MANUS:
GOOD MORNING FROM OUR GLOBAL HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK.
LET'S SET YOUR AGENDA. THE COUNTDOWN BEGINS FOR THE
U.S. JOBS REPORT. A MEGADEAL IN THE WORK SPRAYED
ARAMCO SAID TO BE STOCK OFFERING RAISING AT LEAST 1
BILLION MIDYEAR THE BIGGEST DEAL IN THREE YEARS.
NEVER-ENDING BOOM TIME. TSMC'S MONTHLY SALES RISE AS
INDUSTRIES RACE TO SECURE AI CHIPS.
A VERY GOOD MORNING PRAYED ANY SET OF NERVOUS EXHAUSTION AND
THE EQUITY MARKETS AS WELL HIDDEN. $4.6 BILLION FLOWED INTO
EQUITIES THE SEVENTH WEEK OF MONEY FLOWING INTO EQUITIES AND
YOU'VE NOW GOT MICROSOFT, NVIDIA AND APPLE WORTH MORE
THAN THE ENTIRE CHINESE STOCK MARKET.
THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE IS ONE OF A GRIND HIGHER.
THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE IS HIGHER.
YOU'VE GAMESTOP AT THE BOTTOM OF YOUR SCREEN UP 34%. KEITH GILL WILL TAKE TO YOUTUBE
LATER ON THIS EVENING. IT'S A MUST VIEW, OF THESE MEME
STOCKS WE CANNOT IGNORE THEM. IGNORE THEM AT YOUR PERIL WAS
AMY'S NOTIFICATION FROM RBC EARLIER. SAYING THE MAY SALES ROSE BY
30% AGAIN, INVIGORATING THE OVERALL CHIP NARRATIVE, THE
INSATIABLE DEMAND FOR CHIPS. THE BOND BOWLS HAVE BEEN FIRMLY
IN CHARGE. WE NEED A FAIRLY SOFT NUMBER IN
THE JOBS REPORT TO SPIRIT THE YIELD LOWER AGAIN.
WHISPER NUMBER IN THE BOND MARKET 165. IT'S GOOD TO BE A VALIDATION OF
THE MOVE LOWER IN THE BOND MARKET IN YIELDS IF WE GET A
SOFTER NUMBER. AND TO EUROPE, OF THE SHORTS
HAVE TRIMMED THEIR POSITION. THE ECB JACKED UP THEIR
INFLATION ESTIMATES THE IRISH CENTRAL BANKER SAYING I DON'T
KNOW HOW FAST THE ECB WILL CARRY ON IF AT ALL IN TERMS OF
THE CUT. THERE IS ONLY ONE EVENT OF THE
DAY, COUNTING DOWN TO THAT PAYROLLS REPORT. >> IT LOOKS LIKE THE LABOR
MARKET IS COOLING A BIT. BUT IT'S MOVING INTO BALANCE. >> UNTIL WE SEE OUTRIGHT
LAYOFFS PICK UP IN EARNEST, UNTIL WE SEE THAT THE MARKET
HAS ROOM TO RUN. >> WE MAY SEE A BOUNCE BACK
FROM WEAKER APRIL. BUT THE LABOR MARKET IS SLOWING.
>> I THINK THE BAR FOR BAD LABOR MARKET DATA IS PRETTY LOW.
WE ARE TO SEE 140 THOUSAND PAYROLLS WHICH IS A FURTHER
SLOWING. >> IF WE GET THAT CLOSE TO 160
THAT COULD BE WHAT WE NEED. >> I DON'T THINK THE FED IS
GOOD TO HAVE IT FIGURED OUT IN THE NEXT WEEK. MANUS: SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT
ANTIDOTE AND HE WRITES THIS, INFLATION STRENGTH IS WAY TOO
SLIPPERY. THE ONLY VIABLE PATH TO CUT
CITY IS VIA THE JOBS ROAD. CRUCIAL PRINT TODAY AND THAT IS
AHEAD OF THE FED. GOOD MORNING, GOOD TO SEE YOU. IT'S GOING TO TAKE A HECK SOFT
NUMBER TWO REALLY DELIVER THE MOMENTUM, A MORE DOWNSIDE IN
TERMS OF THIS YIELD. SO SUDDENLY THE DUAL MANDATE
WILL BE THE REASON, THE EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS WILL BE THE
REASON THAT WE SEE THE REAL POSSIBILITY OF A CUT THIS YEAR. >> ABSOLUTELY PRAYED OUR RATES
ARE CONTEXTUALIZED. JUST TO GET A SENSE OF HOW
CRUCIAL THIS JOBS REPORT IS TODAY.
WE HAVE SEEN A SLEW OF DATA THIS WEEK FROM THE PMI, ISM'S,
ADP, EVERYTHING AND CENTRAL BANKS FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF
THE POND STARTED TO CUT RATES. BUT THE MAIN EVENT IS STILL THE
JOBS REPORT TODAY. AND THE REASON, THERE'S JUST
NOT ENOUGH RUNWAY FOR THE FED HERE FROM AN INFLATION
PERSPECTIVE TO GET THE TARGET BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR FOR
THESE TO MATERIALIZE. MANUS:
DO YOU REALLY SEE THAT? THEY NEED A HECK OF A SERIES OF
GOOD NUMBERS AND THE JOBS NUMBERS WE'VE RUN SOME OF THOSE.
WE NEED TO SEE JOBS, UNEMPLOYMENT ON A THREE-MONTH
AVERAGE BEFORE YOU CALL THE TECHNICALITIES OF A RECESSION
PRAYED THAT'S A PRETTY HIGH BAR. FRANK: THE MARKETS ARE LOOKING
ESPECIALLY FOR A GOLDILOCKS NUMBER AROUND 50 K, A 10%.
I THINK THE THRESHOLD FOR THAT TO START PANICKING VERY RAPIDLY
IS THE 100 K MARK VADON TO YOUR POINT ABOUT HAVING TO SEE A
SERIES BEFORE CUTTING I TOTALLY AGREE WITH THAT.
THEY HAVE BEEN PRETTY ADAMANT THEY WANT TO SEE A SERIES OF
DATA, WE HAVE FREE PRINTS -- THREE PRINTS EARLY IN THE YEAR
THAT AFFECTED PANIC AND STARTED RAISING RATES.
