Why The UK Will Never "Rejoin" The EU After Leaving

[Music] hello I'm so camp welcome back so the second channel geopolitical video today when it's talk about the European Union and of course this relationship with the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland there is a little bit of relations difference going on between the two countries right now it's called brexit I don't know if you've heard of it it's this pretty niche political topic that doesn't come up very often at all especially not all the time here in the UK but basically long story short in 2016 the UK held a referendum on whether they should remain a member through you or whether they should vote to leave and by a margin of 52 to 48 they decided to leave the EU and because this was 2016 four years ago of course they've left a long time ago and the result that people was respected and long story short that didn't happen of course and we're still a full member of that uu something which is set to change likely late this month we don't know for sure but you might be questioning like okay so the UK is gonna probably leave the EU soon it's gonna be within the next month of the process formally properly starts and within the next few years that it's like fully independent from the EU but like therefore if that's the thing that's gonna happen will the UK every joint if you look at polls you see things like oh yeah wow the UK over time just gets more and more Pro remain if you give people the poll question again from 2016 of would you remain in the EU or would you leave you can see how people get steadily more and more Pro remain funnily enough it's almost exactly like 52 to 48 as to whether people would decide to remain the EU or leave it but you can see how like oh yeah steadily over time support for the EU is vaguely growing in the UK not by much but you see how that's happening and you see how like oh yeah there's you know like people like you know Lord has some kind of pretty Pro you figure saying that like oh you're in 20 years we can rejoin the EU it's even been stated that it might be an official party platform of one of the major party you know because obviously there's new candidates for different parties it's been one of those potential platform ideas of the UK rejoining the EU once they've left in in 2024 when government changes but the point once making today's video is that the UK will not rejoin the EU if the UK leaves and it's weird that four years after this result it's still a big if but if the UK does decide to leave the EU which is entirely up to the government and politicians in power right now then and also to do that you of course and but if that happens the UK will not be joining and let me explain why in today's video because you might look at this graph and say well if support just grows and grows and grows for remaining in the EU if support for the EU kind of grows and the EU continues to do well as it will and if the UK has you know slightly different treachery then you might start to see the like well of course what's gonna happen is the UK will come back to the EU at some point in the future but I think that's not necessarily likely and the reason why is again let's explain it because to join the EU you know cuz the UK once they leave we've never had a country leave the EU so we don't know the rejoining procedure but the kind of stated thing has been like if you want to join the EU what the EU has said to many different countries there might be rejoining such as you know the Scotland's or even like a Greenland is like well you have to fulfil the criteria of joining again you can't just say I used to be here let me back in you have to join kind of like your new member so the Copenhagen criteria it's still do a play and of course we could go for the Wikipedia article but for today you know it's got this big people people always question like when it's a video about this we need to be more specific than like here's a Wikipedia article that says it needs additional citations to confirm things so instead let's dive into the very exciting PDF file from the EU Parliament website themselves from the Copenhagen conclusions but let's just read for it very quickly of like what you need to train the EU because it's four main criteria you need to have stability of institutions to guarantee democracy rule of law you know laws need to be the thing that rule it not just random you know things based on knowing some of your government human rights and respect for minorities as kind of a sign on that one and then also a functioning market economy you can't have an on market economy in the EU because of the very nature of its existence you need to be a democracy for very obvious reasons and rule of law and human rights so I mean they're just nice ones to have on the side bro as well so obviously the UK is not gonna be losing any of those in the next four years I don't think anyone is imagining or in the next 20 or 50 years it is very unlikely to lose those things so you might say so what's the big deal then well the other big thing is if you want to join eat you you also it's presupposed that you're the kind of disabilities take on the obligations of membership including adherents to the aims of political economic and monetary union we've had many EU officials saying that yes when you join the EU now it's not the same as joining in the 60s 70s or eight when the UK first applied and later when they got into it it's not the same as joining back then because the EU is a much bigger organization now the UK was actually part of the first wave of expansion to the EU really it used to be six countries the UK made its mine right now the EU is 28 or 27 soon potentially maybe members and as a result it's a different organization one which has a lot of different things and again you know how it's said right they're like oh yeah what was that about wait a minute so political economic and monetary union let's go through them one by one as to why the UK is very much opposed to those so the eurozone you know which by the way notice how there's the eurozone countries using the euro currency here in blue notice how there's a lot of countries in red most of them are pretty small the UK is by far the biggest and by far the one which is the most kind of like kind of against it right now joining the EU during the Euro is something that the UK specifically negotiated an opt-out for they do not want to join it as their currency that is not a thing you're likely to see right now however when