Why Germany Had to Start the War

why did Germany and Austria actually go to war in 1914 the response that every school boy can give of course is the assassination of France Ferdinand in June and Austria's subsequent ultimatum to Serbia whom they accused of having sponsored The Butchery but as you all know this is not a satisfactory explanation both Berlin and Vienna understood a war against Serbia would almost certainly bring in the Russians and thus trigger the great European cataclysm that both of these powers dreaded as much as everyone else both Empires military strategists were famously pessimistic about their chances in such a war so why start one they had a good chance of losing I want to propose that one solution is to look at the Grand strategic chess board in 1914 where the Germans and austrians thought it would go in the near future and why this finally made them willing to risk a European conflict Europe since 1894 had been divided into two compet in Alliance systems France and Russia on one hand Germany Austria and Italy on the other Britain had held aloof before tentatively joining the Paris Petersburg Block in 1904 theoretically this formed a rough balance of power on the continent but for much of the period the geopolitical realities were very different from 1905 the Triple Alliance was in the ascendant Russian power had been severely weakened by its defeat at the hands of Japan that year and the internal revolutions that followed France's sudden isolation meant to Britain fearful of unchecked German power Drew closer to Paris so as to prop them up in the equation when Berlin tested the waters at first Morocco London's Firm support for France combined with the French army 75s meant they recoiled from provoking a war over Colonial squabbles instead the Triple Alliance used Russian weakness to score diplomatic victories the most bombastic IC of which was Austria's annexation of Bosnia in 1908 a province it already occupied but was claimed by Serbia a def facto Russian client feeling cheated out of what was initially proposed as a quidd pro quo for access to the strait Petersburg squealed and it took a German threat of War to force their climb down as stated what's interesting is that gains such as this if we can call changing the legal status of an obscure Balkan Province at the cost of infuriating Russia and getting bailed out by Germany again is that they were diplomatic rather than military victories despite Russia's weakness Germany in particular hesitated over ever pushing matters to the point of War it did of course threaten it against Russia in 1909 but despite the favorable military circumstances remained reluctant to actually force a conflict indeed they did more than hesitate in 1912 as Serbia expanded in the Balkan Wars a fearful Austria watching its influence in the region arode seriously floated proposals for allying with Bulgaria to crush Belgrade though there was still a dove party in Vienna at this point led by France Ferdinand that Europe did not stumble into war in 1912 or 13 was largely because of Germany refusing to countenance an Austrian war that could bring in the Russians they did not abandon their Ally completely supporting what they thought were Fair Austrian goals such as blocking the serbs from getting a Bas on the Adriatic but Germany refused to let Vienna actually start the water it wanted why then did this position change why in 1914 did Germany allow Austria to have its War knowing there was a serious possibility of Russian intervention firstly I think it's helpful to consider Austria's strategic situation the Habsburg problem was that their place in the European system was collapsing the empire was infamously a multiethnic one with Germans and magard ruling over minorities including Italians slaves and Romanians unfortunately for Vienna these three ethnic groups all had National homelands directly bordering them now at the turn of the century this did not seem like a major problem in 1905 for example Serbia had been weak Italy remained a relatively firm part of the Triple Alliance and the hoen zolen king of Romania was personally committed to the ostrog German block by 1914 the situation was very different Serbia had doubled in size and was planning to expand its Army rapidly the quartermaster General told the Russians that by 1918 they would be able to field 500,000 well-trained and equipped troops Italy was still technically a part of the Triple Alliance but the habsburgs determined as ever to step on as many rakes as possible had repeatedly snubbed them over the previous decade in 1913 Rome had made its position clear by very firmly condemning any potential war against Serbia Italy's relations with France were not exactly spectacular either but the country was clearly moving towards the onon camp even Romania was now tied to Austria only by the Aged King Carol the Crown Prince was married to an anglo-russian princess and much friendlier to the unun Hungarian attempts to magur eyes their Romanian minority had also deeply alienated public opinion in Bucharest when King Carol died the country would inevitably swing into the Russian sphere it's when one begins to look at this burgeoning catastrophe on the map that you can understand Habsburg pessimism they very very nearly lost as it was in 1914 against a Serbia still recovering from the Balkan Wars a neutral Italy and Romania and a Russia that had not yet completed the great program I want to deal with Russia later but let's just look at what Austria would have been facing elsewhere so Serbia's expansion meant the austrians might have actually needed the Army group potior briefly siphoned off in 1914 against them the possibility of a hostile Romania also serves as a double blow even if they did not formally join the onton literally just the possibility of them doing so is a devastating change in 1914 Austria deployed absolutely squat to the border and relied on Carol's word Russia by contrast deployed six admittedly rather weak from what I can find divisions after Carol's death this situation would have reversed and the austrians would have had to C up basically a new Army while St Petersburg could have withdrawn theirs in 1914 Conrad estimated that if the Romanians joined with Serbia Montenegro and Russia the Central Powers would face 128 divisions against their 62 finally as the onon grew in strength there's every chance Italy would have hitched it self more firmly to this wagon the high-handedness of Austria in Germany's relations with Rome was a particularly bizarre feature of the pre-war World although the Germans despised the Italian Army it was supposed to play a crucial role in the schen plant sending three cores to the German left wing and attacking across their own border indeed had they actually joined in 1914 and pinned the French army of the Alps as expected the Germans would have won instead because apparently pretending to like Italians was too much trouble even for the sake of European domination Rome sat back when war came and Joff was able to move his Alpine divisions to the mar now Austria Hungary was absolutely not a basket case in 1914 its economy was strong and the monarchy was very stable but there was simply no approach the Empire could realistically take to counter