Why China is Shrinking VERY Fast

2022 is a year that will go down in history is one of the most significant of the entire 21st century for many reasons but one of the biggest reasons was that 2022 marked the very first time in more than 300 years the China ceased being the world's most populous country according to official Chinese State data that was released this year 2022 marked the first time in more than 60 years that the Chinese population actually recorded a decline the first decline since the depths of the great Chinese famine back in 1960 and 61 that claimed the lives of tens of millions in 2022 China's population decreased by around 850 000 people and it is now primed to continue decreasing every single year for the next several decades more to come a fact that will profoundly change and influence the kind of world that we all live in after Decades of time spent narrowing the Gap India finally officially emerged as the world's newest most populous country just a few months ago in April of 2023 a title that will likely continue holding over China for the rest of the 21st Century going forward as the Indian population continues to grow while China's continues to shrink in less than 40 years from now by 2060 India's population has projected to further accelerate towards the 1.7 billion people Mark before finally stabilizing and Contracting slightly by the end of the century meanwhile China's first year of population declined in 2022 Herald's only the beginning of a decades-long process in which the Chinese population will historically speaking begin rapidly declining in less than 30 years from now by 2050 China's population is very likely to lose somewhere between 100 and 200 million people from where it's at today and by the end of the century in 2100 China's population May decline from the 1.41 billion it still is today to as few as only 800 million representing what will be nothing less than the quickest population decline of any civilization in human history by that point the Chinese population may only be around half the size of India's end of century protected population of around 1.5 to 1 0.6 billion today in 2023 the Chinese population still accounts for around 18 of the entire human population and for centuries now at least dating back to the 1700s nearly one in five humans on the planet have consistently found themselves in China a fact that has given every Chinese government for hundreds of years now a tremendous amount of influence in global Affairs through sheer size just for the sake of context there are more people alive in China right now than in all of Europe North America and Australia combined but if the United Nations population projections for China hold to 2100 when China's population is expected to decline to as few as only 800 million there might be a new world very soon in which the Chinese population entering into the 22nd century will only account for less than eight percent of the worldwide human population a fact that'll significantly weaken China's demographic influence clout insane Global Affairs like it has never seen before but for Beijing the future looks a lot worse than even this initially all suggests while China's population enters into a long period of decline starting now the population of China's primary geopolitical rival the United States is likely to only continue growing the same U.N population projections estimated that by the end of the 21st century America's population will probably increase from the present to somewhere around 400 million which by then will only be around half of China's 800 million this will be a completely different reality than the one we have today where China and America's populations are each in completely separate leagues wherein China is roughly four and a quarter times the population base of the United States giving China a significant advantage in Manpower fit for military service and available workers to labor and Manufacturing and factory jobs but by the end of the century this massive demographic Advantage the China currently enjoys over the United States today will almost certainly diminish significantly and doubly so when you factor in the rest of America's Military Allies in NATO and key East Asian allies like Japan South Korea Taiwan plus Australia yeah this American lead Alliance structure already today in 2023 has a population of around a billion people living within it which is about 70 percent of China's total population right now in the event of a conflict between China and every single one of those countries today China still holds all on its own the advantage and available manpower to pull from many countries in the American Alliance Network are facing steep population declines as well like Japan South Korea Italy and many others but others like the United States Australia Canada and France are continuing to grow and are expected to keep growing ultimately meaning that the U.S led Alliance Network in North America Europe Oceania and East Asia is likely to keep its combined population more or less consistent throughout the 21st century and that means that at some point in the near-ish future not too much after the year 2050. the american-led Western Alliance network will collectively begin approaching the total number of citizens in available Manpower that China has under its control tilting the demographic advantage over to Washington side in addition to Washington's pre-existing advantages in military technology hardware and finances this realization that from now on China's population base will be shrinking through the rest of the 21st century will have profound influences and impacts on both China and America's foreign policies and geopolitical events going forward especially as the People's Republic weighs on its ability and ideal time scale to successfully conduct a military invasion of Taiwan Beijing now realizes that his demographic window of opportunity to exact its desire changes upon the world order like establishing firm political control