Will these 10+2 regional parties survive 2024 election results

are you sure here's the 30C lesson on what Legends know never ask a bride why she's getting married don't wear a skirt on a windy day deant is not a shower don't sniff chil flee and don't forget saving is not investing Legends don't just save they invest in mutual funds mutual fund Investments are subject to Market risks read old scheme related documents carefully [Music] a lot of the discussion until now has been about how many seats will the BJP get we've been talking about that for a long time then we try to reverse the equation by asking all right maybe it's too difficult to estimate or to understand the implications of how many the BJP gets let's look at how many the Congress might get because we had also said in fact I had said that in a national interest that every 10 seats that the congress party gets above the 52 it got the last time all those even any 10 seats will mostly be at the expense of the BJP so that is one other way of looking at the equation in this entire debate and discussion we haven't talked about the so-called others because others we know that we look at the others column on the election results day not so seriously anymore since we started getting majority governments however the others really count because each one of these parties 10 parties we're going to list for you each one of these parties counts for something in their states some in more than one state but something in their states each one of these parties also have had a chief minister in the past there are two Exceptions there one exception is NCP sharat pawar's party which hasn't had a chief minister as an NCP leader but it had sharat pavar as chief minister when he was in the congress party so the to that extent NCP has had a chief minister the political force that is represented by sharat Paar and the other one of this group that doesn't have a chief minister yet is jjp that is Jan Nayak Jan party in harana that is one of the grandsons of Chri dilal again the party came in very recently it came up in 2019 it it hasn't had enough time what is it that we are saying about these 10 parties what we saying about these parties is that this election is an existential M for these parties because if they don't do well enough in this election most of these parties will be looking at a real threat of Extinction so what are these three parties there's a little trick there because it's you can actually count these as 10 parties or 12 parties and I will tell you how so the 10 parties that we are talking about is number one bjan samage party I'm listing it first because it's it's been a very important part party and has ruled India's largest state its chief minister has ruled India's largest state that is utar Pradesh multiple times once with a majority of its own a clear majority of its own from 2007 to 2012 it has always commanded a substantial chunk of votes in uttar Pradesh most importantly its vote has always been considered transferable so ban samaj party is one then we come to Telugu part Shiva shirman AAL then BRS BH rashami jdu jadal United inld Indian national loal of harana jjp I mentioned to you from harana so these are the 10 parties once again bsp TDP NCP BRS jdu JDS Shiva jjp inld and shirman AAL 10 parties why did I say these 10 can be counted as 12 as well because Shiva and NCP have now split so one section each is with the BJP in the mahui as the Coalition is called and the other section is with the congress party with the Maharashtra vikas aadii as that Coalition is called now what is happening with these parties we have to look at the data and see where they are headed so bsp has been the first victim the most important victim of the rise of the BJP under Narendra Modi in uttar Pradesh so 2014 for the first time bsp finished with zero seats in utar Pradesh but it had a vote share of 19.625 way split if it can get another chunk of votes from another vote Bank in 2014 it was unable to do so it's not as if it improved its performance going ahead 2017 Assembly Election its vote percentage was again not very different from 19.6% it came to 22.2% let's say from 20% to 22% bsp won only 19 seats out of 403 in up assembly and this is the state which they had ruled on their own strength with a full majority between 2007 and 2012 so you can see the part started stagnating at around 20% vote share then what happened in 2019 loksabha that's very instructive because 2019 loksabha bsp got into a partnership with samajwadi party so contested much fewer seats but some vote transfer took place so it won 10 seats 10 seats which is quite substantive in utar Pradesh in fact won more seats than it stronger partner then which is samajwadi party with 19.26% vote share the vote share remained about the same so the vote share remained about the same and then came a further downfall and for the first time the party suffered a very large loss of vote share so 2017 Assembly Election it had got just 19 seats but still retained its 22 plus% vote share which is its essential committed vote in 2022 election it won only one seat that is the seat of rasra very far away in Bala District omash Shankar Singh won that seat that people tell me it's almost like he could have won it independently himself only one seat was won by bsp but more importantly it's vote share fell to 12.88% so from 22% 20 22% which was its default vote share it has already fallen to about 133% this time again it's going on its own it was believed in all exit polls after the last Assembly Election had confirmed something that was building up for some time that mayavati non jatav dalit voters were shifting to the BJP that became very accelerated in 2022 and it is from that position that bsp is contesting now if it is not able to up its vote share again to about 20 22% or if it declines worse if it declines further from from 12.88% or let's say 133% you could say that as a big political force bsp will be looking at a very steep decline