SAME THING WITH THE JOBS MARKET. MATHEMATICALLY SPEAKING, YOU
NEED AT LEAST THREE DATA POINTS TO HAVE THIS.
IF I SAY TO YOU 1, 2, COMPLETE THE SERIES.
MOST PEOPLE WOULD SAY THREE, BUT YOU COULD SAY
ONE TO FOUR. MANUS: WE RALLIED, WE GOT 20 BASIS
POINTS. IT'S NOT WHAT YOU WOULD CALL A
FURIOUS RALLY BUT IT HAD MOMENTUM. YOU SAY CYCLICAL POSITIVE INTO
A SOFTENING ECONOMY. MY QUESTION TO YOU IS WHAT IS
IT THAT BREAKS TO THE DOWNSIDE. WHAT DO YOU NEED TO SEE IN DATA
TO HELP THE BOND MARKET BREAK LOWER. FRANK: IT'S GOOD HAVE TO BE A MAJOR
BREAKDOWN IN LABOR MARKET DATA. THAT'S GOOD TO BE AROUND
100,000. MANUS: ECB JACKED UP THEIR ESTIMATIONS
FOR THIS YEAR AND NEXT YEAR. AND THE END OF THE
LAST SHOW WE HEARD FROM CHRISTINE LAGARDE WHEN SHE
TALKED ABOUT STICKY INFLATION AND A BUMPY ROAD.
YOU'VE A TACTICAL ALLOCATION TO COMMODITIES BECAUSE OF THIS
INFLATION. WHERE EXACTLY? FRANK: I THINK THE CURRENT MACRO
BACKDROP STILL IS FAVORABLE TO AN ALLOCATION FOR COMMODITIES,
INVESTORS NEED TO MAKE SURE THEY REMAIN MORE NIMBLE HERE
AND WATCH OUT FOR DIFFERENT IDIOSYNCRASIES FROM COMMODITIES.
I THINK IT'S MORE OF A STORY OF BEING TACTICAL AND AGILE AROUND
SOME RELATIVE VALUE PLAYS. THE COMMODITIES COMPLEX.
ENERGY TO METALS, RELATIVE VALUE THAT IS.
WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY FOR INSTANCE A LOT OF FUND MANAGERS
PLAYING COPPER AGAINST OIL. THESE ARE THE TYPES OF PLAYS
INVESTORS WILL HAVE TO KIND OF THE AGILE ON INSTEAD OF JUST
HAVING ALLOCATIONS OF COMMODITIES WHERE WE ARE CYCLE
TODAY. I THINK IT'S MORE AROUND
FINDING IF YOU HAVE A STOCK PICK HERE THEN BUYING THOSE SO
TO SPEAK SO YOU WANT TO BE TACTICAL AROUND COPPER AND
GOLD, OIL AND BE RESPECTFUL OF TECHNICALS.
WE SEEN WHAT HAPPENED WITH CRUDE OIL RECENTLY WHERE THE
MARKET BASICALLY GOT DERATED BECAUSE OF A SEQUENCE OF
BEARISH CUTS AND I THINK WE ARE TODAY WITH THE MARKET THAT'S
ALMOST MAXED SHORT VERSUS COPPER WHICH OVER TO THE LONG
SIDES OF THESE ARE TECHNICALS INVESTORS NEED TO BE WATCHING
AS THEY ALLOCATE. >> WHEN YOU SEE THAT
OVERSTRETCH ON THE BEAR SIDE AND THE FULL SIDE, YOU SORT OF
DIG A BIT DEEPER AND PIVOT. FRANK: CORRECT. MANUS: I THINK IT WAS A FAIRLY
STRAIGHTFORWARD ANALYSIS, THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE IS TO
GRIND HIGHER. YOU LOOK AT MICROSOFT NVIDIA
AND APPLE. THE THREE STOCKS ARE BIGGER
THAN THE ENTIRE STOCK MARKET. YOU WARN OF COMPLACENCY IN THE
EQUITY MARKET. THERE'S A POSSIBILITY OF A
DRAWDOWN. THERE'S NOTHING STOPPING THE
FREIGHT TRAIN OF THE MAG SEVEN AT THE MOMENT PRAYED BUT TALK
TO ME ABOUT WHAT YOU ARE BASICALLY TALKING THIS
COMPLACENCY. HOW FULLY INVESTED ARE WE IN
WHAT IS IT THAT WORRIES YOU SO IN TERMS OF POSITION? FRANK:
THIS MOMENTUM IS STRONG. THERE'S A RISK OF THIS MOMENTUM
PEEKING IN A LITTLE BIT, POSITIONING IS OVERSTRETCHED.
ASSET MANAGERS ARE MOST FULLY INVESTED.
IT'S IS A 10 YEAR LOW IN TERMS OF CASH ALLOCATION.
I FEEL IT THE ONLY THING SUPPORTING THIS MARKET IS THE
HEFTY AMOUNT OF BUYBACKS PROGRAMS THAT ARE STILL VERY
ACTIVE IN THE MARKETPLACE, SO I THINK THE MARKETS ARE BEING
VERY COMPLACENT. IF YOU LOOK AT THE S&P FOR
INSTANCE, INVESTORS SHOULD BE LOOKING AT EMPLOYEES SUCH AS
BUYING SOME CHEAP DOWNSIDE PROTECTION, AT THE VOLATILITY
SITTING IN A 12 YEAR LOW. EVEN IF YOU ARE ALONG THE
MARKET I GUESS PRETTY CHEAP TO ADD TO THE PORTFOLIO. MANUS:
I KNOW YOU WILL SET YOUR CLOCK AND LOGGED IN TO YOUTUBE LATER
ON, THE STRATEGIC TACTICAL INVESTMENT ADVICE BASED ON
KEITH GILL APPEARING ON YOUTUBE. WE SHOULDN'T BE SMILING BECAUSE
AMY WAS WITH ME FROM RBC ON TUESDAY AND SHE SAID DO NOT TO
CRY WHAT'S GOING ON WITH MEME STOCKS,
GAMESTOP, AMC. IT DOES HAVE A MATERIAL IMPACT
FOR INSTITUTIONS. WHAT ARE YOU AND THE REST OF
THE TEAM TALKING ABOUT. THERE IS GAMESTOP UP 70% OVER
TWO DAYS. THESE ARE SMALL STOCK SWINGS
BUT THEY HAVE SOME KIND OF RESIDUAL IMPACT ON PSYCHE?
