Why U.S. Real Estate Is So Flawed | CNBC Marathon

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Housing should be a right and not a privilege. Every American deserves a safe and stable place to call home. Rent growth is accelerated coast to coast in big cities, rural areas, east, west, south, north—it's across the entire economy. A lot of jobs that require a bachelor's degree are going to go away. Our mortgage system is one of the main factors that decides who has a stable financial life and it needs to serve all of America. And it's not doing that. Mortgage rates are on the rise and they're not showing any signs of slowing down. Mortgage rates have now risen up above 5% for the first time in a long time. And home prices have also been rising. If you look at predictions of where mortgage rates may be, say, two or three years from now, most people are looking at interest rates to 7% to 7 .5%. A mortgage typically refers to a loan used to buy a piece of real estate for which that property serves as collateral. Today, 63% of homeowners in America are paying off their mortgages, according to Zillow. Every percentage increase in a mortgage rate significantly increases the monthly payment, especially for low and moderate income families. So there are good reasons in the broader economy for raising rates. But this isn't good news for those trying to purchase a home. But experts say that high rates aren't the only issue with mortgages that could hinder Americans from achieving home ownership. Our economy has totally transformed in the last 50 years, and mortgages have not. If we update our system to better serve everyone in America, it will profoundly advance us in having a more equitable country. How do mortgages make it more difficult to own a home in the United States? And can anything be done to solve it? The price of a home often exceeds the amount of money that most Americans save. Mortgages exist to allow these individuals and families to purchase a home with a small down payment, receiving a loan for the remaining balance. But cost still remains a big issue. We have an affordability crisis in the United States, and I would say COVID actually revealed an exacerbated an existing crisis, but it's only gotten worse. So what we fundamentally have is a supply problem, and that correlates with an affordability challenge. Americans today are forced to take larger loans to finance a home. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta found that a median income household would need to spend 34.9% of its yearly income on a median priced home. For reference, households that pay more than 30% of their monthly income for housing are considered cost burden, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The cost factor is also why there is currently a large percentage of renters wondering if they'll even ever be able to move from renting to owning. And even condos and townhouses are raising in costs across cities for half a million dollars and up, significantly raising the down payment amount and mortgage loan debt. Saving for a down payment is one of the biggest barriers to homeownership. The Center for Responsible Lending calculated that a typical worker needs eight years to save for a 3% down payment for a median priced home and 30 years for 20%. While certain programs like FHA loans allow homes to be purchased with smaller down payment, being able to afford a high down payment comes with its own set of benefits. If you come in with a lot of money down, it's easier to qualify for a mortgage. It's also less expensive to get a mortgage. Something like 40% of families in America have no financial margin. They couldn't even afford a $400 medical bill or challenge. So the idea of being able to save a 20% down payment is almost unimaginable. And again, it goes back to the fact. Worse than ever right now is that food costs are going up, energy costs are going up, rents are skyrocketing so much faster than incomes right now. All of those get in the way of families being able to save for a down payment. A number of state and local institutions also offer what's known as down payment assistance programs to combat this issue. There is not nearly, though, enough money for those down payment programs. The other problem has been that the programs are not standardized and it makes it harder for lenders to use them and more reluctant to use them. And it also makes it harder for people to know about them and how they qualify for them. Congress was considering a big package of downpayment assistance for first generation homebuyers as part of the debate over build back better last year. But the Senate failed to enact the bill. So we're still hoping that might be revived. Another prominent issue is the lack of small dollar mortgages or loans issued for less than $100,000. Having smaller mortgages i s important because by definition those are going to be affordable for a family on a more modest income. For first time homeowners, a lot of these small dollar mortgages are available for affordable, low cost properties in urban, suburban or rural communities. Prior to the pandemic, more than a quarter of home sales nationwide were priced below $100,000. Yet just 23.2% were purchased using a mortgage, compared to 73.5% of homes priced at or above $100,000, according to the Urban Institute. It is particularly hard for people who are buying smaller houses with smaller mortgages to find a lender and to get that mortgage. And they also surprisingly are more expensive. And the issue has been getting worse. The total value of mortgage loans between $10,000 and $70,000 and between $70,000 and $150,000 dropped by over 53% and over 21%, respectively, from 2011 to 2021. Meanwhile, values for loans exceeding $150,000 rose by a staggering 240% plus in the