India Election 2024: Is Modi Poised For His Biggest Election Win? | Insight | Full Episode

another no hos Bart electoral battle in the offing in about a month India will hold its general election and prime minister Narendra Modi and the BJP appear Unstoppable the BJP will break its own record of 2014 and 2019 and set new record in 2024 High Hopes says the opposition finally the bjp's BL will be called all their spin doctoring all their falsifications all their Fabrications will not come to anything when the world's largest democracy heads to the poles the battle will take place on many fronts from Identity politics to bread and butter issues will Modi lead the BJP to his biggest Victory yet or will the opposition mount a [Music] comeback it's November 2023 and Modi magic has worked again the Indian Prime Minister LED his rightwing BJP party to another historic victory in the state elections the BJP swept three key Hindi Heartland states of Madia Pradesh Rajasthan and chhattisghar the lone victory for the opposition congress party came in the southern state of Telangana where the BJP has never been a major political force this state elections could be a Pon of what's to come in the looming 2024 general election the state elections is largely referred to as the semi-final to the national election and uh the results were pretty one-sided it was prime minister modi's party the BJP which won all the uh states in the north India and the opposition main opposition party Congress had to satisfy with just one state election in South India the defeat in the three states is a big setback for the Congress because Congress was expected to definitely win chattis gar and many people expected Congress certainly to win madha Pradesh yes there were ifs and buts about Rajasthan but Congress losing all the three three state was a big setback for the Congress India's general election is expected to be called between April and May where Modi is likely to seek a third term if the state elections are a barometer then the BJP has all the momentum nonetheless the opposition remains defined I don't think naturally that the state elections have any bearing on uh national elections where the national agenda is actually what is discussed which becomes a part of the narrative and the discourse in this national elections I don't think it'll be local issues but it will be National issues we have our own set of narratives um we are U very very forceful in actually telling the people about that um in earning the trust of the people people so I think that there will be a clash of these kind of ideological narratives in the national election the opposition has been on a back foot since Modi came to power 10 years ago in 2014 the Congress LED United Progressive Alliance or UPA government had been in power for a decade but in the final years of its rule it face charges of massive corruption and inefficiency the BJP led by Narendra Modi took full advantage so that was an issue on which BJP contested on the issue of corruption they charged the government of being corrupt and they were very clever in relating that price rise was also very high at that time they were able to relate the two things convey to the people in very clear terms that prices are high because the ministers are corrupt the government is corrupt people are suffering because the ministers have been able to fill their own pocket since coming to power the BJP has claimed many El victories including retaining power in the 2019 contest is 2024 shaping up to be Mod's biggest win yet the BJP has got wind in its sales claiming it is responsible for India's Stellar economic performance India today in the last 10 years has risen from a rank 11 in a economic power to fifth surpassing United Kingdom India Today is the third largest automobile industry Sur pass in Japan India became the fourth biggest strongest and largest stock market of the world our defense exports are risen by 106% our chemical exports are up by 300% 13.5 CR people or houses rather which is transl to around 135 million didn't have water in their Taps which have been delivered 400 million people fresh bank accounts have opened who didn't have access to banking system there are around 135 million houses which have got toilets for the first time benefiting 350 million women who used to go out in the open Fields today India is hoisting their flag on moon we accomplish the chandrian the voter of India votes on a report card that report card is seen every cyclic 5 years prime minister Narendra modi's vote card is full of green lines full of highflying passing marks the growing economy has helped micro and small scale entrepreneurs like ravit sud he makes Precision equipment for other Industries mainly the automobile sector the biggest reforms have taken place after uh this new regime has taken over in 2014 which are a game changer uh in fact uh if given a choice I would like to start my career now because now the India is a land of opportunities at this moment there is so much opportunity in India to do business that it it is difficult to describe in words we have all kinds of startups and whole set of new ideas sky is the limit and even the brick and morar Factory is no longer required to do you know