WSF 2023 - interview with Garry Kasparov

Gary casprov it's great to have you here at the Warsaw security Forum now you are the the Chess Master tell me what is Vladimir Putin's next move I don't feel comfortable comparing the games Vladimir Putin has been playing with my beloved game of chess uh one is you know it's it's I always feel I have to defend the Integrity of my game uh and also dictators don't play chess they play pocker because chess is a game where we have all information available 100% you don't know about the plans of your opponent but you know exactly what kind of resources he or she can use to hurt you dictators prefer cards pocker because they can Bluff they can win with a weak Hand by raising the stakes by bluffing and that's what Putin has been doing all the time every time having a weak hand he bluffed Rose uh the the put the stakes up and uh the opposition always folded the cards in terms of having a weak hand I think it's been disappointing frankly for those um in the G7 who had hoped that their economic sanctions would really begin to bite and I'm speaking specifically about those sanctions on oil and what we understand today is through various nry means as well as higher oil prices he's actually not taken as big of a hit as they had hoped look you know it's they don't have to complain they don't have to look at Putin they have to look in the mirror it's the sanctions cannot work because we live in a in in a free world with with with With Private Business yes you can cut German export to Russia 10 times that means that most likely it will grow 10 times to Kazakhstan so it's the how can you how can you make Putin suffer yes you can probably reduce his profit but suffer in the world where the free where the West refuses to recognize the fact that we're at War Vladimir Putin's at war was Data NATO pretends that oh we helping Ukraine so I'm not sure that ambassadors have been recalled we're still playing the game as if nothing happened again we play chess he plays poker yeah so and uh uh um expecting him just to to lose the war economically no yes his GDP is small compared to Nato but he spends quarter of the GDP to war how much do we spend yeah so also the weapons Ukraine needs to win the war they don't have to be manufactured they exist and they they stay in American Storage tens of of of greal drawns hundreds of attackers and thousands of planes so it's about political will let them say publicly Ukraine must win and then when you declare the goal the strategy you can supply it with with with various tactical moves and you definitely can find ways of of making Putin's uh profits reduced dramatically yeah this if if if the oil is being brought by tankers how about imposing some taxes for instance in Denmark in the channel so you say okay we have a special rules for Russians hundreds of billions of Russian money Sovereign funds sitting in in in in in in now Frozen okay if you cannot confiscate them maybe you have to put an escrow account uh freeze them and also issue bonds for that start thinking about it but it's again it's about making sure Ukraine must win Putin will lose most likely will lead to the collapse of his regime and certain certain complications that unfortunately uh many in the Free World especially in Washington are trying to avoid at any cost yes political ramifications as well and and you mentioned that political will that seems to be dwindling exactly it's being Statesman it's not about it's not about being reactive the war cannot be won by incremental moves it's it's about bold decisions well some would say that $75 billion is not an incremental move and that's the cost at this point5 billion of what to the United States of taxpayer money that has gone no that's not taxpayers money you you can't you know I I don't know the exact percentage but probably line share of that is is aluminium is steel it's it's metal it's it was sitting in in in in the storage so the choic is either at one day you pay locket Martin to to dismantle it or you send it to to to to Ukraine so that's why the real amount of money is of cash for those who say oh we have to spend it to Hawaii no no no this is it's real amount is realtively small and also Ukraine depleted half of the Russian war war war potential it's amazing this is the the main enemy of NATO for decades now has been uh has been struggling in Ukraine and we're counting penis there's a question of course about when we talk about the sanctions we talk about oil who's buying that oil and we know who's buying it it's everyone outside the Western World and we're talking about the global South we're talking about those in the Gulf Arab countries can you stop them buying this look again it's it's that's that's Russ you're saying we shouldn't even try no no no but Russia is not a PRI again it says it's not that we were at war with Russia it's not that we we we we blocked no it's no we imposed some sanctions so again secondary sanctions so are we serious about imposing secondary sanctions following those who are violating the rules how come that Putin have all the chips you find chips uh on on on on on Russian missiles that that coming from the from the Free World even from Bal countries you can still buy Coca-Cola in Moscow made in Denmark and Netherlands in in in even in in United United Kingdom again it's it's more expensive yes obviously you have to pay more but somehow all the goods they find a way into Russia because sanctions are not it's not not the same as as as declaring let's say state of emergency and again being serious so far I don't think that the Free World demonstrated that they're serious saying we stay with Ukraine as long as it takes it's you it's blurry statements walk me through how you see the state of play in Russia and of course it's difficult to know other than the reports that we get and the people that we speak to the IMF is projecting that they're going to have growth of 1.4% this year that it could be 1.3% even in 2024 as well that's still growth yes I mean it's Financial data it's probably not trustworthy because you have War economy so that's why it's the with all this war production you know that is being boosted so you probably have this is the numbers know GDP numbers going up whether it it it it uh uh still you know helps to sustain Financial stability I doubt very much that I'm not an expert so I know that Russia has a huge debt to pay so this is but Putin has resources to go on for a year maybe for two yeah so and he's certainly getting investment from China even in a time when China's hurting yeah it's it's relations between cpin and Putin there are more complicated than