same period. Another study found that denial rates for small dollar loans were notably higher than denial rates for larger loans. And it's not because these loans are riskier. Accompanying research found that applicants for small dollar loans had similar credit profiles to applicants for larger loans. The real reason is profit. It costs about the same amount of money to take an application and run it through your system and fund a mortgage and have it appraised and do all those things regardless of how big the mortgage is. So if it cost me the same amount of money to do a $700,000 mortgage as it does to do a $70,000 mortgage, but I get all my fees and my interest based on the loan amount, so I'm going to get a lot less revenue on a $70,000 mortgage than I am on a $700,000 mortgage. The lack of small dollar mortgages then drives these affordable homes into the hands of retail investors looking for profit. Small dollar homes that could represent the first step on the path to homeownership for a family of modest income are not being sold with mortgages, which means they're probably being bought for cash. That means somebody with deep pockets is able to come in and offer to pay cash. They often buy the homes through automated systems where they buy them without even seeing the house. They get an automated appraisal, a remote inspection, and buy houses in bulk. And that's pulling a lot of houses out of what's already an overly scarce affordable housing market for these smaller, less costly houses. So a lot of harm coming out of the difficulty of people being able to access small dollar mortgages. In response, home buyers may resort to dubious methods to purchase a property. One example that is surprisingly prevalent is people end up into something they call contract for deeds, where it's essentially you're renting. And if you make every payment on the loan on time, you eventually will own the house. But if you miss any payment, you not only lose the house, you have no equity in it either. And there are millions of these transactions out there in the country today. And it's because people don't have the alternative. They're being pushed into those mortgages. On top of everything, it's generally become more difficult to qualify for a mortgage. The Housing Credit Availability Index, which represents the lender's tolerance for risk, has remained almost at the same level since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. In response to the great foreclosure crisis, lenders and investors got very tight about their underwriting criteria and have kept them at this sort of reactive level since then. The deck is particularly stacked against borrowers with low credit scores. As millions of homeowners went into mortgage forbearance programs at the start of the pandemic, banks raised their borrowing standards for protection. During the fourth quarter of 2021, less than a quarter of new mortgages originated to borrowers with credit scores under 720. An important part of the unfairness and the impact of that is credit scores reflect to a great extent how much family and personal wealth you have. If you're a wealthy person, it is not difficult to get a mortgage. But if you have less wealth and a lower credit score, it's really challenging right now. And despite the many regulations designed to prevent lending discrimination, racial bias is still prevalent in the mortgage industry. According to the most recent data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, denial rates for home purchase applications were 18.1% for black applicants and 12.5% for Hispanic white applicants, compared to just 6.9% for non-Hispanic white applicants and 9.7% for Asian applicants. Lenders can look up additional debts of a potential homebuyer, including that of medical debt and student loan debt relative to the loans that are in default, which can limit opportunities for less established potential homebuyers. Expecting communities that have not historically had the privilege of financial liberties to be financially secure when making one of those important purchases of their lifetime is like expecting an athlete with no training or coaching to win a national championship title. It's just unrealistic and it's indeed a stretch and has certainly added to the difficulty of home buying in the U.S.. The easiest way to solve today's mortgage market is resolving the supply of housing in America. If we don't increase the supply of starter homes, first time homes and homes that are accessible for working families with low and moderate incomes, then it's going to be really hard to solve it just from a lending perspective. We've got to have more housing. If you just provide more credit, it drives up housing prices even more without expanding the supply. Another important aspect is having a mortgage market that supports the needs of all Americans. If we have more supply, we also should work on downpayment assistance and we think we're going to need more subsidy there and financial counseling and preparation to help families clean up their credit and be well prepared to be able to obtain loans. Several measures can also be taken to overcome some of the systemic barriers that prevent certain subgroups from achieving home ownership. Our mortgage system just has to work for today's economy and people who are doing the right thing, scrambling to put together a living, saving as much money as they can. But those are just tougher in this new economy. And our mortgage system has to serve those people who are playing by the rules and not getting a chance to get ahead. If we want to overcome some of the systemic barriers to homeownership for households of color, we really want to recognize that and think really hard about unpacking those systemic barriers and doing something