of Congress so if the and concede the space to the Congress right which is not the cas that is the reason why you see jumar which is a big blow he was supposed to be a founder of India in that sense m PDP or National Conference Alliance so this back to this is the problem as a leader who are you as a party who are you what is your objective why you are in the existence you are represent presenting people you are a public representative and you are seeking the Mandate for this very purpose and because of self-interest of individual or the family or the parar or the party you are losing and losing again and again right so I mean but if you look at the uh now if you look at what has happened okay the BJP very smartly moved and broke up the Maharashtra MVA uh you know the Maharashtra vikasa and split the Shiva there then split the NCP then Bihar they won back nitish Kumar and the jdu back to their fold they have struck alliances in TDP in uh in Andra if you take a look at the what is left of the India Alliance and uh you know the fact that the Congress after you know Rahul gandi has done two Barat jodo yatras has that strengthened the Congress because Congress is vital to to defeat the BJP since it has direct contest and say around 200 seats with the BJP do you think the Congress today has a better chance of hitting the BJP or is it like back in 2019 2014 they're highly weak and they will not be able to tackle the BJP this time so Raj good question you asked whether thisat joro Andra of Rahul Gandhi which that hold good or is you know for the prospect of Congress see I'll tell you since Independence Congress has ruled roughly 60 years out of 75 years since then nobody has try and connect with the people at the top leadership and across the uh country bits and pieces they have been the cases but across the country nobody has tried to connect with the people of India right and why there has to be a connect see if when you have to seek the war you try and make the connect with various means and ways but that is when you are in need of those BS what about their needs the people's needs who will try and understand them who will address them until unless you understand that their needs aspirations culture how can you do that how can you rule them because we were coming from the legacy of mugs and Raja Maharaja Raj Raj which continues after Independence right but there has to be some time as in the in this thing process when narend Modi came and he challenged this system he why he could challenge that because he has the 15 years of connect with the help of organization RSS organization as a you know prar then 15 years he has worked in BJP in the back office without holding any post even MLA or MP this is the 30 year of connect understanding of people and their needs and then he met the chief minister and then he proven himself he done something good for the people of Gujarat which he could Showcase in 2014 election so that I try and bring some difference in your life and this is what he have done and literally on various accounts and parameter he could improve lives of the people at large there is not a sing com I'm going to come back to Mr Modi we were on the point of whether Rahul Gandhi will make a difference in this or not now again I'm coming to Rahul Gandhi so I'll tell you to get successful in anything and that to Country diverse and large country like India you need to have at least 15 year for graduation the way the day you start as a standard one to get graduated 12+ 3 so what Rahul Gandhi has done I was coming there only in after 75 years somebody from Congress has gone and try and understand the people what you have been seen in the past one one and a half year the photo of Rahul Gandhi alongside various poor and lower sta people meaning what he's seen in the truck with the drivers he has seen in the Farmland he seen with the fish man he's inen with the kids meaning he's trying and connect with the people but there is a gestation period as I told you 15 years seed after seed there will be the Tam and after T there will be leaves after leaves there will be fruits of flowers after flower there will be fruits and after that you consume the fruits or you you are saying there is no startup industry they go straight to unicorns within 5 years in politics you have to build the unic also Raj if you see that unicor also what you see five years actually they have put forward the affords of at least 10 years for sure I'm more than convinced out of 100 startup only five to 10 get successful and one or two gets the Unicorn level let's be very clear we say startup startup every year 100 start 90 failed but people will argue that Rahul Gandhi has been in power I mean in politics at least now for 20 years so therefore you know he has been he's known to the general public and you know has the Congress did rule the the country for for that many years during that period 2004 to 2014 that is where the difference is that is where precisely that you can be in the politics or anywhere you want to be for 50 year or even 100 years the question is what you bring to the table what what is that value proposition you are bringing to my life when voters elect or select you they evaluate very carefully and Rahul Gandhi has never been in the power or any post where he can showcase his credential at the track record right the other side they have the legacy of Congress rule there are many a good thing but there are many bad things also which is making you difficult you have seen in case of y when 2020 election Assembly Election you could not see the photograph of Lalu Prasad yadov in all the campaign why and he has done phenomenally good and challenge the BJP like anything with a very slender margin he could lost the election why because yes you are sitting on the legacy of Lalu Prasad Yad but there are so many bad things also associated with that which you have to get rid of which will take some time and some time meaning you have to come out with the value proposition at the road map see there are problems there will be