Brexit from an Irish perspective - Dáithí O’Ceallaigh

I'm going to talk as if breaks it is a certainty now I hope to god it doesn't become a certainty but I think we have to operate on the basis that it is a certainty and I want to talk about the effects of a brake suit on the Republic the effect of brake search on Northern Ireland and also on the relationship between London and Dublin I very much like to take questions and engage afterwards so I won't talk for too long because I do want to have a dialogue I'd say two things at the beginning firstly the country in which I now live is completely different to the country in which I was brought up it has changed fundamentally for the better and the main reason for us is our membership of the European Union and that is accepted by the vast majority of people in the Republic of Ireland there are people in Ireland you'll see them quoted in The Telegraph and soon including one of my former colleagues who think that we should go for an iron exit whatever that is and join with the British and leave the European Union but I can tell you it's very much a minority sport there's absolutely no doubt about the commitment of the Irish government and the completion Irish political class to staying within Europe so whether there is breakfast or no breaks it take it for granted we're staying in because it has made such a huge difference to our country it has given us a sense of place in the world where we can fight for our interests and quite frankly some Irishmen and some of you here northern well have made a contribution to Europe and to the world that they could never have made had Ireland not been a member of the european union so for us it's terribly important it's also for us quite frankly without any question of Josh a disaster I go through just some of the effects that it might have in the Republic and this is on the presumption by the way that it's going to happen I hope it doesn't happen I think the only answer to the problems that it will cause is that the United Kingdom remains in the European Union I personally am not particularly persuaded that it can be changed but you never know let's hope it is changed different people tell you different things but the general belief is that the reduction in the Irish GDP should the UK leave an Ireland remain is likely to be up to about 8% reduction in GDP because the two countries have been in the European Union there have been very major changes in the trading patterns between Britain and Ireland when we join the EC roughly 70% of our exports came to the United Kingdom now 16% of our export come to the United Kingdom but that 16% is bigger in volume and bigger in value than the 70% 40 years ago so there hasn't been any diminution in the amount of exports and imports between Britain and Ireland since we both joined the European Union quite a country but Britain is not as important for us now in overall terms as it was but it's very important for the smaller businesses the big American companies or the big Japanese companies or the big European companies who are operating out of Ireland particularly in the digital area and in the pharmaceutical area it's not going to bother them very much it's the smaller companies like for example internet and I were at dinner last Saturday night and one of the people one of antonette former pupils who's on our Food Safety Authority we've one of the highest incidence of has been a bifida in children in the world apparently it's I don't know if it's a disease here in Wales but it's certainly much more common in Ireland than in most of the countries in the world if you don't have access readily access to abortion and so on the only way to try to reduce the numbers is to put folic acid into bread it's the easiest way it's done it's done that way in Canada it can't be done in Ireland why because all of the flour that's used for baking bread in Ireland is actually milled in the United Kingdom it gives you an indication of how this supply chain between the two countries has developed within the European Union we export 90 percent of our beef production more than 50 percent of that beef exports comes to this island and it's of a kind of beef that cannot be exported elsewhere in Europe because on these in these islands we produce a different type of beef cow for example - the one that's produced in France and the cuts are all different one third of the pork meat produced in the Republic is processed in Northern Ireland and one third of the milk produced in Northern Ireland is processed in the Republic it makes a little drink called Bailey's most most so they take the chains the between the two islands are extraordinary there are huge numbers of our suppliers into the building trade for example in the UK and then there's a great deal of just common things like buttons and screws and all that sort of stuff which we don't produce at all but which we purchase from the UK so I think the first thing I want to say to you is that they would if and I'm working on the presumption that there's going to be a break sitter that we're gonna stay in the effect on trade will will be enormous and don't underestimate the importance of the Republic of Ireland for British trade we are your fifth biggest trading partner and we are the first trading partner with whom you make a profit you're losing in trade terms which are for top trading partners and with your fifth the Republic of Ireland the balance is in the favor of the United Kingdom you export more to the Republic of Ireland than to China India and Brazil multiplied by two Ireland the Republic of Ireland is a major market for example for British foodstuffs the big multiples marks and sparks Tesco and the German multiples Aldi and Lidl which between them have probably about 50% of the Irish market their distribution centres are all in the UK for the island of Ireland north and south and it's seamless all of that is all going to be affected if there's a braixen agriculture if you go into Marx and sparks in Galway and buy a sandwich the sandwich was made in the