to address them directly, like looking for alternative ways to assess credit, looking for ways to count income from gig economy jobs, and second and third jobs, and seasonal jobs, and from other household members who are contributing, and looking for ways to help people with down payment assistance to establish that collateral. Continuing to question and improve the mortgage system in the United States is key to preserving the ideals of the American Dream. Our mortgage system is one of the main factors that decides who has a stable financial life, who has a secure place to live, who builds financial wealth, and it needs to serve all of America. And it's not doing that. And so unless there are very deliberate, significant interventions and changes in our system, we're going to look back in 20 years and find that we're even in a worse place than we were in 2022. Rent in America is getting more expensive no matter where you live. Rent growth is accelerated coast to coast. In big cities, rural areas, east, west, south, north. It's across the entire economy. The areas where we are seeing the strongest rent growth are in places like Austin, Texas. Yes, my name is Maria and I live in Austin, Texas. During the pandemic, a lot of people began to leave and actually the rent dropped that year by $100. I am due to renew my rent and there was a spike of $400. Making matters worse, few of the new homes in construction are affordable. Rental demand continues to be extremely strong and the rental units that are being built are the more expensive ones. That is the higher end ones. Meanwhile, workers pay isn't increasing enough to match the new rent. We had wage suppression for 40 years and then we have the period now where wages are growing, especially at the low end. And so the question is how long will that continue? Experts say the rent increases will have an impact on the economy. A lot of the monthly expense for the typical household is money that's going toward the rent or to upkeep of the house. So it is a very important part of all of consumer expenditures. In the most competitive markets. Rents are creeping toward record highs. Renters in smaller markets are feeling the squeeze, too. For example, one bedroom rentals in Gilbert, Arizona, spiked over 116% in the past year. Meanwhile, rent for a single family home is growing at its fastest pace since 2005, according to CoreLogic. So how did we get here? One answer is the bounce back from the pandemic. You saw tech companies, major firms moving to smaller cities. Cities like Pittsburgh, Austin, San Antonio, Charlotte. These are cities that really started booming because workers had more flexibility. And when the city starts booming, of course, the rents go up because it's a supply and demand issue. But the story goes back further than that, all the way back to the Great Recession. President Obama, are you listening? This has been building really since the end of the financial crisis back a little over a decade ago. A lot of communities have made it more difficult to build more homes closer to the urban core. Building materials, particularly lumber, has been in short supply. That's been a problem. Labor. A lot of people left the construction trades in the housing bust back a decade ago, and because of changes in foreign immigration laws, we have a lot fewer foreign immigrants coming into the country. Many of those folks would work in the construction trades. Also, a lot of smaller builders, they rely on loans from banks. And since the financial crisis, banks, particularly smaller banks, mid-size banks have been unable, to because of regulatory changes and other reasons, unable to provide enough loans. So there's a mélange of things going on here. After the financial crash of 2008, house building stalled. By the end of the '10s, renters had fewer options, especially in real estate hotspots. Pre-COVID, we saw a huge rush to urban centers. Millennials love to live in cities longer. They were actually living there longer than the previous generations their age had because they weren't able to get out and afford to buy homes because home prices were so high. So you had so much demand in the cities. Then the pandemic hit. So if you look at some of the high rise apartment buildings in the really dense central business districts, the big cities, rents were actually declining in the first 12 months of the pandemic. But smaller cities like Phoenix and Austin received more of those remote workers. That sent prices upward for people like Maria. Right now, I would say for a studio is probably $2,000. But this place, it's a one bedroom, was originally set at $1700 when I first moved in. Maria is a teacher and needs to commute to work every day. She and many other Americans don't have the luxury to move further away from work to save cash. That's creating wider issues in the economy. There's a lot of evidence that the lack of housing closer to where the demand is in urban cores is having a meaningful negative consequence on long term economic growth. So if we can figure out a way to change zoning rules and laws and get the lumber and land and labor that we need and able to build closer to where the jobs are, you know, our economy will be able to grow more quickly, more strongly in the longer run. Renters in the traditionally cheaper suburbs are feeling the burn, too. Economists say that finding any home to rent right now is uniquely difficult. Because the vacancy rates are really so low. It's the lowest we've seen in a generation. Coming out of the pandemic, it's likely for rents to keep rising. Fortunately, builders are ramping up their building. They can make a lot of money with rents this high and house prices this high. So they have a lot of incentive to put up more homes. And that's happening slowly