Will Germany's car industry survive? | DW Documentary

[Music] imagine a country that takes its climate protection goals seriously that became rich on oil yet still aims to ban cars that run on fossil fuels in just six years time that country exists norwegians aren't crazy they have a plan germans have been building cars for over a hundred years do we have a plan too the demise of the combustion engine is near the world is shifting to an electrified future it's not an option anymore to say it won't happen we've crossed the line it's happening the question isn't what type of engine is better or more environmentally friendly the car industry is in the throes of unprecedented change and germany risks being left behind the world's biggest car market china is powering an electric vehicle revolution and building the cars it needs itself trying to preserve jobs come hell or high water in sectors where i can see that world markets have already moved those sectors in a new direction it's the worst mistake you can make the world has made up its mind has germany the birthplace of the automobile a proud car culture we know how to build a diesel engine ours are probably the best in the world we can also build combustion engines the question is does the world still need them is germany prepared for the future we're in bergen this was once norway's most polluted intersection denmark's place the junction of two major transport routes now the city's biggest electric vehicle charging station is located here do you feel like a pioneer do you feel quite normal quite normal yes it's much cheaper i don't have to pay that whole road don't have to go to a gas station and it's convenient in that way everyone says well it doesn't work because it's so complicated and all that no it's not it's not no will you ever go back to combustion engine car definitely no other country in the world has more electric cars per capita than norway 65 of all new cars sold here are electric or hybrid models the figure's just 7 percent in germany it's not a coincidence it's political will norway wants to be a pioneer it sees climate protection as an opportunity for its economy not a threat it's already world leader and emission-free technology for ships drivers of electric cars enjoy tax exemptions free or cheaper public parking and the use of bus lanes charging stations and parking garages are standard i meet up with christina boo her association represents the interests of norwegian electric car owners her voice counts not just in norway german politicians and industry executives have also sought her advice this clear direction is is for the consumers also a clear sign that this is this is where we're going and this is uh this is the future i'm really sick of hearing car manufacturers blaming consumers saying consumers are not ready if someone asked me if i wanted a smartphone before it was launched i wouldn't have understood even but if if someone now wanted to take the smartphone away from me i would have you know it's the same with electric mobility the norwegian case show that if price is level consumers are more than ready to go electric so don't blame us don't blame the consumers do do the job in oslo 77 of all new cars sold are electric within a year carbon dioxide emissions have dipped by nine percent norway didn't invent the battery-powered car in fact alternatives to combustion engines have been around for a long time in 1975 mercedes rolled out its first emission-free van [Music] 1976 marked the birth of volkswagen's electric gulf bmw launched its e-1 in the early 1990s we showcased our first electric cars at the 1972 olympic games in munich they accompanied the marathon run we now have 20 years of experience under our belt and i think we've mastered the technology give us five maybe 10 years then we'll be ready 27 years later and we're still not ready germany is nowhere near to reaching its 2020 climate goals which foresee a million electric vehicles on its roads next year instead we're still debating are thresholds set in stone is the diesel engine better than its tattered reputation art electric cars polluters in other ways the geneva motor show stomping ground of the tradition-conscious car industry here nothing seems out of order after all daimler is unveiling a van it's electric unfortunately it's not for sale yet and then it presents the gle 53 435 horsepower 212 grams of co2 per kilometer this all-rounder makes me feel like i can do anything anywhere anytime thank you very much thank you daddy great job thank you guys [Applause] to date most german electric vehicles have been hybrids big heavy and above all expensive prices start at 70 000 euros the premium segment has a quote higher price elasticity which is another way of saying it reaps bigger profits for managers and shareholders small affordable mass market ready german manufacturers have been slow on the uptake car nation germany is evidently in no hurry to join the revolution it's counting on tried and tested technology on slow change stefan bratzel is a seasoned expert on the auto industry he's growing increasingly concerned i think german car makers have a 50 50 chance of surviving this war of the worlds it could be that germany is simply a victim of its own success that on the whole with its auto manufacturers industry and political backing it was too comfortable to recognize the changes and draw the correct conclusions germany has yet to produce a master plan for coping with a changing automobile industry maybe because change is the opposite of what the government and car makers have bonded over some eight hundred thousand jobs are directly dependent on the auto industry many more are indirectly dependent annual turnover over 400 billion euros one reason why german politicians have long worked to avert any threat to the car industry protecting the sector from sudden disruptive change [Applause] in 2018 the german chancellor addressed an annual gathering of german industry the climate we cannot alter the climate goals that we've set for ourselves and to an extent adopted as part of european climate targets as a whole particularly for twenty thirty anything beyond those efforts threatens to drive the auto industry out of europe car makers would produce the cars they sell here somewhere else i stress that i do not want that to happen is change necessarily a threat when it comes to the auto industry the german government seems to think so we'll use all means to fight restrictions as in driving bans our goal is to avoid driving bans and shape the future of mobility in a way that includes clean combustion engines clean combustion engines a flexible concept in germany driving bands a red flag threatening to curtail open roads for free citizens the diesel emissions scandal sewed anger in germany the auto industry stalled then cheated then covered it up and then cities imposed driving restrictions waiting for compensation germany's yellow vests feel betrayed by corporations and punished by politicians automotive