2020 WM Sustainability Forum - Peter Zeihan

we we didn't trade goods we traded ammo and if you saw something you thought you needed you went out and you took the damn thing you confiscated it you colonized it you expand it into Empire and those empires fought over resources and markets and populations those fights brought us world war two which took the entire system and crashed it now at the end of that war of the Americans the last men standing pulled their allies together and said we're gonna try something new this time instead of everyone having a separate sequestered Imperial system everything's gonna be pooled the American Navy the only one to survive the war will patrol the global oceans for everyone so that anyone can go anywhere at any time purchase any Rock commodity ship at home safely metabolize it into a finish good export it for hard currency there's just one catch you have to pick sides we bribed up an alliance to fight the cold war and it gave us this map the deep blue that's our front and backyard those are the places we cared about before the war the medium blue those are the new allies in this new global order the first global order oranger the other guys we don't like to talk about them and the light blue is the field of competition everything mattered every day the Americans could never deny battle because the credibility of the Alliance Network was at stake and then one Idol Tuesday and the very definition of pent up demand the Germans had a party and it was all over Americans didn't have a plan for the next day we assumed that the only way that the Cold War would end was with nuclear annihilation we hadn't thought about the next day and so almost overnight our view of the world changed now there's a lot of gray up here a lot of places that Americans just don't have a firm opinion on and this is the environmental crisis is one slide because all of these places that we really don't care about are now part of the global Commons one of the outside effects of the global order is global trade Global transport global energy markets we allowed all of this to industrialize at the same time and that put us exactly where we are right now now the person who is in charge the day of the law fell was George Herbert Walker Bush who from a foreign policy point of view is by far the best president this country's ever had he's certainly studied for the job vice president ran the CIA served in the House of Representatives ambassador to China Iran the office of budget have excellent first-name relationships with everyone on both sides of the American political aisle got along great with all the world leaders who mattered he was the right person in the right place at the right time with the right skill set so of course we voted him out of office and we started down the parade of morons Bill Clinton smartest dude to serve in the West Wing since Jefferson but he had an attention deficit issue he wasn't interested in Foreign Affairs saw himself as a leader of national renewal and when he realized that he had a foreign summit the next day he'd call up the State Department and CIA desk officers and have them come over to the west wing and him cram for the summit like he was back in college and studying for a test he was a millennial before his time if you will and he'd hit it out of the park he was just that good in small group settings relations would always sore for a day never any follow-up W let's call it what it was monochromatic foreign policy that dealt with one issue in one region everything else could hang Obama had a really weird personality quirk for a world leader he hates people he hates having conversations no American president went to Congress fewer times met with his cabinet secretaries fewer times met with his own party allies fewer times well there is one exception you guys remember William Harrison he caught a pneumonia during his inauguration speech died on day 30 Obama beats him but nobody else think of the brilliant conscientious people who have served as diplomats in this country in the last 25 years Madeleine Albright : Powell Condoleezza Rice Hillary Clinton John Kerry these are some of those smartest people alive in Western civilization some of the most conscientious well I don't know if Hillary's conscientious but she makes up for beating buttons being smarter but we've had a lack of leadership we didn't leverage it we have had the opportunity for the last generation to redesign the world however we want and we passed it up and just how making a bad decision can reverberate for decades so can refusing to make a decision at all the horror and the glory of Donald Trump is that at his core he's right the global order we created to fight the Cold War no longer serves American strategic needs it hasn't since the Wall fell but he's also wrong because it was never designed to serve American economic means we subsidize the Alliance the Alliance fights the Soviets that was the deal we never invested our economy into that system because if we had it wouldn't have been a bribe and so were the least involved economy in the world last year less than 8% of GDP came from exports about half of that is within NAFTA we can easily have a regional security and trade system without needing a global one and that's exactly where we are headed so the question then becomes if the United States is stepping back if we're dropping the mantle of leadership is there anyone else out there that can pick it up someone who can replace displace the United States as the global hegemon well there's two things you need first you have to be able to provide global maritime security 85 percent of global trade travels the ocean blue let's look at that now on the right you've got a traditional jump carrier and on the left you have a super carrier on the deep blue sea without support from land-based assets it takes eight jump carriers to fight off a single super there are 21 jump carriers in the world the US Navy operates 11 of those there are 11 super carriers in the world the US Navy operates all of them at current rates of global naval build-out assuming the Americans never add a new weapon system the combined navies of the rest of the planet will roughly equal American naval firepower today in the year 20 to 