now BS bsp supporters explain this they said look we can we can throw our resources into this election we can fight with the BJP we can risk jail sentences we can risk the agencies coming after us for what we might get five seats seven seats 10 seats with those seats in Lok SAA we can make no difference so we'd rather conserve our resources and we'd rather conserve our resources and we'd rather conserve our resources to fight in the next up Assembly election in 2027 when the BJP will be facing double anti-incumbent that so that could be a rational but the fact is that the B bsp out of all our non Congress non BJP parties is the most important party right now looking at an existential threat in this election telhan party teshan party this time is an alliance with the BJP in in Andra Pradesh in the past TDP has been aligned with the BJP multiple times also with congress party once in telengana elections of 2018 however TDP has also been a declining force it has stayed out of power for too long its vote share is quite robust its vote share is quite robust in fact if you look at the 2014 assembly elections just in the Andra Pradesh part because that election was held for the entire state but the state was split and votes and seats were divided accordingly so in Andra Pradesh in 2014 elections TDP got 44.9% vote that's almost 45% vote 2014 Loa elections also it won 15 seats got 40.5% of the vote that tells us that TDP has had about a 40% default vote Bank in Andra Pradesh 2019 loksabha it won only three of the 25 seats in Andra Pradesh but its vote share was still about 40% yet again in 2019 assembly elections it won just 23 seats nothing it got wiped out by ysrcp yet retained its 39% plus votes so what is it telling us it's telling us that telu party has now been out of power for many years now but at the the same time it has so far been able to maintain its vote share at almost 40% however Chandrababu Naidu the leader is not getting younger and naral loesh is there as a successor so if they win this election if they're able to defeat vrcp particularly in partnership with the BJP then they have a good future that will be a Revival renewal and Rebirth of tesan party but if they fail to do so then to keep this party cohesive will become a struggle because the question is the old one how long can you maintain cohesion in a purely regional party with no ideology without the adhesive of power and that is the challenge that TDP faces now staying in the same neighborhood we come to BRS that is kcr's party it used to be TRS where T stood for Telangana and then at one point the leader got a bit delusional if I may say so and thought he could become a national leader now it's a bit of a stretch to imagine becoming a national leader with a state that that only sends a maximum of 17 MPS to Lok SAA but you know in politics everybody dreams and everybody has ambition that somehow did not work for him so let's see what's what's been happening with him if you look at 2014 loab elections 34.67281 3% of the vote 11 seats in 2014 nine seats in 2019 so far so good 2014 assembly 63 seats with about 35% of the vote again very good because the house is only 119 so 63 give him a majority 2018 he was actually on the up his vote share went up from 34% to about 47% it was a sweep and he got 88 seats in a house of 119 what's happened to him now 2023 assembly elections his vote share fell to 37.3% now the vote share hasn't fallen that much in fact this vote share is a little bit higher than what it was in 2014 but his seats in the State Assembly have fallen from 88 to 39 and that's how he lost power since he lost power his people started leaving him many of them have gone to the BJP some have gone to the congress party some defections had started even before the elections he's become very reclusive kcr's become very reclusive his daughter is in jail on the on on on the liquor liquor scam charges so his party is in real trouble right now they don't have an ally they are contesting this election and from all the data you are getting chances are that a lot of their voters have shifted to the BJP so the BJP has been growing in the state mostly at brss expense and that's why BRS is a party among all of these parties that looks particularly endangered it looks as endangered in fact I would say even more endangered than the bsp because BP has an ideology bsp has had a committed voter base and bsp has a has a direct sharp appeal to a large enough demographic in uttar Pradesh BRS no longer has it and BRS has succession issues and also cohesion issues many of the same issues also apply to jdu in Bihar although they are on the winning side right now nitish Kumar Palam as is called because he moved from one to the other all the time he's not with the BJP that gives him strength right at the same time his own party his own strength that is jdu that's been declining and every election tells us that by himself he doesn't count for that much because he does not have such a large vote Bank he fought 2014 Loa by himself got two seats with about 16% vote 2019 election he fought it in partnership with the BJP and lo and behold what happened he got 16 seats although his vote share only went to 21.8 1% what had happened was because of seat sharing a lot of the BJP vote got transferred he contested fewer seats and the strike rate was much higher so from two he went to 16 now in partnership with the bgp and then see what happened 2015 elections State elections he was in partnership with rjd and the congress party right so he's been on both sides he was in partnership with luu yadav's rjd and the congress party in what was called mahag Gat bandhan again kept his vote share at about the same about 17% but now got 71 seats 2020 however he went for the state elections again for vidhan SAA now in partnership with the BJP his vote share fell a little but not that much right just about 1500 a half% and he got only 43 seats so even in partnership with the BJP his seats and his vote share