the UK leaves the EU these opt outs these decisions not to join things will be leaving this means that you know joining the euro is pretty much an obligation at some point and although right now if you look like all the countries that are obliged to join are kind of dodging it by not joining erm to at some point in the future it's likely that you know a you which is always growing and always getting closer is going to say hey you've got to stop dodging that thing that you're legally obliged to do and that would apply to the UK if it decided to join so joining the EU in five years or in 50 years would come with the obligation that they have to join the eurozone something which is a big blame just the bigots a very big no-no four million people even again even along Phillipe row you people a lot of people who would have voted for the you know the remain count back in the day remaining is a very different thing to rejoining because you know yet to rejoining would require you to off of scooped up the Europe you know this currency would have to be our current slate I happen to have by extreme coincidence we'd have to change this currency right here with the Queen's head on it for this currency right here with a map of the EU and some stars around it look at the UK's still there isn't that cute but yeah that would be one of the consequences and obviously you might say well I mean if the UK does bad if the UK misses it or if just public opinion is swayed enough people might be pro-europe they might like the idea of having the same currency that they can travel abroad and go on holidays with etc there are some treatment if it's there joining it that never materialized for certain countries but did for the smaller countries in the EU the UK is obviously not smaller comes to a country we have one of the world's biggest currencies right here again it's even plastic these days isn't that fun but anyway so you know that's one of the things you might say well that's not too big of a deal but what if I said about the other opt-outs because honestly that you know the euro is a pretty big opt-out the you know Denmark and the UK both have opt outs of the economic and monetary union pretty big deal in a lot of different ways but also there's an opt-out off the Schengen area right there is a ability to not join the Union offer you know basically a passport Union every single you country you know you can go from all the way in Portugal to all the way and I don't know like Estonia if you want sue or even on you can cross a ferry over to Finland if you want no passport checks required in Schengen area countries this is a crazy ability that basically makes nation borders into more like state borders in the US or province borders and Canada where laws change and the country changes but also no checks whatsoever because they're all under the same quarters the UK and Ireland are in their own separate kind of passport Union which is separate to the rest offer that you you obviously after that you leaves that the EU this same thing is gonna remain in place and as a result you know having to join the Schengen area it could happen but it would not be popular for a lot of different reasons so yeah UK joining the EU again I mean you also have to join the whole thing which some people actually are in favor of right now but it removes your beliefs to have your own board policy something which you know would maybe make a lot of the people who were voting for leave even more incessant and a lot of people who were remain even in spite of that might switch sides on that one but you know what ignore the fact that you have to join the currency ignore the fact that you have to join the you know the common area of the the Schengen area the the common passport you knew of no borders in between countries because you know again it kind of for the holiday point for the you remain thing like people are more in favor of traveling now than ever it's a industry I can tell you that much maybe the idea that I could just take this could go somewhere might outweigh the idea of having an independent border policy independent monetary policy those things might not be a lot but what about those over opt-outs like okay so what about you know the opt-out for the Charter of Fundamental Rights Oh kind of a big deal what about the formal opt-out that the UK used to have back in like the 90s to the social chapter no longer a possibility to re opt out it on in and although I don't think it's a realistic possibility right now that's kind of a big deal but also the opt-out from ever closer Union because everything you know the EU is obliged to get closer as time goes on they want to you know ever since the EU was formed as a country of a flag and everything else like that the goal has been ever closer Union that is the point to eventually have a proper political union you know basically one day to be a country but the sort of country that has countries in it so they don't have to call it country you know looking at you the UK but um the the basic point here I'm trying to make is that the EU is getting closer not further apart the UK was alienated by the changes going closer together and this is only going to a continuous time goes on you know for instance things like the support in the European army which is of course very pop on Eastern Europe where you know it's done you could just be taken over by the Russians and what would the rest of the EU and NATO do we don't know for sure right now we hoped that we would support them but you know if it was only like a quarter of Estonia those taken would we would you would you start rushing over Estonia so a common EU armor is of course very popular in the former USSR countries 96% in Romania which is of course not former USSR its Soviet bloc but you can see how it's very high support in Eastern Europe and even in Central Europe with fairly weak military countries like the you know Germany or Austria or Italy for instance you can see how these countries are very much like yeah you know could kind of do that but you can see how Northern Europe the most Euroskeptic Botsford Sweden 15% of people Denmark 18% the Netherlands 33% the UK 2% Ireland zero is that impossible no one said yes even by accident nor was in favor of EU military headquarters and an EU military standing army these are the things that are a divide in the EU that without the UK the biggest member in this kind of pushing for and pushing against I should say really are likely to happen and if you had to join in EU