UK probably by the way with quite a lot of Irish products in it if the regulations governing food not only the question of from where they're imported but the controls the health circumstances the environment environmental circumstances and so on if they are changed the agricultural and food chain will break between the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe with enormous problems for trade between Britain and Ireland and between Northern Ireland and the Republic the island of Ireland is a single energy market the electricity market in the north is actually owned by the Irish State Electricity Board ESB it's a single market and the only electricity grids that we have are with the United Kingdom with Scotland and with Wales again if it breaks the implications in that whole market are very significant what's also very significant by the way but this is an aside is the talk by both the Conservatives and the Labour Party in this country to realize energy or to control energy prices I know that the Irish were thinking of very big investments generating investments here in Britain and they've dropped them as a result of the banking system is similar we operate practically under the same rules Dublin in many ways is a branch of the city many of the big international banking and financial houses and not only British by the way but also American and otherwise they have branches in Dublin which in many ways are feeding into London now there's a small amount of the business that's leaving the city that's going to Ireland but the bulk of it is going to Frankfurt and to Paris the retail sector I've sorta mentioned the retail sector will be will be smashed in Ireland if there's a break sir because there is a seamless chain supply chain in and out of the two islands the rights of our citizens in Britain the rights of British citizens in Ireland this common travel area effectively means that if an Irish person comes to Britain they are treated from the moment they arrived as if they were a British citizen with rights to health services rights to residential services all of that and vice versa and there's about the same percentage of British citizens in Ireland as there are of Irish citizens in Britain who have exactly the same treatment in Ireland as Irish citizens with one exception as I think I told Karen Howard over lunch there's one thing British citizens do not have in Ireland they do not have the right to vote for our president and I used to be questioned about this at London I used to say but we don't have any right to vote for your Queen the legal systems are the legal systems are similar we've a comment we have a common law system and there are very large numbers of legal people and legal firms with branches in London and in Ireland who operate who are the barristers the barristers at the English bar or the barristers at the Irish bar and are practically interchangeable that will all be affected aviation what happens if your out of the common aviation space were you involved in the common aviation space no I think Peter was wasn't it what happens I mean the biggest market for one of our biggest companies Ryanair is the UK and the chief of Ryanair who's not necessarily the nicest man in the world he's quite fearful that if there's a fabric suit that the access of British based aircraft in and out of Europe and throughout Europe that they will lose those those landing rights what happens to things like data protection for very good reasons Ireland is not in Schengen I've always thought Ireland should be in Schengen but the reason why we're not in Schengen has to do with the common travel area and has to do with terrorism because the data system used the Irish entry ports is actually the British data system it's a common data system so if I go to Dublin and my passport gets pushed into a passport reader that reader is a common British Irish reader will this be effective for years for example we couldn't extradite people we knew to be murdering terrorists we couldn't extradite them to the UK now it's routine there's about 90 prisoners a year regularly extradited from Ireland to Britain and about the same number from Britain to Ireland under the european arrest warrant teresa may almost let that arrest warrant go four or five years ago until she was persuaded largely by the irish government that it would be a disaster to let it go so there's an awful lot that will adversely affect my country if there is a breaks it and I feel terribly sorry that nobody gave a damn in the British political system once they were arguing for breakfast about the implications for a relationship with Ireland which is very important for this country and which is so much better than it was in the past if you read Oliver's book he was in number 10 and he kept a diary for the whole period of the campaign from the beginning of January until the referendum and he wrote a book from number 10 and he was the leader in number 10 of this campaign there isn't a mention in his book not only of the Republic of Ireland but of Northern merit it's horrific it's an it's an introspection on the part of the English and maybe of others and that's from somebody I'm a Dublin perspective it's just astonishing now let me just talk a little bit about Northern Ireland because as Corinne said I have actually spent most of my life on the relationship with the north and on the relationship with London and quite frankly I am exceedingly worried the economic stuff will fix if the GDP goes to on 8% the GDP goes down 8% but that's not the end of the world but Northern Ireland and the relationship with London is something different the fundamental differences in Northern Ireland the sectarianism the dislike of one group for the other is as deep as ever it was and perhaps worse now I'm not for a moment saying that the Provisional IRA are going back to war they're not but there are people within the Republican community the dissidents and those people are just waiting for an opportunity to start it all up again and there are people within the loyalist communities