FRANK: IF YOU LOOK AT A LOT OF PEOPLE
THAT ARE RUNNING RISKS TODAY VERSUS PRE-PANDEMIC, EVERYBODY
HAS TO HAVE A MODEL OF THESE THINGS BECAUSE INVESTMENT
CYCLING BEHAVIORS WITH THE GAME OF THE OCCASION OF INVESTING SO
WE HAVE TO BE RESPECTFUL OF THAT.
IT'S SLOSHING AROUND, THAT'S CAN CONTINUE TO CHASE THOSE
STOCKS. >> DO YOU THINK IT'S JUST
RETAIL PLAYING THOSE STOCKS OR IS THERE SOME HINT OF
INSTITUTION BUYING THAT AS WELL? >> THEY ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO
EXPLOIT THE MARKET. BUT IT'S MAINLY RETAIL DRIVEN.
BUT YOU CAN HAVE A ONE-WAY MARKET.
IT HAS TO BE TWO PLAYERS PRAYED INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ARE
LOOKING FOR WAYS TO CAPITALIZE THAT. >> WE WISH YOU WELL. , FRANK THERE OF ALTAMA, OUR
GUEST SETTING THE AGENDA. STORIES ON YOUR BLOOMBERG THIS
MORNING, CHINA IS SAID TO BE CONDUCTING COMPREHENSIVE SITE
INSPECTIONS OF ITS BIGGEST MUTUAL FUNDS.
THE AUDIT OFFICE SAID THE TEAM OF A DOZEN STAFF EACH TO AT
LEAST 10 OF ITS FIRMS IN THE PAST WEEKS.
THE ORDER SCREEN THROUGH DOCUMENTS FOCUSING ON EXPENSES.
THE BIGGEST BANKS ARE PLANNING TO SELL TOYOTA SHARES ACCORDING
TO PEOPLE WITH KNOWLEDGE OF THE MATTER.
THE BANKS WILL SELL IN STAGES AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF TOYOTA'S
BUYBACK PROGRAM. TO MINIMIZE THE MARKET IMPACT.
THE NBA COMMISSIONER SAYS THE LEAGUE WILL TURN TO EXPANSION
POSSIBLY OVERSEAS AFTER IT COMPLETES A NEW ROUND OF TV
DEALS. LAS VEGAS AND SEATTLE ARE BOTH
LOOKED AT HIS FAVORITES FOR THE NBA FRANCHISES.
MEXICO CITY IS CONSIDERED A CONTENDER.
THE ONLY FOREIGN TEAM PRESENTLY IS THE TORONTO RAPTORS.
COMING UP SAUDI ARAMCO IS ABOUT TO RAKE IN 1 MILLION
FROM ITS SECONDARY ISSUANCE OF ARAMCO STOCK.
LATER THIS HOUR WE DRUM BEAT TO THE PAYROLLS REPORT WITH DANA
PETERSON. CONTEXT MATTERS ON BLOOMBERG. ♪ MANUS: IT'S BLOOMBERG BRIEF. SAUDI ARAMCO SET TO RAISE 1
BILLION FROM ITS SECONDARY STOCK OFFERING.
THAT'S THE BIGGEST DEAL GLOBALLY IN A MOST THREE YEARS. IT'S BEEN A BIG WEEK FOR THIS
SHARE SALE. INTO A FALL IN OIL MARKET WITH
SENTIMENT BEING CHALLENGED ON MULTIPLE FRONTS.
GOOD MORNING TO YOU. THE SCALE OF THIS OFFERING TO
FOREIGN INVESTORS, YOU ARE IN SINGAPORE OUT OF NEW YORK.
AND ALL OVER THE WORLD. HOW TOUGH WAS IT TO BRING THE
SECONDARY OFFERING THIS WEEK AT THIS TIME? >> I THINK FROM WHAT OUR
REPORTERS WERE HEARING THIS HAD MORE OVERSEAS INTEREST THAN THE
INITIAL OFFERING IN 2019. THAT CAN BE FOR A NUMBER OF
REASONS. CLEARLY THE PICTURE FOR OIL IS
NOT TERRIBLY SUNNY. BUT SAUDI ARAMCO IS A PRETTY
ATTRACTIVE COMPANY IF YOU LOOK AT THE MONEY THEY GIVE OUT.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE DIVIDEND IT'S THE LARGEST IN THE WORLD. THEY ARE TO GIVE 25 MILLION
DIVIDEND, THAT'S FIVE TIMES MORE THAN MICROSOFT WHICH WOULD
BE THE SECOND IN THE WORLD SO HE DID GAIN MORE INTEREST
GLOBALLY. THAT'S THE REPORTERS ARE
HEARING SO THERE IS THAT INTRA-SPACE CERTAINLY. >> WE'VE HAD AN ASPIRATIONAL
TABLE WHICH HAS REALLY ACTIVELY COME OUT AND WARNED GIVEN A DAY
OR TWO REALITY WOULD FALL IN. OIL WAS DOWN 3%.
WE ARE STILL TRYING TO UNDERSTAND THIS RELEASE BACK OF
DARRELL'S TO THE MARKET. >> I THINK THIS IS ALL A GAME
OF EXPECTATIONS. WHEN YOU WERE READING THE
ANALYST REPORTS A FEW WEEKS BEFORE THE OPEC-PLUS READING
THERE WAS THIS EXPECTATION THEY WOULD KEEP THESE CURVES IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE YEAR BECAUSE THINGS ARE
SOFTER. THE CHINESE DEMAND HAS BEEN
SOFT. U.S. DRIVING HAS GOTTEN BETTER. SHALE DRILLING IS MORE
RESILIENT THAN I THINK PEOPLE WERE EXPECTING AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR AT THIS PRICE LEVEL. SO OVERALL, THEM COMING OUT TO
SAY THEY WOULDN'T BE ADDING BARRELS TO THE MARKET I THINK
ABOUT 500,000 BARRELS A DAY BY THE END OF THE YEAR AND IN THE
FOURTH QUARTER AND 1.8 MILLION BARRELS A DAY AROUND THIS TIME
LAST YEAR WAS A BIT OF A SURPRISE TO SOME FOLKS AND
WHILE SAUDI ARABIA CERTAINLY IS SAYING -- THEY ARE JUST READING
THE MARKET TEA LEAVES. SEEING PRICES FALL TO THIS
LEVEL ISN'T SOMETHING NECESSARILY THAT THEIR LEADERS
WANT TO SEE ESPECIALLY IF THEY WANT TO BALANCE THEIR BUDGET
AND DOING SO REQUIRES CLOSER TO 00. >> JUST WONDER WHERE THAT IS IN
LOWER PRICES TO INVOKE A SAD PAUSE.