have been declining he himself has no successor there's a lot of negative bus because of the shifts he has made if he does well this time which essentially means if the BJP is again Narendra Modi is again able to transfer a lot of his votes to his candidates because he's got a lot of seats to contest in Bihar as before then his party might have a future otherwise we might see his party declining and maybe ultimately his people going to the BJP and merging there or maybe some going towards rjd as well remember biar is going to have its state election just next year in 2025 now if jdu is a party that has given India one chief minister more than once several times nitish Kumar has mostly held the chief ministership Bing short break since 20 2005 right for a long time there is JDS JDS is a smaller party in Karnataka but if jdu has given us one chief minister several times JDS has given us a prime minister that is SD dagor and a chief minister twice that is dagor son kumaras Swami it's a tiny family run party Tiny Family run party and we've talked often enough about how the G Dynasty is even bigger than the extended Gandhi Dynasty that is if we take the extended der Gandhi Dynasty including people two generations before this one and also people who've gone to the other side that is MAA Gandhi and Barun Gandhi GAA family has more than that many whove held public office if you just look at the State Assembly Karnataka State Assembly 2018 JDS got 18.4% of the vote with 37 seats 37 seats in a house of 224 however JDS is specialized in using leverage for power so with just 37 seats they went to the congress party because nobody had got a majority BJP had fallen short of majority saying you want to keep the BJP out of power I'll be chief minister I will Jo join hands with you but I will be chief minister STD kumaraswami they've got a son had done this earlier also in that case he had the smaller number but he went to the BJP which had the larger number of mlas and said look you want to form a government I will come with you but you let me be chief minister not very different from what his father had had done his father had very few MPS in fact but but in 1996 when all the other parties anti-bjp parties got together to keep the BJP out of power and set up a secular front he was chosen as the prime minister in fact he has said sometimes that he made a mistake by becoming prime minister in his autobiography which has been penned by journalist sugat shinas Raju he he tells us of an incident where he fell at the feet of JY bosu who was then the strongman CPM strongman and chief minister in West Bengal he fell at his feet he says and requested him not to make him prime minister he said I don't want to become Prime Minister I want to continue to be a long serving chief minister like you but you know what power is very tempting so he became prime minister in the process looks like his party got weakened in fact his son kumaraswami said in a walk the talk interview with me later that my father actually sir made a big mistake by becoming prime minister because we ignored our party in the state the fact is the party has been weakening in the state and every innings in power every innings in power was leveraged by out by the G family has weakened the party and that's what happened to the party after 2018 as well 20123 assembly elections just about 14% vote shares vote share is declining only 19 seats so vote share assembly seats have both been declining and that's why they've gone as partners with the B BJP now contesting only three seats on top of this they have the pral Rana crisis and he's contesting one of those three seats so of all the 10 parties that we listed here which have given us Chief ministers who may be more than Chief ministers this is the party that seems to be in the biggest threat of Extinction right now Maharashtra is our second largest state by way of contribution to the National Parliament up sends 80 MPS Maharashtra sends 48 now Maharashtra potic itics while the Congress and the BJP keep fighting they both have had very strong allies the BJP has had shipa in the past the Congress part is always had NCP what's happened as we know both Shiva and NCP have now split so for both sets of these factions that is why these become not two parties but four parties two with the congress party and two with the BJP the factions of two factions of NCP and two factions of Shiva for all all four of these this election will be make or break so any site that does poorly any faction that does poorly will either end up merging with the bigger partner or crossing over and going to the other side for example if the congress party or the Maharashtra vkas guarded do really poorly then chances might be that many of sharat paar's people will move over to the other side and say look this is the real NCP we we made a mistake by by by going with sharat Paar similarly if bjp's allies in this election do poorly whether it's shivsena shind shivsena or Ajit paar's NCP those fellows will say listen we made a big mistake by coming on this side we are better of being with the original because our lead leaders are there our Founders are there our leaders are there and our voters recognize those as the real shipa and the real NCP doesn't matter what the election commission says so either way at the end of the this election two of the four parties for two of the four four parties it will be the end of the road that's an important point isn't it and now we shift North we've looked at the Heartland we've looked at the south in detail and let's shift North so Punjab the kalal has ruled Punjab multiple times under prakash Singh badal and with his son being his Deputy he leads the party now now that party is looking at a very troubled future in fact a very dire future see what been happening to them 2014 LSA they were partners with the BJP 26% vote four seats out of 13 very good not bad at all in a state where the BJP did not do so well 2019 still partners with the