but surely. We are seeing more homes put up. So that's a good sign. And we've seen an increase in single family housing starts. That's really important because that's the preferred housing structure during the pandemic. So having investors come in, buying homes maybe puts a little upward pressure on home prices, sure, maybe it does, But it does increase the stock of single family rental homes available in the market and should help to moderate rent growth. And in the cities, some realtors are weighing whether to convert their less busy office districts into residential neighborhoods. The idea is to say that there are some empty buildings, you know, brick and mortars already established, but maybe one can repurpose it into residential units. For the short term, renters are dealing with the market. If I had signed the lease, it would be taking a lot of my savings. And so I decided to move to a new building. I'm losing about 150 square feet. These hikes are hitting U.S. citizens at an inopportune time. Over decades, wages for most workers have stagnated. The wages and benefits of a typical worker were suppressed in the period four decades after 1979. Growth was very slow. There was growing inequality that worked against the middle and against anybody in the bottom 90%. In 2019, Oregon became the first state to impose statewide rent control. They cap increases at about 7%. Cities like New York, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. also limit rent increases. These policies have some benefits. One study found that renters were about 20% more likely to stay in their homes with rent control. Other economists think that rent control does more harm than good. So what history has shown is that by putting a rent control, yes, it benefits temporarily for people to pay lower rent, but that deters incentive to build more homes or provide money for maintenance. So all the housing stock steadily deteriorates over time. And one does not want to see that. So we want to encourage more production. The answer to rising rents may be in the job market. Both Congress and the Fed have pumped stimulus into the economy. It should eventually help some workers earn higher wages. There's been a huge increase in the demand for goods and services. So we're going to see a period of sustained low unemployment, I think. This has always led to faster wage growth for those in the middle and the bottom. The other related question is: will we see the structural changes that will build this into the economy rather than be an episode, a period of low unemployment? And I think that will require improving labor standards, putting in the $15 minimum wage, rebuilding collective bargaining. I think it will mean paying attention to maintaining low unemployment. Which means that the answer to rising rents might be getting yourself a raise or finding roommates. They're not building enough affordable housing right now because for builders, the cost of construction is so high due to a high cost for land, labor, materials, shortage for materials, shortages of labor, that they can't build affordable housing. You know, it took us ten years to get into this predicament. It's not going to be solved next year or the year after. It's going to be ten years before we solve this problem. The homeless crisis in America is worsening again. The COVID pandemic caused a surge in housing costs and a rise in unemployment, leaving nearly 600,000 Americans unhoused in 2020. We have to shut down a piece of our own humanity to be able to walk past another human being that is in such a difficult situation. Being homeless, your day is anywhere spent from where I'm going to lay my head at tonight, where I'm getting my next bite of food from. And what people don't typically realize when they walk past a person who is homeless, is that this person is costing taxpayers a lot of money. Cities across America are spending more than ever to combat the crisis. In 2019, New York spent a record breaking $3 billion to support its homeless population. California is also expected to break its record, allocating $4.8 billion of its budget to the same issue over the next two years. And areas like that just don't seem to be getting any better, despite the fact that every politician claims that this is a top priority of theirs and the budgets keep going up. Overall, homelessness in America has only improved 10% compared to 2007. It's even worse for certain subgroups, such as individual homelessness, which dropped only a percent in the same period. On the contrary, 2020 saw a 30% increase in the unsheltered homeless, erasing over half a decade of work since its dramatic rise in 2015. Right now, we are trending in the wrong direction. So the state of homelessness right now is pretty tenuous and there are some small increases that are taking place across the board. So how is the U.S. addressing the homeless crisis and can it ever be solved? Homelessness is known to prey on some of the most vulnerable populations in America. In 2020, 20% of those who were unhoused suffered from severe mental disorders, while 16% suffered from chronic substance abuse. In response, the U.S. has long relied on a housing ready approach to homelessness, where those who are unhoused had to meet specific requirements such as sobriety or completion of treatment in order to qualify for a home. That was until this man, Dr. Sam Tsemberis, pioneered the Housing First initiative. At some point, myself and the people we were working with realized that really insisting that people changed, get sober, take medication, get your life together in order to earn or be awarded housing was not working. It was just, you know, people couldn't. People were on the street. They couldn't stay sober. They were not interested in medication. They were