It’s so crazy that I just happen to be in
one of the rare places in our universe where I don’t instantly asphyxiate or freeze or
vaporize or dehydrate. ... Just lucky I guess. Actually, it turns out that our very privileged
perspective on the universe from Earth’s comfortable biosphere may tell us a lot about our reality. And perhaps resolves the Fermi Paradox. It shouldn’t be surprising that we live
on a planet that can support our existence, in a universe that can produce such planets. The anthropic principle tells us that we shouldn’t
expect to find ourselves in some random corner of the multiverse - there’s an observer
bias. In upcoming episodes we’ll be exploring
this principle and its two main versions - the strong and the weak anthropic principles. The strong anthropic principle tells us that
an observed universe must be able to produce observers - and we’ll get to the implications
of that soon - including the contentious idea that this predicts the existence of universes
beyond our own. But today we’re going to focus on the weak
anthropic principle, although it’s anything but weak. It says that we must find ourselves in a part
of the universe capable of supporting us. For example, in a planetary biosphere rather
than floating in the void between the galaxies. This may seems tautological, but accounting
for this observer selection bias is important to understanding why the universe looks the
way it does from our perspective. And the weak anthropic principle is much more
useful than that. When combined with the apparent absence of
alien civilizations, it may tell us that intelligent life is incredibly rare in our universe. To get to this, let's think about what it
means to be an intelligent observer. Your mental experience of thinking about these
questions ... exists. It's happening right now. Your type of mental experience - your type
of being - could be incredibly rare - even unique - and only be possible in very unusual
environments. But you're having that experience - you ARE
that experience. So no matter how rare these you-supporting
environments really are - by definition you’re in one. The weak anthropic principle places no limit
on how rare those you-supporting environments are. For example, if there’s only one life-bearing
planet in the galaxy, or in the universe, you’re going to be on it. The rare earth hypothesis posits exactly
this - that a range of factors made Earth exceptionally unusual and uniquely able to
produce intelligent life. This hypothesis was inspired by some striking
observations about our home planet, which I’ll get to - but also by one other piece
of evidence. Or, rather, a lack thereof - the fact that
we see no evidence for aliens. The Fermi Paradox notes the apparent contradiction
between the massive abundance of potential opportunities for technical life to have emerged
and spread through our galaxy and the apparent lack of galactic civilizations. Now, we’ve talked about the Fermi Paradox before,
and some potential solutions. But let’s consider the possibility that
it is exactly how it seems - technological civilizations are exceedingly rare - and maybe
that’s because Earth is an exceedingly rare planet. The solution to the Fermi paradox is often
expressed in terms of one or more great filters - extremely difficult or unlikely steps in
the development from barren planet to visible technological civilization. Such a filter might be after our own stage
of development - climate change, nuclear obliteration, whatever - still waiting out there to wipe us out. But the Rare Earth hypothesis is a little
more optimistic - it states that planets capable of spawning civilizations even at our own
level are very rare. The idea was named and brought to popular
attention in the book by Peter Ward and Robert Brownlee in 2000. It highlights a series of remarkable qualities
of planet Earth that may have been needed for life and intelligence to arise here. Let’s take a look at them. Actually, let’s start by something that
is NOT rare about the Earth. Earth-like planets are common. And by Earth-like I mean rocky planets about the
size of the Earth in orbit around stars very similar to the Sun at the right distance to sustain
liquid water on their surface - in the so-called habitable or Goldilocks zone. The Kepler mission has revealed there should
be 10 billion or so in our galaxy - 40 billion if we permit other star types. So, billions of potential starting points for
life in the Milky Way alone, even if we restrict ourselves to boring old carbon-based water-loving
planet life. That’s billions of planets stewing for billions
of years - if only one civilization had a tiny head start on us then it could have colonized
the galaxy by now. Unless Earth has special qualities that mean
true Earth-like planets are much rarer. Let’s think about what Earth’s has got