to do something big as president of the badley Industrial arum outside Delhi which houses around 400 small businesses ravi's sentiments are shared by many the biggest change for better which has taken place is that uh the demonetization has brought businesses on board the people who were doing business without paperwork without billing they that has gone down GST is another big reform and with the GST the paperwork is all gone so if you do your duy file your returns in time there's absolutely no problem earlier you have to go to the excise office or the sales tax office so they would come to your factory and they will do audit so that was a lot of you know it was a real pain in the neck and uh invariably if you have done right you have to bribe them to get a clean chip so there is no hanky panky now the notices are automatic they computer generated despite ravi's optimism it's not all smooth sailing one area of concern is the growing economic inequality as the country progresses at a fast pace the world inequality report 2022 says since the mid 1980s deregulation and liberalization policies have led to one of the most extreme increases in income and wealth inequality observed in the world it describes India as a poor and very unequal country with an affluent Elite in the coming campaign it is one in modi's armor that the opposition will be Keen to exploit you have these huge claims you're out to become the third largest in the world please explain this to a poor person who's going to buy vegetables and can't buy them because the prices are so high please tell him and try and convince him I'm sure he'll jump with joy when he hears that India is the fifth largest economy but he still can't go and buy vegetables I'm sure it'll be a great impact on him according to the same report in India the top 10% and top 1% hold respectively 57% and 22% of total national income the bottom 50% their share is just 13% % listen what is happening here is that there is uh some people are making a lot of money the high frequency numbers which come in in the formal economy suggest that some parts of the economy are doing tremendously well of course they are but the gap between the rich and the poor has increased I think all countries around the world are largely seeing greater amount of inequality that is not something which is an India specific phenomena what policy Alternatives does the opposition have they are ruling a good number of states in India have they presented an alternative economic model before the Indians the answer sadly is no yet with Modi enjoying a 76% approval rating making him the most popular Global leader according to morning consult his party members do not believe the opposition's tactics will work the recent State elections is a stamp by the electorate on the development oriented politics and the rejection of opposition's negative politics politics of corruption and politics advancing crime and as Prime Minister Modi seeks a third term he's doing more than just rest on his economic Laurels he's also campaigning on Hindu nationalism timized by one of India's most important and most controversial holy sites [Music] [Music] ra [Music] all roads lead to AIA tens of thousands gathered in the temple city as the Prime Minister inaugurated the ram Temple the ram Mand this is a sacred site for Hindus believe by some to be the birthplace of Lord [Music] Ram opening of the ram Temple is a turning point in India's trajectory of growth opening of the ram Temple is not restricted to only Faith opening of ram Temple symbolizes unification of society opening of ram Temple symbolizes unification of all the people of all walks of life Ram Temple also symbolizes India's growth story 500 year long weight has come to an end but where the temple stands is the site of Decades of violent clashes between Hindus and Muslims a centuries old mosque known as the babia Masjid had once stood here in 1992 the mosque was pulled down by Hindu zealots known as carats thousands of people died in the communal clashes that ensued finally in 2019 the country's Supreme Court allowed the disputed land to be handed over to the Hindus to build the temple for 58y Amar Singh a school principal in AIA this has been a long awaited day [Music] without amama Singh has lived NAIA all his life bearing witness to the communal violence in the early 90s B m [Music] in the decades when the Holy Idol was kept in the 10 86 year old sandras let the temple writes each day ra but over this momentous celebratory event H A Dark Cloud Mod's tenure has been plagued by accusations of fermenting Hindu nationalism which the BJP denies critics say his term coincided with the marginalization of minorities especially Muslims between 2014 and 2020 the National Crime records Bureau recorded a 500% increase in cases filed under Section 13A of the penal code India's version of hate speech law the bjp's default position is polarization right it it thrives on antagonism between various groups uh between various social groups between religions between words I mean they create created a dichotomous relationship their default position is always a binary position civil izational conflicts you know going back to the past always reaching out to the past to