that had a you know military even enshrined as an eventual thing or had happened would that be a thing the UK was down with you know I would question that one a lot but also I'd say the the other big point about the EU that made it kind of questionable about staying or leaving was the the budget of the EU if you don't know the UK is a well-off country compared to some of the other countries that are in the EU it's one of the better ones off and as a result the way that you works the way any Federal Union works that has a collective budget is you all pool in assert the way I guess at Society works is the taxes will come in based on the proportional richness so Poland for instance receives more from that you you than it puts in for instance a you know Bulgaria receives more from you than it puts in however countries like the Frances and the Germany's in the UK they put more money in than they get out because the idea is it's a collective thing it's it's one big sharing thing and if you have more you contribute more like a pizza party or something but basically this meant the UK was putting a lot of money as the EU something which was vaguely fixed by the opt-out sorry someone's make vaguely fixed by the rebate from the EU however because you know is that you budget if you don't know basically very boring article you can read for if you really want to but the thing I'm gonna stick to is this correction mechanism because the UK in the 1980s I think was moderate fat chirps specifically was like hey we like the EU but we're contributing a lot of money still stuff that isn't still bus so as a result the difference between what the UK puts in and what the UK gets out will is spent in the UK is reimbursed by 66 percent roughly and if they're estimated contribution budget expenditure but then they're so that this is like a rebate which obviously has been wanting to end you can even see how like the budget human budget resource director gun fan whatever a German man has been trying to maybe an Austrian man actually you know should we check that one no a German man has been trying to trying to remove the opt outs including the mother full rebates the UK's but basically there's so many different rebates have like okay so Austria Germany Netherlands in Sweden oh don't want their contribution price too much to cat for the UK one also the v8c rate that is paid by Germany that Sweden is reduced also the lump sum payments are reduced for Austria Denmark the Netherlands and Sweden long story short right here is what friends say is the UK has a very weird so the EU has a very weird set of rebates which are going to be removed at some point but the UK's is them of our full rebates the biggest free Bay of them all something which would mean to rejoin the EU would cost the UK not just you know a little bit more would cost the UK billions more the rebate right now is worth some number of billions of pounds and that is likely to go up in the few you know that is likely to be a thing that is removed a additional expensive for you during the EU so to summarize all these points because you might be like well what are you trying to say hits okay I'm not sure I understand the UK if it wants to rejoin the EU would have to do so on significantly less favourable terms the the Euro would be an assumption of joining the Schengen area the Schengen treaty would be an assumption of joining joining one losing access to your own border policy and showing up one so border policy and monetary policy to things which are kind of key you might argue are going to be given away as a result potentially in future again right now it's bloated as like it used to be a conspiracy theory but it's been flicked by a lot of you figures as a real thing there will be a knee military at some point in the future whoever it's ten years or a hundred years that would be a potential joining in the future but also in exchange for all these significantly less favourable things having to join all these organizations we currently do not and having to do so kind of like from a position of weakness also the UK would be paying more for the perch of doing so get that right here the UK if it decides to rejoin can't just undo what has been done over the last four years the UK would have to have to be in a situation where it pays more money for a less favourable entry and maybe there are some people in favor that maybe this movement lost forever but the truth is the UK was never hugely in favor of remaining in the EU the UK was never super pro EU are may you stay you country EU Union forever its song that's kind of swarmed out that you have a friend and result which is maybe a cool think that you you but it's something the UK was never hugely in tongue like a big thing on the the north of Europe you see in Sweden you see this very strong in Iceland Norway who are still not EU members despite all the integration they do have that you you you see this in Denmark and you know you used to see an island before they got rich from the the way the whole thing worked but used in northern Europe there is a very strong skepticism towards the EU which is definitely felt in the UK too and given the UK's you know all the history and baggage and the differences it had you can imagine why the UK might just you maybe who knows for sure the UK is very much not in favor of the EU under the current conditions why would a set of worse conditions make it more favorable and that's um yeah that's kind of where I leave it unless something disastrous happens where the UK is literally on its knees you know like please sir please give some money unless something like that happens it is very unlikely and given that right now you know what I always assumed like there's the the logical conclusion from the EU and the UK is like why don't we make this a bad situation for the UK so that when they leave you know it shows a message to all the other members don't leave us all this happens that was the thing spouted by a lot of very conspiratorial people on the right but the truth is hasn't been happening I think that you can the EU will agree to some form of the mutually beneficial deal it might not be as good as full membership who knows for sure I I don't know I'm not an international tronic trade negotiator I'll be real of you but I think there is going to be some form of deal organised between the UK in the EU it's going to be some level of the current relationship and as a result of that as a result of the you know potential almost as because it is I think the