STEPHEN, THANK YOU VERY MUCH. ON ARAMCO IN THE OIL MARKET.
HEADING FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF LOSSES AFTER OPEC SUPPLY
RATTLED THE MARKETS. CHIEF COMMODITY STRATEGIST SAYS
TO FIND BALANCES IN THE OIL MARKET YOU HAVE TO LOOK INTO
SANCTIONS. I CAUGHT UP WITH THEM AT THE
RBC GLOBAL ENERGY CONFERENCE. >> WHERE I THINK YOU WANT TO
LOOK FOR POTENTIAL IN TERMS OF BALANCES TO THE MARKET.
WHAT CHANGES IN TERMS OF WHERE YOU CAN SEE VOLUMES YOU HAVE TO
LOOK AT SANCTIONS AND YOU HAVE TO SAY IS THERE POTENTIALLY A
MOVE. IF YOU LISTEN TO STATEMENTS,
THEY ARE BASICALLY SAYING IRAN CAN DO WHAT IT DID IN TERMS OF
HAVING BASICALLY THE TERRORIST PROXY GROUPS ALL OVER THE PLACE
BECAUSE THEY HAVE THE CASH. BUT THE INTERESTING QUESTION IS
WOULD YOU SEE A PRESIDENT TRUMP COMING IN AND BE LIKE WERE
GOING BACK TO ZERO AND WE WILL AGGRESSIVELY ENFORCE THE
SANCTIONS. BECAUSE YOU CAN TALK TO PEOPLE,
PEOPLE WHO HAD BEEN IN THE PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATION SAYING
GIVE ME SIX MONTHS I CAN GET A YEAR OFF.
WITH JUST THE QUESTION IS WITH RIGOROUS ENFORCEMENT.
WOULD PRESIDENT TRUMP REALLY WANT TO TAKE A MILLION OFF IN
SIX MONTHS. WOULD THEY DO IT WITHOUT A
BACKFILL? AND WHEN YOU PUT THIS TO EVEN
MORE POWERFUL PEOPLE WHO COULD BE INFLUENCING
TRUMP, THEY WOULD SAY YEAH WE WOULD PROBABLY WANT TO BACK
FOOT AND THE QUESTION IS CAN YOU GET -- IF YOU WERE GOING TO
SQUEEZE IRAN. THE BACKFILL WOULD HAVE TO COME
FROM THE GULF COUNTRIES. AND THE QUESTION IS AFTER 2018,
WOULD THEY FRONT RUNNER PRODUCTION INCREASE.
I WOULD SAY THAT'S THE THING THAT I THINK THEY ARE CONCERNED
ABOUT. WE MIGHT DO GESTURES BUT ARE WE
GOOD TO BASICALLY GIVE YOU A MILLION EXTRA WHEN YOU PROMISE
HER TO TAKE A MILLION OFF OR WILL YOU TAKE A MILLION OFF AND
WE HAVE A DEFICIT IN THE MARKET AND THEN MOVE BACK.
I DON'T THINK WE CAN EXPECT AFTER 2018 TO HAVE THOSE
COUNTRIES BE LIKE TAKE IT ON GOOD FAITH THAT YOU ARE GOING
TO DO THIS. LET'S PUT THOSE BARRELS. >> THEY WANT A DEAL IN CONGRESS.
>> THEY WANT TO SEE THEY'RE KNOCKING TO SAY WE WILL ENFORCE
IT. THEY WANT TO SEE THAT WE ARE REAL ABOUT IT. MANUS:
CHIEF COMMODITY STRATEGIST SPEAKING AT RBC.
ENERGY CONFERENCE IN NEW YORK. COMING UP A LOOK AT WHAT'S
MAKING HEADLINES AROUND THE WORLD.
ANYTHING FROM JOBS DAY IN THE USA. WE ARE FLAT ON SOME OF THE
MOVES FROM EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AND CHECKING IN ON THESE
MARKETS AHEAD OF THE JOBS REPORT. MANUS:
WHAT'S MAKING NEWS ON THE FRONT PAGES AROUND THE WORLD.
FIRST UP THE NEW YORK TIMES, THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER WILL
ADDRESS CONGRESS JULY 24. FACING INTENSE CRITICISM
OF THE GAZA WAR CONTINUES.
SOME OF SAID THEY WOULD BOYCOTT THE ADDRESS. REMEMBER THIS STORY, ACQUITTED
OF CRIMINAL CHARGES BY A JURY IN SAN FRANCISCO.
BLOOMBERG LEADS WITH THE CHINA
EXPORT STORY, THAT BEAT THE ESTIMATES THAT IMPORTS MISSED
INDICATING WEAK DOMESTIC DEMAND. SPEAKING ABOUT CHINA JUST CHECK
OUT THE GOLD PRICE. WE UNDERSTAND THEY BOUGHT ZERO
GOLD AND THAT BEEN ON A RAMPAGE, A LOT OF CENTRAL BANK
SAID GOLD DIPS AT 1.48%. AND OIL SLIPS AGAIN AS THE
MARKET DIGESTS FROM OPEC-PLUS. MANUS:
FROM A GLOBAL HEADQUARTERS A VERY GOOD MORNING.
LET'S SET YOUR AGENDA. THE COUNTDOWN BEGINS, OF THE
U.S. JOBS REPORT A DEAL IN THE WORKS.
ARAMCO SECONDARY STOCK OFFERING SUCH A RAISE AT LEAST 1
BILLION MAKING IT THE BIGGEST DEAL IN THREE YEARS.
A NEVER ENDING BOOM TIME. TSMC'S MONTHLY ENTERPRISE 30%.
AS INDUSTRIES RACED TO SECURE THE AI CHIPS FOR THE FUTURE, A
VERY GOOD MORNING TO YOU. IT IS JOBS DAY AND SO REALLY
THERE IS THE FOCUS ON THE BOND MARKET. WHAT HAVE WE GOT. REALLY TODAY IS ABOUT A
VALIDATION OF THE NARRATIVE OF THE SOFTER WAGES AND SERVICES
REPORT. THE MORE HAVE A REPORT OUT WILL
SELLING POP IN YIELD. IT'S RANGE TRADING BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT 166,000 IN JOBS CONSENSUS IS
UP 180. STOCKS IS THERE A SENSE OF
NERVOUS EXHAUSTION NOT FROM THE FLOW.
