Australian Bush Fires... dumb conspiracies!

so recently pothole of 54 absolutely knocked it out of the park with this vide about the the causes of Australia's bushfires and basically really taking to task all those who are pimping every distraction and conspiracy theory to avoid the blindingly obvious fact that Australia being hotter he's a correlated factor to bush fires in Australia and one of the case crops up more than once is one Porto chef Watson who is either comically stupid or every I mean the the way that he himself in conspiracy theories I he could just be a very sophisticated Stephen Colbert character or maybe he just he's that dumb anyway this is what he has to say about the the causes of the Australian bushfires which is exactly what all the other experts are saying droughts in the affected regions were caused by a natural weather phenomenon the Indian Ocean dipole II not by man-made climate change sorry I AK yeah as always about to go on and say it's called a bloody dipole I mean it really is like someone boldly and confidently giving you advice on how to fix your engine Walt's mispronouncing the word engine as in gain or something like that a it's like you you really just don't have the slightest clue and even these it's like yeah okay there are a natural weather phenomena that cause weather patterns and when there's more energy in the system these things become more severe basically it is too to the being of the planet being hotter like your public statements on climate change it is nuanced see here which is exactly what all the other experts are saying droughts in the affected regions were caused by a natural weather phenomenon the Indian Ocean deepali not yes the Indian Ocean dipole a which which he's related to the temperature of the planet anyway there's another point where he crops up which is about the five-minute mark which is also very comical nineteen 1901 average December mean continent and on that continent average temperatures haven't been significantly higher either in fact okay you got that he's gonna tell you that temperatures haven't been significantly higher either let's see what wonderful evidence he's got for that back to during the years 1899 to 1901 a ver egde December mean maximum temperatures were well above 38 degrees but a which point is like what what did he just say 19 1901 average he's gonna basically end up December 18 temperatures haven't been significantly higher either in fact during the years 1899 290 1899 you know one average to 1901 he's talking about these data points here for one single place of or the average temperature for December Walgett he's not talking about the country he's talking about one bloody weather station where the data stops 30 years before the present I mean this data stops in about 1990 it's like December mean maximum temperatures were well above no it's December mean maximum temperatures now it turns out you can actually go to this very website and you can see what the average mean Matt well the average temperatures for Australia being like and you see that it increased by about one degree over the last hundred years or so which is comparable to what you get for most of the rest of the planet and you know it's not so symmetric in terms of you know heating and rainfall all that sort of thing but on average it's heated up about a degree keep that number in mind okay and you can also type in the place that you're one which in this place in this case is a place called wall gap never heard of it but and you do your search and you come up with this and you get the actual weather data and indeed you will see that the weather data stops Oh short of the year 2000 which is twenty years ago now now anyone with eventually just uh started scrolling through these and eventually came to the nearest place which had a continuous data set which was the hospital and you know just for a place in the same rough locality where they have data up to the present so it's a hundred years of worth of data now I did also find a blog as just blog but someone basically doing a data analysis on all yet that's where the place is and they they looked at you know all the weather stations in the area and what do you know the temperature he is heated up by about a degree or so over the last 100 years hey it's mean world are are Paul to Civ Watson is not cherry-picking data at all because of of the hot year back in well whenever that was anyway so if you actually pull out this data you actually take a look at that and what's your fine get the data wrap first thing first I'm going to plot up the yearly December data there we go boom that's your December data for the last hundred years and December is almost it's like 40-something degrees it job cooker anyway so you tend not to see trends very easily like this especially if you're looking for remember what the average heating of Australia was it was about 1 degree Celsius so clearly you're gonna have to do some averaging on this so the averaging I did was I just took around I was seven-year rolling average or something and you take seven year old a fridge and you get to something that looks like that so yeah last few years there's been quite nap taking in temperature now we add that yeah it's it's been hotter and core over the years but of course you know if you want forest fires you want what you want you don't want any rain and you want it to be hot for a few weeks you know to dry out land it's not going to dry out just because you've had a few hot days or something so let's take a look at the rest of the year let's take a look in November and again lots of noise on the November but we heat up by about 1 degree Celsius over a hundred years October mmm is a bit all over the place not much of a pattern there the September dater is incredible I mean the September's for the last 20 years have been up to three degrees warmer than then they've historically been which is he and the same news were there August and July which is obviously where it's cold in Australia again you know you do get the the 1 degree temperature rise ba [Music] and I think for the first half of the year there's nowhere near as much of a pattern for the first half of the year yeah Emmy Anders around a bit yeah the one where there is the really dramatic change is that's March is September and September is like bloody hell look at this anyway and if you plot thou up for the year and the year on average yeah you know it if you average over the whole year mmm it's difficult to say but I mean II okay there's been a warming trend for the last yeah whatever thirty years or something but you know you don't really care about that if you're looking for the fires you need to be dry for a few weeks and yeah at that point you're into what's the rainfall like and that's the weather pattern the he was talking about earlier this this Indian Ocean dipole and the more energy there is in it the more water it can potentially move around or or suck out from one place it's easy essentially what you're looking at so often thought that you know maybe a better analogy for all of this yeah because these these people who want to cast doubt and dispersion on you know the correlation between there being a hotter planet and more extreme weather events is yeah it would be like claiming the cigarettes don't cause cancer because someone smoked a cigarette and they didn't get cancer in fact they spoke fifty cigarettes and they can get cancer you know these things are statistical events I mean as you could see I mean they're from the weather it's bloody obvious that you need to average it for you know years before you can even start to see the patterns in this and even of that you know September is the one where there's the big change but yeah you you look at these things over the period of a hundred years and the whole continent the pattern is clear so you claiming the did this doesn't affect whether is a kind of some hardcore denial but he's also kind of like claiming that cigarettes don't cause cancer or you know drinking doesn't actually affect your chances of dying in a car crash cuz you know you can actually drink quite a lot and not die therefore you know people who drank less than you and died in a car crash couldn't have been due to them pimpare due to alcohol so yeah there's statistical events you know these extreme fires you can't have directly correlate one to one but you know you you can certainly correlate once you get into you know patterns that span over years to decades like this you know be I know that they were predicting this that you know there'd be more extreme weather forest fire seasons yeah they were predicting that I think in than twenty years ago you know they were actually putting out science studies that were predicting this anyway I strongly recommend you go and take a look at potholders video it's bloody awesome and thanks for watching

Channel: VoiceOfThunder

Views: 32,614

Rating: 4.6707745 out of 5

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Id: 99Vrilwu1hg

Length: 12min 42sec (762 seconds)

Published: Sun Jan 26 2020