12 Predictions on the Future of Music

streaming hey everybody we have a fun topic today this topic is about predictions i love predictions especially when i'm not making them i'm gonna actually react to uh some predictions that ted joya who's a great writer i follow him on twitter but he writes for the new york times and uh he's an author written a lot about jazz um but he has he had a thing that my friend pat sent to me this morning about 12 predictions for the future of music we're going to talk about them and see kind of what uh i'll give you my opinion on each one i i glanced over them and i i've been thinking about this a little bit today and we'll discuss it and get your opinions too i'd love to see the comments on this is really fascinating i love predictions right uh by the way bobby huff how are you bobby good to see you um we have a discount going on through halloween so through next week it's our annual sale the discount code is rb 1031. uh 60 off my biato book bundle it's a 700 page pdf you want to learn about music theory improvisation know what key you're playing in uh music theory for songwriters it's all in my beyo book and 40 off my beato ear training course if you want to learn how to figure out songs by listening to them and going like oh yeah i know that what that is i know what that is and then you just play along with them like you see me do on my uh my videos that i do in the top 10 spotify countdowns or itunes apple music countdowns things like that that's how you do it you do it through ear training okay so let's talk about this let's read down some of these you can follow ted on twitter at um g-i-o-i-a is how you spell his last name uh okay number one record labels will gradually lose the ability and desire to develop new artists okay so and i'll read you his rationale he says there's there um there simply won't be enough profit in young talent to justify the large required investments but labels won't disappear instead their focus will increasingly will they will focus increasingly on their old catalog and archive materials well this is something that is definitely already begun if you think about the bob dylan deals the paul simon deals neil young all the people are selling they're publishing these massive publishing deals and um one of the things about this though that is really i don't think is that much of an issue and this is going to come up with on a couple of these things it doesn't cost as much money to make records as it did that's one of the one of the great things if you watch uh any of the young artists that are making you know the billy eilish's or whoever that make make their records at home you don't need to go into two thousand dollar day studio when i was in a band back in 1999 making a record it was two thousand to twenty five hundred dollars a day and a record would typically take four months well you don't have those kind of costs now essentially you need um a digital audio workstation like a keyboard controller and um you can use software after that a microphone that'll plug into i have an apollo x4 right here it's a universal audio interface it has digital model preamps compressors any kind of plug-ins you want are available so records cost a lot less money to make so so this the idea of um there simply won't be enough profit in young talent to justify large required investments i think this is something a trend that's in the movie industry too right you see all these blockbusters they take a bunch of stars or potential stars in these uh uh you know justice justice league movies things like that and they make the sequels to them the the record the movie industry they don't want to invest large amounts of money in just videos or uh movies with sing one particular star like they used to do that right so that's been happening for a while i don't think that's that big of a deal but it's definitely happening and it's been happening for years okay so that's that's uh that's totally that's completely true number two more artists will get their big break from web platforms tick tock youtube peloton band camp of than from record labels that said even these platforms are less than ideal ways to introduce new artists to curious listeners so i wouldn't be surprised if a whole new platform emerges during the next decade interface that makes it fun and exciting for music fans to hear new music and he talks about fortnite for example is it could be a way to that people could um or through gaming perfect example is guitar hero you guys remember guitar hero that's a game that that people used to play and billy do people still play guitar hero yeah there's people that still stream themselves playing it okay so people still stream uh guitar hero did not know that and i have friends that are great guitar players like les hall that you've seen on my channel unless is an amazing guitar hero player player and um can i see and i think that really introduced a lot of people to classic rock songs a lot of people a lot of people classic rock songs and frankly you know 90s and early 2000s rock songs that were on guitar hero uh so yes that's uh that's something that's been happening and i agree i agree that will happen more i did not know that things like peloton that there's there's music that go along with the the biking somebody put a question mark on there peloton um i didn't know that either uh okay number three a particular phenomenon will emerge listeners will have favorite news songs but not know or care about the name of the artist you got to hear this great new song on my workout playlist in an art odd way our discovery process will turn to the medieval model circle circa uh a thousand ad when compositions could achieve enormous popularity even if people who created this music remain largely anonymous well i'll give you an example of this if i say i'm gonna see it come up in the chat but if i say how many of you know whiter shade of pale that song that's the biggest song in the uk it's the most played song ever in the uk whiter shade of pale who is the artist well i know some of you are going to know but most people no whiter shade of pale but they have no idea who the group is that did it and there's many many oldies that that especially one hit wonders that somebody said the moody blues william and that is not correct uh michelle says she she does green arrow bach that's right that's pretty good that is that's funny um so some people know it's pro co-harem that's right i have a very funny story about that that i will tell when i do my breakdown of that song i've got a very very funny story about that