4.6 BILLION DOLLARS FLEW IN FOR A SEVENTH WEEK IN A ROW AND THE
PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE OVER AT MORGAN STANLEY IS REALLY
SLOW GROUND. GAMESTOP UP.
WE UNDERSTAND SOME OF THE MOTIVATION IN TERMS OF TRADING
THESE MEME STOCKS. NVIDIA AND MICROSOFT OPEN.
ALL THE CUSTOMERS OF TSMC WHICH SAW THEIR SALES RISE BY 30% UP
A HALF OF 1%. STOCK NARRATIVE THERE'S NO
SENSE OF NERVOUS EXHAUSTION THERE. THE SHORTS HAVE TRIMMED AFTER A
HAWKISH CUT ONE COULD SAY FROM CHRISTINE LAGARDE AND HER
COHORT AT THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK. THE IRISH CENTRAL BANKER SAYS
HE DOES NOT KNOW HOW FAST THE ECB WILL CARRY ON IF AT ALL.
REAFFIRMING THE NARRATIVE THIS COULD BE ONE AND DONE FROM THE
ECB OR INDEED JUST A HAWKISH HOLD. EVERYTHING'S VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED. THAT'S THE JOB. LET'S BRING IN MIKE MCKEE.
COUNTDOWN TO THE JOBS REPORT A BIT MORE EXCITING
WITH BATED BREATH. WE WERE JUST HAVING A PRIVATE
CONVERSATION ABOUT THE NUMBER. A HUNDRED 66,000 AND WHAT WOULD
YOU SAY THAT NUMBER RELATIVE TO THE MEDIAN? >> THE MEDIAN HAS COME DOWN.
IT'S THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME THE WHISPER NUMBER HAS
COME AND WAY BELOW WHAT THE ECONOMIST FORECAST. THE MARKETS
BEEN ABOVE THE FORECAST FOR MANY MONTHS NOW AND IT HAS
PROVED OUT. BUT OVERNIGHT WE SAW A DROP IN
THE ECONOMIES FORECAST AS LOWER ESTIMATES CAME IN TO 180,000.
EARLIER IN THE WEEK 190. IN TERMS OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE OR THE AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS.
WE HAVE AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS ON THEIR BECAUSE OF THE ECONOMY IS
SLOWING WE MIGHT SEE A CHANGE IN THERE.
THE WARNING HERE IS YOUR KNOCKING A WANT TO RUN IT
BACK ON THE FIRST HEADLINE THAT COMES OUT BECAUSE MEI HAS A
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROBLEM AND WITH ALL THE TEACHERS WHO GO
HOME AT THAT POINT AND ALL THE KIDS WHO THEN GO TO WORK AT THE
SWIMMING POOLS AND THINGS LIKE THAT, MATCHING THOSE THINGS UP
THERE IS TROUBLE SO THE MAY NUMBERS TEND TO COME IN A LOT
LOWER. THE POSSIBILITY OF A DOWNSIDE
SURPRISE FROM TECHNICAL REASONS IS ALSO THERE.
SO WE COULD SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
OR WE COULD SEE ONE DEPENDING ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THIS
THAT SUGGEST THE ECONOMY IS SLOWING SIGNIFICANTLY.
ECONOMY IS SLOWING SIGNIFICANTLY. >> THE STREET HAS GOT MORE
INCREMENTALLY NERVOUS. I WONDER HOW MUCH OF THAT IS
INSIDE THE BUBBLE AND THAT IS WHAT DRIVES THE SLOWER WAS FOR
NUMBER. WAGES ARE IMPORTANT FROM THE
CONSUMER POINT OF VIEW. 3.9% IF IT COMES IN AT THAT
LEVEL WOULD REFLECT ONE OF THE SLOWEST GROWTHS IN THREE YEARS.
THAT IS WHAT WE HAD IN THE PREVIOUS MONTHS.
THERE IS THIS POLLUTION OF SLOWDOWN IN INCOME. >> HERE IS A PROBLEM WITH THAT
IF WE WANT TO KEEP MAKING THIS MORE EXCITING. AS THE SURVEY PERIOD THIS MONTH
FOR MAY ENDED ON THE 18TH, IT CAN AND AS EARLY AS THE 12 AND
INCLUDES THE PAY. THAT INCLUDES FRONT OF THE
MONTH. THE WEATHER CALENDAR FELL, THIS
ONE WITH PAST THE 15TH OF THE MONTH WITH -- IF GOT RAISES,
THERE ARE SOME ECONOMISTS WHO ARE LOOKING AND SAYING, IT
WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO MOVE THIS UP FROM A .3 TO .4 AND
MAYBE MOVE UP TO .4% JUST AS A COLANDER QUIRK.
SUPPOSE WE GET A DROP IN JOBS CREATED BUT A RISE IN WAGES,
THEN YOU'RE GOING TO HEAR THAT STAGFLATION WORD AGAIN.
WHAT YOU TRADE ON? THAT IS THE HARD PART.
THE GOOD THING TO KEEP IN MIND, EVEN IF WE FALL TO A
SIGNIFICANTLY LOW NUMBER, IT IS STILL WELL ABOVE THE NUMBER THE
FED CONSIDERS NEUTRAL FOR THE ECONOMY WHICH IS ABOUT 100,000.
ANYTHING HIGHER THAN THAT IS A PRETTY GOOD PAYROLLS REPORT
EVEN THOUGH IT WON'T SEEM LIKE IT BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN SO HIGH
FOR SO LONG. MANUS: I AM SURE YOU WILL MAKE IT
EXCITING FOR THOSE NUMBERS AS THEY COME THROUGH. MIKE MCKEE. JOINING US NOW, DANA.
THE STREET IS GETTING INCREMENTALLY MORE NERVOUS.