over Taiwan is limited and beginning to close shut and will almost certainly completely shuttle together by the early 2030s next decade a fact that implies that if the People's Republic really is going to invade Taiwan the best opportunity for them to do so will be either before that window closes shut for good or never at all it suggests that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will most likely happen within the next eight years from when this video releases or it will never happen at all so how did China even get itself in into this situation and what will be the world's fastest shrinking population since it has been the world's most populous country for so long ever since the era of the Qing dynasty in China in the early 1700s China has continually been the home of the world's largest population but for a period of roughly four decades between 1911 and 1948 China faced significant internal and external crises and pressures that kept the population from growing very quickly as the Western world was industrializing and growing rapidly in 1911 a revolution toppled the centuries-old Qing Dynasty and suddenly overthrew more than 2 000 years of Imperial rule in China what had constituted China was quickly catapulted into nearly Universal chaos as ethnically separate regions of the Qing Dynasty like Mongolia and Tibet declared their independence while several aspiring Warlords Rose to local power across much of the rest of the country all as the central government calling itself the Republic of China was increasingly failing to maintain its control and Authority then the Chinese Communists led by Mao Zedong rose up and began fighting a decade's law long Civil War with the Republic of China's government in 1927. a devastating Civil War that was massively interrupted when the Japanese decided to take advantage of China's internal chaos by invading and biting off Manchuria in 1931 before launching a full-scale invasion of Conquest across the whole of China in 1937 that would last until 1945 and claim the lives of somewhere around 20 million people during that Invasion the Republic of China's government and the Communists briefly set aside their civil war to fight together against the Japanese but after it was concluded in 1945 the Civil War almost immediately resumed for another four years until 1949 when the Communists finally emerged mostly Victorious and proclaimed the People's Republic of China over the mainland that we know today while the Republic of China's government retreated to the island of Taiwan where it also remains in control to this day no peace agreement or Armistice between them has ever been signed and so the civil war between them continues on paper to this day with a Communists on the main land claiming the island of Taiwan is a rogue province of China that they are the legal government of and with the Republic of China on Taiwan officially claiming that all of the Mainland are a series of Rogue provinces of China that they are the legal government of both governments recognize Taiwan as a core province of their idea of China they just both disagree on who should be the rightful government of China after the People's Republic of China invaded Tibet in 1950 and then annexed it to 1951. the country emerged with its presently recognized shape after almost exactly 40 years worth of continuous Wars and conflicts waged across the whole of China that probably collectively claimed the lives of well over 30 million people and understandably cut down on China's ability to grow its population base but after 1951 China emerged from all of that chaos mostly unified under the single strongly centralized government of the Chinese Communist party and so a long era of relative peace and stability as followed ever since with the Civil War remaining between the main land in Taiwan staying a cold one for now during times of War chaos and uncertainty people are less hopeful about their future and less likely to have children conversely during times of General peace and stability people are much more hopeful about their future and more likely to have children and so a baby boom took off in China following the conclusion of the Civil War in 1949 that is similarly analogous to the baby booms that also happened in post-war Europe and North America over just a 25-year period between 1950 and 1975 China's population completely skyrocketed by nearly 66 percent as the country added in around 364 million people and that's even after including the period of the great Chinese famine which lasted between 1959 and 1961 and that claimed the lives of anywhere between 15 and 55 million people in the country wherein China saw its final two years of population declined until the 21st century in 1960 and 61. after the famine ended China's Baby Boom gen generation entered into the world during a period from 1963 to 1975. when there were more than 20 million Birds taking place within China every single one of those years by 1970 the average Chinese woman was still having 6.1 children each at the same time when American and German women were only having an average of 2.3 this led to widespread fears within the Chinese Communist Party leadership at the time that China was facing a massive and endemic overpopulation problem that would [ __ ] the country's future as the government would struggle to care and provide for so many new people thus in order to combat the perceived Specter of overpopulation the Chinese Communist Party introduced the later longer fewer campaign in 1973. it raised the legal age of marriage in the country up to 23 for women and 25 for men strongly encouraged the three-year waiting period between births and restricted the amount of children to only two per family with penalties that would be applied to people who failed to comply the policy ultimately proved to be very successful very quickly as the average birth rate of 6.1 children per woman in China in 1970 crashed down to 2.7 children per woman only a decade later in 1980 but 2.7 births