that seems critical for life and that could be unique. If we see that even one other planet has some
life-critical quality, then we know that that quality could be relatively common. But if we’ve only ever seen that quality
on Earth then it could be hugely uncommon - and the weak anthropic principle says it’s
still not surprising for us to find ourselves on one of the very few planets with that quality. We’ll start by comparing planets of our
solar system, because our ability to probe extra-solar planets is still in its infancy. Broadly, Earth has two qualities not shared
by the other rocky planets in our solar system: 1) it has a very dynamic interior and 2) a
very large moon. Earth’s solid iron inner core spins suspended
in a molten metal outer core, and this motion generates a powerful magnetic field that protects
Earth from dangerous space radiation and solar storms. Above Earth’s core is a solid mantle which
still flows due to its heat. This drives plate tectonics on the surface
- plates of Earth’s crust float around and are periodic drawn back into the mantle, or
subducted. This results in shifting connections between
ecosystems. And that may have been a critical driver of evolution,
promoting biodiversity. The periodic subduction of tectonic plates
recycles nutrients from the crust into the mantle and then back into the atmosphere through
volcanic activity. Without this biogeochemical cycle, many life-critical
elements may have been lost to the biosphere long ago. So Earth’s dynamic interior seems to be
life-critical in multiple ways. By comparison, Mars is tectonically dead and
Venus is at best tectonically weak - certainly neither have protective geomagnetic fields. We don’t know whether tectonic activity
is rare in exoplanets, but it may be. Which brings us to the moon. Earth’s moon is ridiculously gigantic - no
other rocky planet in our system has anything like it. Its size and also its composition and orbit
suggest that it formed when a Mars-ish sized planet collided with the Earth right after its
formation. The debris thrown up during this collision
became our moon. Now, this could be an incredibly rare scenario,
even galaxy-wide. It may also be that our moon and the event
that formed it was critical to the development of life. That impact likely gave Earth its rapid rotation
rate - with short nights essential for photosynthesis, and also its axial tilt. A moderate tilt could be critical if seasons
are an important driver of evolution. Too large a tilt and seasons become too extreme
for life to thrive. Earth’s tilt seems just right - perhaps
even rare. That impact may even have kickstarted Earth’s
extreme tectonic activity by fragmenting Earth’s early crust into moving plates. And the moon’s later tidal influence may
also be an important factor in enhancing ongoing tectonic activity. And a final possible result of our weirdly
large moon is that it enabled the first appearance of life. It may have enabled abiogenesis. One hypothesis for the first formation of
life is that it evolved in tidal pools, with complex chemicals and eventually proto-cells
emerging as a primordial soup sloshed in these pools, baking in the sun. Without a large moon tides are half the size, so fewer tidal pools. More recently, alternative hypotheses for
the location of abiogenesis have gained favor - particularly geothermal vents on the ocean
floor. OK, so Earth is weirdly dynamic and has a
weirdly giant moon, but there’s more. Our entire planetary system is pretty weird. We’ve only figured this out as the Kepler
mission wrapped up its census of other planetary systems. Our solar system has a huge range of planet
properties - from the tiny rocky Mercury to the gigantic gaseous Jupiter and Saturn. In contrast, the planets of most other systems
tend to be all around the same size as each other and planets as large as Jupiter and
Saturn are pretty rare - only around 10% of systems. And yet Jupiter in particular was probably
pretty important for the development of life. That planet acts like a gigantic gravitational
vacuum cleaner, absorbing a lot of the debris left over from the formation of the solar
system. It no doubt sucked up many comets and asteroids
would otherwise have hit the Earth. If we’d had a significantly higher rate
of mass-extinction-level impacts, perhaps evolution would not have progressed so far. Perhaps life would have been wiped out entirely. There are a few other possible rare Earth factors - we
may have an unusually hospitable atmosphere and water content and may have been lucky in avoiding
various cosmic catastrophes like gamma ray bursts. But the final thing that may make Earth a cosmic
rarity is the path taken by evolution. Perhaps life is extremely common - or at least
extremely simple life is common. Perhaps the great filter is one or more extremely
improbable steps that happened in the evolutionary transition from single-cellular life to complex