create kind of Discord between people between communities between subjects between Concepts that has been their position throughout the opposition charge that Prime the BJP has uh stirred the communal violence spot of the country Falls flat when see from the lens of Statistics in the country lacks credence from 2014 to 2024 India has not witnessed any incident large incident of communal violence today even if the cach charge of communal violence was true how come Gujarat where there are 17 St seats are dominated by Muslims out of that 14 were won by the bhia Jan party and Congress did not even open an account 40-year-old Muhammad gufran sadiki watched the opening of The Ram Temple he's a Muslim living at yua and runs an NGO called aat people's Forum which encourages dialogue among youths he traces some of the current communal tensions to the temple clashes of 1992 bu and so the inauguration of the ram Temple is hugely symbolic for some it signals a fresh start a way to move passed a dark chapter of India's past for others it is Modi appealing to his Hindu base before the polls the whole strategy of the BJP is to hinge the ram Mand to the elections itself believe if reports are true that it's not even complete you can see scaffolding everywhere I mean ideally a temple should be open when it's complete but they had to time it for the elections so they would like nothing better to deploy this for election purposes it's been taken over by this government it's been taken over by the BJP so it's no longer a religious event let there be no doubt that this is a completely political event right it has nothing at all I think to do with religion and faith and worship and prayer if it was a political event bjp's political event why would the invitations be sent to all opposition members the invitations were not sent by the government of India or the bhar janata party it were sent out by the temple Trust if Ram Temple was a political event why would people shed tears that day on the opening of The Ram Temple why would the Judiciary be there the Bollywood celebrities the Common Man people from sik religion celebrated opening of ram Temple Muslims celebrated the opening of ram Temple the people from Christian Community celebrated from Ram Temple Ram belongs to everyone nonetheless the opening of The Ram Temple has rattled the opposition it has left them playing catchup in appealing to Hindu [Music] voters 2024 elections I'm sure this is going to make a huge impact positive in a positive sense for bjp's vote share if you look at how Ram Temple is making an impact in Indian politics many leaders of opposition parties are sending out message to the Hindu voters they are not they that they are equally religious they are all trying to attend uh religious functions in different states everyone has to send out a message that they are equally religious they are equally Hindu they are more Hindu than the leaders of the BJP so that's one big change Ram Mand has done in Indian politics but identity politics is a double-edged [Music] sword in a September 2023 survey by the center for the study of developing Society only 15% of Muslim respondents will vote for BJP compared to 45% of Hindus doubt but in the end it may be too simplistic to say the election hinges on identity politics in the same survey by the center for the study of developing societies respondents say the major issues facing the country are unemployment and [Music] poverty will prime minister modi's performance on bread and butter issues lead to a BJP sweep or could it prove to be a [Music] liability the gleaming Ram Temple is not the only new site in AIA the city is undergoing an unprecedented metamorphosis station world class ra station religious tourism a brand new Parliament building in Delhi miles of rails roads and runways solar panels blanketing vast Fields infrastructure development is one of the most tangible signs of modi's tenure even in one of India's oldest cities Rejuvenation has come it's Varanasi prime minister modi's own constituency since 2014 when Modi was elected by its residents the city has undergone a sea change the river banks have been cleaned and upgraded and wide corridors have been created to smoothen access to holy sites for pilgrims each day 36-year-old Sonu nishad flies the river in his boat giving tourists a view of the ancient city from the [Music] river [Music] son's income has gone up as more tourists flock to the pilgrim Center Prime Minister Modi kept the focus going that India's reform trajectory has to improve he ensured that some of the pivotal reforms around infrastructure and towards the uh the the second half of his 10year rule he focused on improving India's manufacturing he brought in production linked incentives and he he saw massive uptake so I think this 10 years of Prime Minister Modi he Consolidated uh the comparative advantages that India has uh presented it as a very attractive use case before the rest of the world it's an attractive alternative to [Music] China but not everyone is happy with Mod's reforms to liiz and modernize India's economy India imposes a price flaw on key crops with the government guaranteeing a minimum price to Farmers this is known as the minimum support price in 2020 