who are of the same mind I've always taken the view I told Tony Blair and I told Gordon Brown I've always taken the view that peace in Northern Ireland is going to take three generations and it's going to take three generations where the two governments together put their bloody feet to the fire to make sure that they get on together you've seen what's happened over the last 13 14 15 months if two leaders in Northern Ireland Arlene Foster in the DUP and Michelle O'Neill inch in vain neither of whom came through the 20 years of discussions of listening to the other side and they both got themselves into the position where the only people they are concerned about are the people on their own side Arlene Foster is only talking to the DUP and she's very weak politically in the party the the power in the party has switched to the DUP members of Westminster who are all of them break Sudhir's and inch in vain it switched to Michelle O'Neil who was a baby when the peace process was being worked on and brought about it to my mind the dangers for Northern Ireland are immense firstly let me just talk a little bit about the situation there the vote in Northern Ireland was to remain I think it was 56% the turnout in Republican areas was very poor why because shin fen had been anti-eu until about three years ago and I suddenly realized as this breaks the debate got underway that Shin feign which by the way means we ourselves are ourselves alone there wasn't quite what they thought it might have been and so they began to move they began to shift about four years ago and I like the old Communist Party of the Soviet Union or the Roman Catholic hierarchy in the Vatican they move very slowly and they all move together but they did move and you could see it coming and it came in the last European elections and by the time they got to by the time they got to the brexit referendum they had changed but they had been talking to their followers in such a way for such a long time that they brought very few of their followers with them and so the must have been a very large proportion of unionists who actually voted to remain but there isn't one of those unionists now prepared to say anything in public because they're including unionists I know who were on the remain side they've now moved over to the brexit side and breaks it has become a sectarian issue in Northern Ireland the the palpable sense in Northern Ireland that I hear from my friends both unionists and nationalists it is as bad as anything that existed in the 70s now it doesn't have the violence but they have both of them retreated they're ghettos and the middle person is scared to lift their head and as I say I think that's very weak political leadership with Arlene Foster who's a decent person and with Michele O'Neal and I'm not too sure that we're going to get it resolved I need to anyway soon the two governments are going to make another go but I'm not too sure they'll succeed and I'm particularly optimistic the second thing I want to say about Northern Ireland is that the peace process was significantly underpinned by the European Union there were very large sums of money put into Northern Ireland to try and heal the areas that were most disrupted with various peace programs a little bit like a Marshall aid one of the people who was responsible for that and this is one of the reasons why Ireland is so important was Michel Barnier when he was commissioner that's about ten twelve years ago he was very heavily involved in it and the peace process in Northern Ireland was seen in Brussels as a victory for the European Union and frankly it would never have happened but for the fact that the United Kingdom and Ireland were both members of the European Union because it was vividly in the European Union that we learned to work together and that we learned to realize that the other was not evil don't forget that at the time of Bloody Sunday when 13 and they were innocent innocent people were shot dead by the Paris in Derry the British prime minister would not take a telephone call from the Irish Prime Minister and the biggest threat since my stage was established was the trip from Provisional IRA make no doubt about it and still the British prime minister would not take a call from the Irish Prime Minister now I do have to say that they change very and that the British government's one after the other labour and Tory realized that the only way towards the future was for Dublin and London to work together but that worked together took place within the EEC within the Union and when problems arose and I've been involved in many of them you look a little problem here a little problem there Gareth Fitzgerald would say to Margaret Thatcher in the margin process the estate market listen I've got a problem can you fix it and that's the way business was done and if you have been in politics knows that's the way the world works but if the UK goes out and that those who regular everyday meetings don't take place anymore then I really fear for the future of the relationship between London and Dublin and the reason why I fear I've already said it to you we didn't figure at all in the minds of those who drove this referendum in England we didn't matter we didn't count and it's a I'm fearful of the future for that relationship the deal in Northern Ireland is simple the two governments and I think by the way that the British government whatever that little slight difficulty they're in with at the moment with the DUP I think the British government will stick to these principles just as much as the Irish government will we have taken the view now for 20 years that the constitutional future of Northern Ireland is a matter for the people of Northern Ireland that if they decide they want to remain in the United Kingdom that's their business if they decide they want to join the Republic of Ireland that's their business but in the meantime in return for for accepting and supporting the continuation of Northern Ireland within the United Kingdom the other side of the equation is equality for the