Why has India's BJP lost its parliamentary majority? | Inside Story

[Music] he failed to get the sweeping majority he promised voters India's Narendra Modi will now have to join a coalition to form a government he has been accused of promoting divisive policies so what lesson has this vote really sent to his party and will there be change this is Inside Story [Music] hello welcome to the program I'm sirel vaner nendra Modi is expected to serve another term as prime minister of India but with a significantly reduced majority he will have to partner up with other parties to form the next government his governing BJP has failed to win a clear majority after a six- weekl long parliamentary election and with this setback many are now asking whether modi's strategy to reshape India has backfired we'll be discussing this further with our guests but a reminder before that that the Indian government has failed to give visas to alzer's correspondents to cover this story so we are reporting on this election from outside the country here's IPM gfood the celebrations were loud and triumphant the results not so much Prime Minister narandra Modi declared victory in India's general elections though his party lost its majority in this third term the country will write a new chapter of big decisions this is modi's guarantee guarantee but without a clear majority the governing BJP will have to join an alliance with political allies to reach the 272 seats needed to secure a third term Modi had aimed to grab 400 seats of the 543 member lower house instead his party fared worse than in the last two elections it seems like Modi got a shock we believe that his party workers were overconfident that's why they lost so many seats overid support from Modi saw a particular Drop In The crucial constituencies of utar Pradesh India's most populous [Music] state defying predictions the Congress party-led India Alliance made a comeback there a movement that governed India for decades after its Independence but lost to the BJP in 2014 and 2019 the alliance won 223 seats overall and described the results as a moral defeat for [Music] Modi the Prime Minister has led a divisive nationalist campaign targeting Muslims calling them infiltrators and erasing some of their Heritage this and discontent among the youth have been blamed for the bjp's setbacks unemployment has risen to 8.1% a jump from the 6% recorded pre pandemic according to figures from a private Think Tank some voters say the world's fastest growing major economy has left out many the public wanted to see a change because of the increasing inflation and unemployment which is why the voters gave the national Democratic Alliance a victory but with a strong opposition for a decade Narendra Mod's party and popularity seem to have an Unstoppable rise but after a 6-week election Marathon the 640 million ballots counted in a day delivered an an expected roadblock proof that the world's biggest democracy still has a lot to say it gfood Al jazer for Inside Story let's bring in our guests in Mumbai aif bamla a spokesperson for Indian is BJP joins us we'll be we're delighted to talk to you today in New Delhi valet Singh author of the book ioda City of Faith city of Discord and in New York Ravi agrawal editorinchief of foreign policy and author of India connected how the smartphone is transforming the world's largest democracy a warm welcome to you all uh Mr B I'll go to you first it's an odd day isn't it to be a BJP spokesperson because your party is the largest in India nobody's denying that but it it it fell so far short of of its own targets I was wondering what is your current level of disappointment and even concern honestly well let me tell you that there is no disappointment whatsoever I don't understand why our Victory is been shown as a loss yes I understand the expectation of the people of the country and of the world of us was definitely more than what we were supposed to We were supposed to pass our exams we we were supposed to pass our examinations with a 90% marks but we for unfortunately have got 75% but that's still falls in the distinction range but there are there are others who have got lesser than 100 Mark and they are celebrating that so I mean I don't understand this you know this the way they correlate the victory of a country yeah please explain you may better to explain me indan politics I think no uh sir I think you already know the answer this is all relative to expectations the expectations for the BJP were set by who they were set by your prime minister Narendra Modi a campaign slogan was this time go for 400 I beg your pardon I'm sure the translation isn't exact but you know the slogan I'm talking about go for 400 seats I'll just finish I'll just finish which is a super majority in Parliament right those were the expectations that's how high they were set they were set by Mr Modi himself okay and and okay obviously you you completely failed to meet that you in fact lost your absolute majority that's why I ask you question about disappointment no I will rebut this please if you give me a fair fair time we expected 400 and why should be it's always good to be optimistic okay certainly there was some shortcoming or there were there was some issues in terms of deliverables so the the the the the the people of the country has given us some mandate now when the people of this country mandate not the BJP they have not given the BJP a mandate they have maybe given the alliance mandate but the BJP can't govern alone it's obviously the alliance what is the what is the opposition the Congress is not even 100 they had quoted that they would get more than 300 just to Congress and they didn't even M man to manage to get 100 but no one is questioning them but the have managed to again it's relative to expectations they almost double the opposition almost doubled the number of seats nobody expected them to win so they did better than forecast the BJP did a lot less well than forecast so it's relative to expectations they therefore cast for their own party also was above 200 let me tell you this I don't know if you are you should have this introspection at your end but they also did not even manage to get uh 100 seats but it is nothing wrong if the Congress expects an X number of seat and if if it is got if it's done if it performed better we congratulate India for a plural for an economy we welcome a strong opposition and this is something with