freedom subsidized diesel fuel commuter allowances incentives to sweeten life in the suburbs but now they say they're footing the bill for mistakes made by industry and government they're always saying no it's not like that it's not true of course they cheated and vw has to answer for that but we can't all be punished as a result this will have a huge impact on germany for years to come affecting the auto industry and its suppliers all the way down to the last mechanic germany failed to get in the driver's seat and forge a path for others to follow it may prove an existential mistake because while we germans are still arguing about past emissions the rest of the world is already on the road to a new era china the world's biggest and most important market it's still growing german car makers helped power mass motorization here and made a lot of money they command a market share of 23.2 percent in the combustion engine sector but just 0.4 percent in the electric car sector and that's a problem no one can beat germany when it comes to technology for diesel and gasoline engines it has 130 years of experience but when it comes to electric vehicles everyone is taking off from the same starting line and china is racing ahead by 2025 beijing wants about 25 percent of cars sold annually to be plug-in hybrids or battery-powered not least because the country is suffocating in smog but 25 in china equals the combined total of new cars sold in germany france and britain it's a giant piece of the pie a pie that if germany isn't careful will be divided up among others china aims to stop selling combustion engine cars in 11 years i've arranged to meet a german top manager who spent years at bmw he helped develop the i8 a small electric revolution at the time [Music] but then he turned his back on germany and came to china he took half his development team with him [Music] what opportunities did carsten breitfeld identify here that he didn't see in germany things happen in china at lightning speed it's a gigantic market with 30 million new cars sold each year there's a ton of capital and investors in china and the issue has strong government backing in china if the government says more electric cars are the goal then the decision is made to install 50 000 charging stations and by the next month they're in place so normally the follow-up question in any interview is does that mean i'm against democracy and naturally i say no i'm not but if i look at the european democratic structures then i see how we spend about a decade discussing new ideas and after a decade all that's left is 10 percent of the original idea so we need to realize that if we maintain that pace of decision making and realization we just won't be able to keep abreast of global developments las vegas the annual ces trade show spotlights high-tech innovations from around the world before his current venture cast and breitfeld helped build this car for chinese startup biden german manufacturing expertise lots of cash and unlimited government backing the ingredients china is using to power ahead on the market the m byte is a forty thousand euro electric suv with a one meter twenty screen a tablet on wheels for video conferences or online shopping to pass the time and traffic jams it's set for production late 2019 mercedes is here too with a glass prototype the mid-range combustion engine cars on the other hand can be purchased bmw also has a vision the i next electric self-driving with a shag carpet it's not for sale i'm meeting another high-profile german who jumped ship kyle thomas neumann was on the volkswagen board ceo of continental and then opel now he lives in the u.s where he's launched a startup is this really the dawn of a new era the dawn of a new era and down here we have the biggest suv that bmw has ever built isn't that emblematic of the current situation in the german car industry sure you could say that it's kind of symbolic of what's going on it certainly looks more like a dinosaur than futuristic but the dinosaurs aren't nearing extinction they're still successful money makers in the twilight of the combustion engine [Music] can success hinder progress [Music] is the german auto industry being held back by its own success i do think that's a big part of it yes it's hard to give up that success and say to some extent i have to destroy that success to create a new one now you weren't exactly in a bad position at opal to make a start why didn't you we did try in the end i would have liked to fully electrify opal because when the emission scandal hit i realized it's not enough to just adhere to the laws you need to develop a new mindset and the mindset i would have liked for opel would have enabled a full switch to electric car production by 2030. then we could have gone to lawmakers and said hey we need the framework so that this can work we both need to make sure this happens jobs will be lost but new ones will be created and electric vehicles will give rise to new business opportunities but where's this being discussed in germany or even in europe maybe we germans simply can't part with our gas guzzlers yet because they're our invention and so slick perfect machines with high precision parts that just keep getting better stronger heavier 2.5 tons german engineering genius the most complex driving machine in history [Music] an electric car doesn't need all that instead of an estimated 2000 moving parts it has just 200 simply beneath our dignity [Music] carnation germany appears comatose it's as if all the changes have nothing to do with us alternative engines driverless cars new visions of transport why can't we catch up [Music] we're a country of engineers perfection took us to the top and continuity kept us there abrupt change is exactly the opposite i have an appointment with uva kantner he chairs a government advisory panel on research and innovation and he has an explanation for what's gone wrong in germany [Music] you have to work hard to attain the status of innovation leader the danger is that once you've made it to the top and there's a reversal then you get the so-called lock-in effect the lock-in effect means i'm trapped inside and can barely see a way out apart from extremely high expenditure so in the case of the auto industry we are now at the top of our game in fossil fuel powered cars no one comes close but stepping out of that comfort zone towards other types of engines is associated with very high costs conversion costs transaction costs and that's called lock-in that's what we have here in the german auto industry and that's the challenge how should policy makers be steering developments the government has a responsibility to secure people's incomes but not their jobs no one should get left behind amid such structural change there needs to be a safety net somewhere but trying to preserve jobs in sectors where i can see that world markets have already moved those sectors in a new direction is the worst mistake you can make it can't have escaped anyone's