minority and were stuck on this bloody nonsense of the urge language it's the Irish language is not really the issue the issue is equality the reason why the shanaar did so well is very simple Arlene Foster said publicly you don't feed the crocodiles well if you say that the crocodiles what do you expect the crocodiles to do and every time that a sinner or indeed the SDLP and I feel very sad for the SDLP that lost all their seats in Westminster and that were working hard and Westminster they got it on the on the step were not crocodiles and we're gonna show we're not crocodiles and that's why shouldn't think at all those seats and now they're pole to be treated and I'm afraid there are still within the unionist community there are still within the DUP and particularly those in Westminster they are not prepared and not willing to admit that Catholics were not treated equally in Northern Ireland now the British government I mean the essence of the anglo-irish agreement at resigning tovarisch agreement and which I was heavily involved in 85 the essence of that was yes unionists there in a majority and they've an absolute right right to stay in the United Kingdom but she accepted that they did not have an absolute right to deny equality to the minority and I think we're not saying it's as bad as in the old days I think we're back in that frame of mind I think the DUP in Westminster not by the way that a European in in Northern Ireland the DUP in Westminster have the focus has gone to Westminster we can get more out of the British government because they're in a supply is you know arrangement with them we can get more out of the British government if we keep the assembly and the institutions out so who the hell speaks for Northern Ireland in Brussels who speaks for Northern Ireland when you have the meetings in London of the various devolved assembly there's nobody to speak for them because the Northern Ireland government is across party government but doesn't exist and this is one of the reasons by the way why the Irish government has been so tough because the British government are not going to speak for Northern Ireland they'd love to be rid of it to be quite frank the only people who are speaking for us are the Irish and as a result sometimes the relationship between the Irish government and the British government over recent months has it's become very touchy I don't know how this is going to be resolved if you bear with me I read two paragraphs from the agreement that mrs. Mae signed in December just to remind you of what it is the United Kingdom remains committed to protecting north-south cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements the United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU UK relationship should this not be possible the United Kingdom would propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland in the absence of agreed solutions the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union which now or in the future support north-south cooperation the All Ireland economy and the protection of the 1998 agreement now the Commission and the British government and the Irish government had worked on this and there are 142 areas supported by EU money and assistance cross-border which need to be protected under that paragraph when the DUP saw that paragraph Arlene Foster was quite happy with it but if you remember she had to call mrs. May and say she couldn't agree but that was largely as a result of the Westminster people so a second paragraph has been added this is the second paragraph in the absence of agreed solutions as set out in the previous paragraph the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers developed between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom so the first one that Ben will hold on to the regulation between north and south and in the second one there'll be no difference between the north and the rest of the UK unless consistent with the 1998 agreement the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland stop in all circumstances the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market now personally I don't know how you can square that at all if the United Kingdom pulls out of the customs union if the United Kingdom pulls out of the single market if the United Kingdom just forgets about the European Court of Justice and most importantly if there are controls on immigration how can you avoid customs posts if we're part of the Republic of Ireland as part of the EU the border whether that border is between north and south or whether that border is down the middle of the Irish Sea it will be a e.u border and it'll be just the same but it won't be the same but think of the EU border between Dover and Calais if it comes back so the implications from my state and the implications for my island of what's happening quite frankly are horrendous I see no good in it I am exceedingly worried particularly about Northern Ireland as Hugh Ord who was the first Chief Constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland is a very fine policeman he said if there's a customs post on the border it will be blown up if there's a customs officer on the border he'd be shot if there's a policeman on the border to protect them he'll be shot and the next in is the army now I'm not saying it's going back to that because I think the vast majority of people in Northern Ireland on both sides never want to go back there again they all realize how hard it was but there are people within the dissonance who would love to have the excuse to have another go and quite frankly I fear and I think this genie has been let out of the bottle of English nationalism is really terribly dangerous I'll stop there and you can ask me whatever you like [Applause]

Channel: Cardiff University

Views: 256,196

Keywords: Cardiff, Wales, Cardiff University, Ireland, Brexit

Id: dmjTPr8j5p4

Length: 31min 57sec (1917 seconds)

Published: Wed Feb 28 2018

Reddit Comments

[u/[deleted]]

I thought it was going to be a comedian, not a former ambassador.