the Bara Jan party has always been asking for and let me tell you this is an alarm for the ban Jan party and we are going to start working this moment not from today from now and we will assure you that we will come back next time to power with much Bigg number and a much better evaluation that is something I can assure to you as a spokesperson under the leadership of honorable that's that's five years down the line so let's I'd rather talk about now and how we got to where we are um uh valet just just so we get this out of the way is there a scenario is there a universe because Narendra Modi has not yet been sworn in as the uh next prime minister where he isn't the leader of the BJP I think I mean it the politics is about possibilities so of course theoretically that possibility remains however it looks extremely unlikely that anybody else is going to be S as prime minister for the foreseeable future yeah okay um much of our discussion I think is is really going to be about how we got to this why was there a disappointing showing for the BJP because for uh 10 years Narendra Modi has seemed politically speaking bulletproof and now he isn't what's I understand there's probably a bouquet of reasons but Val on your end what would be the single biggest reason why the BJP has had a disappointing showing in these elections I think in uh we have to go region wise and if we focus on where the biggest dents have have come to the BJP from in this election that would be the of utar Pradesh that would be Maharashtra and they way below expectation performance in West Bengal in all these three states there is a common uh a common narrative I mean the the the fact that there was a serious belief among a lot of people that the constitution might be changed if the BJP gets 400 or anywhere close to it that I think did have an effect clearly besides this the bjp's certain schemes be the be the you know the shorten without any pension etc for people who join the Army it's called the AGN that also created a lot of resentment and concern among the youth in particular and and and this state of utar Pradesh is has been known as the nursery of of seys or soldiers for the Indian army and before that for the British Indian army so it's historically a place which has sending its sons and it you know children to to join armies and fight for the country at different borders that also has an effect and of course as people and your story also I mean I I can go down and list another three reasons but there's over confidence the sense that maybe you know this this this party thinks that it can do anything it's invincible and people generally do not like uh bragard so I would I would say put it like that that the three factors to my mind you've given us you've given us three big reasons here fear by Indian voters that the BJP would change the Constitution to the change they've made to uh recruitment into the military service so for context for our viewers uh this was what happened is that the government changed the rules of recruitment such that now soldiers are being recruited for a four-year term instead of what would ordinarily have been a lifelong two decade typically career which would have given them a lifelong salary and then a pension right so they can no longer count on that money and the third reason you gave us ENT if I'm here I'm paraphrasing you're saying hubris right political huis I'll take it over to Ravi how do the how does that sound to you is there anything you would add to that list to explain why the BJP lost so many seats so those are all uh good theories uh and as you pointed out there's a likely a bouquet of reasons that we could point to uh all of this in hindsight of course um you know this result is a bit of a surprise pollsters uh the BJP itself the opposition no one expected this outcome uh so the BJP has won the most number of seats but when is a win not a win when it's really subpar of expectations that's that's why we are where we are I want to linger on the point about overconfidence I think Modi in particular has built a real cult of personality around himself there's no doubt about that he likened himself to a god um I think there are limits to how that kind of popular appeal um plays out over time and when you take a step back from not just the here and now it is undeniably um a big accomplishment to come back to power for a third time uh to put that in context hasn't been done since 1962 but we may also be reverting to the mean of Indian politics since the 1980s most Indian governments have actually been Coalition governments Modi in a sense was an aberration over the last 10 years and it would have been very hard to continue that trend for too much longer I mean many of us were surprised that it went on as long as it did and we're searching for reasons for his popularity so in some senses this could be a reversion to the mean there are many sort of structural challenges that India faces that you know Modi has struggled to deal with unemployment is quite high as your reporter mentioned youth unemployment in particular I'll point to as something that is very high at about 15% higher than India's peers average incomes are still quite low there's a a mismatch between a lot of the campaign rhetoric for example when Modi talks up the fact that India is the world's fifth biggest economy it could become the third biggest economy in the next decade that sounds great but what does it mean for the average Indian who's making $25,000 a year which is the the average income in the country it doesn't translate to much I mean still they're going to want to know how they can put food on the table they're going to want to understand how they deal with inflation which has been running High and those are genuinely challenging questions not just for Modi but for any politician in India so in some senses I think we can see this vote as a bit of a reality check on a leader and a party which has been very dominant for a decade and under any circumstances would have struggled to continue that for longer but maybe also their divisive polarizing rhetoric some of which really reached unprecedented levels in the last few weeks this could also and should also be seen as a rebuke to that and I hope the BJP including our spokesperson who's on this panel will approach uh the results with some more humility uh to try and recalibrate how they govern especially with a coalition which is going to require