big plan with the EU has just been make the UK look bad on the way out this brexit thing has been such a gas Co the support for the EU support for always and institutions has been going up all of the other countries that we for one point might leave the grexit of the world yeah grexit was the original BRICS sir and the grexit of the world the deck suits of the world the all these different Texas something else but all these different countries that fiercely could leave EU for exit you know haven't have actually gone towards you stability and most there has been the past in the migrant crisis but the other big factor has been looking at the UK leaving and being like ooh that's a mess I don't want that for us and that is what I'm trying to say right here the UK will probably leave unfavourable enough terms we don't know for sure right now it could be a disaster it genuinely could be the worst thing the world but what really matters here is how the UK deals with the fact that it's now and it's a nation making its own trade policy as opposed to being part of a block it could both you know full of every hurdle and that's why FA but yeah that's why I think it could go disastrously and then maybe that leap of rejoining but the UK also has a chance because it has so much soft power in the world to try and negotiate the perfect you know best of both worlds because right now the UK is part of the biggest economic market in the world the EU is very slightly bigger than the US thing on most measures in terms of GDP what's right in all the countries together so the you know the UK is currently part the biggest economic unit in the world if it leads the economic unit but can do serve retaining a lot of the benefits but then it can take advantage of the second largest economic you need economic union in the world the US and if it can do so also taking even bigger advantage of the third largest economic union in the world which is China and all of its various provinces and areas then that would be significantly more beneficial right now the UK you know you might say that's a weird fantasy and a lot of people who are very Pro you like to say well of course the UK can't do better than the Europe and of course there is a proximity benefit of Europe it's always going to be the biggest trade partner overall when you add in all the countries together the EU of course because just that's how geography works right now but services are going significantly more technology and information based in or information technology if you will the UK you know the thing that made London such a big city the thing that makes the UK one of the richer countries in the world right now fifth to seventh largest GDP depending how you count but the thing that met led to that being a thing is financial services something which the UK currently does you know like in huge numbers one of the biggest clearing offer euros including all of the EU one of the biggest clearers offer you know Chinese remand by if you'll believe there a lot of financial services all over the world already go free London a lot of you know traight you know the biggest manufacturer of chips in phones which that one's in your phone right now if you have an Android comes from the UK the designs are made here a lot of the different a lot of services that can be technological can be exported worldwide happen in the UK if the UK can focus on those and if the UK can get over what's currently happening the US where there's you know no names something something nationalistic president right there that's not necessarily wanting to throw a bone over someone but if the UK can agree very strong relations with everyone it could be a benefit but that's some will have to win see if the UK can try and retain as much of the EU benefits as it can while also taking advantage of the EU benefits that it loses and you're turning a negative into a positive whatever it could go well I don't know that one's sure though this video isn't really about that that was just like a tack on at the end because you can't talk about why the UK's not gonna rejoin about mentioning why it might not be a disaster because who knows for sure I only do think looking at the date right now this is a huge risk for a country to take I personally you know get if I was literally told right now would you take the risk I'd say you know wouldn't take the risk but uh oh you can see what I've searched recently I searched bonds yeah fill it in in Norway so fun fact but um yeah you might be in Stavanger but look it looks very short is you might it's really hard to say for sure anything's to of this I would look at the current situation be like I don't really know but that's how geopolitics works that's how politics and all of these nation-building things work no one knows for sure how it's happening as it happens these things are decided in the history books and I'm curious to see how this will be look back on in 10 years because people like to paint the fiction that this is gonna be the worst thing that ever happens the UK even if you're the most Pro you person in the world you know I think the EU isn't all bad which on the internet is eva is actually a controversial opinion to say if you read the comments they're gonna be very aus oh sorry cuz you know YouTube comments don't like the U at all I think that you does some good things but also think that there is potential for the UK outside of it but I don't know what that potential is right now and I hope that current UK government does but we don't know really anything still of that it's something we'd all discover at the same time and I hope you'll enjoy this video well we went over briefly how and why that works if you enjoyed it then you know it's the second channel you know throw me some bones yeah that sounds like I'm asking for money actually throw me some bones in the comments down below because if you're the sort of person who doesn't just type II USSR I'd like to read your comments because I'm gonna read so many of them and they're gonna make me lose faith in humanity restore my faith in humanity by typing a comment and if you won't seem all these videos subscribe or something I apparently make them on a regular schedule now this is a second channel don't care why do I make videos on a regular basis now I don't know it's the worst but I'll see you all in the next one goodbye

Channel: ibx2cat

Views: 313,263

Rating: 4.5392413 out of 5

Keywords:

Id: 0tv9Uf24CHU

Length: 22min 53sec (1373 seconds)

Published: Mon Jan 20 2020