【字幕】薩克斯教授（Jeffrey Sachs）：美國經濟制裁中國想達到什麼目的？中美關係下一步該怎麼走？香港可發揮什麼作用？ 《大師訪談錄》（2024-01-11）

most members of Congress uh are anti-chinese uh in their sentiment most are rather ignorant I would say of China and Global realities but uh whether ignorant or not they have some say uh and so the anti-china sentiment is quite strong we're going into an election year which is always uh further uh uh an occasion of exaggeration fear-mongering and so forth so this could even increase the tensions the tensions over Taiwan are very very [Music] high [Music] I [Music] there are two uh motivations uh of well I would say maybe three motivations of the US policies and I don't agree with them but the three motivations are first to try to protect American industry because uh America lost a lot of its industry to competition from China and from other countries in the last 30 years and it believes that protectionism is the way to build the industry once again so that's one motivation a second motivation is deliberately to try to slow China's economic progress uh this is sometimes called containment and it's a part of the US policy I even more strongly disagree with that because I don't think it's the business of any country to try to hurt the economy of another country even a competitor but the United States is overtly trying to hurt uh China's economy and I really uh OB to that the third motivation is military uh the claim that the US is taking steps to protect its military technology uh as part of competition with China not to hurt the overall Chinese economy I think that this argument is also greatly uh overblown because while countries will have their military secrets and will aim to keep military technology uh secret the United States is pursuing a very uh crude approach to this uh labeling so many things military on the idea that maybe it could have a military application even when the overwhelming uses are civilian so if this were really the consideration I think the US and China would negotiate bilaterally in specific detail over specific issues so what are the implications and Prospects of this well first it is possible though not likely that the United States would reverse some of the actions that it's taken that is the course that I favor because the US has imposed these steps unilaterally not as part of any kind of negotiation with China not under the rules of the World Trade Organization but simply unilaterally I've objected each time but uh my objection doesn't count other than uh in the public advocacy uh the uh politics in Washington have remained quite anti-china in this regard so one possibility though is that as the US and China resume a strategic dialogue which theyve promised to do including highlevel economic dialogue led by the US Treasury and the Chinese officials in charge of the economy maybe they would work out better arrangements and the US would remove some of its unilateral policies I very much hope that's the case if not China faces a a problem without question which is that China's growth of exports to the US market has stopped in fact this year China's exports to the US are lower than in 2022 comparing month versus month 12 months ago so we can see that the US actions are already having an effect and this is part of the reason why China's growth has slowed this year China's slower growth this year is often attributed to the financial problems in the real estate sector or specific uh within China problems but definitely a factor in the Slowdown is the US trade policy so my own recommendation for China in response to this is to promote its exports in other markets so if the US is closing exports to Chinese uh Goods I would like to see China promote its very uh effective lowcost high quality exports to the emerging economies and China's main instrument for doing that it seems to me is the belt and Road initiative which is a initiative that I strongly support it is that China lends money to other countries to buy modernized infrastructure uh to build the fast rail or the 5G or the renewable energy grid that those countries need and by providing lowcost long-term financing China is making a big contribution to the development say of the Assan countries or East Africa or Latin America so next month China has the 10th Bel and Road uh Summit it's the 10th anniversary of this brri because was launched in 2013 I would like to see China announce an expanded Bel and Road initiative I think that would be good for China's exports good for China's economy and good for the partner countries so if the US won't accept Chinese exports most of the world needs them because most of the world still needs fast rail Renewable Energy Systems 5G and other core infrastructure and China's the lowcost highquality producer of that infrastructure and the brri is design designed precisely to finance that kind of infrastructure so this is an approach that I would Advocate probably a couple dozen yeah yeah many many trips many visits I came around 1970 1981 I think was the first trip uh and uh this was a trip also to the mainland and to Hong Kong and it was very very thrilling and you know as a I think Milton fredman may have said it uh but I have felt it definitely which is as an economist if you don't like if you don't love Hong Kong you don't love economics you know so this is kind of home of world market economy so it's always been amazing to be in this uh incredibly exciting F in and vibrant Place well I think we still have not seen the uh playing out of uh this uh story yet because the tensions between the US and China remain very high uh the US politics are uh not in a good shape because uh most members of Congress uh are anti-chinese uh in their sentiment most are rather ignorant I would say of China and Global realities but uh whether ignorant or not they have some say uh and so the anti-china sentiment is quite strong we're going into an election year which is always uh further uh uh an occasion of exaggeration fear-mongering and so forth so this could even increase the tensions the tensions over Taiwan are very very high and the bricks uh which expanded by six more countries a few weeks ago uh and therefore constitute a very very important economic group uh roughly 37% of world output measured at International prices have uh determined to create a non-dollar payments mechanism among the brics countries so the brics countries are determined to create a way to engage in international trade that uh skirts the International banking system all of this will affect Hong Kong as a financial center if we go further and further down that road of a divided World Financial system or a real cold war I'm hoping we will not continue in this very harmful and dangerous Direction but if we were to and I don't think it's impossible I think the consequences would not be good for anybody including Hong Kong because Hong Kong's role is as a major Global Center of Finance not as a center of Finance for one block or another block but as a major Global center for the whole world and Hong Kong definitely would like a United world that's trading together uh that is engaged in finance together uh that is the best for Hong Kong and um I that in my view is the best for the world too I also know that uh we have a nation state system in a world where we need Global governance this is a problem because it means that our International institutions and the one that I work at and for the United Nations is too weak uh we don't have the kind of global governance to enforce a treaty uh or to ensure that countries don't free ride or to stop Wars and so on so I'm very much aware of that

Channel: 灼見名家 Master Insight

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Id: f5AT--ubDQE

Length: 12min 50sec (770 seconds)

Published: Thu Jan 11 2024