IT IS NOT A HUGE SHIP. THERE'S THE BIAS AND THE
WHISPER NUMBER. INSIDE THE CLOCK, THEY'RE
HIDING FOR A LOWER NUMBER. THIS IS JUST A CONFIRMATION
BIAS? THEY WANT AND CONFIRMATION OF A
GRADUAL SLOWDOWN? >> I THINK THE NET MIKE SAID,
YOU THINK 100,000 IS STILL A DECENT NUMBER BUT IT IS ALL
RELATIVE. IT IS THE BIG NUMBERS WE SAW
THE COUPLE OF YEARS WAS CATCH-UP.
MANY INDUSTRIES HAVE CAUGHT UP IN TERMS OF ALL THE WORKERS
THEY LOST DURING THE PANDEMIC. THE BIG DRIVERS ARE JUST A FEW
INDUSTRIES THAT ARE STILL TRYING TO CATCH UP. WE DID SEE LAST MONTH MUST ALL
THE INCREASES WAS IN HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL INSURANCE THESE
ARE, HOSPITALITY, GOVERNMENT PULLED BACK.
IF WE SEE THE PULLBACK AGAIN, THERE'S REALLY ONLY ONE
INDUSTRY DRIVING ANGST. WE WILL SEE A LABOR MARKET KIND OF
TALKED OUT TERMS OF PAYROLL GAINS. MANUS:
LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY, IF THEY DO SHOW PERHAPS SLOW DOWN,
THIS REFLECTS BACK TO THE WAGES COMPONENT.
MANY HAVE SAID, THE GROWTH IN JOBS HAS BEEN AT THE LOWER END.
THE WAGES HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED BECAUSE THE GROWTH IN JOBS HAS
BEEN AT THE LOWER END. IT IS A BIFURCATED MARKET.
WHAT WOULD YOU SAY TO THAT IF WE DO GET TO SLOW DOWN AND HOW
THAT MIGHT PLAY OUT? >> THE OPPOSITE IS HAPPENING
WITH WAGES. WAGES WERE ELEVATED WHEN YOU
COULD NOT FIND ENOUGH PEOPLE TO WORK. BUT NOW, LIKE I SAID, A LOT OF
INDUSTRIES -- EVEN STILL, THE INFLATION ISSUE WHERE WAGES ARE
MUCH HIGHER RELATIVE TO WHERE THEY WERE ON AVERAGE BETWEEN
THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE PANDEMIC.
WAGES ARE GROWING UNDER 3%. NOW THEY ARE JUST UNDER 4%.
THAT IS STILL PRETTY HIGH. WAGES ARE STILL PUTTING UPWARD
PRESSURE ON CONSUMER PRICES WHICH IS SOMETHING THE FED IS
CONCERNED ABOUT. MANUS: YOU HAVE A BASELINE, WHICH IS WAGES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW.
TALKING THE EARNINGS COME EQUITY EARNINGS WILL DELIVER
THE UNDERBELLY STRONGER, HIGH, FIXED INVESTMENT.
THAT IS SOME WAYS WILL HELP CREATE A FLOW IN GROWTH.
WHAT KIND OF SLOW DOWN DO YOU THINK WE WILL GET?
WILL THAT BE COMMENSURATE WITH A MORE BRUTAL UNEMPLOYMENT
SITUATION OR JUST A SLOW DRIFT LOWER AND VERY UNLIKELY TO
CRASH TO THAT 100,000 LEVEL OF JOBS CREATED? >> THE FIRST THING, EARNINGS
AND WHAT THE STOCK MARKET IS DOING DOESN'T REFLECT WHAT THE
REAL ECONOMY IS DOING. THE REAL ECONOMY HAS BEEN
SLOWING BECAUSE CONSUMERS ARE PULLING BACK.
IN THE FIRST QUARTER, CONSUMERS DID NOT BUY ANY GOODS.
THE MOST THEY ARE BUYING RIGHT NOW IS SERVICES AND THAT COULD
PULLBACK AS CONSUMERS ARE COMPLAINING ABOUT PRICE LEVELS
ARE VERY ELEVATED AND INTEREST RATES ARE ALSO ELEVATED. THE EXCESS SAVINGS IS GONE AND
ALSO CONSUMERS HAVE RACKED UP A LOT OF DEAD.
WE DO EXPECT THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO BE EVEN SLOWER IN THE
SECOND AND THIRD QUARTERS BUT IN TERMS OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE RISING, THAT MIGHT TAKE UP A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT MUCH
BECAUSE MUCH OF THE DATA SUGGESTS IF YOU LOOK AT JOBLESS
CLAIMS AND OUR CEO CONFIDENCE MEASURE, COMPANIES ARE NOT
LETTING PEOPLE GO. THEY ARE HOLDING ON WORKERS
BECAUSE OF MANY PEOPLE RETIRING. THAT WILL PUT A CAP ON HOW MANY
PEOPLE GET LET GO EVEN AS THE ECONOMY SLOWS. MANUS:
THE ECB RAISED ESTIMATES FOR INFLATION FOR THIS YEAR AND FOR
NEXT. REAFFIRMING THAT GLOBAL
NARRATIVE THAT IT IS GOING TO BE A BUMPY ROAD.
INFLATION WILL BE STICKING. IT WILL BE HARD TO CALL.
FRANK WAS WITH ME EARLIER AND SAID IT IS GOING TO BE TOUGH
AND BUMPY. HOW STICKY IS DISINFLATION FOR
US WITH OIL WHERE IT IS AT THE MOMENT WITH THE COMMODITY
PRICING THAT WE HAVE AT THE MOMENT? >> WHEN YOU LOOK AT GOODS, OIL
-- ENERGY IS STARTING TO CONTRIBUTE POSITIVELY AGAIN BUT
VERY LITTLE. MOST OF THE INFLATION IS IN
SERVICES. BASICALLY IN THREE BUCKETS.
THE SHELTER COSTS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW BUT IT WILL
TAKE THE REST OF THE YEAR, INSURANCE COSTS, AND THEN WAGES.
SO THE INSURANCE COSTS, WE DON'T KNOW WHEN THAT IS GOING
TO EASE. INSURANCE COMPANIES ARE SAYING
IT IS VERY EXPENSIVE TO INSURE CARS BECAUSE THEY ARE HIGH-TECH.
IT IS VERY EXPENSIVE TO ENSURE HOMES BECAUSE OF THE CLIMATE
EVENTS. WHEN IT COMES TO WAGES, AS LONG
AS COMPANIES ARE WILLING TO PAY UP TO HOLD ONTO WORKERS, THEN
YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE THOSE UPWARD PRESSURES.