all of these burgeoning threats the military was always underfunded anyway because of ering between the Austrian and Hungarian governments and there was no sign of it changing soon in reality the only solution was that at which FR Ferdinand seemed to be fumbling his way towards namely the habsburgs were going to have to swallow their pride and cut a deal with the Russians over the Balkans that would have heavily favored Petersburg this was of course anathema to the likes of Burke told and Conrad so what I hope I'm showing here is a picture of why Vienna felt so desperate in 19 194 when someone is backed into a corner they are very likely to fight France ferdinand's assassination gave Austria casus belli and allowed them to gain the German approval they always knew they needed for a war to destroy Serbia in truth there was nothing particularly unique about resorting to military action to subdue a strategic threat the British had done so against the BS the Italians against the Turks the French to an extent in Morocco when the Russians had attempted it with Japan the difference with Serbia was of course that it would likely trigger the great European war and so for all its Bluster the Germans always stopped short of agreeing to such a campaign why then having rejected Austrian plans in 1912 and 13 did the Germans approve in 1914 again I think the Strategic context can provide some insight as stated from 1905 great power interactions revolved around the basic fact of Russia weakness this does not imply the Germans thought Russia was helpless but what it does mean is that the Triple Alliance had more freedom of action in international Affairs 1911 saw this change dramatically the major reforms Russia had implemented after the Japanese war from Land tenure and labor rights to Railroad Administration all started to bear fruit combined with further loans from France and a period of excellent Harvest Russia had an extremely healthy balance of trade with rapidly growing State revenues this in turn financed what became known as the great program a major expansion of both the Army Navy and rail network in 1914 the Russians still took 26 days to fully mobilize their armies compared to 16 for Austria and just 12 for Germany but from 1917 Russian mobilization times would have been fast enough to allow for an invasion of East Prussia and potentially cesia within the first weeks of the war this strategic reality completely canceled out the schen plan as everybody knows the scheme called for Berlin to send 78s of its Army West turn the French flank and crush them against the German border within 6 weeks he relied entirely on making use of Germany's fast and Russia's slow mobilization times the great program thus completely overturned German strategic assumptions this really cannot be emphasized enough all of Germany's hopes are based basically undone by Russia's rearmament you can see how much it unsettled them with the 1913 Army bill which raised their peacetime standing army from 136,000 to 890,000 men to be clear Germany was an immensely powerful country he could both afford this increase and increase it yet further if needed but this did not change the inescapable reality that the assumptions the schan plan rested upon would soon be Obsolete and so again I think one can see how at least for the militarist faction in Berlin the walls seem to be closing in around them oh but Germany can just stay on the defensive in the west and divert its main armies East well the Germans thought this was such a bad idea they suspended planning on it in 1912 going east throws away Germany's two best hopes of winning this war namely its mobilization speed and tactical superiority if the Germans were to reroute East the Russians would happily bog them down down in Poland and draw Berlin into the long War almost no one on either side of the fence thought it could win that is even of the Western Front holds in this scenario which the Germans were also not confident about now in reality we know that everybody underestimated how effective entrenched defensive Firepower would be before World War I we also know that Germany could sustain operations in a long War but what I'm trying to show is that the Germans themselves did not think this way in 194 it seemed all the advantages of a long War were with the UN taunt this basically then is the thesis of this video Germany and Austria saw their strategic position in Europe collapsing and could not find any realistic way of assuaging their deine mker the chief of the German general staff thought 1914 was the last year they could contemplate a war against Russia that summer seemed to offer the best set of circumstances Germany would have for a while the widening of the Keel Canal had just been completed allowing them to use the high seas Fleet for example and the Army Bill had come into effect to be clear this is not an argument that the war was premeditated nor does it mean the decision makers in Berlin thought the July crisis had to lead to War what I am arguing though is that the Strategic situation shows why figures in Germany who had previously always served as a stabilizing force in the European system when it came to the crunch was suddenly willing to risk a conflict in 1914 we can of course debate whether the situation really was so dire for Germany and Austria Russian historians like Dominic leeven have argued its booming economy would not have lasted it came out of a rather specific set of circumstances and its strong balance of trade for example had begun to deteriorate likewise there are arguments that the whole Russian government was on Rocky ground by 1914 evidenced by the massacre at lonard goldfields and increasing strike movement Russian political and economic history isn't really my area of Interest so I can't make any informed judgment here internationally though the Anglo Russian agreement was also shaky as the two clashed over the fate of Persia and certainly some Scholars like Christopher Clark have suggested it wouldn't have been renewed in 1950 personally although I've made videos sympathetic to this view previously I've increasingly come to see this as du ous in the British foreign office the likes of Nicholson and Crow were still either anti-german or pro- Russian and in Petersburg sazanov was genuinely an angli file the Persian question was basically made up of misunderstandings but both Powers still saw the need to work together in the region whatever the case with the benefit of hindsight it's possible to argue there were still opportunities for bulling in Vienna but of course what's important is not our view but that of the German and Austrian foreign officers and their views were exceptionally dire I don't claim this is the solution to the origins of the first world war not by a long way the conflict has many fathers of course but I do think the international situation can give us an insight into why those fateful decisions were made in 1914 e

Channel: Old Britannia

Views: 332,244

Keywords: German Empire, WWI, Austrian Empire, War, Military History, First World War, British Empire, Franco-Russian Alliance, France, French Empire, Balkan Wars, Schlieffen Plan, Germany WWI

Id: onTLq5XaJuo

Length: 16min 4sec (964 seconds)

Published: Sun Apr 28 2024