Armed, unmanned and high tech
drones or remotely piloted aircraft are becoming a
ubiquitous battlefield presence. And frankly, I think we're in
the middle of an underground drone arms race and larger
drones like the mq nine Reaper, as well as medium sized drones
such as the Turkish TB two and the Chinese wing loonged II have
become a must have item for militaries worldwide. At the
moment we've seen we see like over 100 states worldwide are
using military drones and that number is growing significantly
in Libya, Nagorno Karabakh, and during the US Global War on
Terror. armed drones have been active across the globe. These
drones can fly 1000s of feet high and rain down destruction
with pinpoint accuracy with little warning. But who makes
these high tech weapons of war? It is not very easy to develop
armed drones but it also is not quite as difficult as say
developing new nuclear weapons. And who is buying them. Drone technology isn't that new.
During World War Two the US remotely piloted A B 17 as part
of a test program and during the Cold War drones were used to spy
on other countries. The SR-71 even had a rocket powered drone
that it could deploy in flight to take photos to be retrieved
later. Drones date back much longer to early flight but like
the modern drones basically trace their origin to the 80s.
The convergence of satellite technology composites and
computer miniaturization allowed for the rise of drones like the
General Atomics mq one predator. General Atomics, which includes
ga aeronautical Systems Inc, are one of the leading producers of
unmanned systems in the world. They currently produce the mq
nine Reaper as well as the naval version, the sea Guardian among
other unmanned systems. In the 2000s. The predator was armed
with missiles, which quietly started a new arms race. It had
the ability to stay overhead for long periods of time, and it
could be controlled by a ground station in another country. The
drone became the face of us conflicts in the Middle East.
And moral and legal questions about drone use rose from the
targeted killing campaigns that the US operates to this day. In
2001, the mq nine Reaper made its first flight and eventually
became the dominant arm drone that the US fielded. The Reaper
has a payload of 3850 pounds, which compares to the predators
450 pounds. This means it can carry far more missiles or bombs
than the predator among other advantages. But what will
eventually replace the hundreds of Reaper drones has yet to be
revealed. One current General Atomics aeronautical project as
seen in this General Atomics video is the Avenger the US
military has not adopted the Avenger for frontline service.
The advanced drone is designed to be stealthy and survivable
against modern air defenses, which could make it a window
into what the drone of the future will look like that
replaces the mq nine, the US government the US military will
never fight another war without drone technology ever again. But
unfortunately, I feel like as a whole, we are no longer have the
advantage. countries around the world have taken notice of the
investment the US is pouring into larger drones. And they've
made efforts to buy these game changing drones themselves. The US has been judicious about
what countries that allows General Atomics to sell to. We
have put too much of an emphasis on restricting exports to
countries that are in need of this technology countries that
are friendly to us because we've wanted to maintain that airspace
dominance. The mq nine requires a ground station satellite links
and maintenance for its high tech hardware and software. And
this means the mq nines ballooning price point of around
$32 million has dissuaded some perspective buyers allies like
Australia have shown interest in buying the mq nine B and the US
State Department cleared a $1.6 billion deal in late April for
12, Sky guardians and all associated equipment but the
demand for more affordable drones hasn't subsided, leading
to others filling the needs of the market. What's interesting
to note is that for many years, about a decade or so before, the
US and Israel basically had a monopoly over more sophisticated
armed drone systems. And neither of them were really keen on
exporting, Israel was one of the earliest adopters of drone
technology and also one of the first exporters' however these
exported drones are generally unarmed, making them less useful
against military targets. And partly because there was this
almost export ban. A number of other actors started to develop
their own domestic armed drones, most notably China and Turkey.
China's Chengdu aircraft industry group has produced the
wing loong series of drones. The price point of the wing long to
which runs an estimated one to $2 million has made it up Popular addition to militaries
in Africa and the Middle East, Russia is likely to try to
eventually export its homegrown Orion drone, and Turkey which
has made a strong push in recent decades to build an aerospace
industry has produced one of the most infamous medium sized
drones. The Baykar defense produced TB2 to which is
controlled by line of sight has made an impact in Nagorno
Karabakh and in Libya. Several countries including Ukraine,
which signed a $69 million contract for armed TB2s in 2019
have ordered the Turkish drone, and more potential buyers could
be wooed by the highlight reel of the TB2 taking our modern
tanks in real world situations. These highlight reels of
destruction haven't been all upside for the new entry to the
armed drone market. Some armed drones have been
regulated as missiles under international law. I think our
policymakers need to adapt the policy for the 21st century and
understand that there's many different actors using drone
technology and they're using them in different ways. The
Missile Technology Control Regime or mtcr restricts the
export of missiles capable of carrying a 500 kilogram payload
at least 300 kilometers. This is why some drones are considered
missiles under the mtcr. The US has previously limited what
drones can be sold to other countries due to the mtcr. Sort
of the big drone export news changed last summer when the Trump administration
decided to loosen some restrictions on what the United
States could expert the Biden administration has so far upheld
that relaxed restriction Canada and Germany are two countries
that have banned the export of key materials used to make armed
drones in Turkey and Iran respectively. In the end, drones
are just you know, model airplanes with great sensors on
them. And all of these are, you know, dual use and simply used
in the civilian realm. And in fact, the drones have risen
enormously in the civilian realm over the last five to 10 years.
And so so controlling their export is is really difficult.
And I would also note that it is not that difficult to to develop
these systems. What happens when everyone can buy a quadcopter or
a fixed wing drone for a couple 100 bucks. Some manufacturers of
non military drones have put in safeguards, like geo fencing to
prevent drones from being weaponized. geo fencing is a
preset limitation on where drone can be flown. airports are
commonly fenced off to prevent drones from interfering with
airport operations. Civilian drones can also be used for all
kinds of really helpful applications from agricultural
use to checks and controls etc. So how do you control those
kinds of things, there are also concerns about the ethical
problems with using armed drones. So for example, the
large scale drone campaign started by bush and expanded
under Obama. We saw the increased use of
armed drones for targeted executions and increasing
numbers of civilians who were killed in those kind of
operations who didn't have any access to accountability and in
reparations, because technically the program didn't exist. Large armed drones aren't going
away. Bayker is working on a larger drone called the Akinci
which can be satellite controlled and has a larger
payload. China also appears to be working towards fielding a
newly developed armed drone. But advances in technology are
allowing smaller drones to tackle missions that previously
would have only been possible with a larger drone. So when I
see conflicts, like what's taking place in Syria, or with
Russia, starting to use these all over the world, and not even
just the type of drones that you would think are multimillion
dollar drones, we're talking about drones that a kid can
purchase off of the Internet, and anyone that has savvy
knowledge of how to turn these things into deadly weapons has
the ability. Unfortunately, these days to do something bad
with it. Drone swarms are dozens or hundreds of drones operating
in unison that can overwhelm defenses. And loitering
munitions like the Herot which is produced in Israel are
blurring the line between cruise missile and drone and with
regard to geese, loitering munitions or camicazi, drones or
whatever you want to call them. These are primarily at this
point produced by Israel. Both are systems that basically go
into the air they they loiter for a while, search for a target
and then dive into the car to target and explode with it. This
is why they're called Kamikaze drones because they you know,
they don't come back they they destroy themselves new types of
armed drones, potential civilian casualties and the legal gray
area of targeted killings are all issues that the drone
industry will need to contend with in the coming years. The
biggest challenge at the moment, how does technology which is
always two steps ahead of regulation, how can we ensure
that it doesn't get out of hand
Still don’t know how we plan on buying multi million dollar su-30s in the future when we can buy a bunch of those Chinese drones instead