40 I don't lose a lot of sleep over this by the way the Chinese have two of these one used to be a casino the other one is a clone of the one that used to be a casino context so there's no country there's no coalition of countries that can displace the United States in our lifetime at a minimum what's the second piece consumption because if people aren't buying the export it really doesn't matter right let's look at that this is a standard demographic profile children at the bottom young adults mature adults retirees at the top dudes on one side women on the other side mortality builds it into a pyramid this is what we call a consumption based system because whenever you've got a bulge and your population structure roughly below age 40 it's all about the spending its kids and college and cars mortgages pot you know spend spend spend but third Wow in Arizona that worked panting work in California anyway when American business leaders and politicians look at a system like Mexico we see the perfect partner two big reasons number one young people are new at their jobs they don't have a lot of experience their value added is relatively limited Mexico is good at relatively low end manufacturing and assembly that's not what the US is known for we do design we do high-end and so the propensity for interlocking trade and reinforcing supply chains is legion ii consumption that's a lot of mexicans that are upwardly mobile that are consumption driven they buy a lot of American exports last year Mexico became America's largest trading partner it is a position that they will not give up in our lifetimes this is a partner this is not Canada had a baby bust almost 50 years ago they have yet to recover they've got a big bulge up in the 50s and 60s workers with 30 40 years of expertise very highly skilled very high value-added but there aren't or there's two problems number one there's so many of them in that class they've pushed down the relative cost of their own labor we see that as product dumping second there aren't a lot of people in their 20s and 30s to consume those products so they have to export it that's definitely product dumping 80% of it comes here Canada is no longer a partner Canada is now a competitor and if you can't get your birth rate back up eventually you agent is something like Japan running a first world economy without a workforce you have to automate and Japan has taken a interesting twist on that they've picked up entire chunks of their industrial plant and relocated them out of Japan put them into other countries and with more stable demographic structures in order to build where they sell Toyota's largest facilities Texas Kentucky here's us we're kind of in the middle kind of a chimney there's two generations we have to call out first of all the baby boomers they are the largest generation as a percent of the population in the history of this country and they are at the edge of retirement making them very capital rich and that has implications for everything that we do think about how you invest when you're 35 you put a small sliver of a small income away for the future when you're 55 you put a big fat wedge of a much larger income away and then when you're 64 and 3/4 every possible dime you can spare you put into your retirement account as you age you generate more and more capital that gets dumped into the market which is available for lenders on cheaper and cheaper terms this is the most capital rich the easiest capital environment we have ever seen but then you retire you never add to it again and you start drawing down your savings it's the equivalent of walking up to a cliff and jumping off we jump off that cliff the boomers hit mass retirement on average in the year 2022 which means we've got three years of this capital structure and then we can look forward to the cost of capital at least quadrupling if you're gonna borrow do it now next generation the Millennials now normally I like to spend about 45 minutes out of every presentation talking about why the Millennials are waste of skin I only have 45 minutes so we're instead gonna go through all the reasons that we should be very grateful that the Millennials are with us for you boomers on you Xers fret not this won't take long there's only three reasons one consumption all that filet mignon dog food all those juice bar memberships all those goddamn scooters they add up millennial consumption by itself has kept this country out of recession since 2009 we would have had at least two industrial recessions since then if it wasn't for them that's amazing second if you fast-forward to the year 2030 when the Millennials are in charge they will fill out the tax paying class in a way that Generation X my generation never could there is a light at the end of the fiscal tunnel it is not a train it's a millennial whether that makes you jump for joy or when a cry in the corner is entirely up to you third we think of the Millennials in this country is the end-all and the be-all but in reality they are all alone in the night if you look at the rich world demography combined without the Americans it's a retirement community even if the Americans remained engaged the global system of greater markets more access technological advancements more interconnectivity was going to collapse in the next decade anyway the economic model we started with the discovery of the new world in the 1500s ends in the next 10 years we do not have an economic model for what comes at next we need a new ISM we have no idea what that will be and even if the Americans wanted to remain engaged this is all about to come crashing down quick look around the world 30 years after the one-child policy the Chinese have run out of 30 year-olds because that is how math works but it's not better elsewhere the Koreans are actually aging faster the Thais almost as quickly if there's one country on this planet that we thought in that can't have an open honest conversation about how to generate population that would be Germany and it shows and if there was one country that we thought and cracked the code on having a lot of kids that would be Italy but apparently we were all wrong Poland only slightly worse Russia assuming you by Russian statistics and they just found 8 million children