THOSE ARE THINGS THAT FED CANNOT NECESSARILY CONTROL.
THE FED IS CONTROLLING THE SHELTER ISSUE BUT IT TAKES A
LONG TIME. MAKING THAT LAST MILE BACK TO
2% A LENGTHY PROCESS. MANUS: YOU ARE DOWN FOR ONE CUT IN THE
FOURTH QUARTER. HOW CONVICTED ARE YOU ON THAT
OR IS THAT GETTING EMBOLDEN? THE MARKET IS GONE A LITTLE BIT EARLIER AND MAYBE A COIN TOSS
FOR SEPTEMBER, SO HOW COMMITTED ARE YOU TO ONE CUT IN DECEMBER
OR ARE YOU SKEWING TO IT COULD POSSIBLY RISE TO TWO THIS YEAR? >> WE DO HAVE TWO CUTS IN
NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER. THE THING IS, EVEN THAT IS A
QUESTIONABLE ISSUE BECAUSE IF INFLATION DOESN'T CONTINUE TO
SLOW AND IT STAYS WHERE IT IS BECAUSE OF THOSE UPWARD
PRESSURES I MENTIONED THAT THE FED HAS LIMITED CONTROL OVER,
THEN WE MIGHT NOT HAVE ANY CUTS THIS YEAR.
WE ARE OPTIMISTIC THE EVENT CAN SQUEEZE IN AT LEAST 50 BASIS
POINTS. EVEN WITH THAT YOU'RE SO GOING
TO HAVE A FEDERAL FUNDS RATE THAT IS 5%.
THAT IS STILL VERY ELEVATED INTEREST RATES. MANUS:
PRETTY MUCH WORTHWHILE TO KEEP SOME MONEY IN CASH AS OPPOSED
TO HIGH RISK ASSETS. DANA, WE ARE COUNTING DOWN TO
THE NUMBERS. DANA PETERSON OF THE CONFERENCE
BOARD, MY GUEST THIS MORNING. COMING UP, THE CHIP FRENZY
CONTINUES. SALES ROSE 30% IN MAY DRIVEN BY
A IDEM AND. IT IS A SLOWING DOWN.
GOOD MORNING FROM NEW YORK. COMING UP, 9:00 A.M. MANUS: IT IS THE WORLD'S LARGEST
CHIPMAKER CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM THE AI BOOM, SALES RISE
30% TO MORE THAN $7 BILLION. LET'S BRING IN TOM MACKENZIE.
NEVER FAR FROM A CHIP STORY. IT IS JUST THE VERACITY EVERY
DAY WITH WHAT YOU REPORT ON THE STORIES.
WHAT CAUSED THAT SPIKE OR IS THAT THE BEGINNING OF A NEW
DEMAND ITERATION? TOM? >> IT IS A COMBINATION OF TWO
THINGS WITH TSMC. YOU ON YOUR, 30% INCREASE FOR
THIS CONTRACT ANTI-VAXXER. ONE, THEY'RE STARTING TO SEE A
REBOUND IN TERMS OF ELECTRONICS DEMAND.
LOOKING FOR THAT IPHONE FOR EXAMPLE.
THEY PRODUCE THE VAST MAJORITY OF APPLES IPHONES.
THE OTHER COMPONENT IS THE CONTINUED DEMAND FOR AI
ACCELERATORS. TSMC IS THE FOUNDRY. THEY HAVE TO SYMBIOTIC
RELATIONSHIP WITH NVIDIA. YOU'RE ON YOUR, LOOK, YOU
TODAY, TSMC IS UP ABOUT 15%. IT IS A FACT YOU ARE STARTING
TO SEE A BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SMARTPHONE BUSINESS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE DEMAND FOR AI ACCELERATORS LEADING TO THE
OPTIMISM YOU ARE STARTING TO SEE AROUND TSMC. MANUS:
I AM ALL IN. I WOULD PROBABLY PAY MONEY FOR
IT. ACTUALLY I DON'T KNOW I WOULD
PAY MONEY FOR THE AI. I WILL HAVE TO DO RESEARCH.
NVIDIA. A NUMBER OF GUESTS, PAY MONEY
AND TAKE YOUR CHOICE. DEMOCRATIZATION OF NVIDIA MEANS
MANY MORE PEOPLE CAN BUY. THAT IS A GOOD THING.
BUT WITH THAT DEMOCRATIZATION COMES VOLATILITY.
TALK ME THROUGH THE STOCK SPLIT. IT GOES LIVE.
WHAT ARE YOU HEARING IN TERMS OF THAT? >> 10 FOR WHAT IS THE TALK
SPLIT. IT IS NOT THE FIRST TIME THEY
HAVE DONE A STOCK SPLIT. IT COMES ON THE BACKS OF THE
BLOWOUT EARNINGS. MOST RECENT EARNINGS, BIG BEAT.
THEY COME OUT OF THIS DECISION AROUND THE 10 FOR ONE.
THE STOCK IS 1200 OR THEREABOUTS?
THEY SAY THEY WANT TO MAKE IT EASIER NOT FOR EMPLOYERS BUT
INVESTORS. THERE'S A COST OF DOING THIS. THERE'S A QUESTION ABOUT
VOLATILITY. IT DOESN'T CHANGE THE FACT
YOU'RE STILL GOING TO GET YOUR DIVIDENDS SPLIT BY 10 IF YOU
ARE A SHAREHOLDER. IT DOES NOT CHANGE THE
FUNDAMENTALS OF THIS BUSINESS. THERE SOME RESEARCH MAY BE IN
THE BACK OF THE STOCK SPLIT YOU GET A BIT OF A POP.
MAYBE THAT COMES THROUGH AND WE WILL GET PRINT PRICE ON THAT ON
MONDAY OF COURSE. FOR THEM, THEY WANT TO MAKE
SURE THE SHARE IS ACCESSIBLE TO AS BROAD A GROUP AS POSSIBLE IN
AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE TRIPLED IN VALUE LAST YEAR, UP 145% SO FAR
YOUR TODAY. MANUS: IS THERE ANYONE WHO CONSIDERS
LATE CHALLENGE NVIDIA OR AMD IN THE NEAR-TERM? >> IT DESTINED TO BE A
CONSENSUS WHEN YOU SPEAK TO THE ANALYST, THEY HAVE THE LEAD
TIME. THE DEMAND IS OUTSTRIPPING SUPPLY FOR NVIDIA. THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO 2025. WE KNOW AMD, INTEL BEEN THERE
INVESTMENTS TO TRY AND CLOSE THE GAP. THE GAP IS SIZABLE.