interested in being somewhere safe and secure. The Housing First initiative follows two tenets. First, the most effective solution to homelessness is permanent housing. And second, all housing for the homeless should be provided immediately without any preconditions. Putting people in housing first, which is what they were desperate to do, calms that survival thing. People are safe, secure, and then they're saying to us, I need more help here. So then rather than having us pushing or coercing people to get to treatment, people get housing, and then they want to treat. Under the George W. Bush administration, the Housing First initiative gained the spotlight as the key to ending homelessness. Related programs soon received billions of dollars in support from government agencies such as the United States Interagency Council on Homelessness and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Housing First's rise really begins in the nineties, especially the late nineties, and I think it really gained traction as the philosophy that should dominate these dedicated homeless services agencies and programs. And so we're in a situation now where if you meet people who work at HUD on homelessness or in major agencies in California and New York, it's relatively rare to not find them be committed to Housing First. If you really look at it, this year, the federal government will give about $2.7 billion to housing and service providers and towns and cities across the country. For decades, the Housing First policy has successfully housed individuals that need it the most. Shannon McGhee is one of them. A nonprofit organization, Pathways to Housing, helped Shannon move into his supportive housing in 2020 after staying unhoused for four years. It started in 2008, losing my mom to lung cancer and then not having a strong support system to support me throughout the process, I ended up losing the family house. They sold the family house and didn't have anywhere to go. And that started the stint of being homeless. From being housed to now being unhoused, the shelter for me was very hard. It was a cultural shock. It was very hard to adjust to the environment, the living standards. I finally got connected to the Veteran Affairs and a social worker with them connected me to Pathways. And since being connected to Pathways, everything has turned around 360 degrees. I'm housed, I'm looking for gainful employment. I'm in school now. So without having Pathways there to kind of be that support and that coach to guide me into housing, I wouldn't be where I'm at now. A study in 2004 discovered that when individuals were provided with stable, affordable housing, with services under their control, 79% remained stably housed at the end of six months. Another study in 2000 found it to be more effective than traditional programs. 88% of the participants in Housing First programs remain housed, compared to just 47% in the city's residential treatment program. And it's not just in the United States. A similar study conducted in Canada revealed similar results, showing participants of Housing First programs obtaining and retaining housing at a much higher rate. The evidence has shown that by getting people housed immediately and eliminating the chaos of homelessness created a space where people would be more successful. I don't have to be in that environment anymore where I'm subjected to using drugs or to doing things for money that I didn't want to do. I can change my focus. Because now I can say, Hey, you're housed. How can we get you to your next level of finding gainful employment? What steps can we work on now? Housing First not only supports those in need with housing, but the assistance they need to get back on their feet again. It's Housing First, not Housing Only. Because there are very rich services, like there's a team of people, really, whether they're social workers or social workers and nurses and psychiatrists, people with lived experience. It's like a support services team. And then the team says to you, How can I help you? They provide wraparound support for me. So if I need assistance in getting things such as my ID or birth certificate, they can help with that. They support me through that process. If I need to make appointments at the VA hospital, they support me through that process. With any and everything that I pretty much need done, I have support through Pathways to Housing. Supporters of Housing First also argue that it's cost efficient. A comprehensive study in 2015 concluded that shelter and emergency department costs decreased with Housing First policies. What people don't typically realize when they walk past the person who's homeless is that this person is costing taxpayers a lot of money. People get very sick when they're homeless. They have to be taken to the hospital. Sometimes they steal food. They have no money. They get arrested. Court costs, police time, jail time. When you tally up the annual costs of people who are homeless and very vulnerable, it turns out we're actually spending sometimes $50,000 a year or $100,000 a year in some cases, and the person is still homeless. But perhaps the biggest advantage to Housing First is the improvement in the quality of life it provides. Being homeless and being a parent, I kind of didn't want my child to see me in that situation, so it kind of put a wedge in our relationship for a little bit. But once I got housed, now I could provide a space where we can interact together and she wouldn't have to be subjected to that lifestyle. Being able to have my housing first, I know that I'm in control of my environment now. What happens here is all about what I create. But Housing First also comes with its own set of criticisms. Experts like Stephen Eide from the Manhattan Institute believe