about that song related to one of my videos you guys will not believe this um i don't mean to tease it like that but um so that is that is a you know look that my brother called me and he said hey i sent you this video i'm trying to find out the music to this thing do you know what it is and i listened to it and i didn't recognize it wasn't a song and i said no he says how can i find out what this is because i had talking over it and i said i have no idea how you could find it out where did you hear it uh you know well two weeks later yesterday he calls me up he said i found out what where that song was from it was from a movie trailer that he had seen he recognized it from some trailer okay so uh it wasn't a sign but this stuff goes on today but uh um as people find things on playlists and i'm going to talk about this i would listen to i listen to playlists today and i do pretty much every day when i drive my girls to school we listen to playlists um uh next one number five dead musicians will start showing up everywhere via holograms biopics deep fake vocals and other technology driven interfaces these resurrected performers will capture an increasing share of industry revenue and put the squeeze on living artists this will eventually happen when with dead movie stars and other celebrities too but deceased musicians will lead the trend because it's simpler and cheaper to fake an audio than for example a commercial film okay i don't know about this i mean i know that things like this uh uh i've seen these deep fake videos and things like that i don't know about holograms billy you know anything about holograms yeah like it was the tupac one they were theorizing of doing one with frank's app but are they doing a frank's hyper hologram i have no idea do you remember i don't know about holograms guys i have to say i'm not sure about that how how logical this is if this is uh if this is something that is possible to do um but jimi hendrix is a holograin hologram ebert says i could i could see that uh mike says abba isn't even aren't dead yet that's right they are not i was a great band um so this is kind of an interesting interesting take on that i don't know about that so maybe that's the case that's an interesting thought okay number seven exciting new music trends will continue to emerge but increasingly they will arrive from outside major anglo-american urban centers that previously determined what songs people heard he's talking about k-pop that's one of the things and he says a power shift away from la new york and london so get ready for apop from africa ipod from india or indonesia and a whole host of competing sounds from latin america china eastern europe um okay so well that is that is already happening now how easy is this to happen well the industry the k-pop industry is something that's been built over time this is not something that just emerged randomly this this is really you know these these these groups are meticulously put together um uh k-pop has been around forever i'm not sure that it's how easy it is for these things to to just emerge out of nowhere without some type of massive backing or movement behind it uh if you think about the what's the thing squid game billy is that the game squid game is the biggest netflix thing ever i guess and squid game is from south korea so obviously it's happening in in movies right now where it's not even the language my daughter laila was watching squid game like the first episode what is this and uh i said you can't watch this i looked looked up what it was you can't watch this lately turn that off so uh so yeah that that uh i'm not sure i don't know about that that's um i don't think it's going to be quite as easy as that obviously there's you see a lot of latin music in uh or spanish-based music that's in the these spotify playlists that i've done and especially not just in the top 10 viral but what um what have we had him in the global top 50 spotify playlist many many latin songs that are on there and then we had one portuguese song that had a a title that i i don't remember but everybody said it was something that was bad that i said in uh in portuguese uh but i pronounced it poorly anyways so uh we'll see about that i'm not sure about that um number eight meanwhile in the u.s and the rest of english-speaking world the biggest deals of music will be acquisitions of old songs especially publishing right the legacy cash flows enjoyed by publishers would make this the last safe haven in the music business well that of course is happening as i talked about earlier uh companies that um like hypnosis i think is the one one of them um universal music group um there's a lot of these big publishing companies who are making massive deals with with these heritage artists or legacy artists whatever whatever you want to call them where they're selling their publishing for for enormous amounts of money bob dylan 400 million dollars uh with the idea that um um that this is you know that there's going to be value in this for years to come my old college roommate doug sandberg is on here hey doug doug says definitely layla should not watch a squid game ari aston was told no okay there you go all right so doug says don't watch don't watch that um okay yes it's definitely the case that these uh it appears like these catalogs are worth a lot of money um i made this video uh about jimi hendrix disappearing that was the thumbnail but it was about the popularity of artists comparing one to the other on spotify playlist by the monthly listeners and that that gives you an active idea as to how many people are actively listening on spotify which is a you know huge huge platform um and queen and the video had 39 million monthly listeners versus 24 million by the beatles 21 million by the stones 15 million by zeppelin um so queen was a far bigger um if you think about that that that goes right to streams and to money billions of of plays so that that makes queens catalog extremely valuable extremely valuable so uh so that's a pretty safe bet at this point when these things were going on i didn't know if they were uh you know you know like are these things are these things really worth that kind of money hard to say but we'll we'll we'll look at it um we'll we'll we'll find um we'll find out here in the future by the way i'll i want to announce again here uh that i've got my annual halloween sale this is a big sale that we do every year discount code is rb1031 this is how i finance my channel how i go and do things it's you know uh my through my biato book bundle 700 page pdf uh 60 off on that with the