per woman was still well above the replacement ratio of 2.1 children per woman meaning that China's population was continuing to grow despite the later longer fewer campaign the government felt that the policy hadn't gone far enough to curb China's inevitable future as a vastly overpopulated State and so it was followed up with an now well-known one child policy that was launched Nationwide across China in 1980. a policy which strictly limited Urban couples in the country to only being allowed to have a single child the policy was slightly relaxed by the mid-1980s to allow ethnic minority groups in the country and rural families to have up to two children but only under the condition that their firstborn child was a girl because of widespread cultural preferences in China for boys who were viewed as the ones that would take care of their parents in old age the one child child policy led to decades worth of well-documented gender selective abortions of female pregnancies and girls passed up for adoption so the couples could try again for their preferred only male child a practice that became so widespread following the adoption of the one child policy that it has created numerous demographic consequences for China today in the 21st century it'll be difficult to reverse one study published back in 2015 and the population and development review suggests that there are around 62 million missing women and girls in China today who would have otherwise been born or not adopted by foreigners had the one child policy never been enacted and as a consequence China's population today has a lopsided gender ratio where there were probably somewhere around 35 million more men than there are women and about 17 and a half million more men than there are women in the 20 to 40 age range who are considered potentially marriageable which implies that around 17 and a half million young men in China will simply never be able able to find a woman to marry and start a family with unless they search abroad further as a result of decades worth of the government's intervention to crush the national birth rate births indeed began to plummet in China from the 1990s a decade into the one child policy the fertility reign in China had already dropped to just 1.5 children per woman and as of 2020 it has fallen to a historic low of only 1.3 children per woman this means that China's birth rate has been well well beneath the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman that is required to keep the population stable for decades now pretty much ever since the 1990s by the 2010s the Chinese Communist Party leadership began to recognize that the country was beginning to tip from the Panic of overpopulation that gripped them in the 1970s and 80s to the new and opposite problem of depopulation and terminal demographic decline in 2013 the one child policy was slightly relaxed to allow any parents in the country who themselves were only children to have a second child child regardless of gender then finally in 2016 after the past 36 years of being on the books in China the one child policy was officially ended and all couples in the country were allowed to begin having two children again and then just a few years later in 2021 recognizing the severity of the problems their policies in the 70s and 80s had created the government rolled out the new and current three-child policy allowing and even encouraging with tax incentives all Chinese families to have up to three children but these recent policies are for the most part too little and too late for the country a fact that becomes much more obvious when you take a look at this China's current population pyramid that tracks the ages of all the 1.4 billion people who lived in the country Circa 2020 note the huge bulge in China's population of people roughly between the ages of 45 and 60. the baby boom generation of China that I mentioned earlier born after the Great Famine between 1961 and 1975. this is the largest cohort of China's age group they are all beginning right wait now to enter in a mass retirement as they age into their 60s with significantly fewer amounts of young people beneath them who can support them in demography there is the concept of the working age population made up of people between 15 and 64. any younger than that are children who aren't really working jobs and contributing to the economy and any older or mostly retirees who are also no longer really working jobs and contributing to the economy and then even further there is the prime age population the age of citizens who are working the hardest earning the most incomes and paying the most taxes which are people between the ages of 25 and 54. the higher the percentage of the overall population that this age group represents within a country the generally stronger potential that country's economy has and conversely the higher the percentage of people over 64 in retirement ages known as the old age dependency ratio the less potential that country's economy has because you just have more people in retirement who are no longer contributing to the economy and consuming more resources to support themselves in old age China's working age population of people between 15 and 64 already peaked back in 2016 while China's prime age population of people aged between 25 and 54 peaked even earlier more than a decade ago back in 2011. China's old age dependency ratio the percentage of the population over the age of 64 in retirement has been steadily increasing every single year since 2016. so as China's population keeps declining in overall terms the ratio of China's remaining population will increasingly become older and older and as more die from old age and enter retirement there are fewer and fewer young people left to take their place this means that ever since 2016 China has faced an ever-increasing shortage of workers with every passing year as more and more people enter into retirement age and unless China is able to attract significant immigration from abroad