the Modi Administration proposed agricultural reforms to diversify the supply and demand for crops the farm laws were introduced to allow more Market forces into the sector allowing Farmers the freedom to sell their output to whoever they want but farmer unions were worried this would drive prices down and the backlash was [Music] fierce the farm laws were eventually shelved this February the issue would rear its head again Farmers want more concessions and price guarantees from the government for prime minister modi's economic liberalization also saw the end of diesel subsidies early in his term a move which upset people like shamim nanii whose family produces Exquisite benarasi s is and there are other cracks in modi's economic narrative according to the Center for monitoring Indian economy unemployment hit a 2-year High last October among graduate youths the dress rate reached a reported 42% in January this year 5 million people applied for 60,000 police Constable vacancies in utar Pradesh meanwhile inflation hovers around 5% there is an anise about growing unemployment there is an unease about growing U increasing prices graduate yet despite the headwinds the Modi Administration made a bold move in the latest budget the government did not resort to giving freebies ahead of the elections instead there were Cuts in major subsidies for food Fuel and fertilizers a move that supporters say is financially prudent the opposition however has criticized the government saying it is biased in favor of the rich meanwhile the opposition parties have counted the BJP government with concessions of their own in West Bengal a scheme called alashia band launched by the opposition state government provides financial assistance to lowincome women there are other schemes of various state governments some ruled by opposition parties to help the poor 35-year-old rashma in Delhi makes ends meet by stitching badges on school uniforms and getting free ration supplied by local authorities rma's husband who drove a Rick Shaw died last year leaving her alone to raise her three [Music] children in the end will handouts and freebies work to sway voters pet politics can never be a good thing but my own sense is that there is an overstatement that parties are winning election only by doing out freebies because if that was the case then no ruling party would lose election all ruling parties are in a position to do out as many freebies as they want yes people who benefit from the welfare schemes do tend to vote more in favor of the ruling party but that that's not the sole factor of mobilizing the voters a lot of parties are increasingly getting into a competitive fbe culture that's where the problem is when the elections are going to happen these political parties come up and they promise them promise the voters the moon they don't know where the money is going to come from and typically you see that most of these parties end up bankrupting these State finances and that's really worrisome lot of Indian States at a state level are bankrupt because of this free the political tussle will become more intense as the election draws nearer and for the first time since Modi has come to power the major opposition parties have come together AR raid against the BJP can they stop the political juggernaut [Music] as India gears up for its general election Prime Minister Modi isn't just looking to win he wants to win big after 543 parliamentary seats up for grabs the BJP wants to win 370 seats a big jump from the 303 seats they won in 2019 on the success of the state elections the ruling party fancy their chances it's not if the opposition will lose Big Time opposition is losing big time and that writing on the wall is clear where the opposition itself doesn't have unanimity amongst themselves even how to contest the elections the people of India will vote only to bring prime minister back for on the hot seat for the third time in a row but whether the BJP can achieve such a margin of Victory will depend on Battleground States like the most politically volatile West Bengal it's April 2021 election time in the typical locality on the outskirts of Kolkata but one house on this street is about to be attacked it's the home of San banery BJP leader who contested the West bangal State Assembly elections it's a state where the BJP is the main opposition party s was not at home the night of the attack instead he was at the local police station to large complaints about attacks on other BJP workers sanoy claims the attacks were political intimidation for [Music] West Bengal's 42 seats makes it one of the biggest prizes in the coming polls with both the BJP and the opposition hoping to rest seats from their opponents West Bengal will see some of the most bitter politican and here things could turn bloody I don't rule out some kind of violence erupting in Bengal I don't see that happening in other states in Bengal I think it is a political competition the keenly Keen political competition uh which makes the atmosphere a but we are very very charged and that is why we have seen some violence in Bengal in the past election I really hope that political competition should not result into political violence but uh given the political temperature