life, or to intelligence. Just one example of this: the evolution of
the eukaryote cell. This seems to have been a freak evolutionary
incident, in which two much simpler cell types fused - one absorbing the other, perhaps in
a failed attempt at dinner. The absorbed cell became mitochondria, an
energy power house that allowed the new chimerical cell to massively increase its complexity,
ultimately leading to the first multicellular organisms. There are many factors that shaped Earth’s
formation and development - what if the Cambrian explosion had never happened, or the asteroid never wiped out the dinosaurs, or an extra asteroid wiped out our ancestors? There are lots of ways that it seems Earth
got lucky. The question raised by the rare earth hypothesis
is just how lucky were we? Many of Earth’s life-critical qualities
or development steps have not been seen elsewhere, nor do they seem to have happened more than once - at least yet. The weak anthropic principle allows that these
singular events were phenomenally unlikely - we simply can’t assign them larger probabilities
until we get more evidence - which ideally means seeing them happen more than once. It’s very possible that a combination of
extremely unlikely factors means it’s extremely rare for planets to spawn intelligence. The Fermi paradox surely has a solution, and
that solution may be that the galaxy is as empty as it looks. We find ourselves in the only place we could
be: gazing out from our rare earth into the untamed, unpopulated reaches of spacetime. We skipped comment responses last episode,
so today we're covering two episodes - loop quantum gravity and time travel. Easy peasy. A few of you wondered if there's a connection
between the loops of loop quantum gravity and the closed strings of string theory. The answer is not really. The strings of string theory have a somewhat
physical interpretation - the fact that they can hold energy and vibrate and exist in space. But the loops of LQG aren't really physical at all. Which brings us to the most common question
- what actually ARE the loops of loop quantum gravity? Well, crudely, they're a mathematical way
to describe the geometry of space - which means they aren't in space, they sort of ARE space. Or at least familar 3-D space emerges in an
abstract way when we think about a network of these loops. But that doesn't mean the loops are physical,
they're just a way to parameterize the quantum-scale geometry of space. Where we transition from the abstract to the
physical is not at all clear, and, honestly, hurts my head. Dig into spin networks and spin foam if you
want a headache too. Serenity Receiver asked about the experiment to test Loop Quantum Gravity So LQG predicts that light of different wavelengths travels at very slightly different speeds. And this was NOT observed in the light from a
distant gamma ray burst, which presents a challenge for the theory. So why does LQG predict different speeds of
light? Well, if space is quantized on tiny scales, then
we expect the very shortest wavelengths of light to be slightly perturbed by these quantum
cells of space - sort of like traveling through cracked glass - they interact with the edges
and slow down. Wavelengths longer than this quantum scale
can ignore this fragmentation and so travel at normal speed. There were some good questions on the Typler
cylinder - that's the infintiely long cylinder that you can travel around to end up back
where you started - in both time and space. Some One asks if a circle in 2 spatial dimensions
would allow for closed time like curves. Actually yes! I saw this in at least one paper. Time travel is easy in flatland. Troy Henry asked if a torus would serve as
an infinitely long cylinder - well the answer is, sadly, no. The cylinder has to literally go on forever
in both directions. At the beginning of the time travel episode
I invited future time travelers to show up on set. None of you did. But several of you got onto the comments to say
I forgot to post the address of the studio one year from now. But I have to ask - why did you wait until after
that episode to tell me that? Surely as time travelers you could have reminded
me in the loop quantum gravity comments the week before. I'm suspicious. Or maybe Stephen Hawking's chronology projection
conjecture prohibits anyone from remembering to post addresses to time traveler parties. But Guy Frost has a better explanation - YouTube
won't survive into the far future. I guess when it goes offline you can blame that
invitation.
Wow! The earth got hit by a mars sized planet! That is NUTS!
Also, very sad episode to think there are no aliens. A very boring universe. We will have to seed planets with life so hopefully they can live in a more interesting universe full of aliens.
And here we have the greatest joke ever told.