notice that things are moving in a new direction in this sector dieselgate the emissions crisis theoretically a good time to be mapping out a transformation plan for policymakers too more of the same can't be the answer in a world undergoing radical change we're letting others call the shots why is germany like a rudderless ship the german transport minister didn't have time to answer our questions instead we speak to junior minister stephen bilger our country is closely connected to the automotive industry so we need to consider the impact that major transformations will have on jobs for us this transformation is a process of evolution not revolution and we're managing quite well but isn't it precisely because of that responsibility that we should be driving innovation ambitious climate targets we've always pursued ambitious goals at the european level which our automotive industry then has to implement but there have been times when it seemed there was little political support for the most ambitious climate goals there are without a doubt proposals within the europe-wide debate that we don't consider productive in my view the goal should not be that we decide today in 2019 what transport will look like in germany in the years 2025 2030 or 2050 a lot can develop in the coming years what if developments go in the wrong direction when the car industry does well germany does well this old adage is a cornerstone of government policy but what happens if the decades-old symbiotic relationship between government and the car industry can no longer provide answers to today's challenges and the climate crisis is one of germany's leading researchers in the field of transport if nothing changes we'll protect the german auto industry to death we are currently endangering the five six seven hundred thousand jobs that we still have because we're protecting something that has no chance of survival what plan should the german government be making to keep us as a nation of car makers competitive well policy makers have had a long-term plan please everybody drive cars cars go with the good life and even better if everyone buys german cars german technology with gasoline and diesel engines both german inventions that's what we've been pushing what's the danger if we continue this policy then we'll be overtaken because the world around us is different people and countries and above all cities elsewhere in the world have long since made the decision to phase out combustion engines and switch to battery-operated cars if we don't play along we'll lose crucial export markets and we'll be sitting on technologies and cars that no one needs anymore that's a problem and it's accelerating while germany slams on the brakes cevico in the eastern state of saxony has a long tradition of building cars vw opened a plant here in 1990. the gulf has been rolling off its assembly line for years but its days are numbered change is coming probably also because pioneer sounds better than emissions cheat volkswagen needs a new image its vehicles are responsible for two percent of global carbon dioxide emissions the world's biggest car maker wants to change that it's now taking climate goals like paris 2050 seriously and electric vehicles are the future mikhail jost helped devise the plan he's chief strategist at volkswagen a close associate of ceo habbat diese he filled a new position at bw it never had a strategist before what do you call a strategy that propagates diesel cars for decades and then suddenly says the future is electric for starters one doesn't rule out the other we've never said diesel cars have lost their relevance but in view of the challenges we all face to meet the paris targets and bring down co2 levels vw is a mass market producer really has no other choice but are we in germany reacting fast enough given the speed of developments around the world every technological transformation comes with teething problems whenever you rebuild something it takes three days before you get it to run smoothly and another three days before you get used to it well i don't get the feeling this will take three days symbolically speaking it can doubtlessly be sped up speed is what the car industry needs now it's had its foot on the brakes for too long vw's mass market electric model the id3 will be built in zvikao the company is funneling 400 million euros into the facility's conversion but the switch to electric will make engine builders exhaust fitters and fuel pump experts redundant so bw is sending them on what it calls a learning journey to prepare for the future long-term employees will have new tasks [Music] this is where the specialists are trained in a role-play room called emotion after a look back at company history trainees get a vision of the future with virtual reality [Music] an experience that everyone at this plant is slated to share based on what you know so far do you think you're in for a big change it will be a big change for everyone here vw is proud of the 17 000 orders for electric vehicles but that's just the start the company builds forty four thousand vehicles every day [Music] change is coming but what about the german auto industry and government policy can we afford to be complacent or worse yet without a plan china is building its own fleet of electric cars german engineers are helping [Music] now german car makers want change faster than the government [Music] the transport minister calls volkswagen's plan totally wrong and wants to keep an open technological mind [Music] a look at norway shows government-backed change gets results so do clearly formulated goals like what we are telling is how fast this goes yes and it is showing how fast it is so for the car industry to selling cars in norway and the future they have to be zero emissions that's where we're going and it's happening now so that's just a message we have to make it happen fast and every country will benefit from being in the forefront of this change instead of lagging behind it's the end of an era but also the beginning of something new the sooner we accept that and sees it as an opportunity the better all of this can be done if there's a will to get it done if we just sit back and wait to see what happens then we'll face major problems and i think we're already seeing the first signs of those problems today if carnation germany doesn't look to the future then others will shape its future industry and government have sat back too long more of the same is no model for the future we need to hit the road [Music] you

Channel: DW Documentary

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Keywords: Documentary, Documentaries, documentaries, DW documentary, DW documentary 2019, full documentary, documentary 2019, DW, beyond the news, electric vehicles, German auto industry, hybrid plug-ins, new technologies, Norway, Germany, Frankfurt Motor Show, IAA, german car industry, porsche, vw, mercedes, German cars

Id: hcXjVxaKzv4

Length: 28min 26sec (1706 seconds)

Published: Tue Sep 03 2019