going up in West Bengal I don't rule out currently West Bengal is an opposition state governed by the trinamul Congress or TMC Bal Legacy since 60s no CP TR in the rest of the country the political contests may not devolve to violence but it could still be fierce major opposition parties have United against the BJP in July last year they formed the Indian national developmental inclusive Alliance commonly known as in [Music] Dia I think the only way to challenge BJP was to form a Alliance uh if they had managed to form an alliance if they managed to put up a one candidate against the bjp's candidate at least in 300 constituency if they are able to do that they can at least contain BJP to some extent when I say contain BJP maybe they could contain BJP to 2 70 to 80 seats if they are able to do that but the alliance has already hit major roadblocks is conva and biha chief minister nitish Kuma has joined the BJP Alliance should the pro BJP mood in the country spread more political parties could leave the opposition grouping in the coming days the congress party nonetheless thinks numbers are in their favor let's look at it statistically in the last general elections the uh BJP got about 36 37% of the votes that means 64 63 64% of the votes came to the opposition or who were contesting against it the simple conclusion of that is that there are more people who are against this particular government and against led by the Prime Minister then who are for it right I think that we are on a very very strong footing the other thing is that simply because of the way the economy has shaped up I think that because there is so much of high levels of unemployment because this government has been unable to provide jobs I think there's going to be a huge backlash about the claims of this government yet in one area Prime Minister Modi has the clear Edge over the opposition geopolitics Modi has raised the international profile of India during his tenure putting the country on the same footing as other great Powers so there are a knes about unemployment and price rise there are several indications for that but why BJP still manages to win elections after election because uh Narendra Modi is seen as a prime minister Who Has Lifted India's image in the world he's he's seen as a strong leader and many people believe that India is at a stage where you need a very strong person to lead the country country so I believe that lot of global problems which require Global Leadership to take decisive decisions around Prime Minister Modi will come in and fill those gaps so he will no longer remain just the leader of India he will he will certainly go out and and fill in the shoes of being a global leader so I see him in that role I don't think he's going to win I think it'll be disastrous for this country if he does if India is doing very well on the global stage as claims are being made then every person who's unemployed in this country and he's poor should be told by this government look forget about your worries put a smile on your face India is doing so well look at us look at us stature in the global uh world look at how people Embrace us embrace our prime minister what are you crying about whether Prime Minister Modi meets his 370 seat Target the premier is already preparing for a third term he set out his vision for the next 5 years at the recent BJP convention [Music] what would another Modi term look like my own sense is that third term is going to be more firm Modi would be more firm my own sense is that BJP with a much bigger majority Prime Minister Modi is going to emerge much stronger the government will be able to take decisions which maybe people may not have thought of he would not be too worried about you know where is his political Capital being spent and how does he do a balancing act I think he would be uh much more confident and he would ensure that all the continuity that he has provided for the past decade that narrative goes on and he's able to deliver on big economic agenda items that he holds very dearly um some of that is centers around the fact that India becomes a manufacturing hub for the world the elections are likely to be called in the coming weeks this will kick off a monthong period of campaigning and voting in the world's largest democracy almost 1 billion people were head to The Ballot Box on one side is the ascendant BJP on the other the combined might of the opposition finally the bjp's bluff will be called and all their spin doctoring all their falsifications all all their Fabrications will not come to anything and their divisive agenda on which they always base every single election on uh will sort of fail because there is deep distress there is deep unhappiness I think in the core of India and I think people will recognize that and they will vote accordingly indiai sociely the Prime Minister he will win to ensure India stays on this path of becoming the global power which it is the BJP will break its own record of 2014 and 2019 and set new record in 2024 which will be hard to break for many for many political and many years to come [Music]

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Id: 56SIv64J4YQ

Length: 46min 59sec (2819 seconds)

Published: Tue Mar 05 2024