aged 10 and under in the last 18 months that's still pretty terminal oh there we go Brazil will save us right country the future yeah yeah yeah I look at the top left that's Brazil 30 years ago here's Brazil today they're aging at six times the American rate the average American will be younger than the average Brazilian in the year 2042 the average American became younger than the average Chinese citizen two years ago folks there's only two countries in the advanced world that have a demography anywhere close to replacement similar to the US and while the French can handle the catering and the Kiwis can manage the bar a global order that does not make this was all going to end anyway now if you remove the Americans from the equation let the chips fall where they may you will get dozens of brushfire wars as countries weather out a desperation or opportunity feel forced to take matters into their own hands these are the zones I expect to see the greatest conflict for those of you know your history you'll recognize that these are the zones that have seen the most drastic wars throughout history it's where the world's geopolitical tectonic plates come together for those of you who know your economic history you will recognize these zones as the sites of the greatest economic growth that we have seen since the 1940s that's because of the order the Americans forced everybody to be on the same side.we outlawed war and enabled global trade it was base effect growth and it's all about to come violently unwound there's a transition period where the United States is figuring out what pieces of this it wants to keep these are the five trade deals that we've got Korea Japan Mexico Canada United Kingdom of those four of them are done they're ratified they're being implemented the fifth one the United Kingdom that'll be done this year in the case of everyone but Mexico there were no negotiations the United States held all the cards we controlled the global system global finance global energy global trade then the only market that was worth having access to in the long run they were imposed the one exception is Mexico because it is also a consumption based society that those were real talks and believe it or not Mexican American relations are the best that they have been in the history of both republics right now considering we've got Eagle maniacs on both sides of the border that's kind of a surprise but you know take the win where you can get it there will not be a deal with China now I can give you 30 40 reasons why China will not be a unified nation state 10 years from now this is the big one it's those islands off the coast Japan Taiwan the Philippines Indonesia Singapore the Chinese call it the first island chain and there has never been a chapter of Chinese history in the last 3,500 years where the Chinese have been able to push past that chain and in an economic basis integrate with any lands beyond them it's a security issue they just can't get past it well there's one exception right now under the order because the Americans put everybody on the same side all the United States has to do if it wants to destroy China completely is go home pretty sure we can manage that all right let's get into environmentalism give you an idea of just how hosed we are this is how oil flowed back at the dawn of the shale revolution we had three big sources of demand North America Western Europe they would take crude from wherever they could possibly get at all points of the compass anything that was left over would make the long sail around the Southeast Asian landmass to Northeast Asia because if you were trying to Japan in the neighbors there was no local sourcing yet to take whatever was left over and you had to pay a premium for that based on the season and geopolitical risk that's anywhere from one dollar a barrel to 15 but fast forward seven years the shale revolution proved that it consisted around US energy imports dropped by a million barrels a day for seven years straight the Europeans had a financial crisis they proved they could make that stick an energy demand plummeted all of a sudden Northeast Asia is the only part of the planet experiencing organic demand growth you have to get there if you want to sell your product so the Asians instead of having to pay a premium got a discount now review human history for the last oh I don't know four thousand years big concentration of conflicts in places like the Russian periphery and the Persian Gulf what happens if the next time there is when the Americans are nowhere to be found you guys remember back in November when the Iranians threw some cruise missiles at Saudi Arabia they had an oil processing facility called Bob cake the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia called up Trump and said hey dude because you just didn't notice the Iranian just took them off more oil took more all oil offline than the Allies did during the entirety of World War two and they did it in an hour you know if Reagan was in charge I would not have to make this call you would have already nuked Tehran what are you gonna do Andres Trump's response literally was I'm sorry I can't deal with this right now I've got a fundraiser we don't care the u.s. achieved energy independence last year which means the u.s. exit stage left never to return the Europeans go out and faced with her own colonies to make sure the crude comes to them they have the capacity to do that their colonies are local and if you are China or Japan or Taiwan or Korea you're our only remaining option as to take your Navy sail it to the Persian Gulf pick sides in a centuries-old blood feud that is devolved into a knife fight load up the crude yourself and convoy at home hoping that no one in this environment finds big slow-moving super tankers full of crude oil to be a valuable target now if this were anywhere else in the world I'd be really worried but if there's anything we know about Korea and Japan and China and Taiwan it's they've got a brotherly centuries-old history of brotherly love and cooperation and nothing could possibly go wrong or they start shooting each other over energy folks global energy markets gonna shatter and either you have it or you don't give you an idea of what's happening here