Which Country Will Leave the EU Next? - Brexit Explained

and the beginning of last week we asked you which other countries you'd like to see make it to a tldr design sure we collated your votes and the winner was Germany if you want to pick up a German design t-shirt as well as our two other new designs then head over to our merch store where you can also find all of our other March including the order shirt [Applause] the German t-shirt is only available for one month so make sure you check out there's a link in the description welcome to another break State explain video today we're gonna look at whether the utter chaos and disagreement that surrounded brexit will discourage other countries from trying to leave the EU in case you haven't been watching our videos religiously or have just been hiding in a cave for the best part the last three years brexit has been a bit of a disaster regardless of whether you think we should leave or stay very few people have been happy with the process thus far this hasn't been helped by the fact that the UK starts on brexit implies a lot of contradictory things which has meant that surprise surprise it's been a bit of an omni shambles so in this video we'll be looking at whether this has discouraged other Euroskeptics countries from following suit before we dive in I should say that all polling on this topic is notoriously unreliable different polls say different even contradictory things so it's difficult to get an accurate or reliable sense of what a population thinks we have references for all other polls which we've used but just be wary because none of this is conclusive also it's impossible to prove any causal links between polling and brexit as always correlation does not equal causation just causes an increase in euro failure that coincides with brexit timing-wise doesn't necessarily mean everyone is so impressed with how the EU is handled brexit even though that could be a plausible explanation so as always take these stats with a pinch of salt so qualify other side what effect has brexit had on euro scepticism well according to e use biannual report known as the Eurobarometer it seems to have actually made other EU countries more pro-eu in 2016 when the brexit vote happened about 65 percent of people living in the EU said they identified as a citizen of the EU while 35 percent didn't in the most recent year a barometer report which came out in 20:18 more than 70 percent said they felt like an EU citizen well less than 30 didn't in 2016 only 34 percent of EU citizens said that they had a positive image of the EU in 2018 that's increased to 43 percent with a positive image equally in 2016 27 percent of EU citizens had a negative image of the EU which is now dropped to 20 percent I know that was just a barrage of numbers and stats but basically in the last two years since the referendum pro-eu sentiment has actually increased throughout Europe this is men than most people think the chances of another country leaving the EU has decreased in 2016 some 48 percent of EU citizens thought that another country would follow the UK out of the door this is subsequently fallen to 42 percent according to an applause Mori poll interestingly but it's actually think it's more likely that another country will follow according to the same applause polling 60% of brits think another EU country will leave soon compared to 48 percent who thought that in 2016 so if British people are right who could be the next person out of the door what we think the sort of four countries that could potentially make the leap Italy Hungary Sweden and Greece if you disagree with all this then comment down below and if your comment gets enough attention we might do a video on that particular countries chance of leaving anyway let's start with Italy Italy is currently under coalition government between the five star and League who are led by Luigi DeMaio and Matteo salvini respectively both have been vocal critics of the EU especially on immigration and austerity so it makes sense some commentators have pin them down as the next country to leave the EU in fact recently William Hill was offering pretty good odds of two to one on Italy be in the next country to leave the EU however it's worth noting that both de Mayo and salvini and salvini especially have actually ruled out in December saying we have no intention of leaving the EU we want to change it improve it but not abandon it it's not a popular opinion with the Italians either while they're more Euroskeptic the most according to a 2018 parla metre poll conducted by the EU only 24% of Italia would vote to leave the EU however this should be taken with a pinch of salt as the same poll found that only 35% of Brits motivate to leave which is suspiciously low another reason that's harder for Italy to leave is they use the Euro the return to lira would have massive short-term economic consequences knowing that TLDR is a proper economist but this would clearly cause a whole lot of economic disruption basically an Italian set doesn't look very likely right now but it's not impossible all right so on to the next country hungry hungry has been in the news a whole lot recently with its strongman president viktor orbán leader at the Fidesz party whose political system of choice is apparently a liberal democracy he's been a vocal critic of the --use migration policy and in 2018 the EU voted to deny Hungary its EU voting rights claiming then it was backsliding on European democratic values using legislation known as article 7 to take away Hungary's right to vote adding to this the Hungarian government is currently in a coalition between Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party who are also Euroskeptic so surely Hungary could be next well know basically while you're a skepticism is popular among politicians is definitely not popular amongst the a lecturer according to the same Parliament appalled we mentioned earlier only 17% of Hungarians would vote to leave the EU versus 61% who'd