IT IS NOT JUST THE CHIPS, IT IS ALSO THE SERVICES COMPONENT THE
SOFTWARE COMPONENT. WE GOT A REMINDER OF THAT.
NOT SITTING ON HIS LAURELS. HE HAS HIS ANNUAL UPGRADE CYCLE
AND PUSHING NOT JUST THE DATA CENTERS THAT PROVIDES ABOUT 70%
OF REVENUES BUT ALSO PERSONAL LAPTOPS AND ENTERPRISE
COMPONENT., WITH 60% OR SO MARGIN.
THE QUESTION IS, EXPECTATIONS AROUND THE STOCK, ARE THEY SO
HIGH IF YOU GET A BIT OF A MISSTEP IN THE NEXT EARNINGS
DOES THAT KNOCK TOO FAR? COMPETITION IS A STORY WORTH
WATCHING. SOME OF THEIR MAIN CUSTOMERS
ARE BUILDING OTHER UNCOMPETITIVE CHIPS AS WELL.
MANUS: THANK YOU SO MUCH. TO THE MARKET COME THIRD WEEK
OF LOSSES IN THE OIL MARKET AS THE OPEC-PLUS APPLY PLAN
RATTLES THE MARKET. THIS IS THE WORLD'S BIGGEST
PRODUCER SAID TO BREAK IN MORE THAN 1 BILLION IN ITS MEGA
STOCK OFFERING TODAY. THERE'S THE PRICE OF CRUDE. THIS WAS A TOUGH COUPLE OF
WEEKS TO TAKE SECONDARY OFFERING TO THE MARKET.
COMPETITION DOMESTICALLY WITH SOME OTHER IPOS.
TALK YOU THE MARKETING HAVE THIS AND WHAT WAS THE MESSAGE
TO GLOBAL INVESTORS. COOKS BIG WEEK IN SAUDI ARABIA
BECAUSE WE DID HAVE THE OPEC MEETING AT THE SAME TIME AS
THIS RAMCO GOING ON BY THE SAUDI GOVERNMENT.
THE REAL VALUE IS THE DIVIDEND. THAT THIS MASSIVE DIVIDEND THIS
YEAR AND THAT IS ROUGHLY $30 BILLION MORE THAN THEY PAID OUT
LAST YEAR. IT IS A BIG JUMP AND THAT IS TO
THE SPECIAL DIVIDEND THERE PAYING OUT BASED ON THE UPPER
EARNINGS OF 2022 AND THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT KEEPING THAT
SPECIAL DIVIDEND. WE DON'T KNOW THE LEVEL YET BUT
KEEPING SOME SORT OF SPECIAL DIVIDEND GOING FORWARD IN THE
YEARS GOING FORWARD SO THEY ARE TRYING TO ATTRACT WITH THAT
DIVIDEND. THE SHARES LOOK A LITTLE
EXPENSIVE COMPARED TO OTHER PEERS IN THE MARKET. AND THERE IS THAT ISSUE OF THE
REDUCED PRODUCTION IN SAUDI ARABIA BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO
ABIDE BY THOSE OPEC-PLUS AGREEMENTS.
SO SHAREHOLDERS ARE ASKED TO INVEST ON THE STREET THAT THAT
DIVIDEND COME INVESTING IN A COMPANY NOT REALLY ABLE TO
PRODUCE AS MUCH OIL AS IT COULD. THAT IS THE ISSUE THAT BIG
GOVERNMENT OVERHANG IN TERMS OF DECISIONS ON SAUDI ARABIA, ONE
OF THOSE THINGS THAT HAVE KEPT INVESTORS SKEPTICAL ABOUT SAUDI
ARABIA ARAMCO. YOU SEE MORE INTERNATIONAL
INTEREST IN THIS OFFER NOW AND WE DID IN THE IPO WHICH WAS IN
2019. SHAREHOLDERS, INVESTORS RATHER,
SEEM TO BE FAIR, THEY HAD TO PRICE
IT AT A 6% DISCOUNT. THEY DID NOT HAVE TO THROW IT
AWAY. IS THE MARKET BECOMING MORE
ACCEPTING OF THE RELEASE BACK? IT HAS BEEN CALLED AN
INSPIRATIONAL PAUSE. OPEC-PLUS SAYS THEY WILL HIT
THE PAUSE BUTTON IF THEY NEED TO. TO THAT GET REAFFIRMED THIS
WEEK? >> I THINK THAT WAS THE BIG
MESSAGE YESTERDAY WHEN THE SAUDI ENERGY MINISTERS WERE IN ST. PETERSBURG NEXT TO THE RUSSIAN
ENERGY MINISTERS AND THEY TALKED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
PAUSING THAT AND NOT GOING AHEAD WITH THAT.
THE MARKET WAS ALREADY LOOKING AT THIS A LITTLE BIT
SKEPTICALLY STUFF DOUBTFUL THERE WAS THE SPACE TO BRING
THOSE BARRELS BACK. NOW IT IS PUT UP A NEW
QUESTION, WILL THEY BRING THOSE BACK OR NOT?
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE. MANUS: ANTHONY, THANK YOU. COMING UP, THERE'S ONLY ONE
EVENT THAT MATTERS, THE JOBS REPORT.
YOUR WHISPER NUMBER STANDS AT 166. IT IS A BEAUTIFUL DAY.
IT IS DAWN IN NEW YORK. GAMESTOP UP.
DUCKY SIGN, POST EARNINGS DOCUSIGN
SEEING POST EARNINGS DECLINE. THERE'S ONLY ONE MARKET THAT
REALLY DOMINATES EVERYTHING AND IT IS THE TAIL THAT WAGGED THE
PROVERBIAL DOG, THE BOND MARKET OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
THE JOBS REPORT. THERE YOU GO. YOU NEED TO SEE SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW 166 TO INVOKE A MOVE LOWER.
JP MORGAN, CITI ARE GOING FOR JULY BREAKUP.
I APPLAUD THE OPTIMIST THAT SAY THE JOB REPORT GIVES YOU IN
TERMS OF JOBS COME HOURS WORKED, AND WAGES EARNED.