and instead the broader the bar the greater the volume of crude oil production the taller the bar the greater its cost of production US shale is there and the top aren't on the left and the light blue bar this is 2012 data back then we kicked it out about 4 million barrels a day strategically significant but for an economy our size not really a game-changer but here's where we were as of three weeks ago not only is the US now net independent the price point for production here is below the opec average and is rapidly approaching saudi arabian prices we're insulated and with the speed of a tweet the american president already has the power to sever US energy markets from global energy markets so we can have a functional ceiling here 60 to 70 and a functional floor everywhere else of 200 or more now why am i bringing this up in an environmental conference oil is not the fuel of the future for most of the world they were not going to be able to afford it not be able to get it but it is here we'll come back to that this is what I like to call the checkbook map every dot is somebody who can pay their power bill now right here this is by far the most the absolute most important city in the history of humanity this is Marshalltown Iowa this is where I'm from here is Bismarck North Dakota should you ever find yourself in the neighborhood I recommend you go to Fargo instead and this is not a rave Western North Dakota what like two and a half people live there they don't need that lit up it's lit up because of a problem with transport now oil is a liquid you can put it into a bucket or a railcar whatever it can be transported any number of manners but natural gas disperses so you have to have a leak-free system to collect it to transit it to deliver it to end uses and those end uses have to be able to process and consume that natural gas at the pace that it comes in because storage is almost impossible now here in the US we've got the largest and most redundant natural gas distribution system but we can't keep up with what is bubbling out of the shale fields as a waste product so we have to flare it until the infrastructure can catch up and you can see that from space what can't you do with a bottomless supply of the world's most versatile industrial input well for starters we burn it for power and about 40% ish of the reductions that we've seen in greenhouse gases in this country have come from displacing coal and using natural gas instead by the way that's about five times what we've achieved with our solar investment does it go to zero no but it's going in the right direction now burning stuff for power not very creative so we've done other things oh whoops apparently don't have much slide for that okay going back to this oil is not the only fuel you guys remember natural gas you can cool it freeze it put it on two tankers ship at other places these are the folks that use liquefied natural gas as a major fuel stock you'll notice that those North East Asian for they use more than everybody else together so not only will most of the world not be able to use oil most will not be able to use natural gas okay that provides some opportunities right we have to find other ways to power the future for most countries let's look at the green text cuz just like everything else geography matters any area in red is a zone where solar power with today's technology makes both environmental sense and economic sense doesn't mean you can go 100% but you can do quite a bit if you're in orange it probably doesn't make economic sense but it still makes environmental sense if you're in yellow it's a wash environmentally and it totally not worth the cost if you're in green and you put up solar panels you have probably increased your carbon footprint the Germans have put up what 60 terawatt capacity in the last 20 years but the carbon emissions haven't fallen why the Sun doesn't shine in Germany so let's look at the same thing here it is for wind again red makes environmental and economic sense orange only makes environmental sense green luckily with wind towers nobody puts up wind towers where it's not windy people put up solar panels where it's not sunny all the time which makes no sense to me but at least people in the wind world are smarter about it oops but this is this is still the ideal now you have to remove all land where it's not appropriate so you're not going to put a wind tower above 10,000 feet the air density isn't enough to turn the blades you're not going to put up solar panels over a cornfield because you know that Sun is needed for other things you factor that out and it shrinks areas in green are good for solar areas in blue are good for wind and areas in the dark green are good for both but we're not done because you still have to get the power to the people if you factor out everything that's more than a thousand miles away from a population center you're talking less than five percent of the population with today's cities can actually go green with today's technology now if you're putting up solar panels in an area that's not green on this it's not that it's a disaster probably although if you put up solar panels and southern China or Germany or just an idiot but it does mean that you can't move the needle very much and you have to really ask if you're spending the money on the right thing so if most of the world can't use oil and they can't use natural gas and they can't use solar and they can't use wind all that's left is coal breaking down global markets presents a lot of countries with some very interesting choices of the top 50 economies in the world which collectively make up about 95 percent of economic activity on this planet about one-fifth Russia Iran the United States can generate the power themselves they have local fossil fuels another 10 Sweden Chile Mexico can get it from their neighbors another tenth Britain and Japan Italy can go out and freakin take it from other people and for everyone else it's a choice they can de lect Rifai d industrialize and d sibylla's i D civilize and watch their societies crumble or they can use coal now we're not even to this decision point yet it's coming it'll be here in the next decade but the Germans have already chosen not even just to go to coal but to