vote to stay a different poll conducted by Pew found that only 13% wanted to leave a major reason why hungry might not be keen to leave is that it receives more than 4.5 billion euros per year in EU contributions and only pays in 500 million euros this means that its net receipts are over 3.5 billion euros per year from the EU in a country with a relatively small GDP of 123 billion euros and a national budget of about 50 billion euros this is a massive amount of money it's getting from the EU which hungry won't want to give up so like a tally exit hunger except shouldn't happen not least because it's an unbelievably ugly portmanteau on to the next country Sweden Sweden has been a popular talking point especially in the American media touted as a case study the failures of democratic socialism according this narrative Sweden has taken on more migrants than it can handle and it's gone from a socialist utopia to a hellhole of violent crime and rape whether there's a causal relationship between immigration and violent crime rates is a whole separate video so like this video and comment below if you'd like us to do a video on that but whatever the case is the Swedish electorate has shifted right in the 2018 general election the Swedish Democrats a far right to Euroskeptic party became the third largest party in the Swedish parliament with seventeen point six percent of the total vote in their manifesto they pledged to hold a referendum on leaving the EU and blame the EU for the migrant crisis so is there any chance of this EU vote actually happening well again no the two largest parties in Sweden have committed to a policy of non-cooperation with the Swedish Democrats which means they're unable to force their referendum onto the agenda although the EU party got seventeen point six percent of the vote in the general election so even as one of the most euro philic countries around in fact 53 percent of Swedes have a positive image of the EU while only 11 percent have a negative image according to the most recent Eurobarometer Sweden also is the highest level of trust in the EU of all Member States say for some drastic turn around there's no chance of the SWAC see anytime soon on to the last big one Greece I know that lots of you already know about this but Greece is in the middle of a debt crisis there's a whole load of complicated economic reasons why but basically Greece owes EU a lot of money after they bailed them out of a sovereign debt crisis after 2017 financial crisis the various European authorities and private investors have loaned Greece a massive 320 billion euros and Greece expects to be paying this back until 2060 in 2015 Greece was actually planning on leaving the EU this comes down to economics and again we're not economists but we're gonna try and explain it anyway the plan was to leave the EU and return to the drachma as part of the eurozone Greece struggles to secure outside investment if you've got euros then you can spend them anywhere in the euro so it makes more sense to invest them in a company like Germany where the economy is strongest why spend them somewhere else however if Greece would return to the drachma the currents you'll be allowed to naturally devalue because people want Greek money less than German money the drachma would be allowed to fall until it was at a competitive rate the in theory this would make Greek exports more competitive and increase foreign investment however that will be a pretty steep devaluation the National Bank of Greece estimated that the drachma would fall by 65 percent this will make Greeks a heck of a lot poorer in the short term with some drastic consequences according to the same study unemployment would rise to about 33 percent and inflation would skyrocket 30 percent which would bring similarly high interest rates with a devalued currency and super high interest rates most Greeks would default on their mortgages and loans which will banks and lenders basically there's a lot of short-term pain and that probably explains why it's not the most popular position amongst either Greek politicians or Greek people or the Greek people no main parties are actually considering any more and while Greeks have a fairly negative image of the EU the majority 61% don't want to leave the Union the time for grexit has probably passed if it was ever gonna happen it would have happened already probably in 2015 when 61% at the Greek people voted in a referendum to reject the IMF bailout plans despite this vote the government went ahead with the bailout and Greece remained in EU so basically it doesn't look like anyone else is going to leave an EU any time soon however this might change once Britain's relationship is finally agreed once Britain's sorted out its relationship with the EU it provides another potential model for non EU countries alongside the Norwegian Turkish Swiss and Canadian models if this turns out to be an arrangement that other countries want like maybe securing some sort of single market access without the freedom of movement that it might tempt other EU countries to exit do you agree with our list do you think your country is likely to leave the EU sometime soon comment below to let us know and we might get on to it soon to be kept up to date with everything in the world of brexit make sure to subscribe to our channel you also follow us across our other social channels to be updated whenever we post exclusive content or articles you can find us by searching for TLDR news you

Channel: TLDR News

Views: 332,718

Keywords: Sweden, turkey, Greece, Italy, copy brexit, follow brexit, also leave, leave, exit, put off, discourage, scared, tldr news, tldr, brexit explained, explaining brexit

Id: 1qXXVsKZND4

Length: 11min 37sec (697 seconds)

Published: Mon Apr 22 2019

Reddit Comments

[u/nigelfarij]

Which Country Will Leave the EU Next?

The UK I think.

[u/derFruit]

The uk and then no one cuz brexit is a disaster

[u/GodOfDucks]

Whichever is allowed a vote by the EU. (I.e, nobody...)