Modi to be a lot more Nimble a lot more consultative a lot more collaborative than he has ever been okay well let's put those things to him as if actually before I do that I wanted to ask you about the state that you're in aif because Maharashtra as valet was telling us is one of those states where the BJP collapsed one of those you know big areas that the BJP lost and that came as a surprise he listed that along with utar Pradesh and West Bengal you're in Maharashtra what do you think the BJP did wrong in that state well uh uh you know we uh we had an alliance of three parties normally the BJP is was accomplished to have a two-party Alliance System but unfortunately last time when we fought with the Shiva we won the we won the people's mandate with an absolute majority government but we uh but the duling Alli who fought with us with with with a joint Coalition apparently ditched us and join forces with the other with the on the other side of the fence but that's okay that's purely this choice so we were left high and dry and in that situation that government could not continue because they had their own Rumblings within themselves because they had their own it was a dynastic issue between both those parties there and then there was a virtal split in both those parties so we had to ensure that Maharashtra had to run so we took the the leftover group from both the parties and we ran the government and apparently there was some flaws in the adjustment and the compatibility between that much time of uh of about about just a year and a half or so and that is what has resulted for today our leader has himself has himself has declared to resign and work in the interest of the development of the party CER and and and resign as the face of the party for for the moment jump in here so so you're saying that essentially you were left hanging by potential Coalition Partners who defected from the Coalition but doesn't that in that case if that was the if you had that problem in Maharashtra aren't you concerned you might have that problem on a national level because as we speak as we record this show Narendra Modi is having to negotiate the terms of a coalition government with uh Telugu desan that's TDP and jdu jadal United and they've said yes we are with uh we are with uh the BJP but at least one of those parties TDP was until a few weeks ago with your Rivals so you know if you've had an example on a local level where the Coalition didn't work does that give you pause on a national level what that might mean over the next 5 years well we are very positive because this is not the first time we've gone into an alliance in the past now this is uh the 11th year we entering in uh and we've we've fed very fairly well with all our alliance Partners this was a Fallout and and I'm sure even they after the Fallout are repenting and and they would also reju it back but let me tell you don't forget that this is the worst case scenario for the btia Jan party with 245 and the best case scenario for the congress with just 99 so still they boo booing and question trying to we're trying to project that that we are we we Victorious and we have to prove our point on channels like this so I don't see why this why this narrative and why are you forgetting that two states arunachal Pradesh and Orissa where we poison to form the government for the first ever time no one is giving us that credit for that so what we what are a good good is is been overlooked the good for the goods we are we are being overlooked for the goods that that have happened with the party we've got two more states which we never ever had anywh anytime in the past so nobody to here's what's happening right now here's what's happening right now nobody's trying to take away credit from the BJP what we are trying to do is learn the lessons from this election and you've had quite a bit of talking time and you haven't offered up a single reason why in your view the BJP has lost Steam and as long as you keep doing that we're going to butt heads because the political reality is that the PJP had 10 years ago 282 seats in Parliament right then 303 5 years ago and now back down to 240 right far fewer than it had even at the beginning of Mr Mod's rise there needs to be an explanation for that and there needs to be some kind of Reckoning and accountability and that's basically what I'm asking I understand that I understand where you come from and the party itself of course post The Honorable prime minister takes over see this these are evaluations and permutations and combinations of our shortcomings which we which we certainly have expressed that there has been certain shortcomings that's what I'm asking you what is the number one shortcoming that now let me submit that those shortcomings India is a was country every state has a different demographic a different language a different ability give me just one shortcoming that's all I'm asking for that you acknowledge and that you wish the BJP will do better in over the next five years just one no V uh somehow I as an individual felt that uh on the basis of the deliverables that were there on the past 10 years we had expected a lot from our people and with the alliances that we made Statewide our original party leaders and Kars were deprived of them getting seats and uh uh and and to be given justice so maybe that is some reason which which the party is trying to analyze and rework to ensure that people who have given their their blood and their life for the party they should be looked at first rather than to to to you know give more importance to the new incumbent leaders of the party is something which the party is we call it as a man in in our language in in in in India we call these are monthon sessions these are sessions where we sit to introspect but speak we started we have even started acting on it in Maharashtra itself the state chief Mr dender fit has offered to resign now in this very moment while I'm talking to you you can you can check on the Mahar TV so it's not that as I said we are have to work harder not from today from this moment okay you're answering me in terms of there there's a lot of sort of electoral calculations uh we were having prior to that a conversation that had to do more with policy which is really what I'm interested in and I think what that's what I want to leave viewers with um Val you wrote this book uh aoda city of Faith city of Discord can you there's a whole