to replace those workers the country now faces a permanently decreasing amount of Labor with every passing year it will steadily result in increasing costs for scarcer Chinese labor and make Chinese manufacturing increasingly less competitive and inflationary and it's doubtful that China will actually be capable of attracting significant immigration because China has the lowest levels of immigrants of any mostly developed country in the world today Germany and the United States France the UK Italy and other countries have all largely solved their own declining birth rate Problems by encouraging millions of young migrants from abroad to relocate to their countries and assume many of the jobs of the Aging populations have retired from and even countries that are less well known for immigration like Russia South Korea and Japan all still have significantly higher ratios of immigrants than China has which is only at about 0.1 percent of their overall population China has virtually no modern history of large-scale immigration and unless something radical changes in the country this is likely to remain the case and that means that China's rapidly aging and shrinking population are set to become a major drag on the Chinese economy going forward for the next several decades states to come a similar situation to what will come in China has already played out its course in Japan in both demographic and economic terms China appears in a lot of ways to be around 30 years ahead of Japan back in 1950 Japan had a massive young population at the bottom of their population pyramid with a median age of only 21 compared to America's 29 just like how China had 30 years later in 1980. Japan then benefited tremendously from decades worth of explosive economic growth that even outpaced growth in the United States as this bulge of hyper productive young people moved their way through the overall population pyramid and became an increasingly larger percentage of the overall Japanese population the GDP per capita in Japan skyrocketed from only 16 percent of the levels in the United States in 1960 to 154 of it 35 years later in 1995. fears were rampant in Wall Street in the 1980s and early 90s that the Japanese economy was seemingly destined to overtake Americas as the largest in the world and the closest it got was in 1995 when the Japanese economy was about 73 the size of Americas a similar ratio to China's and around 76 percent of the U.S economy today in 2023 but as Japan rapidly developed across that time Japan's birth rate also began rapidly declining alongside it and by the early 1990s that around the same time as Japan's GDP per capita peaked Japan's prime age working population also peaked at roughly the same time Japan's median age surpassed America's median age and ever since 1995 the percentage of elderly people in Japan older than 64 has been growing as a larger percentage of the overall population consequently Japan's GDP per capita has steadily decreased nearly every single year since then and Japan's economy has remained largely stagnant for the nearly 30 years of History ever since as of 2022 the Japanese GDP is still smaller than it was 20 seven years before back in 1995 as Japan's overall population has continually grown older and entered into its own state of continuous decline that began back in 2008 that has lasted ever since China's demographic and economic experiences are increasingly seeming to almost mirror this process that already took place in Japan in 1980 China had a massive young population at the bottom of their population pyramid and a median age of only 21 compared to America's 29. exactly like how Japan had in 1950. China then experienced decades worth of explosive economic growth buoyed by this Rising tide of young and highly productive workers Rising through the population pyramid and becoming an Ever increasingly higher percentage of the overall Chinese population it was during this period from 1980 onwards through roughly the present that China became known as the world's Factory a time period in which Chinese labor was abundant and wages were cheap the time period in which China's Global competitiveness as a manufacturing hub was unmatched anywhere in the world because of its massive and cheap labor force but China's birth rate also crashed during this time period And so by 2011 China's prime age labor force peaked and then began declining as an overall percentage of the population in 2012. well China's working age population aged 15 to 64 peaked in 2015 and then began steadily declining in 2016. similar to how Japan's began shrinking back in 1995 and partially as a result the growth rate of GDP in China has already begun to decelerate from the seven percent that was seen in 2015 at the peak to as little as 3 percent in 2022 as China's old age dependency ratio continues to increase and the working age population continues to shrink Chinese manufacturing the literal backbone of the Chinese economy will continue declining in competitiveness as the labor pool grows more scarce and wages rise to compensate creating more inflationary pressure on companies and countries that rely on Chinese manufacturing that will tremendously benefit other countries in the world like India and Mexico whose economies still have a lot of room to develop and who have massive young populations right now at the bottom of their population pyramids that are still growing and that will surge through their populations over the next several decades as they enter into their Prime working and earning years India and Mexico are therefore probably the most well-poised countries in the world to supplant China's increasingly less competitive manufacturing industry by 2030 China's median age will grow to be about five and a half years older than Americas and by 2033 China's old age dependency ratio of people older than 64 will also finally begin exceeding Americas the growth rate of China's GDP is thus generally expected to fall beneath America's growth rate sometime