problem in last 50 years there are end number of problem and there will be problem in next 50 years also but the question is better place to solve this and that's why I want to come to uh Prime Minister Modi and brand Modi how much of that is the BJP purely riding or NDA purely riding on brand Modi and is that going to be the key factor that will determine the outcome of this general election so if you ask me this question I will give you very straight answer and I'm being very candidate to candidate to this Modi and without Modi is that you asking correct how much is BJP and how much is the equity of Modi yes yes without Modi under the tallest leader of this country or particularly BJP the atel bhari and that is the Mand mement in 1991 mhm under these so-called positive back backdrop BJP could win only 182 seats so if you ask me today I will be with the same point and the same number if there is no Modi BJP cannot win more than 180 seats and with Modi whatever you are seeing 300 plus which is the case I hope I have answered because demy I'll tell you because there is a set of demography which is roughly 15 to 20% BJP could secure 18% of vot share which is you can say Equity of BJP as a party whoever is there in the as a leadership but the moment Modi come he bring along the different set of demography and from this 20% to 37 and then to 45% along with NDA parties this is the value of Modi himself on a individual vote share I would say contribution and and why is that the electorate normally you would expect after 10 years a certain amount of anti-incumbency you do have problems on the economy that we have seen when we did our own mood of the nation poll India today did six you know just 2 months ago every question that we asked on the economy people were giving a thumbs down virtually but yet when it comes to Prime Minister Modi his popularity remains very high they seem to trust him in some sensus to deliver why is this phenomenon happening normally any other leader would have crumbled these are how the UPA crumbled within 10 years in the final lap of their 10 years they just went really down ra since you have asked me this question so I have to answer I have no choice but you or anybody should not qualify me or think that I am a BJP spokesperson because you ask me why Modi has this kind of phenomenal popularity even after 10 years of rule where the anti-incumbency start setting in I'll tell you now when Modi came to the scene 2014 right now when you see the India as a India as a country you need to understand what is this India all about 70% rural 30% Urban and out of this 30% the absolute 10 number which is 33% is poor so this 10% and that 70% total contributes to 80% 80% of this population the fact is their livelihood they lives less than $100 a month income less than $100 a month income I have all study with me I'm not saying just for the sake of their household income is definitely not more than 8,500 rupees even last 20 years even today some may may have improved because of appreciation of rupees now this is one fact now before 14 can you imagine out of this 80 % people large number when I say large number 90% of this 80% used to go for open defecation number one right the cooking used to be done with the help of wood or cow dun the female which is 50% in this total group has to largely depend for livelihood or for whatever economical this thing Resources with men of the day housing though there was IND aasa even during the Indra day but the kind of scale speed had happened after 2014 is phenomenal number one and then Modi made it compulsory at least the housing will be given to the female or even to the in the joint name with the male mhm then the bank account thing Rahul Rajiv Gandhi used to say 15 rupees sent 15 received or delivered now this leakage also DBT is the brainchild of P damam when he was a finance minister saying direct benefit transfer the one that you said direct bank transfer yeah direct bank transfer that is where the 100 cent and 15 delivered if you directly send to the beneficiary account where is the question of leakage and most saying that this in 80% or 90 close to that percentage Mr Modi in the last 10 years has delivered substantially to alleviate their various issues whether poverty and other needs that were there am I right that's why they absolutely I'm saying most importantly the female segment please understand even in male if female receive money in their hand can you imagine the pleasure of a female who is a who is a poor but is still the owner of house can you imagine Even in our well Todo family if a female gets ownership of a house can you imagine the pleasure can you imagine the pleasure of uh cooking in the gas have you ever seen male bringing the wood or the drinking water on their head have you ever seen this so you're saying the women vote will move decisively towards the towards Modi and in this particular election that is tilting the balance very strongly in his favor am I right is that the yes and see the impact across the the you have to see the geographical and demographical impact this is the India all about and this is what Modi has done it by delivering all these social welfare schemes to the doorstep of the people this is the difference between 20 before and after 2040 one of the things that you noticed fair enough they seem to be from your estimate well very well placed but why is there this desperation for the BJP to break various parties whether in Maharashtra that we saw then woo back uh the Jan if the BJP the logic is if the BJP was so well placed do they have to do the kind of things that they doing uh you know virtually they said they were a party with a difference but they are now picking up right across the country where whoever can come to the BJP they're welcoming them and doing that is that a sign of desperation or is that because they want to touch the 370 or 400 Mark whatever they're targeting for and that's why they're doing it what is your own understanding of that is there an undercurrent of dissatisfaction which