go to lignite now lignite is an ultra-soft partially decomposed coal that's about 20 percent water by weight it is the least energetic of the fossil fuels and by far the most polluting the Germans have spent more than 2 trillion euros and turning their system green but because it doesn't work in Germany they've had to go to lignite 2 trillion euros and their emissions have only fallen by 7 percent apparently the Germans aren't as good as massive was we all thought now my point of this is to not make you all depressed my point is that we need to change the conversation my point is that we need to approach sustainability in a more sustainable manner right now the global norm is that we're going to push for a utopian global organizational structure that has never worked before and certainly isn't we're going to work now in order to push this technology suite that we fetishized that we know doesn't work we need different green texts we need better green texts and above all we need green technologies that are appropriate for the environment that we are evolving into geopolitically I'm going to close with two economic sectors that improve central to making this work just to give you an idea of where these breakthroughs might happen well honestly where they have to happen if this is going to work first manufacturing that yellow circle no metal one point five five five that's total value added manufacturing in the United States all the arrows pointing in indicate where the components come from and in what volumes they're color coded by likelihood of disruption in the world we're about to be in if it's in green it's probably fine if it's in yellow figure one in four by value isn't gonna make it orange one and two and if it's in red it's not gonna make it at all you'll notice that there's a lot of green and no red this doesn't mean that US manufacturing is immune to what's coming down the pipe but it does mean that we will have to make some adjustments we can manage it the Germans can't the German system is one of being at war with its neighbors until the order and especially in the post Cold War version of the order every country that the Germans border which is oral countries that they've been at war with multiple times are all on the same side and the Germans in video will integrate not just within their network but beyond into the world were at large they're the biggest supplier of high-end manufacturing components to China for example but that only works so long as we are in an environment of global trade where the oceans are safe for everyone and everything is consumption based you remove that you remove the Americans and the German manufacturing model collapses they certainly don't have the consumption at home but as bad as it is for the Germans it's far worse for the Chinese you guys have all heard of main in China 2020 right I'm sorry made in China 2025 if you speak to a government bureaucrat in Beijing but you know behind the scenes where no one's listening they will freely admit that the 2025 target has nothing to do with self-sufficiency it's just the first step they don't expect to be technologically equivalent to the United States until about 2080 there's no way they've got that kind of time every product that the Chinese make is dependent upon international connections and those connections are about to go away so if there is going to be a manufacturing angle to whatever this new green tech is gonna be it pretty much has to be done in North America and first we've got to find it and first we've got to pay for its development which means first we have to talk about finance now this blue line is the private credit curve total private credit from all sources in the United States to all end-users the only thing that's not included is interbank lending so if you're a financial institution and you're lending to another financial institution we're not what we're washing that out this is everything else mortgages credit cards institutional loans Community Development bonds everything starts at 2000 that bump in the middle that's 2007 that was our financial crisis we doubled total private credit in seven years that was too much that was too fast as a result we had a financial induced recession five percent came off of headline GDP since then we've dropped we've bounced back the credit curve now is something much more similar to the century average does that mean that we are immune to recessions of course not but it does mean that the next recession probably won't be triggered by a financial problem and since Finance can ripple through to all other economic sectors I see this as a general plus this is our baseline I'm going to show you the same data now but instead of absolute numbers relative numbers again that little bump in the middle that's a doubling here's the eurozone in the time that America had a doubling the Europeans had a tripling their financial crisis hit harder it lasted longer several European countries Italy most notably have yet to recover to where they were in 2006 and remember the Italian demography no young people consumption led growth in places like Italy is now statistically impossible they probably will never recover here's Greece seven fold increase in seven years so far they've suffered something far worse than what we went through in the Great Depression they're down 45% they probably have another 15% to go here's Brazil this is what a lost decade looks like assuming you get the politics right now you don't have to put up your name your hands you know who you are do you like Game of Thrones nine oh two one oh the impeachment hearings the brexit debates Maury Povich no drama drama drama drama drama drama you have God to look into Brazilian politics oh my god recently they had a presidential election the final two candidates one dude was campaigning from prison where he had been convicted of corruption not indicted convicted loved it the guy who went on to beat him at his last big public rally live on public television said that you know the real problem with those Nazis they're just too soft on their domestic opponents let's go ahead and pencil in a second Lost Decade for Brazil the purple is India and the black is Turkey two countries who have already elected ethno nationalist