between 2031 and 2035 and then it'll probably never be capable of catching back up again just like Japan's China's economy is thus demographically speaking already peaked just like Japan's peaked back in the mid-1990s and beginning sometime in the early 2030s China's economy will probably begin stagnating just like Japan's did in the face of continued growth in America and as China's population ages China's available Manpower fit for military service will likewise continue declining as well China's demographic decline from the 2030s onwards will be more of a gradual process than something that will just happen overnight China will most likely retain its position as the world's second largest economy for decades more to come but there also exists an obviously huge gap in between China's waning demographic and economic strengths to come and beijing's own ultimate geopolitical objectives like finishing the Chinese Civil War once and for all by finally establishing its political control over the island of Taiwan from the Republic of China's government the Strategic calculus involved in accomplishing this goal and realizing that its strengths will begin declining relative to its rivals in the near future may lead to China China's leadership becoming susceptible to a more aggressive foreign policy in the near term that includes strategic miscalculations and misjudgments in a highly similar way to the path that Russia has ultimately taken after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 Russia has faced an aging and declining population nearly every single year of its existence ever since as military planners in the Kremlin realize that their population was in a state of terminal Decline and that their demographic strengths would be weaker in the future than they were in the present the Russian government began adopting an increasingly aggressive foreign policy as it sought to accomplish its foreign policy goals of restoring Authority across the area of the former Soviet Union before it was demographically too late for them to do so culminating in the invasion of Georgia in 2008 the first invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea in 2014 the intervention in Syria in 2015 and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. the foreign policy calculus within Beijing is now becoming highly similar to how it's been in Russia since the mid 2000s China's population is now set to be declining every single year for the next several decades more to come the longer the Chinese Communist Party waits to act militarily on its ultimate foreign policy objective of establishing control over Taiwan the harder it will be for them to do so as their economy and Manpower reserves dwindle in the face of the american-led alliance Network that will likely oppose any Invasion attempt the Chinese government has never renounced their right to use Force to bring Taiwan under their control as Chinese president Xi Jinping himself publicly stated during the October 2022 twice a decade Chinese Communist Party National Congress during which he stated Taiwan is China's Taiwan resolving the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese a matter that must be resolved by the Chinese we will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort but we will never promise to renounce the use of force and we reserve of the option of taking all measures necessary there likely exists a narrow window of opportunity in which the People's Republic of China will enjoy the highest likelihood of success during an attempted invasion of Taiwan and it is between 2027 and 2031. that is because in 2027 the people's Liberation Army or pla will experience its 100th anniversary of founding and finish its scheduled modernization and reform plan set to ideally transform it into a fully capable modern military force in order for China to be victorious during any Invasion attempt of Taiwan The Invasion has to be carried out as rapidly as possible across the Taiwan Strait in order to deny any potential foreign interference from America Japan and others taking place that would tilt the balance of power the Chinese armed forces have to be ready and extensively prepared for a lightning operation to ideally win and subjugate Taiwan before any foreign intervention can be made against them and this is why the armed forces have to be fully reformed in modern organized first by 2027 Xi Jinping will almost certainly be awarded a fourth term as China's president by the next party Congress that same year in 2027 and then in 2031 he will be turning 78 years old which is the average life expectancy in China 2032 will also Mark the next National Party Congress and she will be under pressure by then nearing 80 to have shown results and leave behind a legacy and by then in the early to mid-2030s China's population will be rapidly declining and aging and the Chinese economy will probably be in stagnating and growing slower than Americas a problem that will persist from then throughout the rest of the 21st century if China is really going to end up invading Taiwan then the best opportunity for it and for she himself to do so will have to be between 2027 when the pla finishes their scheduled reforms and modernization in 2031 before she personally grows too old and the Chinese demographic time bomb really begins setting off if they wait too long past that point the best opportunity they will ever have to invade will be lost and they may never be able to militarily force Taiwan into the People's Republic of China ever again now having met a lot of real-life lore 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Channel: RealLifeLore

Views: 3,290,435

Keywords: real life lore, real life lore maps, real life lore geography, real life maps, world map, world map is wrong, world map with countries, world map real size, map of the world, world geography, geography, geography (field of study), facts you didn’t know

Id: KiaukPUV6Hg

Length: 30min 19sec (1819 seconds)

Published: Fri Jul 07 2023