the BJP notice and therefore it is doing all these things so there is a one word answer to this your question hunger H and not hunger for food but but something else no hunger Hunger because they have been kept away for more than 60 years from the power and once they grab the power they don't want to lose it at any cost so they do not want to leave behind any possibility mhm where they start losing okay right so you're saying that want any possible this thing possibility for opposition to grab even if it in some census Dent brand BJP uh in the sense that it seems like any other party the Congress was accused of it the BJP is doing that and one state I want you to discuss that particular impact is Maharashtra where it does have the second largest number of seats of 48 BJP and shivsena had won it last time together but now uh we've got a you know the BJP split the shipa it has split the NCP do you think the Maharashtra voter will sort of say it's fine this is rajti let the BJP do what it is we will still give the vote what is your sense of the way Maharashtra will blow Maharashtra is the only one state which is totally different in term of we call it in corporate world consumer Behavior the Loyalty factor in Maharashtra I'm talking about people people of Maharashtra is the highest in the country right what what does it mean it means they have a solid loyalty to an individual right Maharashtra is the only state what whatever statement I making the proof of this statement is that in 14 Assembly Election mhm all these four party fought separately and in loksabha election in 14 itself these party for combined with the alliance NCP Congress sua BJP so this was the two occasions then come with the third occasion which is in 19 19 assembly also and loksabha also they fought together right all four times the percentage the vote share is identical of all all four part H and Maharashtra is the only state where you find a small and regional party securing more as many as 28 seats 28 seats is a big number why because there are so many Regional chats and people's following and loyalty goes with them wherever they go right I mean if I start counting from VK pel to hen B takur to there are so many you have never heard of it but right they never lost election for that matter baramati and Sarat P to there are so many I mean chagan bual in nasik I start counting and I can take give you 25 names they will not L why because of that loyalty fact so in Maharashtra you're saying the BJP whatever minations it's done so far it is not assured of getting the kind of numbers that they want in that huge state that is there am I right on their own on their own Maharashtra BJP has never secured uh full majority seats on their own in fact none of the party in last 40 years right and that's the state you would say to watch uh carefully in terms it's not going the the way the although the BJP has laid the ground for to get that break the percentage of votes from that side you could still have a shake over there am I right yes it is absolutely so Maharashtra biar Bengal Tamil Nadu Punjab these are the states to we look forward you know for the outcome of the 2024 elections now that's why I wanted to check quickly on this will arithmetic you know what the bjp's also done is working both on chemistry which is Mr Modi and the arithmetic which is the alliances that they have tried to build up so that they could get the vote percentage numbers what do you think will the arithmetic work because it has never worked if you saw in utar Pradesh when we had that Alliance earlier with you know SP and bsp they might have had the numbers but they never could defeat the BJP in utar Pradesh do you think this is a futile exercise by the BJP to try and build arithmetic or just it's a force multiplier say this is the mix of arithmetic chemistry delivery meaning whoever is the incumbent government whether the BJP or the opposition the delivery of the performance all put together make the result so sometime you see the arithmetic is working well sometime doesn't why because of the delivery matters a lot if there is a good delivery of the performance those two joining together will work good for them or otherwise it won't work for them for example SPN bsp in uttar Pradesh as you are mentioning in 19 election samajwadi party secured five seats on their own in N 2014 Lo saaba and 19 also with Alliance formidable alliance with right basa mayavati they could secure only five SE so it all depend because the other side the delivery and performance is there where the BJP was alone so you are you are saying the BJP is smartly brought in chemistry it is also put in arithmetic certain physics if you want to add to any of the physics that is what is physics yeah and but let us look at it the one of the things that the Congress did successfully in Karnataka my home state where they won through a system of guarantees it seems Mr Modi then has started his Modi guarantee to counter some of what the opposition is doing but take a look at the way the Congress in some sense has gone about making huge promises I think they have a list of 25 that includes giving rupees 1 lakh to women it includes guaranteeing you know MSP for the farmers which is a big issue that's there and a whole lot of other you know goodies that uh the electorate do you think this could have an impact in terms of swaying the voter they might say look fine Mr Modi did a great job and you know in 5 10 years we got but that's his job to do as prime minister he has to bring development to the country now we need to to look for more and as we saw in Karnataka apart from the fact that they had very poor leadership towards the end the game changed completely for the BJP and in Telangana we saw though uh you know kcr had done so much he thought that he had done and when I had interviewed him he seemed so confident the Congress came surging back do you think that the kind of promises that the Congress is making at the moment or the way it is moving does uh you know uh will hurt the bjp's chances yes I mean