backstory to it the ram Temple that was built there and that was inaugurated earlier this year by Narendra Modi it was a great TV show it's also where he started his campaign can you and and crucially um that seat that encompasses that area aoda where where the temple is that seat was just lost by the BJP can you explain to us that story I'm I'm afraid I need you to keep it brief in and how it relates to these elections in fact uh I would say that story in a sense along along with another holy city which is of Varanasi from where the prime minister is a candidate he's been elected so let me just also remind and inform our viewers that in that seat the margin of victory has come down quite a lot for the prime minister himself and that is a point to be noted uh coming to aoda you know where the Prime Minister has sort of singularly uh hog the Limelight the spotlight in every event right from the bricklane to the inauguration earlier this year it has been the Prime Minister as the sort of there's only one person and they have also projected him as somebody who brought Lord Ram to aoda uh and that also did not go down well the uh it is also interesting that the the the the the the the fear that the constitution could be changed and the reservation for um you know marginalized sections could be removed that fear has played a big role in the bjp's losing aoda after after I think two three terms so which is over 15 years which is a huge thing and when uh therefore aodha fad that seat comprises of more than 50% of dalits Muslims and other back classes and what BJP has tried to do with aodha and using Ram Mand and Lord Ram is to consolidate the Hindu vote bank which they have managed to do and you know for two terms in several State elections they've done that Hindus have voted for BJP here in aoda what has happened is that Hindus have shifted whether the obcs or the dalits or whatever and this is also something that that the BJP will will do well to actually look into why they have lost a and why the question will not be taken to other parts of the country that what you know if they have lost aoda there must be good reason for it this divisive Politics the alienation of locals uh you know the the whole revamp of the Town led to local resentment against the BJP there was no Forum to really address their grievances people lost their homes uh in the name of development and so on so there was there were multiple local factors but somewhere I would also like to say that uh the opposition party the Congress had coined this very famous slogan which essentially translated to that you know uh we are here to open a open a sort of you know to basically let love come back flourish in this Marketplace of hate and they campaigned Rahul Gandhi went around the country during his you know different yatras and he campaigned on this slogan and that I think has been uh Vindicated by the results of aoda and in some sense and the this whole region where the Congress has managed to win and the the other opposition party the state based party is also managed to win the BJP losing 30 States in their uh they also like to call it their double engine government because there's a BJP government at the state and the BJP government the center despite all of that all of that why did they lose aoda I'll swing it to Ravi for what I think is going to be the last answer because we don't have a ton of time left on the on the discussion raavi did the you touched on divisive politics uh and valet kind of also obliquely touched on it by saying with the aoda example that the BJP was trying to consolidate the Hindu vote right I'm wondering whether they also didn't achieve whe they they didn't also consolidate the Muslim vote against them and this connects to your divisive politics argument didn't this end up backfiring in as much as the results aren't what they would have wanted perhaps you could say so if they had purely Consolidated the Hindu vote that would have been enough for them to win by the way because Hindus comprise 80% of the country's population the BJP only needs half of all Hindus to vote for them and they basically win in Landslide even that didn't happen what that tells me is that some of the rhetoric was perhaps a step too far even for Hindus so when prime minister Narendra Modi calls Muslims infiltrators which I really think was a step Way Beyond even he has gone in the past an awful term to use to make Muslims in India citizens of India feel disenfranchised feel like this isn't their Homeland an awful thing to say I think that must have resonated with Hindus as well who must have felt like this is a step too far um so in that sense I think we have to see in that light there are many things that the BJP could have done differently it still is likely going to be the party in power but hopefully we'll enter a period of introspection for them and India needs a strong opposition wherever your politics might lie whether it's with the BJP or with the congress party or anywhere else India needs a strong opposition and it needs to be Democratic democracy has been challenged in this country over the last decade and in a sense one way to look at this vote is the people saying that they count and not Pauls and not a prime minister telling them that he's going to win in the landslide all right I I want to thank this conversation could have been longer but thank you very much to all our guests for the time you've given us today we really appreciate it ASF bam Val Singh and Ravi agrawal thank you two for watching you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website als.com and for further discussion go to our Facebook page that's facebook.com/ AJ insidestory you can also join the conversation on X our handle at AJ inside story from me sah vaner and the entire team here in Doha bye for now [Music]

Channel: Al Jazeera English

Views: 117,196

Keywords: Al Jazeera, BJP, BJP alliance, BJP loses majority in big setback, Bharatiya Janata Party, India Election 2024, India National Congress party, India elections 2024, Modi claims victory, Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi, coalition politics return to India, election 2024, india elections, india opposition alliance, india opposition parties, lok sabha, lok sabha elections 2024, mandate on Modi, opposition alliance makes a comeback, political shake up in India

Id: J-FLORGDGl4

Length: 28min 30sec (1710 seconds)

Published: Wed Jun 05 2024