discount code rb 1031 and then uh for my biato ear training course rb 1031 40 off that you want to support the channel want to improve yourself as a musician this is how you do it i make educational products you know i do sell merch on my store uh and if you guys are not musicians you can always donate to the channel there's a link in the description there you can make a one-time donation or you can become a member of the biato club and uh and donate each month i also have a guitar course quick lessons pro that's available on my website as well so uh just go to rickbiatta.com okay so next one here is nine the official industry figures will show the music business is growing but these numbers will be highly misleading a huge portion of music profits will actually go to tech companies apple google etc who have no interest in reinvesting the cash into the music ecosystem for example spotify will take cash flow generated by music and use it to acquire rights to podcasts etc and in general the music culture will be starved for funds because it now must pay the bills for other businesses uh it says that he talks about spotify's biggest dream is to get into video and compete with netflix and youtube using songs to pay for the cost of of achieving this okay so um once again i kind of go back to what i was talking about it doesn't cost a lot to produce music this is the uh this is really the the the thing that i don't necessarily agree with ted on this now because um it doesn't cost a lot to create the music it does cost a lot to promote it but it doesn't cost what it did and people can promote it through social media really for very little um i have a following here of you know 2.6 million something like that right and then on instagram 400 plus thousand people that i can promote uh you know i could theoretically promote my spotify playlists that i don't have uh through here and and uh you know people are like rick you should promote bands through here and everything and uh you know but i mean that's that's a way to do it you could use influencers uh influence influencers of music could promote them through you know through playlisting and things like that word would cost very little money i don't think that's that necessarily that big of a deal at this point yes it costs money to promote records to and get them on playlist there's no question about it i guarantee you there has to be some type of payment going on like there was when um when back seven eight years ago when when radio was still big back then the paola that would happen would be uh i want your band to come and play our big christmas 99 x christmas thing that's going on here and obviously in exchange for that i'm not saying 99 x did this i don't know anything about this but or whoever would be star 94 you could go and play uh this thing for free in exchange for maybe more spins right maybe they put into a heavier rotation because of this um so yeah and it used to cost when when i had uh a number one song i know the label spent 500 grand something like that in promotion that's that's how much they would spend and that would cover things like putting bands and buses to go to radio stations and two around the country and do that talk to their program directors play free gigs things like that yeah used to cost a lot of money but it doesn't cost that much money anymore so i don't know about that i think that some of that um yeah i mean is spotify gonna go back in and invest in in uh in new artists and helping him create their music no but they could you know but they have playlists of new music that happen all the time that that are out there i listened to today the new jazz playlist which is new jazz releases and i listen to new indie indie rock releases so driving my girls to school and they're like what are you doing i said what do you mean like what is this music why do you keep changing it after one minute and i said if nothing interesting happens in a minute then i change it like you have one minute i i i'm sorry to say they have one minute to get my attention i mean something interesting has to happen in the first minute of a song i think that that is i think that's only fair to the listener please please make something interesting happen in the first minute and it was this was really the case on both the jazz and the indie rock playlist until i got to the um the new war on drug song that i love that's that's amazing um [Music] and i would play it now but i don't want to get demonetized but uh i'm going to make a video on that song it's beautiful but it starts right off with a hook great melody great lyrics great singing so you can do it and there are a few songs on there that uh that were really interesting right off the bat so definitely definitely the case okay number 11 record labels will increasingly pursue a bare bones low investment approach a few execs will be able to maintain lavish lifestyles even in declining music industry there won't be much cash for lower level organization most people working in the music business will be poorly paid with a few opportunities for advancement with few opportunities for advancement most people work in music business let's see most people working in the music business are poorly paid okay so this has been going on since 2005 or so so when i started as a producer back in the late 90s early 2000s i would commonly i had about 25 bands get record deals that i produce now i didn't produce their major label records a couple of them i did but most of them i did not get to produce they wouldn't trust me with these new signings the the a r person would have some producer that they had a relationship with and they would essentially go to them for the for the record so i'd go out there farm the the stuff find the people make their demos play a lot of the parts on their things come up with their arrangements and then they get signed and someone else would produce the records but you know only about four percent of these records are successful so uh so the uh at the time the head of a nr at a record label let's say columbia records or warner brothers or wherever would make about 750 grand would be their yearly salary okay whereas the interns or the lower a r people some of them might make 30 grand which is pretty much what they pay them now i think something like that bad especially when they're living in new york or l.a really bad right well they got rid of those positions they were the first ones to go because the heads of the labels are the ones that want to make all the money and that's just the case they got rid of all those people because then