promis promises do work when there is a nonperformance on the other side the people are looking for a change and the moment they get somebody with these promises and these promises is done by a credible face of the party people go for it which is the case in Karnataka as you are mentioning why Karnataka done the trick and then I'll come to the Telangana as well because in Karnataka if you see the BJP rule there was three not even BJP three chief minister change in the span of five years one of the JS with alliance with Congress about one one and a half year then there was a yura and then there was a was Raj bombai and then over and above there was a Corona and then there was a case in point of Prov one track record of five years of sidar Raya government people could easily see that who is better placed and they right gone for congress party and of course there was a promises course there will always be a promises now coming toana yes yes sorry go ahead so Telangana if you see in whole Southern India the chemistry also you have to see the people Behavior as I mentioning 40 years in whole Southern India only two occasion the government got repeat two term which is 2016 J J Lita and pin viian left party and YSR YSR that time of course Congress only the 2004 and 2009 only twice mhm then he has already got the advantage the kcr of the two time you know 10 years of rule so people were looking for a change and Congress were very well placed in so are you saying that this will not have an impact at the center this particular set of promises that the Congress and this huge sort of uh you know loges or let's say welfare schemes that they are coming out with that's what I say who is promising it because here people have the rule of now 10 years of BJP government and they also know the 10 years comparison of Manan Singh government when Congress was in the you know this thing in the alliance with others so these par is very much there now you can also select yourself Raj who is better place out of these two 20 years you'll get the answer okay let's come to some yeah let's come to some current things that have happened one is the electoral bonds issue which the Supreme Court has asked the SBI now to declare all the names who have donated as well as uh you know the receive these uh uh amounts mainly the political parties that have got it how much tomorrow I mean there are now uh you know opposition parties trying to link quid pro quo so and so gave money here and then got it particularly they're trying to attack the BJP how much damage do you think it could do to the BJP if these findings come out and if there is some sort of uh you know um because BJP has been largely accused if you see our own mood of the nation polls of being favoring big business do you think that will have an impact if the name start coming out and if there is any links to the BJP that begin to show so it is directly again linked with the performance if performance of the government would have been below average these two things would have matter or impacted the LGE section of the society but because if there is something and then there is something called performance if whatever we more people go and move towards that so performance lack of performance then this would have been done like in case of Manmohan Singh government the classic example 2009 right Global slowdown right everybody was in problem across the globe economically even in India but because of that two very thing one was the manrega and second was the right to information people were least bothered about what is happening elsewhere my life got improved so I'm voting for the same party and he seems to be better and gentle person now coming to the 2014 there was nothing to project on the Congress side except that man sing man sing man sing correct economy was doing fairly good but Congress lost badly why because there is a poor performance and those whatever charges allegation of 2G and this and that played the role as well so there has to be a substance then these things play the role all right that's we've got about 3 4 minutes left uh in the show let's just look at a couple of quick questions one is the whole Ram Temple issue and whether the CAA of course the citiz citizenship Amendment act will these have an impact as election issues will this benefit how much will the ram Temple issue benefit the BJP uh for instance let's begin with the ram Temple so I would say in term of vot share because of ram Mand there may be some increase in vot share but not in the may not be in the seat share because whoever is not voted to BJP in 2014 and 2019 I don't think because of ram Mand alone people will go and vote for right I don't think so okay but there will be some increase in vote share because of certain demography they have been voting elsewhere now they will vote in this thing but those demography and geography lies largely in utar Pradesh only okay the second thing is the citizenship gain more votes and more seats because there is a split of Alliance right then the last time the ASP and bsp contesting separately this time God if you take the CAA citizenship Amendment act will it impact not impact it will impact very little in West Bengal particularly and some in Assam okay because there where it matter there where it matter where is a large section of population has come from these three states which they are referring Pakistan Bangladesh and Afghanistan do you see this the hinda factor playing any role because the BJP has moved three cards in that one we've SE the seen the ram Mand we have seen the CAA in full itself we saw article 370 is that a very I mean the you know article 370 being abrogated or abolished and is these three factors one of the things that will strengthen the the BJP the hinda do they need the hinda factor to work for them strongly in this election with Modi being there I would say the see everything contributes in uh you know Victory or defeat that's given always but the question is how much how much it has impacted I would say hardly any impact of