BJP by this time BJP looks like it was even more unpopular in Punjab but akalal still maintained its 27% vote but got only two seats why because by this time Amad party had also grown in the state and vote was split multiple B it wasn't just split between the sad BJP combin and Congress it was sad BJP combin Congress and and aadb party so there was a three-way split they maintained their vote share in partnership with BJP but the seats came to two see however the assembly elections 2017 assembly elections they participated with the BJP in partnership with BJP got wiped out the congress party did very well they got 25% vote share the same vote share but just 15 seats why because Amad party had now come in and they got a large number of seats although they were well short of the halfway marks so Congress got power 2022 assembly elections ABAB the party swept Congress was a distant second akalal got just three seats and most importantly for the first time akal dal's vote share fell before 25 so kalid's vote share came to about 18% this election again a is contesting by itself and unless they show remarkable Improvement remarkable Improvement looks like they might also be looking at the end of the road and being reduced to some kind of a very local religious party which has its power rooted only in its control of the shirani Gurdwara prabandhak committee so once again shirani akalal if it has to have a future has to look at partners and has to look at politics Beyond a purely religious appeal that is brought basing its politics it's going to be a very big challenge unless they go back to the bjp's Embrace I always used to say that the Shiva and the Kal are the bjp's natural Partners both have split Shiva might have some future in one faction or the other because one faction with the founders has gone to the other side akalal has no such options so at the end of this election June 4 onwards they will have to make some really hard choices and and finally since we are talking about Punjab can we forget harana so in harana we have two parties I might have said one and a half party because one party only came into being just about 5 years ago that is the jjp jjp was founded by dasan Chala the great grandson of Chri dilal inld which was CH Deal's party look at its state right now inld the Party founded by Chri dilal again chief minister of harana more than once and also Deputy Prime Minister of India he represented that kind of power in National politics his party got just two Loa seats in 2014 with about 24% vote share so healthy again 2014 assembly elections in harana assembly and loka elections take this take place in the same year 19 seats so not that many seats because in harana the half a mark is 46 19 seats with 24% vote share so the vote share remained intact and then what happened in Loa elections of 2019 mean what happened to inld it got zero seat that's all right but its vote share became 1.89% that's less than 2% why because the party had split and one of the great grandsons had taken away the party's voter base that was jjp so inld the original was now left with less than 2% vote share this also got repeated in the Assembly Election subsequently where the party won one seat but got only 20 a half% vote Shar so that is a party really on the skids in this election again if you look around if you see all the data doesn't look like they can make much impact in Lok SAA in any case coming Assembly Election probably will look like the last fight of inld that is Chri dilal and oash shala's party and once again there'll be trouble for jgp as well which is the last party we are talking about in this group jjp only came into being in 2019 20 19 elections loab elections it did contest but didn't count for very much just 5% vote but even 5% vote was three times higher than the parents Vote or the great grandparents vote that is in's vote but more importantly the same year in the Assembly Election it got 10 seats with a with a vote share of about 15% vote share of about 15% remember the great grandparent inld only got 2 and a half% and and 10 seats the important thing is these 10 seats came with a great great deal of Leverage because in harana the half mark is 46 the BJP the incumbent had fallen short of the majority Mark he had his 10 seats and with those 10 seats he could have given BJP power so using that leverage he became deputy chief minister and he got more than twice as many portfolios under his belt that the number of mlas that his party had now I keep using the word Leverage in politics leveraged buyouts leveraged Acquisitions this is as good a definition of Leverage in politics as you can find anywhere I have 10 MLS without those 10 10 mlas you might have 30 plus but without my 10 mlas you can't get power and if you get power you have to give me this much so he used that however he's now broken up with the BJP and and unlikely that he will do brilliantly in Loa because loks SAA is going to be a straight fight between the BJP and the congress party coming assembly elections will again determine whether his party will survive as a political force in the state the only state where it might have some presence or or it will go into Extinction so this is our list of 10 plus two we said plus two because of those two two splits in shiv SAA and NCP this concludes our list of 10 plus two parties two because of those factions of shivsena and NCP who are looking at this election as this decisive in their history that's why this is an existential election for these 12 parties [Music] [Applause] [Music]

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Keywords: shekhar gupta, ThePrint, ThePrint news, ThePrint videos, ThePrint Hindi, Existential moment for 10+2 parties, election season, poll results, Shiromani Akali Dal, Uddhav Thackeray, JDS, INLD, JJP, BSP, Mayawati, NCP, Shiv Sena, BRS, TDP, jdu and BJP, Lok Sabha election 2024, Lok Sabha poll 2024, MVA

Id: ry3yKV-GP9U

Length: 28min 12sec (1692 seconds)

Published: Tue May 28 2024