that Housing First hasn't shown any real result. When the public is told that this particular policy is going to end homelessness, what they're expecting is that they're going to see fewer homeless people around. That homelessness numbers will significantly drop as a result of the implementation of this policy. And I don't think that we've seen that in the case of Housing First. Critics also point out that Housing First might not be as cost effective as it looks. Research in 2015 discovered that while permanent housing intervention was more successful in achieving housing stability, it was also more expensive than temporary housing. A 2018 survey by the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine also concluded that there is no published evidence to prove that permanent supportive housing improves health outcomes or reduces health care costs. No government that I'm aware of has saved money by investing in homeless services through a Housing First approach. You can talk about potential cost offsets. That is, if you invest $1,000,000 in Housing First, that will trim some of the budgets and some other service systems. You're not going to actually save money, reduce the cost of government, to the point where you could be talking about, let's say, a tax reduction as a result of investing in housing first. So I think that there has been some misleading of the public with respect to that concern. There is also the question of whether the need for housing actually triumphs over the need for treatment. If we want more from people, we have to be talking about far more than just housing. But in the housing first era, there's a way in which housing just continues to suck all the air out of the room. And all we keep coming back to is are we doing enough to expand the stock of subsidized housing to help the homeless? Meanwhile, Dr. Tsemberis argues that the criticisms towards Housing First are designed to blame those who are unhoused rather than to assist them. They want to go back to treatment and sobriety first and then housing maybe. Because that changes the entire narrative back to homelessness is the fault of the individual. You know, anybody who fails in a capitalist society like ours with no taxation and no government, it's only because it's their fault. Housing First hit its first bump under the Trump administration that sought to replace it with programs focused more on treatment and sobriety. They were talking about housing fourth as a policy, housing fourth, okay? And that was very deliberate because it's Housing First and they were like, no, housing fourth. You know, treatment, sobriety, employment and housing maybe. You know, that was a very, very targeted attack. The Biden administration, however, showed a return to Housing First. The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 included 70,000 emergency housing vouchers and a staggering $350 billion in state and local fiscal recovery funds in an effort to aid homelessness and housing instability. The Biden administration absolutely supports the Housing First approach. They feel that in a society as ours that housing should be a right and not a privilege, that every American deserves a safe and stable place to call home. So they are providing the resources and the support. Critics of Housing First believe that lawmakers need to be giving more alternative policies a chance and approach the homeless crisis in a more structured manner. We need to have them invest in a broad range of programs, residential programs, that can benefit the homeless population in all its variety, because the homeless population is very diverse . Within that framework, Housing First-like programs would have a place, low barrier programs would have a place, but they would not rule the roost in the way that they currently do. Those in support of Housing First believe that more resources and support from the government are needed to truly end the crisis once and for all. Well, if you don't have the resources in the program to deliver a place to live, then your listening and your promise to them is hollow. You need to have the listening, let's call that the policy, which is housing first, person first, but then you need the resources behind the policy: apartments, subsidy, support services in order to actually make the package viable. We're nowhere near where we need to be in investment, either of building public housing or affordable housing, having the capacity to address the homeless problem. We're nowhere near. What's important is that homelessness is a crisis that can be solved as long as there is enough attention, care and resources to support the cause. It's just very disgraceful that in a country that's so blessed, so wealthy, that has done some things right in the past, if not everything, that we can't do something to fix this problem or at least make it smaller, ameliorate it. So there's a lot of good work going on. So that's what gives me hope that we can actually turn the nighttime stars into a daytime where we just turn up the lights enough to really end it for all. Because the other thing gives me hope is we know how to do it. We have the cure. We have good examples of how it's done. We need to take it to scale.
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Channel: CNBC
Views: 1,274,370
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Keywords: CNBC, CNBC original, business, business news, finance, financial news, housing, apartments, money, mortgage, building, apartment, covid, economy, interest rates, pandemic, home, single family home, townhouse, yard, basement, renters, landlords
Id: FX_aiXBJwY8
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Length: 38min 2sec (2282 seconds)
Published: Sun Jan 29 2023
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