all these things if BJP secure whatever number of seats they would have secured these number of seats without all these things uh you know place what you are referring as a hinda and 370 so right now saying the BJP does not need a very strong hinda push Mr Modi himself uh encompasses all this and he is the real winner for I mean real real trump card for them in that sense in fact it is other way around what you're saying the moment you start playing that Hindu Hindu and strong uh aggressive hinda what happen MH it unites the other side the counter polarization the the other community gets so United at any cost they make a point to defeat BJP which was the case in West Bengal Assembly Election right that is the reason why can you imagine out of 294 seats not a single seat and with the population of 30% in West Bengal not a single seat won by Congress and left party why this is the precisely reason why and see the other side TMC could win the historical win winning you know more than 215 States finally one more Factor yeah one more Factor we've talked of the hinda factor and the fact that uh the BJP should avoid a Muslim consolidation because it could have an impact and therefore the emphasis on Mr Modi development and all that actually benefits the BJP am I right that's what you're saying on that front finally the far Farmers you know there you have uh the the farmers we've again seen discontin break do you think this is you know will have an impact on the chances of the BJP but R the problem is that farmers is fine but how many farmers what is the geography only limited to Punjab and some to the harana you see the change of leadership in harana also you know to to to whatever is there to counter all these factors so whatever anywh BJP doesn't have any this thing Foo holding right we we have actually looked at you're saying it'll be a limited impact if there is an impact am I right where there is a problem it will impact no it is as simple as that you tell me there any farmer from utar Pradesh which is the neighboring of this Punjab harana and all that madhya Pradesh Rajasthan you tell me where are the farmers of these states right finally I mean uh you know we have dealt with the women we've dealt with poverty We have dealt with Farmers remember this were the four the fourth uh leg of that the youth and unemployment continues to be high there has been a lot of discontent do you think this could play a role in upsetting the bjp's plans in some senses this would have been played a big role not only unemployment I would say to large extent the inflation also the correct mangi and B Ari is such an issue is always going to be there as you are saying there is unemployment at its peak you are saying that but the question is who is appropriate or suitable to address these issues had there been a credible opposition whom people can trust and they have tried and tested TR record people would have shifted to them to address these problems but the question is where is that credible alternate they are all fighting for their own family and Safeguard their party and their own own existence this is where the problem is the moment you deviate from their objective if I buy this pen even if doesn't write I will throw it in the dust pin you will replace it immediately so this is the problem where is the road map who's giving the road map if we come to the power this is how we will address these inflation and unemployment issues it's not that I always say that there will be problem and issues in after 50 years even there were issues in past 50 years the question is who is suitable and prepared to address these issues there will be always final final question final question in 2004 we saw that Mr vaj was seemed very very confident of winning yet at the end of uh when the results came they did lose that election do you think there is a chance of that happening is there an undercurrent do you think that in some sensus 20 years later in 2024 there could be a surprise coming out and we've all misread the entire undercurrent that's there so Raj you asked me the current the electricity electric component let me tell you this there is a current or there is no current there is nothing called undercurrent often the media projects saying that undercurrent where they are not able to identify the current so they say there maybe the under so it's not the current or there is no current is there a current or not I don't see that there the difference in 2004 and 24 that time it was at bhari bajp this time it is Narendra Modi and that time it was some other BJP Machinery this time this is like formidable uh organization Machinery led by Amit sha so this is the difference I can tell you I you are say position to tell you the outcome of the election but the difference I can tell you with my experience in short you're saying there's no current or there is a current in favor of the BJP at the moment as we stand on this one am I right there is nothing called undercurrent is nothing there is a current right now the current is favoring the BJP whether the outcome happens uh as you are you know the trends show up as as we go along in the next two months will there be a Black Swan event all these are factors but pradep Gupta thank you very much I think you've you know analyzed all these issues with a great deal of insight so thank you for being with me and thank you for watching uh this issue of uh this uh episode of nothing but the truth I look forward to having you with me next week nothing but the truth

Channel: India Today

Views: 137,686

Keywords: india today, india today news, india today live, indian news live, india news live, english news, english news live, top news, bjp, bjp to get 370 seats, 370 seats, bjp will get 370 seats, bjp will cross 370 seats, bjp win 370 seats as claimed by modi, bjp 370 seats, 400 seats bjp, bjp 400 seats, 400 seats, benefit of 370 seats modi, seats, alone will cross 370 seats in lok sabha elections, crossing 400 seats

Id: o2pvjPV5wRo

Length: 53min 35sec (3215 seconds)

Published: Sat Mar 23 2024