people think it's not about allies it's about subordination and clearly CDP looks at Putin yeah as as a junior part and possibly possibly uh a prey because let's not forget you know sidin is not in a good Chin's econom is not in good shape cine badly needs geopolitical Triumph Everybody Talks about Taiwan and that's natural Target but Taiwan it's the it's an island armed to tease and also you don't know I don't know sidin doesn't know whether American aircraft Caris will defend it but cpin also has an opportunity in the North China has huge territorial claims to Russia it's nearly 1.5 million square kilometers that's there more ethnic Chinese in Siberia than there are Russians now legally it's in this 19th century Russian Empire using Chinese weakness took this land it's from vadas took to Bal how many EIC Chinese leaving there we don't know Russia the the balance demogra demographics uh balance is in Chinese favor they have many Bachelors Russia huge huge disbalance that was always the gamble wasn't it that was always the gamble because when I interviewed Putin in October of 2021 we were Russia energy week and we were talking about the prospect of one day the Chinese could just walk up that Siberian Pipeline and take it all back and it was interesting because he hedged on that one he wanted at that time October 2021 to continue to talk about his dear friend in Beijing but as you mentioned the question was always do you want to be the prey slly of China or do you want to turn west and he made his choice leaders you know think in centuries and let's not forget vad called on on Chinese Maps it's already first time since 1860 Chinese customers operating independently stock and following what you said how many Chinese people already there and again gender dis Balan which is getting worse because so many people have been mobilized from from regions and it made made it worse on Russian side you have huge huge uh surplus of women on one side and Bachelors on other side plus Chinese economy and official claims they're already on Chinese Maps it's 1.5 million square kilometers so San's interest probably help Putin to continue the war let's Russia is getting weaker and the West is preoccupied everybody thinks he's attacking Taiwan but maybe he looks North it's it's much more lucrative piece of real estate you know near vladas or Bal than rookie Island you talked about poker and and he's already made several Bluffs President Putin one of them of course was this idea that he was going to use tactical nuclear weapons we haven't seen that said it well it was discussed yeah but that's discussed by by the other side he never said anything about he they some of these but he never ruled it out yeah that's that's that's classical Bluff that's what I'm saying why why why to rule it out it's correct the problem the problem is you know this this is this is what is being done by Americans we will never use you know boots on the ground yeah we will never it's Obama American Administration one after another always you know just cut the options no we'll never do that yeah we know you will never do that but can you shut up please just you know just don't don't say it you know open or created options they weren't going to take like red lines in Syria is a good pocker player you know he knows that if if your opponent is worried about tactical nukes and and by the way I believe that the nukes options are not real this is it's it's we can spend hours debating it from what I know but it's it's psychology it's about you know geopolitics and it's about also the Dynamics within Russia it's not going to happen but big big gift to Putin they they keep talking about it and so then what's his next Bluff in your mind what's the next thing the boogeyman that he can hold over the heads of the he doesn't have to Bluff now I mean this is very clear he wants to win the war he believes he's winning War of Attrition I follow the the the Russian social media Russian public I mean if it's a war of attrition what is the victory I mean it is a middling Victory UK Ukraine is losing Manpower Ukraine doesn't have I mean I'm really pissed off here some of people here saying oh the war can go forever how can you say that you know it's Ukrainian blood you know so how the politicians from you know uh European countries or America can talk about you know the endless war it cannot be endless Ukraine doesn't have Chinese number of of of of of men and women so they they I I'm not sure I don't know whether they're on the stretch or not but it's it's it's at least aoral because they pay in blood for our indecisiveness for for our incremental supply of weapons and uh uh and Putin believes that you know uncertainty helps him by the way using chess analogies uncertainty always helps dictators because strength of of democracy is strategy continuity something happens we know they have a plan dictators are much better with tactics because they don't care about Parliament public opinion so just boom and uncertainty which is brought by War it's always in his favor look Slovakia elections that's what put in maybe elections here God knows what happens in America it's you know creates opportunities for him and he's very good master of grabbing opportunities by that logic then would you say that potentially another Trump presidency would actually be good for the West simply because as you say that um optionality that comes with being unpredictable as dictators can be like President Putin would actually give some leverage to the West that perhaps they don't have today some presiden I don't believe it is going to happen but if it does it will be disaster because Trump trump will start start uh playing another pocker game with Putin and Ukraine will be one of the bargaining chips as many other things no we can't afford it we need leadership that will will not uh uh play by chance but will offer us a vision into the future and I think it will be a disaster if America American future will be decided decided in rematch between two men combined age of 160 and and to that logic is that Visionary leadership going to come from another Joe Biden presidency I don't think Joe Biden president can offers anything so it's uh and I I believe that it's time to to to consider who will Who will carry the torch of freedom and I don't think Joe Biden's hands are strong enough to to to um to carry it car it's great to have you here at the wara security Forum thanks so much for your Insight

Channel: Warsaw Security Forum

Views: 6,653

Keywords: Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego

Id: y6ZIMBA2n6Y

Length: 12min 50sec (770 seconds)

Published: Mon Oct 09 2023