leaders to multiple terms in landslide victories and these leaders think nothing of using state resources to spawn race riots in their own country when they feel they need a bump in the polls the difference between the two India purple has yet to begin their credit adjustment just imagine the catastrophe that's just around the corner Turkey has started they started about nine months ago what else happened shortly thereafter they invaded their neighbor it's a distraction play and then here is the People's Republic of China let me bring that down you know yeah China is now the most over credited country in human history in both absolute and relative terms this is Enron and nation-state form every country every company that has ever followed a finance driven model like this has eventually collapsed the question is how hard and since the Chinese have now pushed it further than anyone there's gonna be a show folks by the way that little hook at the top that's what the Chinese call it tightening if there's a financial aspect to figuring out the solution to the climate crisis there's only one country that has any hope of making it happen because there's only one country that's not gonna have a complete financial meltdown over the course of the next decade it has to be developed here it has to be operationalized here we're the only ones with the consumption base and the industrial base were the only ones I don't have the stability there are a thousand things about this administration and the three preceding it that I hate but it still has to be here and it's not gonna happen because of government policy because America just isn't good at that our geography is so good that we've never really had to have a functional government we don't even build our first road until 75 years in we make policy at the local on the state level at the corporate level so not to put too fine a point on it but this is your job you have to invest in technologies that honestly aren't yet operationalized that's the only way this ends well otherwise we're gonna kind of skid right by two degrees we're gonna skid right by five degrees and because the United States is the little country in the world that'll probably suffer the least from catastrophic global warming these new technologies have to make economic sense and they have to be cheap enough that they can be applied around the world in places that are destitute it's a tall order but we do at least have the base components to get started here okay so that's the that's the best-case scenario let's talk about the worst this is how Americans see themselves the pioneer era the idea that you could load up the kids Conestoga than West and in less than six months be exporting grain down the greater Mississippi system for hard currency on the global markets it was the greatest economic and cultural experience in human history and for us at last of a hundred and fifty years this is the source of our can-do attitude of our just ridiculous optimism but we're all old enough to know that that's not how the world always works sometimes the world reaches out and punches you in the face and when that happens Americans overreact it doesn't fit with our national myth it doesn't fit with our mindset we're convinced that things can get better should get better are ordained by God to get better every single day and so when they don't we think that the covenant with God has been broken and we overreact and if you're looking for someone to blame for this I blame Canada because back during the War of 1812 they burned down our Capitol which is like the ultimate dick move and it started us down this path of supreme arrogance followed by panic tree creation but that is also the strength of the American system every time we overreact every time we think it really is over we fight against the dying of the light and we reinvent ourselves Sputnik is my personal favor it was a freaking beeping aluminum grapefruit we were ahead in electronics we were ahead in metallurgy we were ahead in rocketry we just hadn't thrown something up there because we wanted to make sure it would work so Sputnik beat us by 90 days by the time we launched Sputnik had already fallen on the sky but our first satellite Vanguard 1 is still up there yet we were convinced we had lost the Cold War so we launched revolutions in manufacturing and our educational system that we coasted on for 40 years 9/11 tragedy by any measure 3,000 dead as a side effect of our reaction to the attacks we put the sharp end of American power on either side of every major trade and energy artery on the planet arteries we don't use pros and cons pros the Americans are capable of radical overhaul and change in a short period of time without damaging their economic and cultural structure we're the only country in the world that can do that that's why I have hope that we're gonna fix this figure it out cons it's been 20 years since we were last spooked we are due and this time we have no vested interest in the wider world stability we don't care what happens the next day okay if you're interested in a doorstop or maybe a coaster accidental superpower is it house how it all started how we got to where we are the international crises that Americans are most likely to notice absent superpower picks up with the shale revolution plays it forward shows how its remaking the American industrial experience and the wars that will erupt as a result of the American absence disunited is the new guy he comes out in March but you are the second audience to get copies will have them at the back of a room and disunited discusses the countries of the future and they're probably not the list that you're thinking of I don't need you guys to buy them we have some here for you I certainly don't need you to read them but if you could all go into Amazon and review them I am not kidding I need that you guys have been great you even laughed at the pot jokes sometimes that one falls flat so thank you very much

Channel: wastemanagement

Views: 157,584

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Keywords: Waste Management, WM, Sustainability, Sustainability Forum, Green, CEO, TED Talk, Peter Zeihan

Id: jT6HFCAFDgU

Length: 44min 14sec (2654 seconds)

Published: Thu Feb 06 2020