Peter Zeihan
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Channel: IFTV
Views: 290,634
Rating: 4.7735653 out of 5
Keywords: IdeaFestival, Peter Zeihan, International Relat, geopolitics, finance, economics, diplomacy, Futurist (Profession), business
Id: MIdUSqsz0Io
Channel Id: undefined
Length: 58min 19sec (3499 seconds)
Published: Mon Nov 24 2014
Please note that this website is currently a work in progress! Lots of interesting data and statistics to come.
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at 50:13 you can see what he thinks will happen next and a lot he was wright about.
Here is a more recent presentation: A World That Will Fragment
Is the US river system still that big a deal? Obviously anything that can fit a cargo ship is but I remember researching the costs of river transport vs. train transport a while back and found river transport is only cost effective when it comes to very straight rivers with a direct path to it's destination.
He does not speak about one major problem the world is facing now ( only watched the most recent presentation linked here) The global water crisis. It looks like that will only strengthen North Americas position to greater extent than what he proposes. However, while he constantly talks about how Europe is partially fucked, the water shortage will probably not affect Europe to the extant it will the rest of the world ( excluding North America)
I do think that given time, the refugee problem will only become bigger for Europe, and that we will see an increasingly isolationist approach form the west of the world ( similar to what he proposes for the US) Only problem is, as stated in the video, that central Europe does not have the US premises for economically independence
That was a very fun, easily digestible but still info-packed presentation. Thank you for posting!
Wow, this dude is super interesting. What he says is really interesting. But even just the entertainment value alone in the video is great! He is a superstar on stage.
This is incredibly interesting. Thank you for bringing it to my attention!
I feel he is making one serious error. He claims the US market is incredibly insulated, largely because the US trade exports are roughly the same volume (a little bit less) than trade imports. See for example this except about his views on American prosperity. He talks about trade at 6:35ish.
While it is true that the American economy appears to be self-sustaining, the raw trade numbers miss some key insights.
First, he shows trade as a percentage of GDP, not raw volume. Of course Germany has a larger volume of trade as a percentage of GDP than the US, Germany is more comparable to a single (large) US state than the US in its entirety. Germany has to trade for food, fuel, etc.
Second, the raw trade numbers as a percentage of GDP miss the type of goods traded. The main US exports are machines, engines, pumps, electronics equipment, aircraft, spacecraft, vehicles, medical equipment, etc. The main US imports are machines, computers, telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, phones, televisions, etc.
When was the last time you bought an American made television? Or an American made (not designed, made) cell phone? Or an American camera (hint: canon, nikon, and sony are all Japanese companies)? If you are an electrical engineer designing a new product, how many small components (resistors, LEDs, ICs, etc) are foreign made?
The US is far more interconnected than Peter Zeihan leads us to believe. I'd love to see the chart shown at 6:35 of the video I posted compared to the exact same plot but with absolute values of trade in some currency rather than as percentage of GDP.
Why would he say that France is the "Intentional Superpower"? (check A world that will fragment presentation)