it just became about research it was all research driven after that uh who's the top thing on a business before tick tock before youtube everything they would go and is there a band breaking on a local radio station oh there's abandoned biloxi radio the station that's number one or there's uh shine down who i worked with on their first record they had a song that that uh a cover of simple man by leonard skinner that they did on the boston radio station when they were touring when the record was already out and it became the number one song on that radio station this cover that they just randomly did at the time one uh because the guitar player jason who was in their first record he was married to ronnie vanzant's daughter and they did the simple man cover the label ended up taking that song and stripping it onto the record under the cd re-releasing the cd with that song on it and it went it's a double platinum record now okay i'm supposed to be getting my double platinum chart anytime here uh but that was years and years and years ago so this this thing has been going on forever those people got fired a lot of those people got fired 10 years ago or so and there's very little money in there except for the people that are doing research and now they're doing research about what things blow up on tick tock or or wherever they do instagram or youtube or whatever platforms um um [Music] i have some a super chat nicholas says great book do you think rock will ever come back from the underground probably yeah yeah at some point it will a lot of guitars got sold in the last year so yes um um okay number 12 the last one here it says but the greatest stream of music execs will be to get out of the music business they will try to sell nfts to promote or promote audio books or finance biopics to sell music themed apparel or open music themed casinos and who can blame them after collapsing the economics of the record business they clearly need a new field to destroy [Laughter] ted i love the cynicism in that yeah i'm right with you completely on that um so as far as the nft thing is concerned um i've heard people talking about nfts as um as memorabilia selling things i've heard people selling talking about selling nfts uh not what non-fungible tokens is that what that that is yeah that uh selling them basically you're selling digital code of something could be a piece of artwork it could be a song could be a video but people could sell their publishing for example let's say let's say you're a band and you release a record and the way that you finances is that you give you sell 300 pieces of the publishing of the record okay and you sell it for a thousand dollars each and in that these people own a part of the publishing of the record right and then all of a sudden the thing blows up on tick-tock and then a record label wants to sign him and says well they don't own all their publishing three hundred thousand dollars went to the band to um by their nft's publishing of the song and so you're gonna need to buy them back from the people maybe there's a clause that when people buy these nfts that they're like stocks i'm just i'm just spitballing this and making this up right now and these stocks these nfts uh if if a majority of the people agree to sell them back to the label maybe they sell them for five thousand dollars a share as opposed to a thousand and you've made that percentage or you know whatever whatever it is maybe it's ten thousand dollars a share and they pay them for it in that way and they buy them back right and you get essentially like a stock dividend so that's that's a um uh that's that's a possible you know there's many many scenarios with these uh with with with these digital nfts things like that who knows what's going to happen with that i know uh that i am past the point where i'm gonna be um you know this is stuff of of my kids or billy's generation they'll be the nft generation or whatever else the these things are that um that will be the future of music publishing art and how things will be sold so i don't know i don't know these are these are really interesting things to think about here i thought some of the things are already in place that ted's talking about if you don't follow ted it's ted joya you follow him on twitter uh but this is interesting thing i'm like i said i'm not in the prediction business because uh you know who knows what's gonna happen 200 years like i made the video about the writer that said that neil young or paul simon wasn't going to be remembered in 200 years and i made the analogy that 200 years ago nobody knew who johann sebastian bach was so so you never know and he's the most recorded musician or his music is the most recorded of anybody's steve g says what about the influence of from asia music you should you should interview marty friedman from megadeth about it you know marty and i have talked about doing a video on this and uh about japanese pop music and we are gonna do a video on it but it's hard to uh make a video with marty with the time difference between here and japan so i will do it uh we we have been brainstorming about it and we are going to do that together so uh so that's that's a great suggestion marty's an old old friend of mine and um and he sent me a bunch of music that he thought would be interesting to talk about so we're gonna do that and a lot of people have seen there's been a lot of interest in that anyways that's it for today remember the sale halloween sale rb1031 60 off my beyo book um youtube transcription instagram transcription bundle 700 page pdf or 40 off my biato ear training you want to learn how to pick off songs like i do off records off spotify wherever off records listen to me old guy here um that's how you do it you learn intervals you learn to recognize chords you learn to recognize chord progressions and chord movement and you can pick them off learn melodies things like that you can always support the channel through the donation 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Channel: Rick Beato

Views: 212,675

Keywords: everything music, Beato Ear Training, Beato Book, Quick Lessons Course, Music, Musicians, Music Theory, ear training, Rick Beato, music education, Music College, Guitar, piano, Future, Twitter, Predictions, Record Labels, Holograms, Live Music, Music Streaming, Apple Music, Spotify, Music News, Rock Music, Streaming Music, TikTok, NFT, NFT's, Future of Music, Pop Music, Videogame Music, Squid Game, Kpop, Jpop, Soundcloud, Artists, Recording Music

Id: khEYX1e7k2Y

Length: 30min 39sec (1839 seconds)

Published: Fri Oct 22 2021